Grégory Pons: "The Swiss watches are becoming too expensive"
INTERVIEW 2 days of the opening of the international exhibition of watches in Basel, Grégory Pons, Editor Business Watches, gives his analysis on the market and predicts a more difficult year 2014.
How is the Swiss watch?
In statistics, wonderfully, but they reflect only the sell-in, not the sell-out (actual sales to final customers). Field is more mixed. Chinese who bought - on site or in tourist destinations - two Swiss watches three significantly calmed their buying spree: the name of the fight against corruption, Xi Jinping has declared New proletarian austerity condemns watches luxury wrist Chinese elites. It is the prohibition of watches purchased to be offered a "gift" to facilitate the free pass and "arrangements between friends." Chinese engine, which derived all the watch industry is down. If we add to this slowdown Chinese economic depression in Europe and uncertainty in America, watchmaking has more growth drivers: we should expect a slowdown in 2014, more or less pronounced depending on continents ...
How groups of luxury do they get?
Obviously, these changes make the sector announced less profitable and therefore less profitable for shareholders. We must therefore expect the quest for new pockets of growth: it is likely that the battle will play out in the months and years to come, in the field of jewelry that weighs about ten times that of watches (including jewelry) while being much less competitive. Regarding watches, large swell will go slim and lean, the risk of death: the premium leader (competitive edge labels) will play full, both to monopolize productive resources to capture best windows or lock the communication spaces.
You speak of 2014 as "the year of living dangerously" ...
As President Chirac said, emm ... the fly in flight. The watch came in a logical conjunction of disasters. On the one hand, economic constraints: breathlessness in China, austerity in Europe, less money circulating, fans who head elsewhere, Swiss franc (pegged to the euro), which tends to become too expensive while monetary disorder threat. This when unsold stocks reaching alarming heights (Swatch Group 5.4 billion Swiss francs to 8.8 billion inventory turnover).
Add to this factor deficient industrialization lack of capacity and rational investment (marketing is preferred to the supply chain), Switzerland has difficulty producing locally Swiss Made watches it sells, where some cheating troubling that consumers will not forgive soon. On the other hand, consider the likely impact of the arrival on the market of tens of millions of "connected watch" (smartwatches), which will undermine the current pyramid Swiss brands by reformatting all the paradigms of port an object wrist. Add to this challenge the probable electronic market entry of Chinese brands, encouraged by their government to conquer foreign markets when they are designed and manufactured in China with Swiss Swiss designers and engineers on Swiss machines and according to procedures Swiss, their value is unbeatable. Finally, the relationship to evolve and the Swiss luxury watch has a conservative by nature, then it should renew the societal imaginary beautiful objects related to time. If you coagulate all, you have to worry about anything ...
Much has been made of the lack of movements organized by Swatch Group?
This danger seems to be behind us. There are many alternatives to only industrial capacity Swatch Group for both movements to the spiral or exhausts. We will review eg at Baselworld in a few days, the Russians Manufacturing Raketa (actually, two French and one Swiss) openly flirt brands to offer their mechanical movements and their components. In a year or two, if the watch decay is confirmed, we will come close rather overcapacity. The real problem of shortage is that of exterior watch (boxes, bracelets, etc..) Components: Switzerland produced in the mountains two cases out of ten of its production Swiss Made. Hence the eight Swiss cases which are not machined in Switzerland ten products come from? Industrial relocation is underway, but the market is tight because produce in Switzerland still costs 15% to 20% more than China ...
The price of the watches is not it become prohibitive and can be seen down?
Obviously, Swiss watches are too expensive! Prices have more than doubled in ten years, or even tripled for some models, while revenues are far from being doubled. Access to beautiful watches became financially impossible for most amateurs. Deceleration is required, but the brands that know, can not lower their prices without devaluing the huge stocks (more than a year of production) that remain on the market. Hence the launch of cheaper because less expensive to manufacture (cases, movements) and consume less precious metals models: it will be the biggest trend of the year, even though the price catalogs take 3% to 5% Additional early April. It's crazy, but true! So no hope for lower prices for current models, but an effort to the latest moderation worked as "more accessible" - which remains on when it is a Switzerland that ad ...
The watch is not it an obsolete object?
At the age of smartwatches, watch as we know it today - everyday object to read the time with two or three needles driven by a mechanical movement or electronic - is destined to become an object of adornment, accessory mode, a statutory fetish. If it does not change, it will be a comforting relic of the pre-modern age, fun to wear as it is today pocket watches. The paradox is that the electronics giants have not found a better place to house the new digital hearing aids that will tomorrow be all connected to any environment. The Battle of the wrist between the electronics giants ( Samsung , Apple , Google ) might therefore sanctuaries wrist and give the younger generations a taste for them to wear something that looks like a watch: it is creative watchmakers give us good reasons to love quality watches, which however can not escape an electronic injection - what is today the absolute taboo ...
