BNP expects ECB to conduct QE in 2014
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Publicis CEO Sees No Big Improvement in 4Q French Ads: Reuters 2013-12-03 09:45:29.526 GMT
By Blanche Gatt Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Publicis CEO Maurice Levy says he doesn’t expect French ad market to improve materially in 4Q, says the market seems “weak, a little depressed,” Reuters reports on website. * Levy was speaking at a conference today, Reuters says * Ad markets south of Belgium are “going badly,” with double-digit percentage declines in ad spending in Italy, Spain, Levy said, according to Reuters
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To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net
{http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903302604579233990748865878.html?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_1}
While gold languishes, bitcoin is shooting higher. Can the digital currency keep its momentum, or will gold recover on a bitcoin collapse?
In January, bitcoin was trading around $13. By November, it was at $200, and it had soared past $1,200 by Thanksgiving before backing down. Is bitcoin the wave of the future, or nothing more than digital tulips? One look at the chart says the present is fraught with extreme risk that cuts both ways. While we cannot know if the next stop for bitcoin is $2,000 or $200, one thing for sure is it is a chart that none of us have ever seen live and in person (see Chart 1).
Without getting into the details, bitcoin is a new currency traded against the dollar, yen, euro and every other currency around the world. It is not minted by any government and by extension it cannot be diluted by central bank money printing or other government policies. Bitcoin fans say that (apparent) invulnerability could help it replace gold as a store of value. If you recall the initial public offering of Netscape two decades ago, or even of Google(ticker: GOOG) one decade ago, early trading in a true innovation can be quite frenzied. Prices increase at geometric rates. In today's marketplace, bitcoin seems to have taken that dynamic to the limit with a near-vertical ascent and a host of analysts crying "bubble." On the charts, we do see meteoric ascents from time to time, and usually they do not end well. A good example is Sodastream (SODA) in 2011. The young stock rallied from roughly 25 to 80 in just a few months' time and just as quickly was trading back down near 30. I call it "parabolic up, parabolic down," others call it an "Eiffel Tower" pattern. Briefly last week, the price of bitcoin exceeded the price of an ounce of gold. While it makes for great headlines, the comparison is not any more valid than comparing gold to the level of the Standard & Poor's 500, or apples to wildebeest. None of it makes sense. You cannot hold an ounce of bitcoin on your hand. But the hoopla over the event did underscore the sentiment now surrounding this market. I am not commenting on the viability, liability, or buyability of a new system of money, but only the technicals surrounding it. Even though the public is largely unaware of this market, those investors involved with it show an extreme level of bullishness. Extreme bullishness creates an environment where any bad news can be devastating to prices. Gold, as mentioned, has been suffering, and whether bitcoin has played a role is up for debate. The trend has been down for nearly two years and it is hard to make a case from a simple price action perspective that this market is close to turning around for the better (see Chart 2). But in a strange twist, the new love for bitcoin and its spawned additional dislike for gold may be just what will change the metal's fortunes for the better.
Without inflation, war, a sinking dollar, or intense demand for the commodity – traditional conditions under which precious metals flourish – gold has shed all but its most devoted fans. Sentiment is as dour as ever, so the idea that bitcoin is putting in the final nail in the coffin could create a contrarian's dream setup in the near future. But sentiment is merely an environment. Only price action can set a buy trigger, and for now, the few remaining gold bugs will have to wait.
Perhaps bitcoin, not gold, is indeed the future of money. But given that the bitcoin parabola is similar to that of the Dutch tulip bulb mania in 1637, (See Chart 3) the dangers of buying into a bubble are the same as attempting to sell it short. It could double from here just as easily as it could fall by half. Timing must be perfect with these levels of volatility and risk. Investors might consider waiting for a significant shakeout in bitcoin before taking the plunge. Or they can follow gold lower as they wait for a spark that triggers a massive short squeeze as bears rush to cover their bets. On the charts, both markets seem to be at critical levels, where major reversals or major accelerations – up for bitcoin and down for gold – may be in the offing.
SIE GY diving...
SIE GY RMR MKT TALK PROFIT WARN
Bernstein Initiate Carrefour with Underperform reco today...
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Carrefour, H&M Best Retail Ideas for Barclays in 2014 2013-12-03 08:24:14.12 GMT
By Heather Burke Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays says in note Carrefour best food retail idea for 2014, H&M best general retail idea. * Says Carrefour may have upside potential in 2014, sees performances continuing to improve in France, will continue to regain market share * Says H&M’s U.S. online start in Aug., possible global roll- out in 2014 may help sales, profits in S-T, L-T; cost structure has become more efficient, any rev. growth will now have a more positive effect on earnings
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Daimler, Peugeot Top EU Auto Picks; Avoid BMW, Renault: Exane 2013-12-03 08:00:11.528 GMT
By Brian Lysaght Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Outperform picks are Daimler, Peugeot, Faurecia, Exane says in note re-initiating coverage on EU autos. * Key underperform picks are BMW, Fiat and Renault * EU autos are good value relative to cap goods, trading 15% below long-term PE of 11x: Exane * Sees Europe as pricing “bright spot” in 2014-15 as stabilizing demand coincides with capacity cuts; premium autos pricing won’t benefit, will be flat * Daimler has pricing/cost advantages, consensus on FCF, margin is too low; Peugeot benefits from improved EU pricing, Chinese div. * BMW “lost in stagnation” next year; Renault, Fiat face pricing challenges in emerging markets: Exane * See yday: EU Autos Reach 26-Yr High in Nov.; Peugeot, Conti Lead Gains {NSN MX6JP46S972I <go>} * NOTE: SXAP index up 36% ytd, best of 19 SXXP groups
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To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Lysaght in London at +44-20-7330-7908 or blysaght@bloomberg.net
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The Labor Department will release its latest unemployment data this Friday. But it won’t put a note in the news release saying that its jobless figures might have been fabricated. So I’ll write the note for the department, which is, understandably, shy about the whole matter. Warning: The unemployment numbers you see in this press release may have been fabricated. In fact, the jobless rate that seems so important to the Federal Reserve, economists, businesses and so many others might have been a joke for years. Use these numbers at your own risk. You might want to keep this note handy when the Labor Department announces the new jobless rate for November, which “experts” expect to fall to 7.2 percent from October’s 7.3 percent rate. The Fed seems to be aiming for a rate in the mid-6 percent range before it starts cutting back on its bond-buying disaster in the making known as quantitative easing. Basing any decision on the unemployment rate was ludicrous even before I broke the news a couple of weeks ago that someone had been caught fabricating the interviews with households. The rate has always been subject to statistical manipulation. If someone stops looking for work, for instance, he’s no longer unemployed in the eyes of the Labor Department. On the flip side, the jobless rate would go up if the economy improved as people suddenly would become more optimistic and start looking for a job after having given up. What I uncovered a few weeks ago is quite another thing: the outright falsification of the unemployment data, which is not only indefensible but also unimaginable. To refresh your mind, I learned that a guy named Julius Buckmon, who worked as a Census Bureau surveyor in Washington, had been caught in 2011 handing in fabricated interviews. And not just a couple. Buckmon was a workaholic, producing four times as many interviews each month as his peers. That was not hard, since Buckmon didn’t bother to actually interview most of the people. Buckmon, who has left Census, said that he was told to make up interviews by a supervisor. That supervisor’s actions were then covered up by another supervisor. The Census Bureau didn’t bother to tell the Labor Department about any of this. Labor learned about it from my column and the convulsion that followed. Both Census supervisors are still on the job, although a source tells me that Supervisor No. 1 — the one Buckmon directly blamed — has been barred from doing work for the Labor Department. There’s no telling how many survey-takers like Buckmon were taking orders from these supervisors, so there is no way of knowing how much of the data were corrupted. Buckmon told me that he never came into contact with any other survey-takers, so he didn’t know if others were also faking it. A whistle-blower who spoke to me and who is now presumably talking with congressional investigators says the deceit continued after Buckmon was gone. And, this source says, survey-takers and supervisors knew that higher-ups wanted the jobless rate to come down before the 2012 election. And that’s exactly what the rate did, showing an astounding drop just two months before President Obama was put back into office. I published my first column about Buckmon and the other accusations on Nov. 19. The Census Bureau would have been finishing up its November employment survey around that time — so these folks wouldn’t have been on their best behavior when producing the numbers coming out on Friday. As far as I’m concerned, anything coming from the BLS is legit, although I have questioned some of the group’s statistical tricks over the years. But anything coming directly from the Labor Department or Census — don’t trust it! Both are headed by political appointees. - If you haven’t seen it already, catch an online piece written on Nov. 12 by Judge Jed Rakoff, who presides over many of the Wall Street trials in Manhattan. The headline is “Why Have No High Level Executives Been Prosecuted in Connection With the Financial Crisis?” I’ve asked that question plenty, both in this column and, occasionally, while wandering aimlessly around the streets of New York. “In conclusion, I want to stress again that I have no idea whether the financial crisis that is still causing so many of us so much pain and despondency was the product, in whole or in part, of fraudulent misconduct,” wrote Rakoff. “But if it was — as various government authorities have asserted it was — then, the failure of the government to bring to justice those responsible for such colossal fraud bespeaks weaknesses in our prosecutorial system that need to be addressed,” added Rakoff. With my apologies to the judge, let me explain this better: The fraud that caused our nation’s worst financial crisis in generations was caused by Wall Street firms, which — along with the people who run them — contribute heavily to political campaigns. So if you ever had a doubt that rich people are treated better than others in the American legal system, you shouldn’t doubt any more. But thanks, Judge Rakoff.
It looks like Steve Cohen, the founder of the $14 billion SAC Capital Advisors, may have gotten some protection from his boys. Cohen’s top lieutenant, Michael Steinberg, on trial for insider trading in Manhattan federal court, and his research analyst Jon Horvath debated what to tell the mega-investor about the inside information they had on Dell, Horvath testified Monday. The analyst’s inside information on Dell indicated the company would miss analysts’ estimates when it reported earnings in August 2008. That differed from the positive view others at the hedge-fund giant had on Dell, which led SAC and Cohen to take a big long position in the stock. In an email to Horvath on Aug. 25, Steinberg, a portfolio manager, wrote that he hadn’t mentioned any of Horvath’s Dell information to Cohen and that “I’d like to properly weigh the risk-reward of doing so.” To explain the difference between his view and others inside SAC, the next day Horvath wrote an email to Steinberg’s group saying that he had a “2nd hand read” that Dell would miss analysts’ estimates. Steinberg, who the government claims knew the Dell info was illegal, responded: “Yes, normally we would never divulge data like this so please be discreet.” Steinberg, facing up to 20 years in prison, denies the charges. The email was later forwarded to Cohen, although that was not produced as evidence in court — nor was the fact that Cohen sold his entire Dell position. By Aug. 28, Steinberg had shorted Dell — a $10 million, position that earned $1 million profit, the prosecution said earlier. “Nice job on Dell,” Cohen wrote Steinberg. Later that year, Cohen and Steinberg argued again about Dell in an instant-message exchange that was shown to jurors. When Cohen questioned Steinberg’s then-bullish view on Dell, the portfolio manager responded, “I have an analyst that covers the stocks. He has industry contacts.” Cohen replied, “I would prefer to talk on phone.” Steinberg then sent an instant message to Horvath, discussing the exchange with Cohen. “I told him not to be short and he got pissed, drilling me; who is telling me business is ok. I said Jon has a number of industry contacts and that is what he has heard through supply datapoints and he was not pleased. Total bulls–t,” Steinberg wrote Horvath. Later, Horvath testified that Steinberg told him, “Don’t worry. I told him you had supply datapoints,” which are legitimate sources of information. Horvath said he thought that meant Steinberg wasn’t letting Cohen know he was getting the information from Jesse Tortora, a research analyst at now-defunct hedge fund Diamondback Capital. Tortora, an admitted insider trader in the corrupt circle who testified last week, was Horvath’s Dell source. Horvath has pleaded guilty to insider trading charges and is the government’s star witness against Steinberg. Cohen has not been charged with any crimes. While SAC has loomed large at the much-watched trial, Monday was the first time the billionaire investor’s name was mentioned.
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Vodafone Unlikely to Remain Independent, Bernstein Says 2013-12-02 09:17:57.288 GMT
By Sam Chambers Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- After Vodafone’s Verizon Wireless sale and capex hike, it’s hard to make a credible investment case for co. as a standalone and a bid from AT&T and/or SoftBank will probably materialize, Bernstein says. * Says AT&T may find it difficult and time consuming to secure regulatory/political approvals for a deal, due to VOD’s multiple territories and the NSA spying scandal * NOTE: In 2011, AT&T pulled its $39b bid for T-Mobile USA after encountering regulatory opposition * If no bid materializes in the S/T, VOD could sell individual assets; Vodacom to Orange, India to Telenor, Australia to Hutchison, Egypt to Etisalat all possible, Bernstein says * Says this simplification of its portfolio would then make VOD more attractive for AT&T and less attractive for SoftBank, who are chasing scale * NOTE: AT&T said to be laying groundwork internally for a potential takeover of Vodafone * NOTE: AT&T may offer a healthy premium for VOD: Bernstein
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