Has Aston Martin gone ‘rogue’ with its Vanquish V12?
We take a first drive of the new, all-muscle supercar
Since Lawrence Stroll took over at Aston Martin in 2020, he has revamped the marque’s motorsport efforts in Formula One as well as its road car range. First came the improved Aston Martin DBX707 in 2022; then came the “Super Tourer” DB12, swiftly followed by an all-new take on the Vantage. Now, it’s time for its V12 supercar nameplate, the Vanquish, to return.
“We want it to look alive. We want it to look as though it’s been in the gym for about 24 months,” said Aston’s chief creative officer Marek Reichman at its launch. “It’s like a predatory shark,” he continued before acknowledging that Aston’s latest, fastest flagship has Ferrari’s recently launched 12Cilindri firmly in its sights. Like its rival, the Vanquish goes against the trend for hybrid and electrification, with a newly developed V12 that produces 824bhp – 232bhp more than its predecessor and, crucially, five more horsepower than the 12Cilindri. It covers 0-62mph in 3.3 seconds and can go up to 214 mph, making it the fastest Aston Martin series production car (only the limited-production Valkyrie hypercar does faster).
Channelling the character of previous Vanquish models, such as the 2001 model that starred in Bond film Die Another Day and the 2012 follow-up, the new car is both muscular and aggressive but still beautiful. Aston’s design team cites cars like the DB6, as well as developmental racing cars from the 1960s, as inspiration, something that can be seen in the car’s abrupt “kamm tail” rear end. While there’s no Vanquish badge in sight, two distinctive rear lights distinguish it from the rest of the range, inspired by the Aston Martin Valkyrie hypercar – a car Aston Martin F1’s latest hire Adrian Newey helped design.
At the front, the Vanquish features Aston’s hallmark grille, designed to suck air in as much as it helps identify it on the road. Two vein-like carbon-fibre vents sit on top of the bonnet, their F1-inspired fluting designed to vent hot air from the engine bay. In the flesh it’s definitely a muscle car, and one that’s hit the steroids particularly hard. Despite being fractionally slower to 60mph than the Ferrari 12Cilindri, the Vanquish’s acceleration is still raw and relentless, helped in part by the twin turbochargers and also Aston’s new “Boost Reserve” device. On the road, it feels like an intravenous injection of power that catches you off guard. It’s devastatingly effective. As Reichman says: “It’s a rogue.”
As a result, driving the Vanquish requires moderation, particularly on the accelerator pedal. In a market flooded with cars that don’t let you put a foot wrong, the Aston keeps you on your toes. It’s not that the Vanquish lacks the same software – the car’s traction system can be dialled up and down depending on how brave you’re feeling – but it allows for a bit of play before it steps in.
When it comes to the main driving modes (GT, Sport and Sport +), Sport is the sweet spot, sharpening up the throttle response, steering and suspension just enough for spirited driving without sacrificing on too much comfort. Sport + is better suited to all-out track driving, while GT is perfect for calmer motorway cruising. There’s also a Wet mode for driving in the damp, and Individual, which lets the driver tailor the settings as they like.
Given the car’s penchant for speed and theatrics, it’s easy to forget that the Vanquish was also created to be a grand tourer – a car designed to cover great distances at pace. While the outside is all muscular show, the inside is comfortable and spacious, as befits one’s expectations of a tourer. Unlike the DB12 that sits just below it in Aston’s range, the Vanquish loses its rear seats, with a carbon-fibre strut brace and luggage space taking their place. “It’s all about the driver controlling car with the Vanquish interior,” says Reichman. “It’s about you sitting with the interior presented to you, so everything is a little bit lower. You’re more in control and more comfortable in your environment.”
Arriving towards the end of the year and starting from £333,000, the Vanquish is squarely in Ferrari space when it comes to both performance and price. Aston says that 65 per cent of the cars already on order have gone through Q, Aston Martin’s customisation service, so expect that starting figure to rise considerably with a few optional extras included.
MAKOR EVENT DRIVEN AI CLOUD & DATACENTERS The Electric Musketeers
AI, CLOUD & DATACENTERS: The Electric Musketeers.
Tapping into Europe's Renewable Energy Boom
The IEA’s report “Renewables 2024” published on October 9th, 2024, expects a massive growth all over the world till 2030 as a pace equivalent to the current electricity production of Europe, China, US and India. IAE expects solar energy to represent 35%, Wind energy 29% and hydroelectricity 29% by 2030 adding 550GW of new renewable capacities.
AI & Cloud giants like Amazon, Microsoft and Google are massively investing in data centres across Europe: Amazon sealed a deal in May 2024 to invest EUR 15.7Bn in the Aragon’s region of Spain through 2023, just after the same month announcing a EUR7.8BN in Germany and EUR1.2Bn in France.
According to several reports’, AI will need to build and have access by the end of the decade to 350TWh of capacity, which represents as for illustrative purpose the annual production of French company EDF. Clearly, there would be a shortage of electricity capacity around the world if nothing is done:
- Amazon signed a contract with Talen Energy (TLN US) to buy its data centre campus in Pennsylvania (near the Susquehanna nuclear facility) at a value translating into a $44 / GWh;
- In late September, Microsoft signed an agreement with Constellation Energy for the supply of electricity coming from Three Mil Island nuclear plant at a hefty $100 / GWh plus $30 / GWh equivalent for investment (20y PPA agreement).
- In the US, Corporations, investors, and the Government are currently discussing / pushing for the possible development of 5 GW of capacity through the construction of at least 5 new nuclear plants.
The renewable energy sector in Europe is booming, supported by government commitment and an unprecedented wave of mergers and acquisitions. As the energy transition accelerates, key players such as KKR, Brookfield, EQT and Energy Capital Partners are positioning themselves to take advantage of the market's promising growth. These investors see Solar, Wind and Gaz energy not only as a solution to climate challenges but also as an opportunity to generate long-term high returns.
Nuclear is, of course, also viewed as a key asset to supply electricity but less flexible in terms of use: a nuclear plant must be run in a permanent basis whereby the other assets utilization can be optimised depending on weather conditions.
One of the most significant recent transactions is KKR’s offer for Encavis, valuing the company at 1.6x EV/MWh of installed capacity. With an installed capacity of 3 GW, mostly in solar, Encavis aims for an ambitious expansion to 7 GW by 2027, representing an annual compound growth rate of 34%, placing it ahead of most of its competitors. In the same time, KKR is buying GreenVolt in Portugal.
Simultaneously, Brookfield is in the process of acquiring a majority stake in Neoen, the French renewable energy developer, valued at nearly €10 billion. Neoen, with 8 GW of operational and under-construction assets, benefits from strong coverage of power purchase agreements (PPAs), which secure 71% of its long-term revenues.
EQT just completed the acquisition of OX2 in Sweden for a SEK16.1Bn valuation and will support OX2’ strategy to evolve from a pure developer into an integrated renewables developer and asset owner.
One of the key common element of those 4 transactions is the shareholder base: founder or early bird investors need the support of the giant PE Infrastructure fund to develop their business and have access to financing. In all these four transactions, current major shareholders are sealing deals with the PE Funds and re-investing part of their proceeds into the SPV created.
In Europe, there remains some independent small / mid-caps companies involved in the design, installation, production, and distribution of electricity:
- ERG SPA (ERG IM): EUR3.5Bn market cap. Company with presence in Italy, France & Germany. ERG main shareholder is SQ Renewables Spa, an SPV under the Australian IFM Pension fund.
- Solaria Energia(SLR SM): EUR1.6Bn market cap. Company with presence in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Uruguay. SLR main shareholder is DTL Corporacion Sl with a 34.91% stake.
- Voltalia SA (VLTSA FP): EUR1.2Bn market cap with presence in Europe and Latin America. VLTSA main shareholder is Creadev SASV with a 71.3% stake (Mulliez / Auchan Family).
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Volkswagen plans to close at least 3 German plants and cut thousands of jobs
Europe’s largest carmaker tells works council it would slash pay by 10%
Volkswagen plans to shut at least three German plants, axe tens of thousands of jobs and slash pay by 10 per cent, the company’s top employee representative said on Monday.
The restructuring would mark the first closure of domestic plants in the company’s 87-year history and set up a battle with powerful unions and politicians in Germany, where VW has 300,000 employees.
VW’s management has warned that radical measures are needed as Europe’s largest carmaker faces intense competition in China, slowing sales across other major markets and the need to navigate the costly transition to electric vehicles. It recently issued its second profit warning in three months.
Daniela Cavallo, the head of VW’s works council, on Monday told staff at the company’s main Wolfsburg plant that executives had two days to reverse its plans, as she hinted at future strikes.
She said chief executive Oliver Blume was “playing with the massive risk that . . . we will break off the talks and do what a workforce has to do when it fears for its existence”.
The works council represents VW employees and holds half the seats on the supervisory board.
The plants to be shut will come from 10 that mainly supply the carmaker’s core brand VW brand, according to a spokesperson for the works council.
VW first signalled in September that it was considering shutting German plants but analysts have remained sceptical given the strong opposition from politicians and the works council.
In a statement on Monday, Thomas Schäfer, the head of the company’s VW brand, said some of its German plants were twice as costly to run than those of rival carmakers.
“We are currently earning too little money from our cars,” he said. “At the same time, our costs for energy, materials and personnel have continued to rise. This calculation cannot work in the long term.”
VW declined to comment on the possible plant closures on Monday, referring to a previous statement that they cannot be ruled out.
Thorsten Gröger, chief negotiator at IG Metall, Europe’s largest union, warned that the cost-cutting would provoke “resistance of a kind it could never imagine”.
Politicians pointed to VW’s management for decisions that had contributed to the company’s current crisis. A spokesperson for the German government said Chancellor Olaf Scholz had been clear that “possible wrong management decisions in the past must not be to the detriment of employees”.
The parliamentary group for Scholz’s Social Democratic party echoed that view, with Verena Hubertz, SPD’s spokesperson on economic policy, saying: “The workers shouldn’t have to take the rap if management makes the wrong decisions.”
She said Scholz would on Tuesday hold “confidential talks with business and the unions” over safeguarding jobs and “ensuring that future investments are made in Germany”.
The German state of Lower Saxony, a significant shareholder with control of 20 per cent of the voting rights, has previously said its priority is maintaining jobs and has often sided with the works council.
Matthias Schmidt, an independent car analyst, predicted that following negotiations with the works council and the unions in coming weeks VW would probably end up closing two plants. “They are using some type of political manoeuvring to get a deal they want,” he added.
Like German rivals Mercedes-Benz and BMW, VW faces falling profits in China as consumers cut spending and local brands such as BYD take market share.
The German group, which reports its quarterly results on Wednesday, now expects an operating profit margin of about 5.6 per cent in 2024, down from its earlier forecast of 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent.
In a sign of the deepening pressures in the Chinese market, Porsche, which is majority owned by VW, on Friday reported a 41 per cent plunge in quarterly profits.
Meta Develops AI Search Engine to Lessen Reliance on Google, Microsoft
The Takeaway
• Meta is crawling the web so its AI chatbot can answer questions on current events
• The work aims to avoid relying on Google and Bing for real-time information
• Meta has been working on web crawling for at least eight months
As Meta Platforms tries to keep up with OpenAI in developing artificial intelligence, the Facebook owner is working on a search engine that crawls the web to provide conversational answers about current events to people using its Meta AI chatbot.
In doing so, Meta hopes to lower its reliance on Google Search and Microsoft’s Bing, which currently provide information about news, sports and stocks to people using Meta AI, according to a person who has spoken with the search engine team. It could also give Meta a backup option if Google or Microsoft withdrew from these arrangements, according to a person who has been involved with the strategy.
The efforts show the lengths to which Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is going to reduce Meta’s need for other major technology providers. Zuckerberg has been stung by Meta’s dependence on another big tech firm, Apple, which several years ago made it harder for Meta to generate ad revenue through its iPhone apps.
In another potential step toward divesting from Google and Bing, Meta recently struck a deal with news agency Reuters to help Meta AI answer questions about current events and news.
Spokespeople for Meta and Google declined to comment. A Microsoft spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
It isn’t clear whether Meta pays Google or Microsoft for powering answers to questions to its chatbot. Zuckerberg said in an interview in April that “there’s not a ton of money flowing either way” between Meta and Google, without elaborating.
Whatever the situation now, Meta may be concerned about what could happen in the future. People are increasingly using AI apps such as ChatGPT in lieu of traditional search engines such as Google. To handle topical queries that require web access, OpenAI relies on Bing, whose owner is OpenAI’s biggest outside shareholder.
Meta AI is the centerpiece of Meta’s strategy to capitalize on the boom in conversational AI and increase the time people spend on its apps. Meta hopes to eventually develop AI to power agents that can perform complex tasks without humans, such as developing software or helping businesses advertise on Meta’s apps. The chatbot is prominently positioned on Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger.
Zuckerberg said in August that Meta AI has more than 185 million weekly active users. That suggests it is catching up to ChatGPT, which OpenAI said this month has more than 250 million weekly active users. People likely use the two chatbots for different purposes, since Meta’s is built into its social media apps, while software engineers frequently use ChatGPT to generate or vet code.
Meta AI’s search engine team—which has been led by senior engineering manager Xueyuan Su—has been working on accessing websites and then organizing their pages into databases, a process known as web indexing, for at least eight months, according to the person who has spoken with the team. Meta AI will eventually be able to access those web indices to answer relevant questions. The team’s existence hasn’t been previously reported.
Meta’s web-crawler technology has been publicly disclosed since at least July. Meta says it uses a crawler bot “for use cases such as training AI models or improving products by indexing content directly.” Some websites, including The New York Times, have blocked the bot from accessing their content.
Hindenburg Research <info@hindenburgresearch.com>
Aaron Wagner And Wags Capital: From Pro Football To Utah's Latest Disgraced Financial Influencer
As some readers of Hindenburg may be aware, we got our start in the world of fraud research by investigating suspected Ponzi schemes and private market fraud, including multiple firms and individuals later charged criminally or civilly by regulators. On October 24th, Aaron Wagner, a social media financial influencer, and claimed successful entrepreneur managing $1 billion in investor assets, was arrested and taken into jail, per Salt Lake City’s prison inmate lookup.
The Department of Justice unsealed a complaint that had been filed the previous day alleging wire fraud. Per the complaint, Wagner diverted funds raised from an investor—that were supposed to be used to build certain restaurants—to instead purchase a private plane. We are glad to see the DoJ take swift action and hope these steps help maximize recovery for any of Wagner’s aggrieved investors.
We began researching Wagner in August 2023, following outreach from multiple whistleblowers who reported how he had misrepresented his investment performance, falsified financial records, and illicitly skimmed investor assets. We examined these issues in addition to evidence that he fabricated key elements of his background.
Today, we are publishing some of our findings to hopefully shed more light on the story of Aaron Wagner.
Read The Full Report Here
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Beware the tricky business of distressed M&A
Potential buyers may end up negotiating deals with the target’s lenders and bondholders instead of its shareholders
M&A negotiations are never easy. Dealing with distressed debt hedge funds takes the pain to another level. Numerous companies will increasingly be unable to refinance debt that they borrowed in a low rate environment. As such, their equity values are hovering around zero. But their underlying businesses remain attractive to rivals at the right price.
Those potential buyers are then going to end up negotiating deals with the target’s lenders and bondholders instead of its shareholders. That dynamic is at play right now in the merger between the US satellite TV players, Dish Network and DirecTV. It may soon be the situation if Frontier Airlines again goes after the teetering Spirit Airlines.
These debtholders are contractually owed 100 cents of the dollar of their claims. But instead, they are going to be asked to swallow hard to take haircuts, with the cudgel of an ugly bankruptcy filing in the background. Each buyer and seller knows they are better off together. But creditors are tougher negotiators than shareholders since they are anchored to getting back every dollar that was promised when they made their respective loans.
DirecTV has told bondholders holding just under $10bn of Dish bonds that they must accept a $1.6bn discount on their claim, payable in swapped new debt. That impairment and resulting valuation, says the private equity owner of DirecTV, is what they believe solves both the fair value of Dish and the amount of leverage the new combined Dish/DirecTV can shoulder. Dish creditors are baulking and, of course for the private equity firm, every dollar of debt haircut is one more dollar of value transferred for them.
In the case of Spirit Airlines, it has public shareholders and a current market value of $300mn. That is against more than $7bn of total leases and debt. According to news reports, a merger with Frontier could happen through a negotiated bankruptcy filing or out of court. The problem with buying the equity in a regular way is that would require Frontier to make the debt whole when it currently trades at steep discounts to par.
The positive market value put on Spirit merely is a cheap call option on a miracle outcome for shareholders. Far more likely is that Frontier is currently doing the maths on how much of a loss can it force on to Spirit bondholders, who will fear a standalone bankruptcy.
Research Calls I
-
Upgrades:
- AAON (AAON) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $130
- Alaska Air (ALK) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Melius; tgt $56
- Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $67
- Aon (AON) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $377
- Community Financial System (CBU) upgraded to Strong Buy from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $67
- Dover (DOV) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $227
- Federated Hermes (FHI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen; tgt raised to $46
- Kinsale Capital (KNSL) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $535
- NIO (NIO) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie; tgt $6.60
- Nutanix (NTNX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $72
-
Downgrades:
- CDW (CDW) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $235
- Ciena (CIEN) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $63
- CNX Resources (CNX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt lowered to $34
- Colgate-Palmolive (CL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel; tgt lowered to $101
- Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
- GlobalFoundries (GFS) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $43
- HomeTrust Bank (HTBI) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
- Honeywell (HON) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
- Newmont Corporation (NEM) downgraded to Neutral from Sector Outperform at CIBC (Friday)
- NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim; tgt lowered to $22
- TriNet Group (TNET) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham
- United Micro (UMC) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
- WEX (WEX) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
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Others:
- Antero Resources (AR) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $36
- Bowlero (BOWL) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt $12
- Ceragon (CRNT) initiated with a Buy at ROTH MKM; tgt $4.50
- CNX Resources (CNX) resumed with an Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt $34
- Comstock (CRK) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $14
- Core Scientific (CORZ) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $19
- EQT Corp. (EQT) resumed with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $50
- Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) resumed with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $114
- FrontView REIT (FVR) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $22
- FrontView REIT (FVR) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $23
- FrontView REIT (FVR) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $21
- National Fuel Gas (NFG) resumed with an Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt $62
- Navigator Holdings (NVGS) initiated with a Buy at Alliance Global Partners; tgt $24
- Performance Food Group (PFGC) resumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $92
- Qorvo (QRVO) resumed with a Buy at Needham; tgt $135
- Range Resources (RRC) resumed with a Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $34
- Serve Robotics (SERV) initiated with a Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; tgt $16
- StandardAero (SARO) initiated with a Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $34
- StandardAero (SARO) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $34
- StandardAero (SARO) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $38
- StandardAero (SARO) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $33
- StandardAero (SARO) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $37
- StandardAero (SARO) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $34
- StandardAero (SARO) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $36
- StandardAero (SARO) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein; tgt $39