Trump Proposal to Cut Tax Rate for U.S. Manufacturers Spurs Flurry of Questions
Some predict a 15% tax cut will boost American jobs and wages, but others worry about administrative burdens and gamesmanship
On Thursday, Donald Trump pledged to New York’s business elite that he would “once again turn America into the manufacturing superpower of the world.”
To do so, he said, he would cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% for companies that make their products in the U.S., and expand tariffs on foreign-made goods.
The proposal raised immediate questions from economists, corporate leaders and others. Among them: What counts as American-made? And would his plan spur manufacturing, or launch a costly trade war?
The benefit would be “solely for companies that make their product in America,” Trump told a lunchtime audience at the Economic Club of New York. “If you outsource, offshore or replace American workers, you are not eligible for any of these benefits. In fact, you will pay a very substantial tariff when a product comes in from another country.”
The proposed tax cut would revive a type of perk that Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act eliminated. Before that law, the U.S. had a tax break that amounted to a special lower rate for domestic manufacturers. Companies could deduct 9% of their domestic-production income, effectively reducing their tax rates to as low as 31.85% from 35%. At the margins, targeted tax breaks can encourage companies to engage in preferred activities, but they can also reward companies for doing what they were doing anyway.
The old provision led to disputes over what, exactly, counts as domestic production. Congress repealed the domestic-production deduction in the 2017 law, choosing instead to lower the corporate tax rate across the board.
Some economists said Trump’s new proposal would likely spark a similar debate, though they added it was hard to judge the idea without more detail.
“Part of the problem is policing the definition of what constitutes manufacturing,” said Rebecca Kysar, a tax-law expert and professor at Fordham School of Law and a former Treasury Department official in the Biden administration. Under the provision repealed by the 2017 law, companies that wouldn’t normally be thought of as manufacturers were able to take advantage of the break, including Starbucks, because roasting beans qualified as manufacturing, Kysar said.
In one court case, a company that assembled chocolate and cheese for gift baskets was able to argue successfully that this counted as a manufacturing activity and therefore qualified for the break, Kysar added. “There is potentially lots of gamesmanship that companies can take advantage of,” she said.
While Trump didn’t say what share of a product would need to be U.S.-made to qualify for the tax break, he suggested it would be high. “My message is simple: Make your product here in America and only in America,” he said. “We are not going to be taken advantage of anymore.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28%.
Trump’s proposal could add an additional administrative burden by requiring companies to prove where their underlying components come from, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist for Capital Economics, an analysis and consulting firm. This would be trickier for manufacturers of complex equipment, such as machinery, and for small companies, he said.
“The key beneficiaries could be companies making either simple products or products that would be unlikely to be imported in the first place,” he said, such as packaged food already using domestic agricultural ingredients.
A variety of U.S. laws and regulations on the books already provide benefits to companies that manufacture domestically or in North America. Under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the successor trade pact to the North American Free Trade Agreement, auto companies can qualify for tariff-free trade if a certain share of their components are originally manufactured in the U.S., Canada or Mexico. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, signed by President Biden in 2021, requires U.S.-produced iron, steel and construction materials in projects receiving funding.
Trump on Thursday proposed additional measures to boost domestic manufacturing and corporate research, including immediate writeoffs for capital expenses and an expanded tax credit for research and development.
Trump’s proposals drew support from some of the investors and business executives who attended Thursday’s lunch.
“I think if you combine tariffs to make it more attractive for manufacturers to build in America versus abroad, and combine that with a modest tax incentive, I think that will bring more manufacturing back to the U.S. and have a positive impact on jobs and wages,” said John Paulson, the billionaire hedge-fund manager and Trump fundraiser. Trump and his allies have considered Paulson for the post of Treasury secretary.
Another attendee, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm, said the proposal was too vague to be judged.
“We are in the part of the campaign where we are getting competitive political messaging rather than compelling policy proposals,” he said. When Trump described the proposal, “The first thing I thought was, does that mean they only produce in the U.S.? What does this mean for Boeing?” Brusuelas said. Some of the company’s parts are manufactured overseas.
Some U.S. manufacturers said they welcomed the policy, but still had questions about how the tax cut would be structured, and which companies might qualify for it.
Lisa Winton, chief executive of Winton Machine, a 40-person machine manufacturer based outside of Atlanta, said some of the company’s competitors produce most of their components overseas and do only the final assembly of products in the U.S. “Could those companies still take advantage of the tax cut?” she wondered. “There are so many questions around it,” she said.
Kip Eideberg, senior vice president of government and industry relations at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, a trade group, said many companies were still parsing Trump’s proposal, and looking for clarity on which businesses might qualify for it.
The top concern among his organization’s members hasn’t been the overall corporate tax rate, but the tax treatment for research and development spending, which got less generous starting in 2022 because of a provision in the 2017 tax law. Manufacturers also worry about the prospect of a wider tariff war.
“We would take the current rates over that any day of the week,” Eideberg said.