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NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Billionaire hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb sees room for Apple's (AAPL.O), opens new tab stock price to climb, especially if the technology company successfully harnesses artificial intelligence for its iOS mobile operating system.

"Despite the stock’s recent strong appreciation, we see room for significant upside ahead as the magnitude of this new AI opportunity surprises," Loeb wrote to his investors in a letter seen by Reuters on Friday. Third Point built a position in Apple in April, Loeb wrote.

Loeb, whose firm oversees some $11 billion in assets, wrote that Apple was already one of the firm's top five winners during the second quarter when its TP Offshore Fund gained 1.8%. During the first half, the fund returned nearly 10%.

Apple, Loeb wrote, had been "under-owned" by institutional investors who feared the company might become an "AI loser." But Third Point has a different view, noting "AI-related demand could drive a step change improvement in Apple's revenue and earnings over the next few years."

Demand for newer iPhones will grow as Apple Intelligence features will not be backwards-compatible and Apple's App Store will likely be the primary distribution platform for new consumer-focused AI apps, the letter said.

Si de plus en plus d’édiles de communes prisées appliquent une majoration de la taxe d’habitation, celle-ci n’a que peu d’effets sur les tensions induites sur le marché, notamment à cause de son taux très faible.

La décision avait été prise à l’unanimité. A Saint-Malo, ville pittoresque de bord de mer en Ille-et-Vilaine confrontée à une pénurie de logements, le conseil municipal avait institué sans états d’âme, le 21 septembre 2023, une « surtaxe » sur les résidences secondaires. « Notre problème est que le taux de résidences secondaires a beaucoup progressé ces dernières années et dépasse aujourd’hui 26 %, tandis que nous rencontrons des difficultés pour loger les habitants permanents, justifie aujourd’hui Gilles Lurton, le maire (divers droite) de Saint-Malo. Nous voulons donc enrayer cette dynamique. »

Depuis 2015, la loi permettait déjà à certaines communes d’appliquer une majoration de la taxe d’habitation pour les résidences secondaires, mais un décret publié mi-2023 a largement étendu le périmètre des villes autorisées à manier cet outil fiscal, à partir du 1er janvier 2024.

Les communes devaient auparavant appartenir à une zone d’urbanisation continue de plus de 50 000 habitants, mais dans le nouveau décret, ce verrou a sauté, et les petites villes touristiques, les stations balnéaires ou de ski peuvent désormais « surtaxer ».

Et nombre de maires confrontées à un marché immobilier en tension ont saisi cette possibilité pour sévir contre le développement exponentiel des résidences secondaires. Saint-Malo donc, mais aussi Bonifacio (Corse-du-Sud), Hossegor (Landes), Chamonix (Haute-Savoie) ou Saint-Tropez (Var).

66 % des logements à Quiberon

Une étude de la direction générale des finances publiques, publiée en juin, montre que la surtaxe a le vent en poupe : 1 461 communes ont institué une majoration de taxe d’habitation en 2024, contre 308 en 2023, soit une multiplication par plus de quatre. Désormais, 40 % des communes autorisées se saisissent de cette possibilité, alors qu’elles n’étaient que 27 % en 2023. Et parmi elles, plus d’une sur trois a voté cette année le taux maximum de majoration autorisé par la loi, soit 60 % de la part communale de la taxe d’habitation. Signe que la crise du logement inquiète de plus en plus les élus, qui n’hésitent plus à passer par la contrainte, et ce quelle que soit leur couleur politique.

Là où les tensions se font particulièrement aiguës, le recours à la « surtaxe » devient massif. C’est en particulier le cas en Bretagne, où les résidences secondaires représentent 12 % de l’ensemble des logements, et bien davantage encore sur le littoral : 66 % à Quiberon (Morbihan), 41 % à Cancale (Ille-et-Vilaine) ou 44 % à Crozon (Finistère). Dans cette région, l’élargissement du périmètre depuis le début de l’année atteint 75 % des communes concernées.

Et près de 60 % en Nouvelle-Aquitaine, où le nombre de villes appliquant la majoration a bondi de 42 à 137 entre 2023 et 2024. Parmi elles, Bayonne, qui l’a instaurée dès que la loi l’a autorisée, en 2015. « Nous sommes au taquet, au taux de maximum de 60 % depuis l’an dernier », précise Jean-René Etchegaray, président (Renaissance) de la communauté d’agglomération Pays basque et maire de Bayonne.

Au Pays basque, où le foncier est rare, les résidences secondaires et les locations de type Airbnb nombreuses, « tous les moyens sont bons pour rectifier le tir, justifie l’élu. Et toutes les communes de l’agglomération se sont un peu suivies, on ne voulait pas que le phénomène des résidences secondaires se déplace chez les voisins ». Avec quel résultat ? L’édile constate que le nombre de résidences secondaires a continué de croître, de près de 20 % en dix ans.

Les propriétaires « ont fait de l’optimisation fiscale »

En septembre 2023, les chercheurs Antoine Belgodere et Georges Casamatta se sont penchés sur la surtaxe dans leur étude « L’imposition des résidences secondaires : effets de la réforme française de 2015 » et en tirent également un bilan décevant. A première vue, le nombre de résidences secondaires a bien reculé après la mise en place d’une surtaxe. « L’écart entre les communes avec et sans majoration de la taxe d’habitation s’est creusé en moyenne de l’ordre de 10 % : le nombre de résidences secondaires a reculé de 5 % dans le premier cas et progressé de 5 % dans le second, résume Antoine Belgodere. Toutefois, si la taxe avait eu l’effet escompté, les prix de l’immobilier dans les communes concernées auraient dû baisser, et ça n’a pas été le cas. »

Aucun mouvement de vente significatif de résidences secondaires n’a par ailleurs été relevé. Autant d’indices laissant penser que les propriétaires « ont fait de l’optimisation fiscale : ils ont conservé leurs deux résidences et ont interverti la principale et la secondaire pour échapper à la taxe », poursuit le maître de conférences en science économique à l’université de Corse.

Pour les deux chercheurs, l’inefficacité de l’imposition des résidences secondaires tient au très faible taux de la taxe, même lorsque la majoration est portée à son maximum, c’est-à-dire 60 %. La surtaxe ne s’est en effet élevée en moyenne qu’à 250 euros par logement taxé en 2019 (120 euros en 2016), précise leur étude. « Il y a un effet de seuil en matière de taxe, si elle reste anecdotique, elle n’entraîne pas de changement de comportement », conclut M. Belgodere.

Paris aussi concernée

A Bayonne, la surtaxe moyenne atteint 720 euros par an et elle va rapporter un peu plus de 1 million d’euros en 2024. « De quoi booster notre politique du logement », dit son maire. A Saint-Malo, la majoration va « de 250 à 900 euros selon la taille de la maison. Ce n’est pas dissuasif, reconnaît Gilles Lurton, mais c’est notre politique d’ensemble, avec aussi la mise en place de quotas pour les meublés touristiques, qui permettra de stopper la croissance des résidences secondaires ».

La capitale s’affole, elle aussi, de l’espace gagné par les résidences secondaires en quelques décennies, passées de quelque 30 000 au tournant des années 1970 à près de 140 000 aujourd’hui (soit 10 % des logements). « On en compte chaque année 4 000 de plus. On court le risque que, dans quatre ou cinq ans, les logements privés à louer à Paris, en chute libre, deviennent moins nombreux que les résidences secondaires et logements vacants réunis », s’alarme Jacques Baudrier, adjoint à la maire de Paris (Parti communiste français), chargé du logement. La ville applique la surtaxe maximale. Elle va lui rapporter 120 millions d’euros cette année, et coûter près de 900 euros, en moyenne, aux propriétaires de résidence secondaire.

« Il y a urgence à ce que le futur gouvernement augmente cette surtaxe pour libérer des logements à Paris et en Ile-de-France. Il faudrait que la majoration soit de + 300 % pour avoir un effet. A 6 000 euros, ça commencerait à faire réfléchir un paquet de gens », argue M. Baudrier. Confrontés aux mêmes difficultés d’accès au logement de la population locale, des pays voisins ont opté pour des solutions radicales. En Suisse, les communes dont le taux de résidences secondaires dépasse le quota de 20 % refusent l’autorisation de toute nouvelle résidence secondaire.

Despite it being summer, this week was rich with announcements. Let’s dive in.

No two businesses are the same, and that’s good news: As we saw again this week, it opens up space for companies to try opposite approaches, join forces or challenge leaders.

Focus or not: In one of India’s recent largest tech M&As, food delivery heavyweight Zomato disbursed $244.1 million to acquire the entertainment ticketing business of Paytm, which has been refocusing on its fintech core. In contrast, Zomato is diversifying in an effort to become a one-stop destination for dining and entertainment options.

Firefighting: FireHydrant, a startup that helps site reliability engineers find, resolve and prevent issues, acquired competitor Blameless as a stepping stone toward end-to-end incident management. FireHydrant did not share the purchase price, but it indicated that it also got an undisclosed amount of additional funding at the time of the acquisition.

Busy schedule: Dropbox has acquired AI-powered scheduling tool Reclaim.ai. Founded in 2019, the startup plans to continue developing its product following the acquisition. In a video, Reclaim.ai’s founders said the whole team of 22 people is joining Dropbox; financial terms weren’t disclosed.

New launches: A new generation of rocket companies is rising to challenge SpaceX. As TechCrunch space and defense reporter Aria Alamalhodaei noted, SpaceX being the undisputed leader in launch “has not cowed a growing number of competitors, who say they can bring much-needed supply and competitive pressure to the market, something that benefits the industry at large.”

Large funding rounds this week weren’t just about AI; there was some open source, blockchain, construction tech and defense tech mixed in, too.

Up arrows: Grafana Labs, whose dashboards help enterprises visualize and analyze data from their infrastructure services, is now valued at over $6 billion following what the open source company described as an extension to its 2022 Series D round. The new funding comes from a primary and secondary transaction led by Lightspeed Venture Partners and worth $270 million, with proceeds going to the open source company and some of its stockholders.

IP vs. AI: PIP Labs, the parent company behind startup Story, raised an $80 million Series B round from a16z’s crypto division and others to build an “IP blockchain” that will help content owners track and monetize IP in the age of AI.

Military ops: Virginia-based startup Defcon AI has raised a $44 million seed round led by Bessemer Venture Partners to help the U.S. Department of Defense optimize logistics. Having earned around $15 million in government contracts so far, the company is in the process of certifying its software to handle classified, secret information.

Building blocks: Trunk Tools, a startup that provides automation tools to organize unstructured construction documentation, has raised a $20 million Series A funding round led by Redpoint. The company will use the cash to grow its team and develop new services such as its recently launched construction worker incentive program, CEO Sarah Buchner told TechCrunch.

In lieu of cash: Fintech startup Bolt hasn’t yet closed the $450 million funding round that its eyebrow-raising letter to investors alluded to. The London Fund CEO Ashesh Shah gave more context to TechCrunch on why his firm might be participating, and how: with marketing credits, at least partly.

Planetary health: According to an SEC filing, life sciences investor BEVC is raising a $25 million fund aimed at climate-related startups. This would mean following in the footsteps of RA Capital and Flagship Pioneering, which similarly broadened their remit beyond human health.

Getting acqui-hired is more frequent than publicized, and it isn’t always a bad deal, founders and investors told TechCrunch. In the current market, the alternative would be to run out of money and shut down. Getting nabbed by another company “is often not as poor an outcome for founders and key staff as it initially seems,” TechCrunch’s Marina Temkin found out. By joining under these circumstances, they typically leapfrog new hires in terms of pay and equity, which is an incentive to remain on board.

The Takeaway

One of the largest backers of TikTok’s parent, ByteDance, is considering selling part of its stake as geopolitical and regulatory storms cloud the company’s path to an IPO.

Everest Group, at around $378, trades for just six times estimated 2024 earnings of $62 a share It has one of the lowest price/earnings ratios in the S&P 500 index.

For insurers, it’s all about getting appropriately paid for risk. And for investors, reinsurer Everest Group looks like a risk worth taking.

Everest is the world’s fourth-largest property and casualty reinsurer, which means it sells insurance to other insurers, against many types of risks including catastrophes like hurricanes and earthquakes. It has an impressive record of growth and profitability in recent years. The company, along with other reinsurers, is capitalizing on a “hard market,” or a period of higher premiums on catastrophe and other policies. Net written premiums are expected to rise 12% this year to $15 billion, double the 2019 level.

The shares of the Bermuda-based company reflect little of that. The stock, at around $378, trades for just six times estimated 2024 earnings of $62 a share and for less than 1.2 times book value of $328 a share on June 30. Everest has one of the lowest price/earnings ratios in the S&P 500 index.

“It’s not going to sell at a six multiple forever,” says Scott Black, the founder and president of Delphi Investments and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.

Black, whose firm holds Everest stock, says the low valuation is inconsistent with the company’s returns. Financial companies with rock-bottom valuations like Everest normally have weak returns. But Everest has put up nearly 20% return on equity so far this year after a similar return last year, higher than what is being generated by most banks and insurers. It’s even higher than Berkshire Hathaway, which has a return on equity of less than 10% from operating profits. Everest’s dividend yield is 2%.

Everest, like all insurers, earns money in two ways: insurance underwriting and investments. The company has been a solid underwriter, with a “combined ratio”—losses and expenses as a percentage of premiums—of about 90% in the first half of 2024, which corresponds to a 10% underwriting profit margin. Its three-year goal is to continue to operate at a similar level of profitability.

Investment income has also been rising and is now running at more than a $2 billion annual rate as the company reinvests proceeds from maturing low-rate bonds into higher-yielding securities. The portfolio has a high average credit quality of double-A and an average maturity of about four years, which limits rate risk.

Under its CEO Juan Andrade, who has been at the helm for more than four years, Everest has reduced its risk from natural disasters. It has also built up its primary insurance business, which is viewed as superior to reinsurance. The company now has 75% of its revenue from reinsurance and 25% in traditional insurance.

A veteran of industry leader Chubb, Andrade, 58, said on the company’s second-quarter earnings conference call that Everest is capitalizing “on opportunities where market conditions are most attractive and where we can achieve sustained profitable growth.”

He added the company is delivering “industry-leading financial returns” as measured by growth in book value excluding changes in the value of Everest’s investment portfolio.

KBW analyst Meyer Shields projects that book value could top $350 a share at year-end 2024 and hit $410 a share by the end of 2025. He sees earnings rising about 10% next year to $67.45 and $74 in 2026 as profitability increases.

“It’s a well-managed company and the valuation doesn’t reflect that,” Shields says. He has an Outperform rating and $438 price target.

The stock, however, is up only 7% this year, trailing those of peers such as Arch Capital Group and Renaissance Holdings, which have risen about 41% and 25%, respectively, in 2024.

Everest’s low valuation and lagging stock appear to reflect a few factors. The company surprised Wall Street by adding to its loss reserves in the fourth quarter, and it pushed back the timing of a financial target for its insurance segment when it reported its second-quarter results. It now expects to generate a 90% to 92% combined ratio in that segment in 2025 rather than this year, when it is expected to be in the 93% area. The company has cited the expenses related to its international expansion. Investors, Shields says, “are waiting for a clean quarter” without any issues.

Then there are concerns that the current hard market for insurance pricing will erode. And reinsurers have smaller moats, or competitive rings, around their business than many other financial companies, given capital from alternative sources, like catastrophe bonds, that can enter the market.

Black says investors are also fearful of hurricanes and other storms, which are most likely in the current quarter. Climate change appears to be exacerbating that risk.

The company says its exposure to Southeast U.S. wind risk, stemming mainly from hurricanes, has fallen since 2017 to 8.4% of equity for a storm that has a 1 in 100 chance of occurring in a given year, down from 11.6%. If no major storms occur in the current quarter, the stock could get a lift.

Shields says that Everest could generate a double-digit return on equity even with a major storm. That’s due to higher catastrophe insurance rates and the tighter terms on its policies.

Everest is aiming to post compound growth in total shareholder returns of 17% annually—mostly stemming from higher book value—from 2024 through 2026. If that happens, the stock could be 50% higher by the end of 2026. And downside seems limited given Everest’s steadily rising book value.

You gotta like those odds.

Another slow week with only three companies raising rounds of more than $100 million. In fact, you didn’t even need to raise $50 million to make the list this week. Investors certainly put their money everywhere, from biotech to productivity tools, but they didn’t shell out a lot.

1. Grafana Labs, $270M, analytics: It does seem like companies are raising extensions of rounds from longer and longer ago. This week, New York-based Grafana Labs raised $270 million in a mix of growth equity and a secondary offering — so some money went to the company and some to shareholders. The company described it as an extension of its $240 million Series D in 2022. The new round was led by Lightspeed Venture Partners and values the company at $6 billion. Grafana’s open-source software platform helps monitor and visualize data. Founded in 2014, the company has now raised more than $805 million, according to Crunchbase data.

2. TickPick, $250M, ticketing: Ticketing startups are rare on this list, but this week TickPick landed a $250 million investment from Brighton Park Capital. While the ticketing space is competitive, the New York-based startup has increased its sales 8x through the past three years and now sells nearly $1 billion of tickets. TickPick is a ticket marketplace to buy, bid on and sell. It tries to differentiate itself by offering a no-fee pricing model so customers know what they are paying. Excessive fee add ons when buying tickets have frustrated many consumers for years, even leading to lawsuits against other marketplaces. Founded in 2011, the company has raised $290 million, per Crunchbase.

3. Pathalys Pharma, $105M, biotech: Raleigh, North Carolina-based Pathalys Pharma isn’t new to this list — it topped it early last year. This time the biopharma startup raised $105 million led by TCG Crossover. The company specializes in late stages of developing treatments for kidney disease. Founded in 2021, Pathalys has raised $266 million to date, per Crunchbase.

4. Fortera, $85M, climate: San Jose, California-based Fortera locked up an $85 million Series C from several investors, including the likes of Khosla Ventures and Temasek. The startup has developed a method to manufacture low-carbon cement within the existing production infrastructure. It plans to use the money to put its technology into existing cement manufacturing plants, with the goal of producing a “green cement” with 70% less carbon dioxide than ordinary varieties. Founded in 2019, the company has raised $115 million, per Crunchbase.

5. Story Protocol, $80M, blockchain: With AI creating new issues regarding theft of intellectual property, San Francisco-based startup Story Protocol raised an $80 million Series B to try to solve the increasing problem. The new round was led by Andreessen Horowitz, with participation from Polychain and others. Founded in 2022, Story has raised $140 million to date, per the company. The new round reportedly values the company at $2.25 billion. IP theft is nothing new, but the rise of AI has heightened the stakes as generative AI models are ingesting copyrighted material — without permission — to train and learn. Story’s blockchain network allows IP owners to store their IP on the platform, embedding terms to use it — such as licensing fees — into smart contracts. Basically, the blockchain aims to ensure owners are compensated when their IP is used.

6. Openwater, $54M, healthcare: Newark, California-based Openwater, a developer of a medical technology system that treats diseases at the cellular level, reportedly raised $54 million. The new round brings Openwater’s funding to $100 million, per the company. Its investors include Khosla Ventures and Bold Capital Partners, among others.

7. Opkey $47M, productivity tools: Dublin, California-based Opkey, an AI platform to help organizations test for enterprise resource planning software, closed a $47 million Series B led by PeakSpan Capital. Founded in 2015, the company has raised $57 million, per Crunchbase.

8. XII Medical, $45M, biotech: Union City, California-based XII Medical, a clinical-stage medical company developing therapies for sleep apnea, closed a $45 million Series B led by Omega Funds. Founded in 2017, the company has raised $75 million, per Crunchbase.

9. Defcon AI, $44M, defense: McLean, Virginia-based Defcon AI, which developed an AI-powered decision tool for military logistics planning, raised a $44 million seed round led by Bessemer Venture Partners. Founded in 2022, this is the company’s first disclosed funding, per Crunchbase.

10. AstroForge, $40M, space: Huntington Beach, California-based asteroid mining startup AstroForge locked up a $40 million Series A led by Nova Threshold. Founded in 2021, the company says it has raised $55 million.

Agency investigators asked people involved in the trials whether side effects went unreported

The Food and Drug Administration is ramping up its investigation of the clinical trials that tested an Ecstasy-based therapy, after the agency earlier rejected the application for its approval.

FDA investigators this week interviewed four people about the clinical trials sponsored by company Lykos Therapeutics, people familiar with the matter said. Investigators asked about whether side effects went unreported.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that the Lykos studies missed serious side effects in study subjects, including suicidal thoughts.

Lykos didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

The FDA said it couldn’t discuss ongoing investigations.

The agency had said it was looking into allegations of trial misconduct and would incorporate findings into its decision on Lykos’s Ecstasy-based therapy. Earlier this month, the FDA rejected the therapy’s use, combined with therapy, to help people suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD.

The rejection hasn’t ended the FDA’s probe. This week, members of the agency’s Office of Regulatory Affairs, which oversees inspections, spoke with at least four people with knowledge of the trials, according to the people familiar with the matter.

At a meeting in Baltimore, a person treated by Lykos therapists discussed with the FDA investigators subjects including missed adverse events and the therapy techniques used in the clinical trials, said Neşe Devenot, a Johns Hopkins University senior lecturer in the university’s writing program and a board member of Psymposia, a nonprofit critical of Lykos.

Devenot and another person with knowledge of the clinical trials also went to the meeting and spoke to FDA investigators.

Another person familiar with the Lykos clinical trials was also interviewed by FDA investigators this week in North Carolina. The person was interviewed by officials from the Biomedical Research Monitoring Program, a subdivision of the regulatory-affairs office that seeks to ensure the quality and integrity of data submitted to FDA. The person shared information on the conduct of the trials, including the suicidality of a study subject that didn’t get reported.

The FDA’s rejection of Lykos’s drug midomafetamine, also known as MDMA or Ecstasy, was a blow to long-running efforts to decriminalize psychedelic drugs and to PTSD patients looking for more effective treatments.

“There are significant limitations to the data contained in the application that prevent the agency from concluding that this drug is safe and effective for the proposed indication,” an FDA spokeswoman said after the drug was rejected.

Lykos said the agency had asked it to complete a new clinical trial in order to get approval and that it planned to ask the agency to reconsider its decision.

The day after the rejection, the scientific journal Psychopharmacology retracted three papers related to early Lykos clinical trials of the Ecstasy-based therapy, saying the journal editors learned of “protocol violations amounting to unethical conduct” by the researchers.

Lykos said it would cut 75% of its staff but that it would try to resubmit its application for the drug therapy. Lykos also said Rick Doblin, a longtime psychedelics advocate and founder of the nonprofit that created Lykos, had left the company’s board.