The dollar weakened and US stock futures slipped as traders prepared for US jobs data that may determine the size of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this month. Bloomberg’s gauge of the greenback fell for a third day amid speculation a worse-than-expected payrolls outcome could spur the central bank into making a jumbo 50 basis-point cut at its September meeting. Asian equities were mixed ahead of the numbers, while Hong Kong stock trading was shut due to a typhoon. The yen strengthened. There’s limited event risk to be concerned about in Asia “so again the session will be defined by further pre-positioning ahead of US payrolls,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “Traders will use the time in front of the screens to review, massage and manage positioning and exposures and the possible cross-market volatility that can kick up.” Treasury yields edged lower after falling Thursday, adding further downward pressure on the greenback. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped one basis point to 3.71%. The so-called whisper number for payrolls among Bloomberg terminal users suggests an addition of just 155,000 jobs for August, below the median economist estimate of 165,000. Currency traders haven’t been this animated before a US jobs report in more than a year. Options used to gauge swings in the dollar versus its main trading partners hit the highest level for the day since March 2023 So-called risk reversals, a barometer of market positioning, show bearish sentiment prevails for the US currency, and some traders are steering clear of short-term bets altogether, given the uncertainty. Interest-rate swap contracts show a roughly 35% chance that the Fed will cut by 50 basis points when it meets Sept. 17-18. Still, a quarter-point reduction is still favored by many traders and remains the more popular call among economists. Currency strategists see a strong chance the yen will test its August high versus the dollar if the payrolls data boost bets for a 50-basis-point move. The yen “is where the action will be” if there is any surprise in the figures, said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Singapore The dollar will be “in deep trouble” versus Japan’s currency if the unemployment rate ticks up to 4.4%, he said. Hong Kong scrapped trading of its $4.9 trillion stock market on Friday as the city prolonged a storm warning due to Super Typhoon Yagi, which skirted the region overnight toward southern China. Elsewhere in Asia, China may be facing new export controls on critical technologies by the Biden administration. Washington has cracked down on China’s ability to access cutting-edge technologies needed for artificial intelligence, over fears that advanced chips and components could lend Beijing a military edge. Chinese brokerage stocks gained after two of the largest state-backed brokers said they are looking to combine. Analysts said the merger may encourage other firms to follow suit. China’s sovereign yield curve is steepening as the threat of intervention prompts traders to slow purchases of longer-term bonds. Debt buying has been more pronounced on the shorter end this week, which has widened the yield spread between the two- and 10-year bonds to the most since July. Traders are also awaiting comments from two Fed speakers later Friday. New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller are scheduled to make comments following the payrolls numbers. Oil headed for its biggest weekly loss in almost a year on concerns about soft demand and ample supply, even as OPEC+ delayed a planned increase in output by two months. Gold was little changed as traders digested the latest US data readings. Iron ore remained on track for its worst week since March, with few signs of a recovery for China’s steel market. US After Hours AVGO -6.4% lower on earnings; AGX +17.3%, PATH +9.4%, GWRE +8.1%, SMAR +3.9% higher on earnings; X +2.3% as CLF CEO appears on CNBC, says CLF still interested in acquiring X.
Nikkei -0.81% Hang Seng -0.07% CSI -0.42% Shanghai -0.33% Shenzen -1.19%
Eur$ 1.1116 CNH 7.0821 CNY 7.0833 JPY 142.59 GBP 1.3175 CHF 0.8422 RUB 88.2668 TRY 33.9979 WTI$ 69.07-0.12% Gold 2,522 +0.20% BTC 56,450 +0.17% ETH 2,384 +0.70%
S&P -0.14% Nasdaq -0.46% EuroStoxx -0.25% FTSE -0.19% Dax -0.20% SMI -0.41%
Macro :
- Economy Will Matter More Than the Election for Stocks in 4Q
- Investment-Grade Firms Shy Away From Convertible Debt: ECM Watch
- Investment-Grade Firms Shy Away From Convertible Debt: ECM Watch
- Short Sellers Circle Volvo Car, Porsche on China Trade Spat Risk
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus A350 Checks Ordered by EASA After Cathay Engine Fire (2)
- AMZN US : Amazon Near Deal to Broadcast NBA, MLB, NHL Games on Prime: NYP
- AOF GY : Atoss Software Offering by Holders Prices at EU120/Share
- SAB SM : BBVA Says Sabadell Takeover Bid Received Approval From ECB
- BSLN SW : Basilea Gets $25M Milestone Payment From Cresemba Sales
- BKG LN : Berkeley FY Pretax Profit Forecast Meets Estimates
- AVGO US : Broadcom's soft Q4 revenue guidance pushes stock down by -6.8% afterhours; weighs modestly on some of its peers --> MU -0.8%, TSM -0.7%, NVDA -0.7%, AMD -0.4%, MRVL -0.2%
- CRN LN : Cairn Homes CEO Michael Stanley Offers 8m Shares via Goodbody
- ALCAR FP : Carmat Exploring Options to Extend Cash Runway Beyond September
- ATD CN : Seven & I Rejects Couche-Tard Takeover Bid, Shares Dip (Correct)
- DARK LN : Darktrace CEO Poppy Gustafsson to Step Down Effective Today
- DBK GY : Ex-Deutsche Bank Trader Loses UK Case Over $3.4 Million Bonus
- DOCU US : DocuSign Boosts FY Revenue Forecast, Beats Estimates, Falls After Third Quarter Billings Forecast Disappoints
- ELIS FP : Elis Has Made an Offer to Buy Vestis: Reuters
- FIA1S FH : Finnair Aug. Revenue Passenger Kilometers +7.5%
- G4M LN : Gear4Music Says Performance is in Line With Expectations
- INPST NA : InPost 2Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- INTC US : Intel Is Said to Explore Sale of Part of Stake in Mobileye
- MBLY US : *MOBILEYE SHARES DROP AS MUCH AS 5.9%
- ORSTED DC : Orsted Drops Another Green Hydrogen Project, Finans Says
- PLNW FP : Planisware Holder Ardian France Offers 3.2m Shares: Terms
- PLNW FP : Ardian Moves to Exit Planisware Stake Following IPO
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen Says Russian Unit Sale Delayed With Shares Frozen
- RUI FP : Rubis 1H Ebitda EU358M Vs. EU409M Y/y (Sept. 5)
- CRM US : Salesforce Agrees to Buy Startup Own for $1.9 Billion
- SHLF NO : Shelf Drilling Gets Contract in West Africa Worth $60m
- SOF BB : Sofina 1H Net Asset Value per Share EU287
- TEMN SW : Temenos major shareholder Ebner significantly increases stake
- TGS NO : TGS Gets 2D Seismic Contract in Indonesia
- TLGM : Telegram Chief Blames ‘Growing Pains’ in First Post Since Arrest
- TITC BB : Titan Cement Is Said to Pick Banks for IPO of $2 Billion US Unit
- UAA US : Steph Curry Looks to Go All Out With Plank Back at Under Armour
- X US : US Steel Rises as Cliffs CEO Says He’s Still Interested in Firm
- X US : Japan PM Contender Hayashi Holds Out Hope for Nippon Steel Deal
- VSTS US : Elis Has Made an Offer to Buy Vestis: Reuters