Equity-index futures rose and oil pared its gains after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump told aides he’s willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.9%, while those for European shares indicated a 0.4% gain at the open as sentiment improved following the WSJ report. A rebound in Asian shares, however, faded, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping 1% and on track for its worst month since October 2008. West Texas Intermediate pared most of its gains to trade around $103 a barrel as investors bet on easing tensions in the Middle East. The commodity had earlier risen to almost $107 a barrel. Treasuries extended gains and the dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers after the report. The whipsaw moves followed a weak open for stocks and a jump in oil prices after Iran struck a Kuwaiti crude oil carrier in Dubai. A US withdrawal from the conflict would help ease tensions and improve prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery whose disruption has driven oil prices higher. Restoring flows from the Middle East would benefit major importers in Asia such as India and China and help alleviate concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth. In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the Strait of Hormuz would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four-to-six weeks, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing administration officials it did not name. Over the past month, Trump has expressed various opinions in public on how to handle the closure of the waterway, part of a larger pattern of giving conflicting goals and objectives for the war overall. He has at times threatened to bomb civilian energy infrastructure if the channel isn’t reopened by a certain date. On other occasions, he has played down the importance of the strait to the US and said its closure is a problem for other nations to solve. After a month of fighting, it’s arguably Iran that has secured the most significant strategic victory — a tightening grip over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So far in March, barely six vessels per day on average have traversed the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world, in either direction. That compares with about 135 a day in normal times. Elsewhere, Treasuries rallied after the Wall Street Journal report, with the benchmark 10-year yield dropping two basis points to 4.33%. The securities had advanced on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed near-term inflation risks from higher energy prices. Gold rose 1% to trade around $4,550 an ounce, while silver jumped 2.7%. Meantime, the trading desk at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said signs of capitulation are starting to emerge among hedge funds, and the systematic community is running out of steam. It anticipates that trend-following investor CTAs will be buyers in every scenario over the next month. US equities did an about-face on Monday, deepening a selloff that spurred the longest weekly losing streak since 2022 amid fears of escalation in the war after more American troops arrived in Iran. The Nasdaq 100 is trading 12% below its October record. The rout was spurred by concern that surging oil prices from the war in the Middle East could choke off economic growth and reignite inflation. The S&P 500 Index stood less than 1% away from a correction. Some investors said the moves were part of the ongoing volatility, rather than a fundamental easing of risk sentiment, until more substantive concessions are made or a clear end to the conflict emerges. US After Hours SPCE +14.7%, PRGS +1.5% higher on earnings; PEPG -48% under pressure after Phase 2 study results; PHR -21.3% sharply lower after earnings
Nikkei -0.82% Hang Seng -0.40% CSI -0.25% Shanghai -0.15% Shenzen -0.90%
Eur$ 1.1470 CNH 6.9161 CNY 6.9102 JPY 159.63 GBP 1.3198 CHF 0.7987 RUB 81.3486 TRY 44.4756 WTI$ 102.74 -0.13% Gold 4,568.80 +0.64% BTC 67,500 +1.30% ETH 2,061 +1.99%
S&P +0.85% Nasdaq +0.84% EuroStoxx +0.68% FTSE +0.15% Dax +0.69% SMI +0.49%
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