>>> STAN LN, -1.5% to 1409: statement, just hit the tape.

STAN LN, -1.5% to 1409: statement, just hit the tape.

Standard Chartered Sees FY Income ’Broadly Flat’

Standard Chartered says 2H impairment to be greater than 1H. - NOTE: Standard Chartered 2012 rev rose 8.2% - Analysts see 2013 rev rising 2.4% - 2013 rev. est. $19.52b (31 ests): Bloomberg data - NOTE: Stock down 10% YTD vs SX7P up 17%

(BFW) Vivendi’s SFR May Face Start of New Downgrade Cycle, UBS Says

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Vivendi’s SFR May Face Start of New Downgrade Cycle, UBS Says 2013-12-04 07:40:19.891 GMT

By Blanche Gatt Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Vivendi’s SFR faces strong competition on 4G from Iliad, which offered its 4G service yday including unlimited voice/SMS/20GB of data for same price of existing 3G product, UBS says in note. * UBS says Iliad 4G service offered at 50%/60% discount to peers * Says EU20-EU30 premium charged by SFR, peers, for 4G vs 3G is unsustainable; they’ll probably include 4G in low- cost offers * While this may limit churn to Iliad, it may cause service rev. drop to accelerate given “cannibalisation” of SFR’s own high-end offers * Scenario “could get worse” if Iliad starts its own subsidized handset offers * Reiterates neutral, PT EU16; still “cautious” on SFR * NOTE Dec. 1: French Ministry to Discuss Network Sharing by SFR-Bouygues: JDD * NOTE Nov. 26: Vivendi May Distribute SFR Shrs To Own Holders in Demerger * Nov. 27: Vivendi De-Merger to Prompt Re-Rating, Offer 50% Upside: Liberum * Nov. 27: Vivendi Jumps on De-Merger Confirmation, Bollore Appointment

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--Editor: Jurjen van de Pol

To contact the reporter on this story: Blanche Gatt in London at +44-20-7392-0351 or bgatt@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net

FT : Should AT&T buy Vodafone?

Should AT&T buy Vodafone? Link to article {http://on.ft.com/1eO4TCz}

Vodafone chief executive Vittorio Colao must be tired of being asked: “What exactly is AT&T doing?” For investors in the UK telecoms group, whether AT&T will mount a takeover bid is the only strategic question that matters, now that Vodafone has agreed the $130bn sale of its Verizon Wireless stake. AT&T shareholders are likewise intrigued by the US group’s very public interest in the European mobile telecoms market. Both Mr Colao and Randall Stephenson, his counterpart at AT&T, have been tight-lipped. AT&T has looked at options, according to people with knowledge of the group, even if detailed work is unlikely to begin until after Vodafone completes its Verizon stake sale next year. Mr Stephenson will need to weigh the pros and cons of what would be one of the biggest ever UK buyouts. Should AT&T buy Vodafone?

* The case for an AT&T bid for Vodafone Ready and waiting Vodafone’s full-year results in May are likely to show the biggest post-tax profit ever for a UK company, of up to £70bn according to Citi. Not a bad start for a company that would inevitably be portrayed as a work in progress should it be acquired.

AT&T wants to make transformational deals across Europe’s mobile markets. Vodafone fits the bill like no other – or at least no contender that could realistically be acquired given governments’ reluctance to allow the sale of national infrastructure owners such as Telefónica’s O2 or France Telecom’s Orange. There is no state or corporate poison pill within Vodafone. Indeed the company has made itself more attractive financially by recently consolidating £18bn of tax assets into its balance sheet. Management strategy is broadly aligned: both want to invest heavily in next-generation mobile networks to deliver high-speed internet connections.

Mr Colao already attempted a US merger less than a year ago when he tried to persuade Verizon to combine rather than buy the US business, and is not seen as philosophically opposed to a merger. “If somebody comes and says, ‘You have really beautiful assets,’ then I will agree,” Mr Colao told a conference last month. “We have beautiful assets.” The shareholder base has moved against those wishing to keep Vodafone independent, with US hedge funds betting on an AT&T merger displacing some European funds reluctant to own Verizon shares. Other shareholders may prefer a merger to the hard grind of an independent Vodafone making huge future investments.

* Sector shifts

The European economy is improving, and telecoms services will likewise recover as people become more comfortable with buying higher-priced mobile and broadband plans. Europe is only at the beginning of a shift to 4G networks that allow rapid mobile internet services. As Mr Stephenson noted in a speech where he described Europe as “fascinating right now”, mobile internet has not yet taken off as in the US. “If somebody were to invest aggressively in mobile broadband in Europe would the demographic not lead to the same type of result as in the United States? And I believe fundamentally, yes, it will.” Any deal would be part of a wider consolidation of the European telecoms market accelerated by money coming to the region from groups such as Liberty Global and Hutchison Whampoa. Regulations could also turn in favour of the sector, with recognition among Brussels lawmakers that the industry needs help to bolster investment, and the hope that competition authorities will allow consolidation in Germany. A favourable decision will be a game changer for the sector, which has long lobbied that regional strength would only result from mergers.

* Cowboys, Brits (and Ninjas)

Analysts say AT&T believes in the importance of scale – and consequently of increasing earnings per share through acquisitions. This makes sense to an extent, with larger telecoms groups winning buying power with equipment providers and wider customer reach, and enabling technology services and content deals. There is also an argument for geographical diversification at a time when the US market could slow down. The basic figures look sensible. “A straight acquisition of Vodafone at a 7 times earnings multiple could be accretive for AT&T with fair value accounting and a lot of help from tax assets,” say analysts at Bernstein. Financial markets would also be supportive of this strategy at a point when institutional funds are awash with investors’ cash that could be deployed in supporting a bid. AT&T would have little difficulty raising debt, meanwhile. Analysts also point to an “evangelical desire” to cure Europe of the sins of previous managements with some “American knowhow”. The cowboys, in the words of one analyst, are on their way. And if the Americans do not make their move fast, there is a growing belief among analysts of rival bid interest from Japan’s SoftBank.

* The case against a bid

Synergies and strategies

Some analysts question the extent of synergies from merging two businesses on different continents. They say AT&T already has sufficient scale and buying power with equipment makers, and larger telecom groups are not necessarily more profitable. Financially, Vodafone’s tax assets may not be useful unless the proudly American telecoms group relocates to Europe. Any repatriation of cash to the US may face tax hurdles. Vodafone is in the middle of a strategic diversification into fixed-line telecoms unlikely to be of interest to the mobile-focused AT&T. It is too late to reverse the acquisition of Kabel Deutschland in Germany, for example, while Vodafone is committed to fixed-line businesses in countries such as Italy and Portugal. Also questionable is how interested AT&T will be in Vodafone’s operations in India and Africa, as well as in Australia. There could be buyers such as América Móvil in India and Orange in Africa, however, while fixed-line businesses could interest Liberty Global. Even with possible disposals, Vodafone would not be bought cheaply – as the wily Mr Colao has made clear. AT&T will have to pay a premium to Vodafone shares already buoyed by M&A talk. Citi estimates a bid price of 290p, which equates to about £90bn for the whole of Vodafone after taking into account payouts to shareholders from the Verizon sale. Bernstein, meanwhile, prices a bid at between 240p-280p.

Here be Dragons!

Europe has been the undoing of many acquisitive international telecoms groups – most recently at América Móvil, which is nursing heavy losses after investments in KPN and Telekom Austria. This is not even the first time for AT&T, which worked with América Móvil on a failed buyout of Telecom Italia in 2007. AT&T could be wrong footed by the highly regulated markets of Europe at a time when the industry is arguing over reforms that will scrap roaming revenues. The lack of a single language or dominant regional authority undermines both marketing scale and organisational certainty, while AT&T’s management has already complained about local spectrum auctions that fracture the regional market. There is no certainty over consolidation rules. AT&T’s supply-side view of how to fix the European telecoms market could be wrong in the short term. Espirito Bank said last week that Europe’s mobile market was demand, rather than supply, constrained. Extra supply could therefore even undermine any nascent revenue recovery. The “build it and they will come” theory has yet to be proven for 4G mobile networks in Europe, even if there is evidence elsewhere in the world. The need for capital expenditure could drag down returns in the short term, with the danger that the £7bn earmarked for network expenditure by Vodafone is just the beginning of recurring costs. Any advantage from superior network investment could anyway be shortlived; telecoms companies tend to invest fastest when rivals are already doing so.

Defend the castle

Vodafone shareholders may vote to maintain the status quo given the prospect of a recovery in the company’s revenues. Financial performance should improve as regulated constraints on revenues from cuts to mobile termination rates and roaming charges fade and the economy improves. Vodafone may have sold its best business in the US, but the management has achieved a very good price and secured a considerable war chest to boost operations. Vodafone shareholders may want to see the outcome of the £7bn “project spring” plan to invest in rapid mobile data infrastructure and fixed-line broadband. And others may just want to see the company remain independent and UK-listed. Any latent nationalisation could be stimulated by politicians worried about the sale of one of the UK’s last global technology champions. Elsewhere in Europe, there are national security concerns about a US group buying its way into strong positions in markets such as Germany. Regulatory approval of the deal in all the many countries where vodafone operates could be arduous.

FT : Europe to unleash heavy rate-fixing fines

Brussels will unveil hefty fines as soon as Wednesday on global banks that allegedly formed cartels to rig two global interest rate benchmarks, in a settlement that is set to break European antitrust enforcement records. The latest crackdown on benchmark manipulation is expected to target up to 10 financial institutions. Some will admit wrongdoing while others will face formal charges alleging they colluded to fix Euribor, Yen Libor or both. The exact level of fines remains confidential, but the commission has warned some banks it is seeking combined fines of hundreds of millions of euros for those groups involved in both cartels.

The decision will be announced by Joaquín Almunia, the EU competition commissioner, will add to the escalating costs of a scandal that has rocked the financial sector. The multi-bank deal will also provide a more comprehensive account of alleged collusion between traders at different institutions, people familiar with the settlements said.

Each of the two cases – one focused on the Yen Libor and the other on Libor’s European sister benchmark – involve around half a dozen banks or brokers, the people said. Most banks involved – including Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Bank, Société Générale and Citi – have been discussing a settlement that would see them fined for attempting to act in concert to rig the benchmarks and profit from related interest rate derivatives. Barclays will avoid a fine for Euribor manipulation while UBS will not be fined for Yen Libor because they alerted EU officials to the illegal practices. But both banks will admit wrongdoing, a move that could still leave them vulnerable to private damages claims in the courts. Some banks – JPMorgan, HSBC and Crédit Agricole – have been involved in the talks but were last month balking at signing a joint Euribor settlement. Banks that hold out are expected to face formal charges that could pave the way for fines at a later stage. Interdealer broker ICAP is not part of the joint settlement. The announcement will be an unwelcome reminder of past sins for an industry still struggling to cope with a series of scandals ranging from mis-selling of mortgage-backed securities and consumer products to alleged manipulation of foreign exchange benchmarks. The European Commission decision is to be formally adopted by the college of commissioners on Wednesday, according to the meeting agenda. The exact level of fines remains confidential and it not even known by the banks involved. But the commission warned some banks that it is seeking a fine of as much as €800m each for groups involved in both cartels. The range of fines for the individual banks will vary significantly and depends on a mix of culpability and leniency for co-operation. Once the investigation is complete and all banks are fined, the penalty is expected to break antitrust records in Europe; to date the highest combined EU fine for a cartel is around €1.5bn. One person familiar with the case said the fines for Yen Libor are expected to be significantly smaller than the penalties for Euribor manipulation. There are EU guidelines for calculating cartel fines but the rules have never been applied to markets in financial instruments. The commission can impose a maximum penalty equivalent to 10 per cent of a company’s global turnover for each cartel it is found to be involved with. Four banks – Barclays, RBS, UBS, Rabobank – and broker ICAP have already paid a total of $3.5bn in fines to settle with regulators around for world for Libor-related abuses. However, the EU antitrust authorities have not been party to those deals and for three years pursued their own investigation relating to breaches of antitrust law. A third EU cartel probe into alleged Swiss franc Libor abuses is still in progress. Unlike US antitrust regulators, Brussels will not settle with individual cartel members and it only concludes cases simultaneously with all or most of the companies involved. Those banks refusing to settle would face formal charges – a so-called statement of objections – that could eventually lead to an antitrust ruling and a fine. The main incentive to settle under EU rules is the 10 per cent reduction in fines and a shorter and less detailed charge sheet against the cartel, which limits the potential for private damages claims. Those holding out have the opportunity to fight the charges in commission-organised hearings and eventually to appeal against any decision in the courts. All the banks and the commission declined to comment.

>>> Infostrada may attract bid from Vodafone

Infostrada may attract bid from Vodafone

Infostrada, the Italian Internet and telecoms company, could attract a bid from Vodafone, the listed UK mobile phone group, Italian language daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. The report cited financial sources

The report said that Vodafone sees Infostrada as an alternative investment to Fastweb, the listed Italian telecoms group controlled by Swisscom. The report said that Vodafone considers Swisscom's asking price too high.

The report noted that Infostrada is controlled by Wind, the Italian telecoms group, which is in turn is controlled by the Russian telecoms group Vimpelcom.

Il Sole 24 Ore

(BFW) Tethys Petroleum Says No Hydrocarbons in Kazakhstani Well Dexa

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Tethys Petroleum Says No Hydrocarbons in Kazakhstani Well Dexa 2013-12-04 07:16:58.989 GMT

By Benjamin Dow Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Doto well being prepared for testing. * Kalypso well stimulation, testing to commence mid-Dec. * Co. says new well on Kul-Bas contract area to be drilled in 1H 2014

Link to statement:{NSN MX9SS03V2801 <go>} Link to Company News:{TPL CN <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>} First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Benjamin Dow at +7-495-771-7735 or bdow2@bloomberg.net

>>> What to look at today

US MArket Closed lower with cyclical sectors leading on tyhe downside...Energy was on the only sector up on oil move on news Opec might curb output in 2014...VIX @ 14.55 +2.25%...Brazil -1.75%...Shanghai Composite was the lone index to trade higher, with other markets tracking softer US sentiment. MOFCOM spokesperson said to have announced plans for as many as 18 new free-trade zones, while finalizing 12 free-trade agreements with ASEAN, Singapore, Pakistan, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Iceland and Switzerland, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Commerce Min still in negotiations on 6 agreements: South Korea, Gulf Cooperation Council, Australia and Norway FTA...Shanghai +1.11%... BOJ board member Sato noting that while further policy easing cannot be ruled out, the magnitude of April 2013 launch of QE would be hard to replicate; Does not see need for a preemptive easing if the impact of sales tax hike is temporary. Nikkei225-2.17%

Eur$1.3578 S&P Fut +0.15% European fut+0.2%

Keep an eye on : - AC FP : Accor Raised to Buy at UBS, Sees Better Revpar in Next 2 Yrs - CS FP : AXA CEO Says Company in Line With Mid-Term Plan - AVV LN : Aveva Offers Buying Opportunity; M&A May Loom, Berenberg Says - BMPS IM : Foundation Mulls Paschi Stake Sale Before Dec. 27 Vote: Sole - CLS1 GY : Celesio investor Elliott aims to boost stake, exert influence  - EAD FP : EADS to Compete in NATO Missile Defense System Tender, Welt Says - EKTAB SS : Elekta 2Q Op. Profit, Sales Miss Ests; Keeps FY Forecast - GLPG BB : Galapagos Says Phase 1 Results Positive for GLPG1205 - INGA NA : ING Top Restructuring Stock Among Europe Banks, Nomura Says - SIE GY : Siemens to Deliver Trains as Early as This Month: Sueddeutsche - UCG IM : Avoid Popular, UniCredit a Better Trade, Macquarie Says - VOD LN : Vodafone May Be Looking at Italian Assets: Sole