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Investors have piled into Argentine assets this year, betting Javier Milei can revitalize the beleaguered South American economy

The hot new trade on Wall Street has nothing to do with crypto, electric vehicles or artificial intelligence. It’s Argentina—the country infamous among investors for serial debt defaults.

Hedge funds and other money managers have piled into Argentine markets this year, betting President Javier Milei can overhaul a long-suffering economy. The trade has paid off handsomely, with Buenos Aires stocks on pace to finish 2024 as the world’s best performers and government bond prices soaring. An exchange-traded fund tracking the MSCI Argentina index is up more than 60%.

Milei won the presidency by vowing drastic spending cuts, often waving a chain saw above his head while campaigning to reinforce the point. The libertarian political outsider, who has been praised by President-elect Donald Trump, took office last December.

He has followed through by stopping public works, cutting fund transfers to provinces and reducing widespread utility subsidies. Milei has also moved to shrink the gap between official and black-market currency rates.

Milei’s shock therapy has caused widespread economic pain, worsening an already high poverty rate. But inflation has slowed dramatically from sky-high levels, and, for the first time in over a decade, Argentina swung to a quarterly fiscal surplus this year. Recent data showed the economy exiting recession, growing at a 3.9% rate as of September compared with the previous quarter.

That has sparked a sea change in investor attitudes toward a country long plagued by problems such as political chaos, runaway prices and government overspending. Argentina has defaulted on sovereign debt nine times since winning independence in 1816, most recently in 2020.

“The nature of this U-turn has been breathtaking,” said Genna Lozovsky, chief investment officer at Sandglass Capital Advisors, a London-based hedge-fund firm. “If the fiscal anchor that Milei has so firmly planted in the ground stays in place, if this disinflation trend continues and if the economy continues to hum along,” bondholders should expect substantial gains, he said.

Argentina’s bonds have already rallied dramatically. One gauge of the nation’s hard-currency debt, the ICE BofA US Dollar Argentina Sovereign Index, has generated a total return of about 90% this year.

Meanwhile, the S&P Merval Index has risen more than 160% this year through Monday, far outpacing stock benchmarks in developed, emerging and frontier markets alike. Adjusting for currency differences, the index is still up more than 100% in U.S. dollar terms. For comparison, the S&P 500 is up 25% over the same period.

Investment firms focused on emerging markets and distressed debt have been notable beneficiaries.

“Argentina was one of our biggest winners this year,” said Aaron Stern, chief investment officer of Converium Capital, a multistrategy hedge-fund firm in Montreal that oversees $500 million. “Generally I don’t like saying ‘this time is different,’ but I think the backdrop globally and domestically is more favorable than it’s been in recent history for Argentina,” he said.

Stern said Converium began buying Argentine sovereign bonds soon after the firm launched in 2021. The bonds were beaten down after a 2020 restructuring. Converium wagered there was little downside, given low prices and with Argentina’s government not on the hook to make near-term debt repayments. On the other hand, the firm figured meaningful gains were possible if the situation in Argentina improved.

At Shiprock, a distressed-and-special-situations hedge-fund firm that oversees nearly $800 million, Argentine debt holdings have helped power the firm’s 34% gain through November of this year, according to a person familiar with the firm’s performance. That includes bets on sovereign, corporate and Buenos Aires’s provincial debt, the person said.

Government interventions in currency markets have made it hard for Argentina to rebuild its foreign-exchange reserves. The country has a multibillion-dollar hard-currency shortfall, raising some investor concerns about its ability to meet obligations to bondholders.

Alessandra Alecci, a debt fund manager who focuses on emerging markets for Carmignac, said the French asset manager still has concerns about the reserve shortfall, which she estimated at about $8 billion in net terms. But for now, she said, “it’s been very difficult to have strong doubts” about Milei’s economic overhaul continuing to work.

To bolster the country’s financial standing, Milei has sought a new loan from the International Monetary Fund, a move that would allow his government to lift the tight currency controls that have strangled business in the country for years.

Some investors are hopeful Milei’s budding relationships with Trump and Tesla’s Elon Musk will help Argentina secure a deal from the Washington-based IMF. A spokeswoman for the IMF said in a news briefing this month that negotiations with Argentina are under way.

Carmignac, the French firm, began placing cautious bets on Argentina last fall as Milei gained momentum in the polls. It now holds a larger position in Argentine sovereign debt, as well as roughly $200 million of Argentine stocks.

The investment company’s portfolio managers say they feel optimistic about Argentina’s economic trajectory—a sentiment reinforced after a small team including co-founder Edouard Carmignac met Milei in Argentina last month.

The team left the meeting very impressed, said Xavier Hovasse, Carmignac’s head of emerging equities. Milei “knows exactly what he wants to do—the direction is very clear for him,” he said.

As the Versace company is said to be up for sale, Milan-based sources say Donatella Versace's contract is due to expire in February.

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As reported, Capri Holdings is said to be working with Barclays to sell Versace and Jimmy Choo as it focuses on the Michael Kors turnaround, stirring yet more speculation in and around Milan. Sources say the contract of Donatella Versace, chief creative officer of the Italian brand, is up in February. The speculation surrounds whether she — or Capri — will renew it.

Asked for a response, the Versace company said it does not comment on rumors.

Donatella Versace reached a $2.1 billion deal to sell her family’s company to the-then Michael Kors Holdings in 2018, which subsequently changed its name to Capri Holdings. She has been fundamental in spearheading the brand ever since the murder of her brother Gianni in 1997. In addition to her work as a designer, Versace has acquired A-list popularity on social media, and is widely recognized for her philanthropic work, her support of the marginalized and her initiatives to sustain the rights of the LGBTQIA+ community. She has also contributed to fuel the work of young designers such as Christopher Kane, who designed Versus with her for years.

Capri is widely seen as considering its options for both Versace and Jimmy Choo — and perhaps even for Michael Kors – since the company’s $8.5 billion buyout by Tapestry Inc. was dropped following an antitrust challenge from the U.S. government.

Versace’s first-half revenues fell 22.1 percent to $420 million, but Capri chairman and chief executive officer John Idol recently said the brand could bounce back by “engaging and energizing both new and loyal consumers, broadening our product offering, improving store productivity and returning our wholesale business to growth.”

“We believe we removed too many unique Versace statement items, which resulted in a less exciting brand and product identity,” the CEO said. “We also significantly reduced our offering of products for aspirational consumers as we tried to elevate the brand.”

But sources said Idol and Donatella Versace have often clashed over the strategy for the brand, further fueling the speculation over the designer’s contract renewal.

Consulate recommends against unnecessary travel as schools urge international students to be in place before inauguration

Chinese authorities are advising Chinese students in the U.S. to think twice about leaving the country over for the holidays, adding to warnings by a dozen American universities to international students to be back on campus before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Students should “try to reduce unnecessary cross-border travel,” China’s Consulate General in Chicago said in a Dec. 14 note on its website, referring to holidays approaching.

The visas of Chinese students, particularly in the sciences, were targeted during Trump’s first term, and many Chinese students now studying at U.S. schools are feeling on edge ahead of his return to the White House.

Many are now scrambling to change travel plans while also thinking about a Plan B if tougher visa rules come into effect next year.

A 26-year-old graduate student at Columbia University in New York, who asked to be identified only by her surname, Guo, said she is still going to visit her partner in Europe during the winter break. To make sure she won’t have any trouble returning, she booked a return flight on Jan. 19, just ahead of the inauguration and a few days before the spring semester starts.

She is set to graduate next year and, feeling a sense of belonging in the U.S., she had hoped to stay and find a job. Uncertainty now surrounds those plans as well as those of other Chinese students, who have flocked to Chinese social-media platforms to vent their frustration about not knowing what is ahead.

“I wake up in the middle of the night, worrying about what to do next,” Guo said. “Anxiety is through the roof, and almost everyone I know feels so lost.”

During Trump’s first term, Chinese students were under heightened scrutiny and faced a range of restrictions. The Trump administration focused in particular on Chinese nationals deemed security risks to American scientific research, including Chinese graduate students and postgraduate researchers who had studied at Chinese universities with close ties to the country’s defense industry.

In 2020 alone, more than 1,000 Chinese nationals had their visas revoked over such concerns, according to data provided by the U.S. State Department.

When President Biden took office in 2021, he revoked several of Trump’s executive actions, including a ban on citizens entering the U.S. from several predominantly Muslim countries but some Chinese students continued being barred from entering the U.S. or being deported.

Admission to a U.S. university is no guarantee a student will be issued a student visa.

Students say in recent years it has become more common for admitted Chinese students to be denied visas, especially those in so-called STEM fields.

Beyond graduation, the Optional Practical Training program lets international students work for a year in the U.S. while remaining on their student visas. After that, they need an employee sponsor to get a work visa under the H-1B program.

Like many fellow students, Guo said she is now considering pursuing a doctoral degree or moving to Europe as the chance of getting an employer-sponsored visa in the U.S. is getting slim.

While schools’ warnings have generally been directed at all international students, during internal meetings some school officials referred to students from China as facing increased risk, according to students and faculty members. Students said they had been advised by school officials to comply if immigration officers ask to check their electronic devices and to be careful with what they say on social media.

“A travel ban is likely to go into effect soon after inauguration,” Cornell University said in a note posted online in November. Apart from countries targeted in the first Trump administration such as majority-Muslim ones, China and India might also be added to the travel ban, Cornell said.

“To avoid any unexpected issues, we advise returning prior to the presidential inauguration,” according to a note posted on the University of Pennsylvania website.

The Chinese consulate in Chicago said it has been its practice to issue consular safety reminders before holidays. The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it was also reminding students to enhance their security awareness during entry into the U.S.

Iris Feng, a Columbia statistics major, recently canceled a planned trip back to China on the advice of her parents, who urged her to stay put rather than risk running into trouble at the U.S. border on her return.

Feng, who like Guo is graduating next year, said she would try to pursue a work permit through the OPT program. If that doesn’t work, she plans to look for opportunities in Hong Kong.

Others are considering options such as a program known as EB-5, which offers permanent American residency to foreigners who invest in qualified job-creating projects.

A graduate student studying finance in New York said she had been back and forth on whether to seek a green card through the program, which requires a minimum investment of $800,000 for certain projects. Following the election results, she has decided to take the plunge, relying on pooled financial resources from her parents and extended family.

She is now working with a lawyer to get her EB-5 applications ready, hoping that will allow her to stay in the U.S.

She said she felt crushed by China’s stringent restrictions during the pandemic, when she and millions of others were cooped up inside amid crippling lockdowns. “I know people who have studied here, returned to China and are perfectly happy,” she said. “I don’t think that’s for me.”

Demand for EB-5 investment has increased after Trump’s re-election, said Sam Silverman, founder of EB5AN, which invests EB-5 capital into U.S. real-estate projects.

“Now that many foreign nationals with children on student visas realize it’s going to be much harder for their sons or daughters to stay in the U.S. after graduation, they are seriously considering an EB-5 investment to eliminate that obstacle,” Silverman said.

India surpassed China as the top country of origin for international students, with 331,602 Indian students in the U.S. during the latest academic year, according to data released in November by the Institute of International Education. China came second, with 277,398 students. India and China combined still made up over half of all international students in the U.S.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans studying in China has been declining for over a decade amid rising U.S.-China tensions and the tightening of controls on expression under Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

More than 11,000 Americans were studying in China before the pandemic. According to the most recent IIE data, only 469 American students studied in academic-credit programs in China during the 2022-2023 academic year. The tally didn’t include internships and research work.

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A lean-looking Elon Musk revealed Wednesday that he uses Mounjaro — after previously expressing support for similar weight-loss drugs as a means to curb America’s obesity epidemic.

The billionaire Tesla, SpaceX and X boss made the admission in a social media post, where he included an image of himself donning a Santa Claus suit and flowing white beard.

Musk dubbed himself “Ozempic Santa” in the X post, noting it’s “Like Cocaine Bear, but Santa and Ozempic!”

“Technically, Mounjaro, but that doesn’t have the same ring to it,” he clarified.

Mounjaro, like Ozempic, is a GLP-1 inhibitor – a class of drugs developed to help people with diabetes regulate their blood glucose and insulin levels.

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However, Americans have increasingly been using GLP-1 inhibitors to successfully shed pounds.

Musk, 53, noted that he prefers Mounjaro to Ozempic because taking “high doses” of the latter drug made him “fart & burp like Barney from the Simpson’s.”

“Mounjaro seems to have fewer side effects and be more effective,” the incoming head of President-elect Donald Trump’s Department of Governmental Efficiency said.

Musk has long argued for widespread use of GLP-1 inhibitors to combat obesity – a position that clashes with Health and Human Services Secretary-designate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s stance on the medication.

Kennedy, 70, has contended that getting Americans to eat healthier would be a more cost-effective way of handling the obesity crisis.

Musk’s support for GLP-1 inhibitors has earned him praise from the liberal hosts of “The View,” one of whom, Whoopi Goldberg, has also admitted taking Mounjaro.

“Elon’s right on this!” Goldberg declared during a discussion earlier this month on the division between the incoming DOGE chief and HHS secretary.

The 69-year-old comedian later showed off her own trim figure after revealing to the audience that she weighed close to 300 pounds two years ago before she started taking Mounjaro.

Musk, who has publicly proclaimed that he doesn’t like working out, previously admitted to using Wegovy, another GLP-1 inhibitor, in 2022.

Processing the increasing mountain of unwanted, used or damaged goods is hitting profits

Record US online spending on Black Friday provided a rare bright spot for retailers. There is more to come. Consumers are expected to spend $240.8bn on internet shopping this holiday season, an 8.4 per cent increase from the same period the previous year, according to Adobe Analytics.

But there is a downside to the ease with which Americans can fill up their digital carts these days: the deluge of merchandise returns. It has become a multibillion-dollar problem for the retail industry. Investors should take note.

Online purchases have long had higher return rates than sales at bricks-and-mortar stores. When you cannot try on or see a product in person before buying, you are more likely to change your mind about your purchase. 

Americans returned 17.3 per cent of their online purchases last year compared with just 10 per cent of purchases made in-store, according to the National Retail Federation. Returns accounted for $743bn — or 14.5 per cent — of the $5.13tn of retail sales reported in 2023. That is up from 8.8 per cent of total retail sales in 2012.

For retailers that have seen their margins eroded by the continuing arms race in free shipping, being on the hook to foot the bill for processing the mountain of unwanted, used or damaged goods only compounds their pain. A returned item may no longer be sellable by the time a customer returns it. This means the item ends up in the discount bin, hurting profits. All this makes returns unpredictable and hard to account for on a company’s balance sheet. 

This is especially true with clothing, where shoppers tend to order an item in different sizes and colours and return the ones they don’t like. There is even a word for it: “bracketing”. For some online apparel retailers, returns now average 40 per cent of sales.

To cut return costs, which can sometimes be more than the item itself, some retailers have reinstated fees or shrunk their refund windows. Others such as Target or Chewy are simply telling customers to keep or donate the items they want to return. Amazon has added a “frequently returned item” label to some of its listings. Retailers are also investing in technology and hiring third parties such as B-Stock to help speed up resales. 

They need all the help they can get. The economics of US online retailing — where customers expect free shipping and easy returns — are tough. The growth in internet shopping is here to stay. Retailers that can keep their return rate low will have an edge.