>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 31st of March 2026 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Air Liquide Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Beiersdorf Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT 80 euros
* Borregaard Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Croda Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Diageo Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 1,650 pence (+)
* Domino's Pizza Group Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Enagas Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 16.50 euros
* Helleniq Energy Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 11.20 euros
* INVISIO AB Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 335 kronor
* Jenoptik Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 34 euros (+)
* Neste Price Target Raised to EUR 30 from EUR 24 by Nordea
* PORR Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 41.50 euros
* Raspberry PI Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 460 pence (+)
* Sonova Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 163 Swiss francs
* Suedzucker Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 15 euros
* Vestas Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT 230 kroner

>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Sell at Norne Securities; PT 320 kroner (+)
* Asuntosalkku Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 81 euros (+)
* Barco Cut to Hold at ING; PT 10 euros
* BASF Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Beiersdorf Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 82 euros (+)
* Credit Agricole Cut to Underperform at Autonomous (+)
* Elisa Cut to Sell at Nordea; PT 38 euros
* Fuchs Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Givaudan Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 2,915 Swiss francs
* Givaudan ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $73.50 (+)
* J D Wetherspoon Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 540 pence
* Kemira Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* KWS Saat Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Rockwell Automation Cut to Hold at Jefferies

>>> Initiation
* AstraZeneca Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* Beijer Alma Rated New Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 250 kronor
* Capital Tankers Rated New Buy at Clarksons; PT 165 kroner (+)
* Daimler Truck Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 53 euros
* Daimler Truck ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $31
* DFS Furniture Reinstated Buy at Shore Capital; PT 200 pence (+)
* Fiserv Reinstated Hold at Loop Capital; PT $62
* H&M Rated New Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 170 kronor
* Kier Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT 215 pence
* Mastercard Reinstated Buy at Loop Capital; PT $631
* Nvidia Rated New Add at Caitong Securities
* Paccar Reinstated Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $126
* PayPal Reinstated Hold at Loop Capital; PT $46
* Rheinmetall Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT 1,480 euros
* Traton Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 37 euros
* Visa Reinstated Buy at Loop Capital; PT $387
* Vitrolife Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 110 kronor
* Volvo Reinstated Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 304 kronor
* Volvo ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $32

>>> Call
* Cisco Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $94
* Corning Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $125
* Dell Technologies Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $170
* Enagas Raised at Morgan Stanley After Positive Regulatory Review
* HP Enterprise Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $31
* JPMorgan Analysts See Revenue Upgrades for European Exchanges (+)
* Morgan Stanley Cuts Global Equities to Equal-Weight on Oil Risks
* Porr Gets Clean Sweep of Buys as Oddo BHF Says Value Attractive
* Sonova Raised at JPMorgan, Near End of the Estimate Downgrades
* Tesla’s Price Target Slashed by $100 at Canaccord Genuity (1)

>>> La Lettre — 31 mars 2026 (Casino, Orange,..)

La Lettre — 31 mars 2026 | Résumé bilingue

🇫🇷 FRANÇAIS
[Grande Distribution] Casino : le putsch avorté d'Attestor et Monarch Les fonds créanciers Attestor et Monarch, qui détiennent ensemble ~40 % de la dette de Casino (1,4 Md€ en renégociation), ont tenté de forcer la main à Daniel Kretinsky en démarchant Carrefour, Intermarché, Coopérative U et Lidl pour leur proposer de racheter le groupe s'ils venaient à en prendre le contrôle. L'opération, menée avec l'aide d'Evercore (Andrea Bozzi), a fait un flop. Carrefour — première cible — a refusé, Alexandre Bompard ne souhaitant pas s'aliéner Bercy ni risquer un conflit frontal avec Kretinsky. Les autres enseignes ont également décliné, préférant attendre que Kretinsky assainisse lui-même le groupe. Un nouveau geste de compromis de Kretinsky vers ses créanciers est attendu ce mardi.
[Politique/Industrie] Electrifab : nouveau centre d'expertise pour l'électrification industrielle EDF, Engie, TotalEnergies et plusieurs fédérations professionnelles lancent Electrifab, présenté au salon Global Industrie à Villepinte. Piloté par l'ATEE (Nicolas Fondraz), l'outil vise à accompagner les industriels sur les plans technique et financier. Bercy surveille de près ce projet, qu'il souhaite complémentaire — et non concurrent — à sa plateforme "Je décarbone".
[Parlement européen] Accélérateur industriel de Séjourné : désignation des rapporteurs À l'approche des négociations sur l'IAA (Industrial Acceleration Act), les groupes politiques du Parlement européen désignent leurs rapporteurs fictifs au sein de la commission ITRE. Le PPE a choisi l'Espagnol Raúl de la Hoz Quintano ; les CRE misent sur le Polonais Daniel Obajtek et l'Italien Paolo Borchia (PfE/Bardella) ; les Verts désignent la Belge Sara Matthieu ; S&D devrait nommer Giorgio Gori. Les commissions IMCO et INTA cherchent également à s'associer au texte.
[Lobbying] Loi Sapin II : enquête Ifop sur le regard des lobbyistes À l'occasion des dix ans de la loi Sapin II, l'APAP et l'AFCL commandent à l'Ifop une étude d'opinion auprès des inscrits au registre de la HATVP sur l'usage et l'efficacité du dispositif de transparence. Les pistes de réforme sondées incluent la publication des notes de position, le sourcing des amendements et la transparence des agendas.
[Télécoms] Orange sous pression sur son plan d'actions gratuites pour 1 200 dirigeants Orange soumet à son AG du 19 mai un LTIP triennal 2026-2028 portant sur 0,45 % du capital (~45 M€), soit une moyenne de 37 500 €/leader. Les syndicats (CFE-CGC, CFDT, CGT) et l'AASGO (8 % du capital) contestent la formulation et réclament un retour à l'annualisation. Christel Heydemann, DG, bénéficierait jusqu'à 120 000 actions gratuites sur la période. Le conseil d'administration tranche ce mercredi 1er avril.
[Médias] Challenges : Augustin de Romanet au comité éditorial L'ex-PDG d'ADP et président de Paris Europlace, Augustin de Romanet, rejoint le comité éditorial de Challenges (détenu par LVMH), en remplacement d'Éric Fottorino. Le comité, qui désigne le directeur de la rédaction, pourrait jouer un rôle clé dans les prochaines semaines : Pierre-Henri de Menthon, directeur de la rédaction, envisage d'activer sa clause de cession (deadline : 30 avril). En interne, Thiébault Dromard, rédacteur en chef "entreprises" depuis 2008, se profile comme successeur potentiel.

🇬🇧 ENGLISH
[Retail] Casino: Attestor and Monarch's failed creditor coup Anglo-Saxon credit funds Attestor and Monarch, holding roughly 40% of Casino's €1.4bn debt under renegotiation, attempted to outmanoeuvre majority shareholder Daniel Kretinsky by quietly sounding out rival retailers — Carrefour first and foremost, as well as Intermarché, Coopérative U and Lidl — on buying Casino outright should the funds seize control. The operation, run with Evercore's Andrea Bozzi, fell flat. Carrefour's CEO Alexandre Bompard declined to risk a frontal clash with Kretinsky or antagonise Bercy by teaming up with foreign debt funds. Other chains likewise held back, preferring to wait for Kretinsky's team to complete its own restructuring. A new concession from Kretinsky toward creditors is expected today (Tuesday).
[Politics/Industry] Electrifab: new industrial electrification centre launched EDF, Engie, TotalEnergies and several industry federations are launching Electrifab, unveiled at the Global Industrie trade show in Villepinte. Led by the ATEE (Nicolas Fondraz), the initiative aims to provide technical and financial support to industrial companies on electrification. France's economy ministry is watching closely, hoping the body will complement — rather than compete with — its own "Je décarbone" platform.
[European Parliament] Séjourné's Industrial Accelerator: rapporteurs take shape As negotiations on the Industrial Acceleration Act (IAA) approach, EP political groups are nominating shadow rapporteurs in the influential ITRE committee. The EPP has picked Spain's Raúl de la Hoz Quintano; the ECR is backing Poland's Daniel Obajtek alongside Italy's Paolo Borchia (PfE/Bardella); the Greens have named Belgium's Sara Matthieu; and S&D is expected to appoint Giorgio Gori. The IMCO and INTA committees are also jockeying for associated status.
[Lobbying] Sapin II anniversary: lobbyists surveyed on transparency register On the tenth anniversary of the Sapin II law, the APAP and AFCL have commissioned an Ifop survey targeting HATVP-registered lobbyists to assess how the transparency framework is used and perceived. Reform options under consideration include mandatory publication of position papers, disclosure of amendment sourcing, and calendar transparency.
[Telecoms] Orange faces pushback on free share plan for 1,200 senior managers Orange is putting a three-year LTIP (2026–2028) covering 0.45% of capital (~€45m, averaging €37,500 per "leader") to shareholders at its May 19 AGM. Unions and AASGO (holding 8% of capital) are contesting the terms and pressing for a return to annual plans. CEO Christel Heydemann would receive up to 120,000 free shares under the scheme. The board meets this Wednesday to decide whether to revise the resolution.
[Media] Challenges: Augustin de Romanet joins editorial committee Former ADP CEO and current Paris Europlace chairman Augustin de Romanet is set to join the editorial committee of Challenges (owned by LVMH), filling the seat vacated by Éric Fottorino. The committee's role in appointing the editor-in-chief could prove decisive in coming weeks: incumbent editor Pierre-Henri de Menthon has reportedly assessed his chances of triggering his "cession clause" at better than evens (deadline: 30 April). Internally, Thiébault Dromard, head of the business desk since 2008, is emerging as a potential successor.

>>> What to look at today - 31st of March 2026

Equity-index futures rose and oil pared its gains after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump told aides he’s willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.9%, while those for European shares indicated a 0.4% gain at the open as sentiment improved following the WSJ report. A rebound in Asian shares, however, faded, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping 1% and on track for its worst month since October 2008. West Texas Intermediate pared most of its gains to trade around $103 a barrel as investors bet on easing tensions in the Middle East. The commodity had earlier risen to almost $107 a barrel. Treasuries extended gains and the dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers after the report.  The whipsaw moves followed a weak open for stocks and a jump in oil prices after Iran struck a Kuwaiti crude oil carrier in Dubai.  A US withdrawal from the conflict would help ease tensions and improve prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery whose disruption has driven oil prices higher. Restoring flows from the Middle East would benefit major importers in Asia such as India and China and help alleviate concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth. In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the Strait of Hormuz would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four-to-six weeks, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing administration officials it did not name. Over the past month, Trump has expressed various opinions in public on how to handle the closure of the waterway, part of a larger pattern of giving conflicting goals and objectives for the war overall. He has at times threatened to bomb civilian energy infrastructure if the channel isn’t reopened by a certain date. On other occasions, he has played down the importance of the strait to the US and said its closure is a problem for other nations to solve. After a month of fighting, it’s arguably Iran that has secured the most significant strategic victory — a tightening grip over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So far in March, barely six vessels per day on average have traversed the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world, in either direction. That compares with about 135 a day in normal times. Elsewhere, Treasuries rallied after the Wall Street Journal report, with the benchmark 10-year yield dropping two basis points to 4.33%. The securities had advanced on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed near-term inflation risks from higher energy prices. Gold rose 1% to trade around $4,550 an ounce, while silver jumped 2.7%. Meantime, the trading desk at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said signs of capitulation are starting to emerge among hedge funds, and the systematic community is running out of steam. It anticipates that trend-following investor CTAs will be buyers in every scenario over the next month. US equities did an about-face on Monday, deepening a selloff that spurred the longest weekly losing streak since 2022 amid fears of escalation in the war after more American troops arrived in Iran. The Nasdaq 100 is trading 12% below its October record. The rout was spurred by concern that surging oil prices from the war in the Middle East could choke off economic growth and reignite inflation. The S&P 500 Index stood less than 1% away from a correction. Some investors said the moves were part of the ongoing volatility, rather than a fundamental easing of risk sentiment, until more substantive concessions are made or a clear end to the conflict emerges. US After Hours SPCE +14.7%, PRGS +1.5% higher on earnings; PEPG -48% under pressure after Phase 2 study results; PHR -21.3% sharply lower after earnings

Nikkei -0.82% Hang Seng -0.40% CSI -0.25% Shanghai -0.15% Shenzen -0.90%

Eur$ 1.1470 CNH 6.9161 CNY 6.9102 JPY 159.63 GBP 1.3198 CHF 0.7987 RUB 81.3486 TRY 44.4756 WTI$ 102.74 -0.13% Gold 4,568.80 +0.64% BTC 67,500 +1.30% ETH 2,061 +1.99%

S&P +0.85% Nasdaq +0.84% EuroStoxx +0.68% FTSE +0.15% Dax +0.69% SMI +0.49%

Macro :
- Italy prepares to keep coal power stations open for another decade
- Iran Pushes Houthis on Red Sea Shipping, Officials Say
- Iran Strikes Fully Laden Kuwait Oil Tanker in Dubai Port
- Morgan Stanley Cuts Global Equities to Equal-Weight on Oil Risks
- French and Japanese Leaders to Discuss Hormuz Maritime Security
- Canada to Be Observer in Japan, UK, Italy Fighter Project: Asahi
- Pelham Capital Plans to Raise Money for New Fund: FT
- Just Three Firms Are Driving Europe’s €420 Billion Stock Rout

Keep an eye on :
- AENA SM : Aena Wins Heated Auction to Operate Airport in Rio de Janeiro
- BAG LN : A.G. Barr FY Revenue Meets Estimates
- BAS GY : BASF Pharma Raises Prices For Excipients, Select APIs
- CO FP : Casino FY Adjusted Ebitda EU655m
- CTPNV NA : CTP Signs Dual-Tranche Sustainability-Linked Asian Loan
- DMP GY : Dermapharm Sees 2026 Adjusted Ebitda EU331M to EU341M
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Names Joe Lai APAC Head of Investment Banking
- FGR FP : Mundys Plans to Boost Stake in Channel Tunnel Operator Getlink
- ENGI FP : Engie Wins Orders to Help Protect Brazil’s Grid From Blackouts
- GLPG NA : Galapagos, Gilead to Collaborate on Autoimmune Diseases
- GET FP : Mundys Plans to Boost Stake in Channel Tunnel Operator Getlink
- GIVN SW : Givaudan’s Sales Growth May Continue to Slow, Berenberg Cuts
- HBR LN : Three Harbour Backers Sell After Oil-Price Windfall: ECM Watch
- HOLN SW : Holcim Concludes Acquisition of Cementos Pacasmayo Stake
- KAMBI SS : Kambi Group Signs Long-Term Sportsbook Partnership With PMU
- MC FP : Just Three Firms Are Driving Europe’s €420 Billion Stock Rout
- MAAT FP : Maat Pharma : Trésorerie jusqu'en août prochain
- MKC US : Unilever Nears Deal to Create $60 Billion Food Giant With McCormick -- WSJ
- MRK US : Merck Drug Lowers LDL-C More Than Other Therapies in Study
- META US : Meta, TikTok Flagged for Potential Australia Kids’ Ban Breaches
- META US : Singapore Regulator Issues Letters of Caution to X, TikTok
- BMPS IM : ISS Backs Palermo as Monte Paschi Director, Flags His Experience
- NATU3 BZ : Advent International to Buy Stake of up to 10% in Natura
- HOME SM : Neinor, Stoneshield Partner to Build High-End Houses in Marbella
- NFLX US : Netflix, Eager for More NFL, Is Looking at a Four-Game Package - WSJ
- NDX1 GY : Nordex Group Gets 42 MW Order From Max Boegl in Germany, Order Is for Supply, Installation of Six WInd Turbines
- NOEJ GY : Norma Sees 2026 Adjusted Ebit Margin About 2% to 4%, Est. 4.51%
- NOVOB DC : Just Three Firms Are Driving Europe’s €420 Billion Stock Rout
- NVDA US : Nvidia Stock is Cheap—What That Signals - The Information
- PGHN SW : Partners Group CEO to Move to a Different Role in Next Few Years
- RECSI NO : REC Silicon Extends $110 Million Loan With KEB Hana Bank
- RKLB US : Rocket Lab Gets Regulatory Approval to Buy Mynaric
- SAN FP : Sanofi’s Rezurock Gets EU Approval for Treatment of Chronic GVHD
- SAP GY : Just Three Firms Are Driving Europe’s €420 Billion Stock Rout
- SIE GY : Siemens to Split Up Two Segments in Reorganization: Reuters
- SWON SW : SoftwareONE Sees 2026 Adjusted Ebitda Margin Above 23%
- SPCE US : Virgin Galactic 4Q Revenue Misses Estimates, Virgin Galactic Resumes Space Tourism Sales at $750,000 a Ticket
- Space X IPO : E*Trade in Talks to Lead SpaceX IPO for Small Investors: Reuters
- SPSN SW : Swiss Prime Site Names Martina Moosmann as CFO
- SYNN SW : Syngenta FY Sales Fall 1%, Names Nelson Jiang as New CFO
- TSLA US : Tesla’s Price Target Slashed by $100 at Canaccord Genuity
- UBSG SW : Swiss Lawmakers Signal Compromise on $22b UBS Capital Plan: FT
- UCB BB : UCB’s Kygevvi Approved in EU for Thymidine Kinase 2 Deficiency
- ULVR LN : Unilever Nears Deal to Create $60 Billion Food Giant With McCormick -- WSJ
- VACN SW : VAT Cuts 1Q Net Sales Forecast, Chipmaker Supplier VAT Cuts Outlook to Two-Year Low on Iran War
- DG FP : Aena Wins Heated Auction to Operate Airport in Rio de Janeiro
- WRD US : Uber Discloses 5.82% Stake of WeRide’s Class A shares
- WDI GY : Singapore Says Former Wirecard Staff Extradited to Germany

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 31st of March 2026

>>> Up
* Beiersdorf Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT 80 euros
* Domino's Pizza Group Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Enagas Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 16.50 euros
* Helleniq Energy Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 11.20 euros
* INVISIO AB Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 335 kronor
* Neste Price Target Raised to EUR 30 from EUR 24 by Nordea
* PORR Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 41.50 euros
* Sonova Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 163 Swiss francs
* Suedzucker Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 15 euros
* Vestas Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT 230 kroner

>>> Down
* Barco Cut to Hold at ING; PT 10 euros
* Elisa Cut to Sell at Nordea; PT 38 euros
* Givaudan Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 2,915 Swiss francs
* J D Wetherspoon Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 540 pence
* Rockwell Automation Cut to Hold at Jefferies

>>> Initiation
* AstraZeneca Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* Beijer Alma Rated New Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 250 kronor
* Daimler Truck Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 53 euros
* Daimler Truck ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $31
* Fiserv Reinstated Hold at Loop Capital; PT $62
* H&M Rated New Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 170 kronor
* Kier Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT 215 pence
* Mastercard Reinstated Buy at Loop Capital; PT $631
* Nvidia Rated New Add at Caitong Securities
* Paccar Reinstated Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $126
* PayPal Reinstated Hold at Loop Capital; PT $46
* Rheinmetall Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT 1,480 euros
* Traton Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 37 euros
* Visa Reinstated Buy at Loop Capital; PT $387
* Vitrolife Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 110 kronor
* Volvo Reinstated Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 304 kronor
* Volvo ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $32

>>> Call
* Cisco Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $94
* Corning Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $125
* Dell Technologies Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $170
* Enagas Raised at Morgan Stanley After Positive Regulatory Review
* HP Enterprise Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $31
* Morgan Stanley Cuts Global Equities to Equal-Weight on Oil Risks
* Porr Gets Clean Sweep of Buys as Oddo BHF Says Value Attractive
* Sonova Raised at JPMorgan, Near End of the Estimate Downgrades
* Tesla’s Price Target Slashed by $100 at Canaccord Genuity (1)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Demant (WDH1 TH) +1.6%
    • Demant Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Danske Bank
  • Beiersdorf (BEI TH) +1.4%
    • Beiersdorf Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT 80 euros
  • Wolters Kluwer (WOSB TH) +1.2%
  • Safran (SEJ1 TH) +1.2%
  • Nordnet (9JL TH) +1%
  • UPM-Kymmene (RPL TH) +1%
  • AB InBev (1NBA TH) -1%
  • BP (BPE5 TH) -1%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -1.2%
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) -1.5%
  • ArcelorMittal (ARRD TH) -1.6%
  • Telefonica (TNE5 TH) -1.6%
  • Fuchs (FPE3 TH) -1.6%

FT : Pete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy defence fund before Iran attack

Pete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy defence fund before Iran attack
Morgan Stanley wealth manager approached BlackRock about multimillion-dollar investment for US defence secretary

A broker for Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, attempted to make a big investment in major defence companies in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Hegseth’s broker at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February about making a multimillion-dollar investment in the asset manager’s Defense Industrials Active ETF, the people said, shortly before the US launched military action against Tehran.

The inquiry on behalf of the high-profile potential client was flagged internally at BlackRock, according to the people familiar with the matter.

According to BlackRock, the $3.2bn equity fund, which carries the ticker IDEF, pursues “growth opportunities by investing in companies that may benefit from increased government spending on defense and security amid geopolitical fragmentation and economic competition”.

Its largest holdings include defence conglomerates RTX, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, which count the US Department of Defense as their biggest customers, as well as data integration specialist Palantir.

Following publication of the FT’s report, Sean Parnell, chief Pentagon spokesperson, wrote on social media site X: “This allegation is entirely false and fabricated. Neither Secretary Hegseth nor any of his representatives approached BlackRock about any such investment.”

BlackRock and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.

Hegseth is among the chief architects of the war in Iran, and also served as one of the Trump administration’s most vocal advocates for the attack on the Islamic republic, often flaunting the US’s military might.

The investment discussed by Hegseth’s broker did not ultimately go ahead as the fund, which launched in May last year, was not yet available for Morgan Stanley clients to buy. Although ETFs are designed to be bought and sold as easily as a stock, their proliferation has meant that most big brokerage and trading platforms only carry a subset of the over 14,000 ETFs in existence.

It is not known whether Hegseth’s broker subsequently found an alternative defence-focused fund to make the investment. ETFs are popular with individual investors because they tend to offer lower fees and more favourable tax treatment than mutual funds as well as being able to buy and sell in and out of them more quickly.

The Nasdaq-listed IDEF fund has risen 28 per cent over the past year, but has not risen on the Middle East war, falling almost 13 per cent in the past month.

While the aborted nature of the approach to BlackRock may have avoided short-term losses, the fact that Hegseth’s broker was prepared to make such an investment when the defence secretary’s own department was preparing to launch a large-scale military campaign is likely to stir controversy.

The discussions about the defence investment come at a time when Wall Street analysts have been scrutinising trades made in financial and prediction markets ahead of decisions the Trump administration takes.

Hegseth has been a champion of the US campaign against Iran, with President Donald Trump identifying the former Fox News television personality as the first in his national security circle to push for war.

While at Fox News, Hegseth earned $4.6mn in salary from 2022 to 2024, according to a disclosure form submitted for his Senate confirmation. He also made nearly $500,000 from two book advances in those years, and $100,001 to $1mn in royalties for each. He also earned almost $900,000 in speaking fees.

His most recent financial disclosure, released in June 2025, showed the defence secretary sold stock in 29 different companies, with values ranging from $1,001 to $50,000 each.

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Beiersdorf (BEI TH) +1.3%
    • Beiersdorf Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT 80 euros
MDAX:
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) +1%
  • Fuchs (FPE3 TH) -1.1%
SDAX:
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) +2.9%
    • Suedzucker Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 15 euros
  • Verbio SE (VBK TH) +1%
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) -1.1%
  • Dermapharm (DMP TH) -1.6%
    • Dermapharm Sees 2026 Adjusted Ebitda EU331M to EU341M

FT : Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war

Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war
International official holdings at New York Federal Reserve fall to lowest level since 2012

Foreign central banks have slashed their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Federal Reserve to the lowest level since 2012, as countries sell the US government bonds to prop up their economies and currencies in the wake of the Iran war.

The value of Treasuries held in custody at the New York Fed by official institutions — a group that is largely made up of central banks but also includes governments and international institutions — has dropped by $82bn since February 25 to $2.7tn, according to Fed data.

The decline in these holdings since the war began a month ago highlights how the surge in energy prices triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway, has upended the finances of countries that rely on oil imports, as well as boosting the dollar across the board.

It also comes at a time when some central banks have intervened in foreign exchange markets to prop up their currencies, a move that typically involves selling US dollars.

“The foreign official sector is selling Treasuries,” said Meghan Swiber, a US rates strategist at Bank of America.


Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who studies foreign holdings of Treasuries, said oil importers such as Turkey, India and Thailand are probably among those selling Treasuries as they pay higher prices for oil, which is denominated in dollars.

Turkey’s central bank has sold $22bn of foreign government securities from its foreign currency reserves since February 27, the day before the attacks on Iran were launched, according to official data. Setser said a significant portion of these securities were likely to be Treasuries.

Separate data from Thai and Indian central banks show that foreign exchange reserves have been sold since the start of the war in Iran, though whether that represents sales of Treasuries or of dollar deposits is unclear. 

“A number of countries . . . don’t want their currencies to weaken further because it pushes up the local currency price of oil — and either means more fiscal subsidies or more pain for households. Hence the widespread decision to intervene in the currency market to try to limit depreciation and higher local currency oil prices,” Setser said.


Swiber at BofA noted that Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries could also be selling those assets to make up for oil revenue, though they represent a small portion of overall Treasury holders.

Treasuries are relied upon by global central banks as the pre-eminent reserve asset, since the $30tn market for the securities is the biggest and deepest in the world.

Foreign central banks are selling US bonds at a time when the Treasury market is already under pressure as traders worry that the Middle East conflict could drive up inflation. That has pushed yields on both two- and 10-year Treasuries up this month by the most since 2024, increasing borrowing costs for the government as well as businesses and households.

Some investors said foreign central banks’ Treasuries holdings often drift lower as the dollar strengthens — as they seek to rebalance their assets and defend their currencies — but others said the data could be a sign holders are drawing on funds amid the market volatility.

The data suggested foreign official holders could be “stocking the war chest” by cashing out Treasuries, according to Stephen Jones, chief investment officer at Aegon Asset Management.

“They are pulling in rainy-day money.”


Analysts also noted that some Treasury holdings might have been moved to other custodians besides the New York Fed, rather than having been sold outright. But the sales recorded in the Fed data were still notable, particularly since the Treasury market had roughly tripled in size since 2012, when the Fed last recorded this level of selling, Swiber said.

Foreign official holdings of Treasuries held at the Fed have declined in recent years, as managers of foreign currency reserves have diversified away from dollars. That has made foreign private investors an increasingly important part of the market.

The recent selling “speaks to the larger story which is that foreign reserve managers and official accounts are diversifying away from Treasuries”, Swiber said.