TheChek News Flow

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I

Upgrades:
- CrowdStrike (CRWD) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $520
- First BanCorp (FBP) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $27
- Fortinet (FTNT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Arete, tgt $104
- Kingfisher (KGFHY) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays
- MSC Industrial (MSM) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc, tgt $117
- Nokia (NOK) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus, tgt $15
- Nutrien (NTR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $85
- OGE Energy (OGE) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $47
- Orsted (DNNGY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
- Rollins (ROL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn, tgt $66
- Sendas Distribuidora S.A. (ASAI) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, tgt $10.50
- Snap (SNAP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn, tgt $10
- Visteon (VC) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $135
Downgrades:
- Adobe (ADBE) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $270
- AMD (AMD) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland, tgt $260
- Americold Realty Trust (COLD) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Barclays, tgt $12
- Campbell's (CPB) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein, tgt $21
- Digital Realty (DLR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC, tgt $210
- Gartner (IT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $171
- GE Vernova (GEV) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at BNP Paribas, tgt $1,190
- Kinsale Capital (KNSL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $357
- KKR Real Estate (KREF) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Citizens
- Lineage (LINE) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $34
- Pinterest (PINS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn, tgt $23
- W. R. Berkley (WRB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
Others:
- BioMarin (BMRN) resumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $120
- Celcuity (CELC) initiated with an Outperform at Citizens, tgt $150
- Cohu (COHU) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $55
- Commvault (CVLT) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies, tgt $105
- DDC Enterprise (DDC) initiated with a Buy at Benchmark, tgt $3
- DoorDash (DASH) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $225
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY) initiated with a Buy at Chardan, tgt $35
- HMH Holding (HMH) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $30
- HMH Holding (HMH) initiated with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $27
- HMH Holding (HMH) initiated with an Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $27
- HMH Holding (HMH) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $32
- Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) initiated with a Buy at Chardan, tgt $4.50
- Kearny Financial (KRNY) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $9.50
- Kopin (KOPN) initiated with a Buy at JonesResearch, tgt $6
- LB Pharmaceuticals (LBRX) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $45
- Matson (MATX) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $230
- Micron (MU) initiated with a Buy at Melius Research
- Mineralys Therapeutics (MLYS) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen
- NervGen Pharma (NGEN) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $18
- Powell (POWL) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $310
- Riot Platforms (RIOT) initiated with a Buy at Chardan, tgt $27.50
- Rubrik (RBRK) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $65
- Rush Enterprises (RUSHA) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research, tgt $88
- SanDisk (SNDK) initiated with a Buy at Melius Research
- Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord, tgt $101
- StubHub (STUB) initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $8.25
- TuHURA Biosciences (HURA) initiated with an Outperform at Citizens, tgt $9

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of April 2026 V3(++)

>>> Up

* Cicor Tech Raised to Buy at Research Partners

* Commerzbank Upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Bank of America

* Coop Pank Raised to Buy at Swedbank; PT 2.80 euros

* Hiab Raised to Buy at DNB Carnegie; PT 65 euros (++)

* Humana Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 50 kronor

* Kingfisher Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 300 pence (+)

* Leonardo PT Raised to 82 euros from 71 euros at Morgan Stanley
* Lifco Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 340 kronor

* Nokia ADRs Raised to Buy at Argus; PT $15

* Olvi Raised to Accumulate at OP Corporate Bank; PT 33 euros (++)

* Orsted Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 185 kroner

* Sartorius Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 250 euros

* Snap Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $10

* Tomra Raised to Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 105 kroner

* Volvo Price Target Raised to SEK 380 from SEK 370 by Bank of America

>>> Down

* ABB Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)

* Apetit Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 12.50 euros

* Castellum Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 130 kronor

* Castellum Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 130 kronor

* Corticeira Amorim Cut to Hold at Bestinver; PT 6.95 euros

* Dof Group Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 151 kroner (+)

* Ferretti Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)

* GE Vernova Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $1,190

* HMS Networks Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 539 kronor

* Holmen PT Cut to 286 kronor from 306 kronor at JPMorgan

* Leroy Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 52 kroner

* Loihde Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 14.60 euros

* Maasoeval Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 36 kroner

* Metrovacesa Cut to Market Perform at Renta 4; PT 12.30 euros (++)

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 300 kronor

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at Nordea

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 315 kronor

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at DNB Carnegie (++)

* NCAB Group Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 76 kronor

* Nexi Cut to Underperform at BofA

* Sainsbury Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 335 pence

* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 335 pence

* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Citi on Weaker Guidance for 2027

* Seche Environnement Cut to Neutral at CIC; PT 85 euros (++)

* Solstad Maritime Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 29 kroner (+)

* Subsea 7 Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 302 kroner

* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 10 euros

* Tomra Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 95 kroner (+)

* Vaisala Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 55 euros

* Vekselbanken Cut to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 500 kroner (++)

* Volvo PT Cut to 280 kronor from 290 kronor at DNB Carnegie (++)
* Wereldhave Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 22 euros

>>> Initiation

* Appear Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 100 kroner
* Posti Group Rated New Accumulate at Inderes; PT 10 euros

* Rentokil Rated New Hold at Investec; PT 510 pence

>>> Call

* Daetwyler Gains as UBS Raises PT on Boost From Healthcare Unit

* Oppenheimer’s Stoltzfus Ups Utilities, Financials to Outperform (++)

* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Say Passive Investors Still Under-Risked (++)

* Systematic Fund Positioning Still Has Room to Run: Deutsche Bank (++)

* Commerzbank Gains as BofA Hikes to Buy on Solid Fundamentals (++)

* Leonardo Undervalued, PT Raised to Street-High at Morgan Stanley
* Nike, Adidas Get More Than Sales Lift From World Cup: Bernstein

* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Citi on Weaker Guidance for 2027

* Sainsbury Double-Downgraded at Goldman, Citi Also Cuts (+)

* Sartorius Risk-Reward Has Shifted, Raised to Buy at Berenberg

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up:
- NTLA +29.5%, OGN +16.4%, MANE +11.7%, LEE +10.4%, ADGM +7.3%, MRT +5.2%, ORKA +4%, NINE +3.8%, BGIN +3.8%, PLSE +3.5%, CPAC +2.8%, CP +2.7%, WRD +2.6%, PONY +1.6%, IONQ +1.5%, NUAI +1.3%, GROY +1.1%
Gapping down:
- CMPX -12.5%, DPZ -4%, SPIR -3%, LODE -1.5%, OPY -1.1%, ONDS -1%, SES -0.9%

(BN) JPMorgan Moves Some Paris Traders to London in Brexit Rethink

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of April 2026 V2(+)

>>> Up

* Cicor Tech Raised to Buy at Research Partners

* Commerzbank Upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Bank of America

* Coop Pank Raised to Buy at Swedbank; PT 2.80 euros

* Humana Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 50 kronor

* Kingfisher Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 300 pence (+)

* Leonardo PT Raised to 82 euros from 71 euros at Morgan Stanley
* Lifco Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 340 kronor

* Nokia ADRs Raised to Buy at Argus; PT $15

* Orsted Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 185 kroner

* Sartorius Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 250 euros

* Snap Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $10

* Tomra Raised to Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 105 kroner

* Volvo Price Target Raised to SEK 380 from SEK 370 by Bank of America

>>> Down

* ABB Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)

* Apetit Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 12.50 euros

* Castellum Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 130 kronor

* Castellum Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 130 kronor

* Corticeira Amorim Cut to Hold at Bestinver; PT 6.95 euros

* Dof Group Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 151 kroner (+)

* Ferretti Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)

* GE Vernova Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $1,190

* HMS Networks Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 539 kronor

* Holmen PT Cut to 286 kronor from 306 kronor at JPMorgan

* Leroy Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 52 kroner

* Loihde Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 14.60 euros

* Maasoeval Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 36 kroner

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 300 kronor

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at Nordea

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 315 kronor

* NCAB Group Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 76 kronor

* Nexi Cut to Underperform at BofA

* Sainsbury Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 335 pence

* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 335 pence

* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Citi on Weaker Guidance for 2027

* Solstad Maritime Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 29 kroner (+)

* Subsea 7 Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 302 kroner

* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 10 euros

* Tomra Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 95 kroner (+)

* Vaisala Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 55 euros
* Wereldhave Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 22 euros

>>> Initiation

* Appear Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 100 kroner
* Posti Group Rated New Accumulate at Inderes; PT 10 euros

* Rentokil Rated New Hold at Investec; PT 510 pence

>>> Call

* Leonardo Undervalued, PT Raised to Street-High at Morgan Stanley
* Nike, Adidas Get More Than Sales Lift From World Cup: Bernstein

* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Citi on Weaker Guidance for 2027

* Sainsbury Double-Downgraded at Goldman, Citi Also Cuts (+)

* Sartorius Risk-Reward Has Shifted, Raised to Buy at Berenberg

>>> La Lettre — 27/04/2026

Résumé La Lettre — 27/04/2026

🇫🇷 Français

1. La Corse, laboratoire coûteux de l'électrification (Exécutif — S. Prigent) L'État a choisi la Corse pour préfigurer le plan d'électrification de Sébastien Lecornu (sortie GPL au 31/12/2038). La LF 2026 y consacre 752 M€ : 600 M€ pour les concessions déficitaires (Engie, ~26 000 clients) et 152 M€ d'aide aux usagers — soit 7 000 € par foyer en moyenne, jugés insuffisants (PAC = 10–15 k€ avant travaux annexes). Deux appels d'offres lancés ; Engie seul candidat à sa succession. Signature des nouvelles DSP attendue fin 2026 après les municipales (Sbraggia réélu à Ajaccio ; Savelli passe la main à Simeoni à Bastia).

2. Coopération défense France–Ukraine (Politique — M. Fauroux) Catherine Vautrin poursuit le travail de Lecornu : mise à disposition du supercalculateur Asgard (Amiad/Rondepierre) à Kiev, initiative Brave1 France–Ukraine pilotée par l'AID (Aufort) sur les moteurs de drones et la sortie des composants chinois. La lettre d'intention Macron–Zelensky du 17/11/2025 (100 Rafale, SAMP/T Thales/MBDA) cible surtout la coproduction drones (Delair, Harmattan AI, Alta Ares). Premier deal concret : JV Shark Robotics / Tencore signée le 21/04. Programme ELISA (drones intercepteurs) lancé le 10/04. Limite : pas de fonds export équivalents aux 15 Mds€ allemands.

3. Place Beauvau étrillée par la Cour des comptes (Exécutif — D. Basso) La note d'exécution budgétaire pointe un risque de décrochage numérique des forces de l'ordre. Crédits IT = 2,3 % du budget Sécurités (~830 M€ en 2025). Sous-exécution massive : gendarmerie –45 % en fonctionnement (–85 M€), investissement 7 M€ seulement ; police –55 % en investissement (46 vs 102 M€ votés). Logiciel XPN (successeur de Scribe) reporté à 2026. Recommandation : doctrine de suivi technique et budgétaire pour la DGPN, DGGN et l'Agence du numérique.

4. Vacance à la questure de l'Assemblée (Mouvement) Le départ de Catherine Leroy au Conseil constitutionnel (recrutée par Ferrand) ouvre le poste stratégique de SG de la questure. Marianne Brun, n°2 actuelle, tient la corde. Décision après la suspension estivale.

5. JP Morgan AM en tête sur Idex (Finance) JP Morgan AM (conseillé par Morgan Stanley) devance TPG et CPPIB dans la course à Idex (Antin Infrastructure) ; Blackstone retiré. Cible : ~4 Mds€ (2× le CA 2025 de 2,1 Mds€). Antin avait acquis Idex pour ~1,2 Md€ en 2018. Synergies attendues avec Getec (allemand, déjà détenu par JPM AM depuis 2022). Offres fermes attendues fin mai.

6. Sarah Knafo signe chez Fayard (Médias — A. Cariou) L'eurodéputée Reconquête ! publiera en septembre chez Fayard (Lise Boëll, Hachette/Bolloré) un ouvrage économique libéral (baisse massive de la dépense publique), inscrit dans la campagne 2027 de Zemmour. Réédition poche du Suicide français le 20/05 et VO US chez Encounter Books le 14/07. Tournée en cours auprès de CroissancePlus (Calmels), Baux-de-Provence, Lyon.

🇬🇧 English

1. Corsica: France's costly electrification testbed (Executive — S. Prigent) The State has selected Corsica to pilot PM Lecornu's electrification plan (full LPG exit by 31/12/2038). The 2026 finance bill earmarks €752M: €600M to subsidize loss-making concessions (Engie, ~26,000 clients) and €152M in consumer aid — averaging €7,000 per household, deemed insufficient (heat pumps cost €10–15k before ancillary works). Two tenders launched; Engie the only successor candidate. New DSP contracts expected end-2026 after the March municipals (Sbraggia re-elected in Ajaccio; Savelli hands over to Simeoni in Bastia).

2. France–Ukraine defense cooperation accelerates (Politics — M. Fauroux) Defense Minister Vautrin continues Lecornu's groundwork: making the Asgard sovereign supercomputer (Amiad/Rondepierre) available to Kyiv; AID's (Aufort) Brave1 France–Ukraine initiative targets drone-engine optimization and Chinese-component substitution. The Nov-17-2025 Macron–Zelensky LOI (100 Rafale, SAMP/T from Thales/MBDA) emphasizes drone coproduction (Delair, Harmattan AI, Alta Ares). First concrete output: Shark Robotics / Tencore JV signed 21/04. The ELISA interceptor-drone program launched 10/04. Key constraint: no €15bn export envelope equivalent to Germany's.

3. Cour des Comptes flags Interior Ministry's digital underinvestment (Executive — D. Basso) The audit court warns of a digital capability gap for law enforcement. IT/digital = just 2.3% of the Sécurités budget (~€830M in 2025). Severe under-execution: gendarmerie –45% in operating spend (–€85M), only €7M in capex; police –55% below voted capex (€46M vs €102M). The XPN police case-writing software (Scribe successor) is pushed to 2026. The court urges DGPN, DGGN and the digital security agency to build a proper technical and budgetary monitoring doctrine.

4. Leadership vacancy at the National Assembly's questure (Movement) Catherine Leroy's departure to the Constitutional Council (recruited by Ferrand) opens the strategic SG-questure role. Marianne Brun, the current deputy, is the front-runner. Final decision expected after the summer recess.

5. JP Morgan AM leads the race for Idex (Finance) JP Morgan AM (advised by Morgan Stanley) is ahead of TPG and CPPIB in bidding for Idex from Antin Infrastructure; Blackstone has withdrawn. Target valuation: ~€4bn (2× 2025 revenue of €2.1bn). Antin had acquired Idex in 2018 for ~€1.2bn EV. Synergy potential with Getec (German energy supplier owned by JPM AM since 2022, bought from EQT and founder Karl Gerhold). Final bids due end-May.

6. Sarah Knafo joins Fayard (Media — A. Cariou) The Reconquête! MEP will publish in September with Fayard (Lise Boëll, Hachette/Bolloré) a liberal economic manifesto (sharp public-spending cuts), aligned with Zemmour's 2027 presidential bid. Pocket reissue of Le Suicide français on 20/05 and US edition with Encounter Books on 14/07. Currently touring entrepreneur networks: CroissancePlus (Calmels) in Arcachon, Baux-de-Provence, Lyon next.

Souhaitez-vous une version Bloomberg MSG/IB ou un PDF Graham Advisors ?

>>> EU SAAS TAKE-PRIVATE SCREEN │ THE CINT TEMPLATE - ADDENDUM

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

ADDENDUM │ GRAHAM ADVISORS │ 25 APR 2026

EU SAAS TAKE-PRIVATE SCREEN │ THE CINT TEMPLATE

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

SCREEN CRITERIA ───────────────────────────────────────────────

► EU listing, any exchange

► IPO or SPAC de-merger 2020-2022 vintage

► Drawdown >50% from IPO price or post-listing peak

► Software / SaaS / digital platform classification

► Founder, strategic, or PE block on cap table

► AI-disintermediated category OR seat-based pricing model

Full screen: ~25 names. Top-conviction shortlist below. Levels

indicative ─ verify HP before sizing.

TIER 1 ─ HIGHEST CONVICTION (FOUNDER/STRATEGIC BLOCK + CATEGORY KILL-ZONE)

─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

TICKER NAME IPO/PEAK SETUP

─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

OVH FP OVHcloud €18.5/Oct21 Founder Klaba family ~70% block;

sovereign cloud thesis under

pressure; capex burden vs hyper-

scalers; FR strategic asset

TRUE B SS Truecaller SEK 52/Oct21 Founders Mamedi/Khilji ~30% block;

caller-ID directly AI-substitut-

able; IN regulatory headwind

CMCOM NA CM.com €13.5/Feb20 Founder van Glabbeek block; CPaaS

is the textbook AI kill-zone

(SMS/voice replaced by agents);

thinly traded, easy to take out

PEXIP NO Pexip Holding NOK 63/May20 Video conf SaaS; Zoom/Teams +

AI-meeting agents pinching from

both sides; mgmt block + Verdane

HYQ GR Hypoport €575/peak21 Founder Slabke ~35% block; German

PropTech/mortgage SaaS; rate-

cycle exposed; family asset

TIER 2 ─ STRUCTURAL SETUP, QUALITY MIXED ────────────────────────

TRST LN Trustpilot 265p/Mar21 Reviews platform; AI-generated

content / verification thesis

contested; drawdown less severe

WLN FP Worldline €82/peak21 Payments not pure SaaS; debt-

heavy; Bain/Cinven recurrently

linked; CEO change Q4 25

NEMV LN Made Tech / sim Various Smaller UK govtech / vertical

SaaS, drawdown deep but liquidity

thin

NETC DC Netcompany DKK 750/pk IT services not pure SaaS; founder

Rogaczewski block; PE rumours

since 2024

TIER 3 ─ DEEP VALUE / QUALITY FLAGS ─────────────────────────────

THG LN THG 500p/Sep20 Down ~93%; Moulding TP attempted

twice (Apollo, KKR); commerce not

SaaS; included for completeness

AZRN NA Azerion €11/peak SPAC 2022; adtech; ~$1.4bn debt;

quality flags

S30 FP Solutions 30 €37/peak Field services; fraud allegations;

not pure SaaS

ALREADY DONE ─ REFERENCE TRADES (THE PATH-DEPENDENT VERSION) ─────

► Believe (BLV FP) ─ EQT/TCV/founder Ladegaillerie TP @ €15.40,

completed 2024-25

► Esker (ALESK FP) ─ Bridgepoint TP, 2024

► Adevinta (ADE NO) ─ Permira/Blackstone TP, 2023

► Kahoot! (KAHOT NO) ─ Goldman/GA TP, 2023

► Software AG (SOW GR) ─ Silver Lake TP, 2024

► SUSE (SUSE GR) ─ EQT TP, 2023

► CompuGroup Med (COP GR) ─ CVC TP, 2025

► Cint (CINT SS) ─ Triton/Bolero/Comer TP, 25 Apr 2026

PATTERN ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────

The European 2020-22 SaaS IPO vintage is structurally broken at

public-market multiples. The take-private channel is the resolu-

tion path ─ it is no longer episodic, it is the dominant exit

mechanism for the cohort. We have logged 8 confirmed prints in

the last 30 months; expect another 2-4 from the Tier 1 list in

the next 6-12 months.

Founder block is the single best predictor of timing ─ rolled

equity reduces sponsor cash, governance friction is minimal,

process is accelerated. Tier 1 picks (OVH, TRUE, CMCOM, HYQ,

PEXIP) all have material insider/strategic ownership.

POSITIONING ───────────────────────────────────────────────────

► Basket trade: equal-weight Tier 1 (5 names). Hit rate on take-

private in 12mo we estimate 25-35%; avg premium 30-40%. Asym-

metric upside even if 70% of basket flat-to-down.

► Skip Tier 2/3 unless founder catalyst or active sponsor talk.

Quality risk dominates cap-structure setup.

► Insider-purchase signal: monitor TR-1 (UK), AMF déclarations

(FR), Finansinspektionen (SE), BaFin (DE). Director buying in

size = 60-90 day lead indicator.

RISKS ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

► Squeeze risk on shortable names if multiple sponsors approach

same target ─ Cint had four bidders pre-announcement

► EU regulatory: foreign-investment screening (FR golden power,

DE AWV) on strategic infrastructure (OVH most exposed)

► Sample size small; PE dry-powder constrained vs US

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

LC │ Graham Advisors │ Companion to "Cint TP" + "SaaS Reckoning"

│ Full 25-name screen + cap-structure detail on request

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

>>> CINT (CINT SS) │ TAKE-PRIVATE AT SEK 5.60 │ EUROPEAN SAAS RECKONING

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

GRAHAM ADVISORS │ INSTITUTIONAL FLASH │ 25 APR 2026 │ EU SOFTWARE

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

CINT (CINT SS) │ TAKE-PRIVATE AT SEK 5.60 │ EUROPEAN SAAS RECKONING

[BUY]

DEAL ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

► TriCarbs BidCo (Triton Fd 6 + Bolero + P. Comer + B. Schnittlich)

cash offer SEK 5.60/sh = SEK 1.99bn EV

► Premium 33% to 24-Apr close. No financing condition.

90% min acceptance. Board unanimous.

► SEB advising bidders.

THE NUMBER NOBODY IS PRINTING ─────────────────────────────────

► IPO Feb-21 @ SEK 50 ─► Peak SEK ~125 ─► Bid SEK 5.60

► Offer is -89% vs IPO, -95% vs peak.

► The "33% premium" is a premium to ruins.

► Implied EV/Sales: ~2x. Implied EV/EBITDA: undisclosed but low DD.

WHY IT MATTERS ────────────────────────────────────────────────

Founder-led (Comer = ex-Lucid CEO, merged into Cint 2021) coming

back to take it out at the floor with sponsor cover. This is the

constructive twin of the Medallia handover: same 2021 vintage,

same AI-disintermediated category (CX / survey / panel insights),

same multiple reset ─ different governance path.

The thesis is now Europe-side. Survey-tech is among the cleanest

LLM kill-zones (panel sampling, survey design, audience segmen-

tation all eaten by agents). Public market won't pay for it. PE

+ founder will, at 2x sales, off-screen.

READ-ACROSS ───────────────────────────────────────────────────

Screen Eu mid-cap SaaS, 2020-22 IPO vintage, -70% to -90% from

issue, founder still on cap table, AI-exposed category. That's

the next take-private cohort. Initial candidates to watch:

► Solutions 30, Lectra, Verimatrix, Esker (already gone), and

the long tail of Nordic/Italian SPACs of the same vintage.

POSITIONING ───────────────────────────────────────────────────

► Cint: tender into the 5.60 ─ 90% threshold likely cleared,

no plausible competing bid given Comer + Triton lock-up.

► Sector: avoid public Eu CX/survey/seat-based SaaS at any

multiple. Re-rate is structural, not cyclical.

► Watch: any Nordic mid-cap SaaS with >70% drawdown + founder

block ─ that's the take-private signal.

ONE-LINE ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────

Cint @ 5.60 is Europe pricing the SaaS reckoning. Founders are

buying back what the public market won't underwrite anymore.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

LC │ Graham Advisors │ See morning note "The SaaS Reckoning"

│ for full framework. Distribution: institutional only.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

(BFW) Triton Sees ‘Good Market to Hunt In’ as PE Firm Makes Cint Offer

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of April 2026

>>> Up

* Cicor Tech Raised to Buy at Research Partners

* Commerzbank Upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Bank of America

* Coop Pank Raised to Buy at Swedbank; PT 2.80 euros

* Humana Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 50 kronor

* Leonardo PT Raised to 82 euros from 71 euros at Morgan Stanley
* Lifco Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 340 kronor

* Nokia ADRs Raised to Buy at Argus; PT $15

* Orsted Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 185 kroner

* Sartorius Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 250 euros

* Snap Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $10

* Tomra Raised to Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 105 kroner

* Volvo Price Target Raised to SEK 380 from SEK 370 by Bank of America

>>> Down

* Apetit Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 12.50 euros

* Castellum Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 130 kronor

* Castellum Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 130 kronor

* Corticeira Amorim Cut to Hold at Bestinver; PT 6.95 euros

* GE Vernova Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $1,190

* HMS Networks Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 539 kronor

* Holmen PT Cut to 286 kronor from 306 kronor at JPMorgan

* Leroy Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 52 kroner

* Loihde Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 14.60 euros

* Maasoeval Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 36 kroner

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 300 kronor

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at Nordea

* Mycronic Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 315 kronor

* NCAB Group Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 76 kronor

* Nexi Cut to Underperform at BofA

* Sainsbury Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 335 pence

* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 335 pence

* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Citi on Weaker Guidance for 2027

* Subsea 7 Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 302 kroner

* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 10 euros

* Vaisala Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 55 euros
* Wereldhave Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 22 euros

>>> Initiation

* Appear Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 100 kroner
* Posti Group Rated New Accumulate at Inderes; PT 10 euros

* Rentokil Rated New Hold at Investec; PT 510 pence

>>> Call

* Leonardo Undervalued, PT Raised to Street-High at Morgan Stanley
* Nike, Adidas Get More Than Sales Lift From World Cup: Bernstein

* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Citi on Weaker Guidance for 2027

* Sartorius Risk-Reward Has Shifted, Raised to Buy at Berenberg