(Barron's) Danger Ahead for Tax Loopholes (VOD / AT&T mentionned)

Danger Ahead for Tax Loopholes

An interview with tax guru Robert Willens. Sizing up proposals that could affect REITs, AT&T and others.

When it comes to analyzing companies, taxes don't always command the same amount of attention from investors as, say, earnings growth or profit-margin trends. But taxes and tax policy, however dry and arcane, can have a profound impact on a company's financial outlook. How quickly a company can depreciate equipment it buys, whether it can repatriate cash cheaply, or even whether it's able to convert to a REIT (real-estate investment trust)—along with, of course, shutting down corporate-tax loopholes—are all hot topics in Congress right now.

For some perspective on those issues and others, Barron's spoke recently to Robert Willens, a well-regarded and very seasoned tax and accounting expert. Willens, 67, began his career in 1972 and eventually became a tax partner in the New York office of Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co., now KPMG. He then went on to spend 20 years at Lehman Brothers, which he left in January 2008 to start his own consultancy, Robert Willens LLC. Willens, whose consultancy caters primarily to hedge funds, focusing more on corporate tax than individual, also pens a daily newsletter called, what else, The Willens Report.


"The fear is that the IRS is attempting to make policy here, even though they don't usually do that." -- Bob Willens
Barron's: What's the latest as far as any tax reform coming out of Washington?

Willens: We are keeping an eye on the draft legislation, called the Tax Reform Act of 2014, which was put out in February by Dave Camp, chairman of the Committee on Ways and Means. He's a Republican congressman from Michigan. His proposal, which was several years in the making, would radically overhaul the tax code, even more so than the tax legislation we had in 1986. Camp's approach is to reduce tax rates, but broaden the tax base by eliminating many of the loopholes, to ensure the same level of revenue.

What in particular caught your eye?

The proposal has really caused a lot of anxiety in the investment community, particularly for people who invest in REITs. It doesn't seem these proposals will be enacted any time soon, but nevertheless they are a concern.

REITs pay out most of their taxable income to shareholders and therefore avoid corporate taxes. What does the proposal call for?

It would essentially terminate the ability of any company to convert to a REIT. There have been concerns that non-traditional companies have been qualifying for REIT status, perhaps inappropriately. But this proposal goes way beyond what is necessary to police the space. It would impose a "toll charge" on any C corporation that wanted to convert to a REIT—basically, the charge will be equivalent to the fair market value of all the company's assets, as if they had been sold. That would be a very large amount, and particularly onerous because it would be a gain realized without any cash to pay the tax on the gain.

What are a few examples of companies attempting to convert to REITs?

There are lot of companies, including Lamar Advertising [ticker: LAMR], Iron Mountain [IRM], Equinix [EQIX], and CBS Outdoor Americas [CBSO] [which just split from CBS on Friday], that have all requested rulings from the IRS to become REITs. Ordinarily, the IRS will issue a ruling within six to seven months after the request is made. But they have had their ruling requests at the IRS for more than a year. No doubt these companies are having dialogues with the IRS, but they haven't gotten rulings.

What are some of the key issues for these companies as they try to become REITs?

In the case of Iron Mountain, which handles record management and storage, one of the problems is that in order to be a REIT, you have to have real-estate assets, and you have to earn rents from real property. In Iron Mountain's case, in their warehouse they have these shelves they call racking, where they house documents. But there is some question as to whether that racking is a structural component of the building. If it is, then it is real estate. If it is not, then it is personal property.

For Lamar Advertising and Equinix, which operates data centers, it's hard to say what the issues are. It is clear, though, that Lamar has outdoor advertising displays, as does CBS Outdoor, which is attempting to convert its North and South American outdoor advertising business as a REIT. Those billboards are inherently permanent structures and, therefore, considered real estate. The fear is that the IRS is attempting to make policy here, even though they don't usually do that.

Another vehicle that investors looking for tax benefits have been turning to more often is master limited partnerships (MLPs), which, like REITs, pay out the bulk of their earnings to investors and forgo corporate taxes. Despite their similarities, does it look like we may see an increase in the number of companies becoming MLPs?

While the IRS is getting more restrictive on REITs and inversions, they are getting more expansive on MLPs, for some unknown reason. They are allowing a broader class of entity to convert to MLP status. Most MLPs are involved in the mineral and natural resource field, usually in exploration, development, processing, refining, marketing, and transportation of minerals or natural resources, including oil and gas. But over the last year, the IRS has been allowing companies that aren't directly engaged in those activities to become MLPs—companies that simply service companies that are engaged in those activities. We've seen an expansion in the number of companies eligible to be MLPs because the IRS has allowed companies whose activities are kind of peripheral to the main activities that MLPs were traditionally known for.

There's been a lot of talk about so-called inversions, in which a U.S. company changes its domicile to that of a country with lower taxes. First off, could you summarize how these transactions work?

It is simply a transaction in which a foreign company—sometimes newly created, sometimes an existing company—acquires the stock of a U.S. company. Typically, the foreign company pays for the stock, primarily with its own stock. Since the foreign company is inevitably smaller than the U.S. company it is acquiring, the result is that the U.S. shareholders acquire a majority ownership in the foreign company. Shares still typically trade on a U.S. exchange. The principal purpose of that—even though they will frequently tell you that there are many business goals that are achieved—is to reduce the tax burden. Income is shifted from the U.S. to the more benign foreign tax environments, typically Ireland, the Netherlands, Switzerland or the U.K.

What are a few examples?

Actavis [ACT] recently completed one inversion, and they are on the verge of doing a second one with the acquisition of Forest Laboratories [FRX]. Other examples of companies doing inversions include Eaton [ETN] and Perrigo [PRGO]. Chiquita Brands International [CQB] just announced one.

Will there be more of these transactions?

Absolutely. But I'm often asked why everybody doesn't do this, because you are guaranteed to reduce your tax rate dramatically and help the bottom line. There is some reluctance because the transactions tend to get covered in the press not very charitably, and there is fear of some reputational risk.

How do inversions affect investors?

Inversions complicate things for investors. First and foremost, the exchange of their stock in the U.S. company for stock in the foreign acquirer is taxable. And going forward, any dividends are from a foreign corporation, which complicates matters.

Do you expect the U.S. government to crack down on companies performing these inversions, which has cost billions in lost federal tax revenue?

You would think so. There have been periods of inactivity in this area and periods of great activity. The first inversion was in 1994 for a company called Helen of Troy, now domiciled in Bermuda. Since then there have been three waves of inversion transactions; we are now in the third wave. The last time Congress got involved was in 2003, and while they did create some impediments, they weren't sufficient in deterring companies from doing these transactions.

What's happening now?

A few weeks ago, when President Obama laid out his budget, it included proposals dealing specifically with inversions. In the budget, the president refers disparagingly to inversions—how they have very little, if any, business purpose and that they are done almost exclusively for tax-avoidance reasons. It also says there is no reason why these companies should be able to reduce their tax rate so easily by shifting income to more friendly foreign tax environments. Those proposals, if enacted, would almost certainly stop inversions.

What's the chance of that happening?

There is little chance of the proposals passing in their current form. But by becoming part of the conversation, it increases the possibility of their being enacted down the road, perhaps in a different, though no less punitive, form.

There are many U.S. companies with a lot of cash parked abroad, thanks to their overseas operations. But they're reluctant to spend that cash in the U.S. because of the tax bill it will incur. What do you expect on this front?

It's hard to say. U.S. companies had a one-year option in 2004 or 2005 that allowed them to repatriate earnings at a very low tax rate. The problem was that the companies, for the privilege of repatriating those earnings, were supposed to use repatriated cash to build plants, hire workers, and invest in research and development, and advertising. The only things they weren't allowed to do were to repurchase stock, pay special dividends, or pay executive compensation.

How did that turn out?

Studies showed there wasn't any incremental R&D spending, and there weren't a lot of incremental advertising or marketing expenditures. But there was a huge ramp-up in stock repurchases and dividends. So the program got a very bad name, and it clearly didn't accomplish what it was supposed to.

So companies spent the cash on exactly what they were explicitly told not to.

The problem was that money is fungible, or interchangeable. The funds that were repatriated were used for things like R&D, but the repatriated funds freed up money that was used to pay dividends and buy back stock.

There have been a lot of attempts to have another tax holiday for repatriated cash, and the proposals have been accompanied by very strong enforcement mechanisms to ensure that if a company didn't have an increase in its plant and equipment investment or R&D expenditures, it would have to pay taxes on the repatriated cash at the higher rate. But I don't expect we are going to see that, at least not anytime soon. So companies are left to their own devices, and they have to try to come up with their own techniques to repatriate the earnings tax efficiently. But that's very difficult to do nowadays.

What other tax matters are you keeping an eye on, particularly pertaining to investing?

The tax extenders bill has a better chance of passing this year. This bill extends the provisions in the tax law that have to be re-enacted continuously, usually every two years. The reason these provisions aren't a permanent part of the tax law is because of budget accounting—if they were permanent, the budget deficit would look worse than it is.

Which extenders are you most interested in?

Bonus depreciation, which was enacted in 2008 and has been extended several times. It allows companies that invest in capital goods to deduct, in the year they purchased the equipment, 50% of the cost of the equipment. For a company like AT&T [T], it is incredibly important and has reduced their cash tax rate dramatically.

So it accelerates depreciation on capital goods?

It goes beyond that. We already have accelerated depreciation. This is bonus depreciation, on top of the accelerated depreciation. When you combine bonus and accelerated depreciation, you wind up allowing a company to deduct about 70% or 75% of the cost of plant and equipment in the year of purchase. So they get to recover almost the entire outlay through tax deductions. AT&T has been a big beneficiary, and the expiration of bonus depreciation would clearly increase AT&T's cash tax payments this year, relative to prior years, and contribute towards a decline in cash from operations. But with this extenders bill in limbo, analysts that follow AT&T are getting quite concerned that their cash taxes will be higher this year. There have been some rumors about AT&T perhaps doing an inversion transaction with Vodafone [VOD]. But as a practical matter, I don't think they can. For such an iconic company to do an inversion would not be looked upon very favorably.

Do you expect that there will be meaningful federal tax reform anytime soon?

It is hard to imagine that, given how hard it is for the various factions in Congress to ever agree on anything. Tax reform is a fairly major undertaking, and presumably a lot of people's oxes would be gored if there were a comprehensive tax-reform effort. So I have a hard time believing that Congress could arrive at the kind of compromises they would have to reach to come up with anything meaningful.

(Barron's) - Cover : Here Comes $75 Oil

Here Comes $75 Oil

Lower energy costs will have a salutary effect on the U.S. economy. Not so Russia, where oil provides 50% of government income.

The long-term outlook for global oil prices is lower, perhaps much lower, giving a strong boost to the U.S. economy while potentially crippling the economy of Vladimir Putin's Russia. Vast new discoveries of oil and natural gas in the U.S. and around the globe could drive the oil price to as low as $75 a barrel over the next five years from a current $100.

The demand side, too, will put pressure on the supremacy of petroleum. For the first time in its 150-year history, the internal combustion engine can be run efficiently on alternative fuels from a number of sources, including natural gas. As these alternatives are increasingly introduced, global consumption of oil will slow its growth and flatten out.

Citigroup's head of global commodity research, Edward Morse, believes the combination of flattening consumption and rising production should mean that "the $90-a-barrel floor on the world oil price over the past few years will become a $90 ceiling." Within a new trading range with a $90 ceiling, Morse sees an average of $75 as plausible.

That's a far cry from the old paradigm, promoted in the past 40 years, which posited ever-greater demand for petroleum as developing economies grew, and a slowdown on the supply side -- the looming prospect of "peak oil," whereby global production maxes out and falls into decline. To the contrary, unconventional sources of crude oil totaling more than a trillion barrels -- the equivalent of more than 30 years of extra supply -- have been discovered in the past five years. The majority is recoverable at $75 or less, and much is now being tapped.

Within the next five years, growth in U.S. production of oil should make this country a net exporter, ending a pattern that has persisted since World War II. "While this country will still be importing plenty of medium and heavy crudes, most of the imports will come from Canada and Mexico," says Morse. "So the U.S. will no longer have to worry about disruptions in supply that might disrupt economic activity. That's why we call it the era of North American energy independence."

British economist Alfred Marshall famously likened supply and demand to the blades of scissors, and the blades are also poised to cut oil prices in the rest of the world. On the supply side, unconventional sources of oil are being tapped in countries that include India, Bahrain, and Uganda. On the demand side, a third of the auto fleet in Brazil can already run on fuel other than petroleum.

THE RECENT AGGRESSION by the oil-and-gas exporting nation of Russia reminds us of the fragility of global energy supplies. At the same time, the oil-and-gas abundance in this country has influenced concrete proposals for dealing with Russia. Energy consultant Philip Verleger has publicly proposed as a "meaningful response to Russian aggression" that the U.S. sell the nearly 700 million barrels in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a way to "drive oil prices down and impose significant harm on Russia," since the SPR is "no longer needed for national security." And an editorial in The Wall Street Journal recently proposed that the Department of Energy "approve immediately the 25 applications for liquefied natural gas…export terminals," since "every dollar of U.S. gas is one less dollar flowing to Mr. Putin's economy."

Such proposals would have been unthinkable as recently as five years ago, when the old paradigm was still dominant and domestic supplies of oil and gas were a source of worry.

Over the next five years, the effects of the global oil-and-gas boom should prove a grim object lesson for the Russian economy on the downside of the "resource curse." Russia's economy "largely depends on energy exports," according to a study from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That works well when prices are high, but quite badly when prices fall.

Oil-and-gas revenues account for 70% of Russia's total exports and more than half the income of its federal government. Russia exports more than seven million barrels of oil a day, second only to Saudi Arabia. One key difference between Russia and the No. 1 exporter is that more than 60% of Russian oil is produced in Siberia, where costs are much higher. A fall in the world price to $75 from $100 would therefore have a much greater impact on the net revenues that Russia earns from oil than is earned by the Saudis.

The downside of the resource curse could also be felt in Russia's reliance on sales of natural gas. About 75% of Russia's natural gas exports go to Western Europe, providing 30% of its requirements, at prices that are two and three times the price in the U.S. That enormous premium stems from the fact that there is no world market for natural gas, given the prohibitive cost of shipping it in its unaltered state. Hence, the argument for accelerated approval of liquefied-natural-gas export terminals. With abundant natural gas now available in so much of the world -- including Australia, South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina -- within the next five years, something resembling a global market in liquefied natural gas will likely develop. That would break the local monopoly of the Russians in their market, enabling Europeans to buy from other sources, and weighing on the premium Russian gas now commands.

AMY JAFFE, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR for energy and sustainability at the University of California, Davis, co-authored a recent study with Rice University economics professor Mahmoud El-Gamal predicting that barring a "war that destroys physical installations for the production and/or transport of oil," the oil price will "fall precipitously over the medium term of three to five years."

Jaffe believes the average price could fall below $75, based in part on her view that oil-production costs are not fixed. "Research shows that costs track oil prices and not the other way around," she observes. As oil prices move lower, demand for drilling rigs and related equipment falls, lowering the cost of drilling. And that's bad news for Putin.

"The Russian government's budget is expected to need an oil price of over $100 to stay balanced between now and 2020," Jaffe says. "A $75 average could make the ruble's recent tailspin look trivial by comparison."

Steve Briese, publisher and writer of the Bullish Review of Commodity Insiders newsletter, is currently projecting an imminent plunge in the oil price to the $70 region. His bearish outlook is based on the recent peak in the net short position of businesses involved with oil. These businesses, also called "commercials," use futures and options on West Texas Intermediate crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange as part of their business strategy.

The futures and options market in WTI crude is actively used by refiners that would naturally take long positions in these derivative contracts to hedge against a price rise, and producers who would naturally take short positions in order to hedge against a price decline. The fact that the net short position of these commercials recently set a record indicates that refineries are lightening up on their long positions. While this leaves them exposed to a price rise, it also means they will benefit if the price declines.

Briese uses published data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to track the bets of these bona fide hedgers with an eye to betting accordingly. In his view, since they are in the oil business and therefore close to the scene, they are the true insiders, whose consensus outlook is better than anyone else's. Perhaps these insiders recognize that the new paradigm is here to stay.

THE GAME CHANGERS on the supply side are the three new types of oil production that have not been counted as part of the oil supply until recently: deepwater oil, shale oil, and oil sands. Each of these sources of oil has been estimated at more than 300 billion barrels, totaling more than one trillion barrels in all. That's a huge addition to previously estimated reserves of some 1.5 trillion barrels. According to Citigroup energy analyst Eric Lee, a good proportion of the extra trillion barrels could be recoverable at $75 a barrel or less. In fact, he notes that a $75 cost estimate could even be on the high side, as production costs for shale and even deepwater can continue to fall over time.

Deepwater oil has been tallied at 317 billion barrels by the Norway-based oil-and-gas source Rystad Energy. Of that total, Rystad estimates that 53 billion barrels are recoverable off the shores of North America.

What slowed development of deepwater drilling was the 2010 disaster in the Gulf of Mexico involving BP (ticker: BP), which killed 11 people and spilled millions of barrels of oil. But two weeks ago, the Environmental Protection Agency lifted the ban on BP's right to bid on oil leases in the Gulf of Mexico. A few days later, BP bid successfully on 24 leases in the Gulf in an auction held in New Orleans. Elsewhere, activity had already picked up in regions that include East Africa (63 billion barrels) and the Asia-Pacific region (32 billion barrels).

Shale oil, recoverable mainly through hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has been estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration at 345 billion barrels, of which 58 billion barrels are recoverable in the U.S. The EIA report of June 2013 estimates that the 310-million-barrel increase in U.S. oil production in 2012 over 2011 was "largely attributable to increased production from shales and other tight sources."

Oil sands, according to the BP Statistical Review, are found in just two countries: Canada, at 167.8 billion barrels, and Venezuela, at 220 billion. In the oil-sands case, it is not clear whether production would continue with $75 oil. But as Citigroup's Morse points out, "While current investors might be discouraged by $75, other companies would be open to investing, including state-owned companies in the Far East, since the cash flow would be robust for 40 years or so." Investors with a 40-year outlook might not be deterred by a $75 average price if they are bullish on a long-term basis.

Meanwhile, at current prices, the BP Statistical Review reveals 25.9 billion barrels of Canadian oil sands as "under active development."

On the demand side, petroleum's monopoly of the transportation market is being challenged by abundant natural gas recoverable from shale. According to estimates by Advanced Resources International, an energy consulting firm that compiles data in conjunction with the EIA, shale-gas resources in the U.S. amount to a staggering 1,161 trillion cubic feet, compared with 285 trillion cubic feet in Russia, and a world total of 7,795 trillion cubic feet. On a British-thermal-units basis, 7,795 trillion cubic feet of natural gas is the equivalent of 1.4 trillion barrels of crude oil.

AS THE NEARBY CHART SHOWS, domestic oil and natural-gas prices used to track each other fairly closely. The reason for the correlation: Oil drilling invariably produces natural gas as a byproduct. By 2009, however, the correlation began to break down, with natural-gas prices moving to a steep discount to oil prices, as gas production soared. A barrel of oil contains the energy-equivalent of some 5.55 million BTUs. At the current natural-gas spot price of $4.30 per million BTUs, a barrel at $75 buys nearly 17.5 million BTUs-worth of natural gas -- more than three times as much.

This multiple is already being exploited. In a major study, Citigroup's Morse, together with a team of other analysts, has calculated that there is huge potential for savings if trucks, buses, ships, and ultimately passenger vehicles are run with natural gas rather than petroleum fuels. The study also notes that the conversion is well under way. Waste Management (WM) has made it known that 80% of the trucks it buys are fueled by cheaper natural gas. Cummins (CMI) and joint-venture partner Westport Innovations (WPRT) sell an engine that runs on both liquid natural gas and compressed natural gas. Westport Innovations specializes in retrofitting engines with natural-gas components.

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According to the Citigroup study, the low-hanging fruit lies in commercial fleets setting up refueling stations along routes of 400 miles or less. In the U.S., that includes heavily trafficked routes in the Northeast and in Southern California. Intracity traffic that includes passenger buses and other short-haul vehicles can also shift to natural gas.

Transportation accounts for nearly half of the oil the world consumes each year, and trucks alone use nearly one of every nine barrels consumed. Also ripe for natural-gas substitution is the consumption of oil for industrial uses -- accounting for more than one in five barrels consumed -- and for electricity generation, which still accounts for one in 18 barrels consumed worldwide. Moreover, when mixed with petroleum, fuels that can be made from natural gas, like ethanol and methanol, can help meet ever-more-stringent Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE standards, being mandated over the next several years.

Taken together, these trends should be more than enough to cause global consumption of oil to slow its growth over the next several years and then flatten out. There is even the potential for global oil demand to begin declining. Yossie Hollander, co-founder of the Fuel Freedom Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to breaking the world's oil addiction, argues that passenger vehicles can run economically on methanol and ethanol made from various sources, including natural gas.

"Methanol can be made today competitively with existing technology, from energy resources with which the United States is well endowed -- natural gas, coal, biomass, garbage, or any other organic material," Gal Luft, an advisor to the Fuel Freedom Foundation, argues in Petropoly, co-authored by Anne Korin. "In the future, perhaps even recycled carbon dioxide could be commercially converted into methanol, providing an elegant solution to the otherwise seemingly economically irresolvable issue of fossil-fuels-derived greenhouse-gas emissions."

THE OIL AND GAS BOOM is not welcome to environmentalists, although it should be. The replacement of coal with natural gas for electricity generation has reduced carbon-dioxide emissions, and emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides fall as natural gas replaces petroleum. Also, lower energy prices confer disproportionate benefits on people of modest means, who spend a larger share of their income on energy than do richer folk.

But the dangers of deepwater drilling and of fracking, and the use of fossil fuels for decades to come, are already provoking pushback from the greens. In the end, however, as Trevor Houser of the Peterson Institute remarks, "Provided that industry accepts reasonable levels of regulatory oversight, the oil-and-gas boom is unlikely to be stopped by environmentalists."

"The history of mankind," observes Morse, "at least since the invention of the wheel, is a history of cheaper and cheaper energy. Modern civilization would be impossible without cheap energy. I believe we are entering another period of cheaper energy that should last 50 years or more."

Barron's : Emerging Market Stocks: Have They Hit Bottom?

Emerging Market Stocks: Have They Hit Bottom?

The case for emerging markets is strengthening. Here's an options trade that benefits from a bounce.

While U.S. stocks have rallied impressively over the past several years, emerging markets stocks are essentially unchanged since the beginning of 2010. The euro zone sovereign debt crisis put pressure on emerging markets, with the biggest blows dealt during the second half of 2011. Recently, euro zone concerns have begun to fade, replaced by a new threat: the tapering of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve and with it, the prospect of the end of easy money and the expectation that foreign investment will plummet.

Concerns about emerging markets have even led to an expansion of the risk lexicon, with the recent addition of the "Fragile Five" (Turkey, Indonesia, India, Brazil and South Africa,) highlighting the problem of emerging markets with substantial debt priced in hard currency that becomes harder to repay as local currencies weaken. These concerns boiled over on Jan. 24, when the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked 31.7% in one day on fears of an emerging markets meltdown. In subsequent weeks, China's economic data have repeatedly missed expectations, Brazil's sovereign debt ratings were cut to one notch above junk status, and Russia has been bogged down in a Crimean land grab that has been expensive and runs the risk of triggering additional punitive economic sanctions.

In spite of these developments and the pervasive bearish tone in emerging markets, uncertainty and risk appears to have peaked last Wednesday, at least as measured by the CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index (VXEEM). According to VXEEM, which measures implied volatility expectations for the next 30 days in options on the popular iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), market participants have been pricing uncertainty and risk at a level that is well below what was seen in June 2013 in the wake of Ben Bernanke's announcement that the Fed was considering tapering bond purchases by the end of 2013.

At present, VXEEM is sitting just below its 52-week average and the VXEEM/VIX ratio is matching its 52-week average. In other words, uncertainty and risk in emerging markets is no different now than it has been over the course of the past year. Better yet, the performance of EEM relative to the S&P 500 Index has been stronger over the course of the past week than at any time during the past six months.

In addition to some of these technical indicators, a number of fundamental factors and valuation data that suggest selling in emerging markets has been overdone and that emerging markets pose some interesting relative value trading opportunities.

There are a number of ways to translate this line of thinking into an options trade. With the iShares EEM fund just below $40, one approach is what's known as a risk reversal: Buy May $42 calls for 35 cents, financed by selling May $37 puts at 45 cents or May $36 puts at 31 cents. An options seller might consider a bullish put spread, such as selling the May $40 puts at $1.35 and hedging this position with a purchase of the May $38 puts at 64 cents.

Emerging markets have been lagging for several years and investors should not be surprised if that trend reverses in 2014. Even for those who choose to forego a trade in emerging markets, it is useful to keep an eye on EEM and VXEEM as barometers of risk and opportunity as the Fed winds down quantitative easing and moves toward a more hawkish monetary policy.

>>> US Close Dow+0,36% S&P+0,46% Nasdaq+0,11%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Week on Modestly Higher Note While Biotech Remains Volatile

The stock market finished a cautious week on a modestly higher note, but kept only a portion of its opening gain. The S&P 500 added 0.5%, trimming its weekly loss to 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.1%, finishingthe week with a 2.8% decline.

Emboldened by stimulus talk during the overnight session, equity indices began the day on a strong note with the Nasdaq leading the way. The tech-heavy index displayed early strength thanks to gains in biotechnology and other recently-battered momentum names. In all likelihood short covering played a part in the early advance that turned many recent laggards into leaders. One such area was the consumer discretionary sector, which added 0.8% for the day, but ended the week behind the remaining nine sectors with a loss of 2.1%.

Although the discretionary space held the bulk of today's gain, that was not the case with biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 229.38, -6.76) s urged out of the gate and notched a high 15 minutes into the day before spending the remainder of the session in a steady retreat. Selling pressure intensified in the afternoon as the ETF dropped to yesterday's lows before settling with a loss of 2.9%.

The continued weakness in biotech pressured the health care sector (-0.4%) while other heavily-weighted groups ended mixed with respect to the broader market. Like the aforementioned consumer discretionary space, industrials (+0.7%) outperformed while financials (+0.4%) lagged. For its part, the largest S&P 500 sector, technology, ended in-line with the broader market.

Also of note, the energy sector (+1.2%) outperformed for the second day in a row, bringing its weekly gain to 2.5%. The sector drew strength from Dow component ExxonMobil (XOM 97.70, +1.46), which gained 1.5% while crude oil added 0.4% to $101.67/bbl.

On the countercyclical side, all four sectors ended behind the broader market. The telecom services (-0.1%) sector posted a modest loss while consumer staples (+0.4%) and utilities (+0.2%) registered gains.

Treasuries ended near their lows after retreating throughout the sessio. nThe benchmark 10-yr yield rose three basis points to 2.72%.

Trading volume was on the light side with just over 620 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Reviewing today's data:

* Personal income increased 0.3% for a second consecutive month in February. The consensus expected income to increase 0.2%. As foretold in the employment report, wages and salaries were up 0.2% in February after increasing 0.3% in January. The Medicaid expansion from the implementation of the Affordable Care Act offset declines in unemployment insurance from the expiration of the emergency unemployment benefits. In all, government social benefits increased 0.8%. Personal spending met expectations, increasing 0.3% in February, up from a downwardly revised 0.2% (from 0.4%) in January. 

* The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 80.0 in the final March reading from 79.9 in the preliminary reading (consensus 80.0). Sentiment is still below the 81.6 final reading from February. There was a divergence between the March Conference Board's Consumer Confidence and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment indicators. The Confidence Index jumped to a six year high on stronger future expectations while the respondents in the University of Michigan survey were much more subdued. Competing trends are nothing new, but they do discount the effectiveness of using these data points to predict future consumption growth. 

>>> Weekly Update

Weekly Market Update: March Goes Out Like a Lamb

- Global markets diverged this week as investors concentrated on vertical phenomena rather than cross-market influences. In Asia, the prospect of stimulus to support Abenomics and the slowing Chinese market sent Hong Kong and Japan equities broadly higher, although Shanghai was flat. In Europe, another round of decent economic reports reinforced hopes the continent was starting to pull itself out of the hole, epitomized by France's preliminary March PMI manufacturing data, which moved into expansion for the first time in more than two years. In the US, the S&P500 and DJIA traded sideways as traders continued to reposition after Yellen rearranged assumptions last week. The Conference Board's March Consumer Confidence survey unexpectedly jumped to 82.3 from February's upwardly-revised 78.3 reading, marking the highest level since January 2008. The advance durable goods report for February was mixed but on balance somewhat weaker than expected, showing the persistent impact of weather issues. Meanwhile the Nasdaq had its worst week since October 2012, dropping 2.8%, as many high-flying tech stocks saw stiff losses.

- The Federal Reserve released the second component - capital plan reviews - of its Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) this week. Twenty five of thirty large bank capital plans were approved. The Fed objected to capital plans from Citigroup, HSBC North America, RBS Citizens, Santander Holdings USA and Zions. Note that three of these are US branches of European banks, while Zions failed the earlier stress test. Citigroup shares took the biggest hit after the Fed rejected its request for a $6.4 billion stock buyback program and an increase of the quarterly dividend to $0.05. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs were forced to adjust their initial capital plan submissions to gain approval.

- Facebook announced another big acquisition, paying $2 billion in cash and stock for virtual reality gaming technology company Oculus VR. The company's immersive virtual reality technology headset, the Oculus Rift, has been lauded as a major breakthrough by the tech press. Facebook CEO Zuckerberg explained that he is looking ahead of Mobile to the next major computing platform interface, noting Oculus can be used as more than just platform for gaming, potentially becoming the "most social platform ever."

- Popular "momentum stocks" cratered this week in unison. Stocks of Facebook and Twitter tracked each other through the week, with the two names down more than 12% on the week by Thursday morning, although they retook some losses into the end of the week. Netflix gave up 12% on the week. Biotechs that set off the Nasdaq tumble last Friday saw additional losses this week, with Biogen leading the way down.

IPOs showed signs of oversaturation for the second straight week. King Digital Entertainment, the designer of the highly addictive Candy Crush mobile videogame, launched its IPO on the NYSE this week, opening for trading at 10% below the IPO price. Shares lost another 10% of their value through the end of the week, as investors worried the company is a one-hit-wonder.

- US Treasury markets spent the week consolidating after the post-FOMC recalibration. The long bond was the best performer with the yield briefly dipping back below 3.5% on Thursday. For the week the 10-year has traded up modestly, putting the benchmark rate back toward 2.7%. In the belly, yields barely budged after the recent cheapening helped demand easily gobble up this week's new supply in 5- and 7-year paper. Despite a raft of Fed speak emphasizing that last week's commentary did not signal any change to policy, 2015 fed fund futures contracts were little changed and continue to project the rate will rise by at least 50 basis points beginning sometime next summer.

- EUR/USD continued to back away from the ominous 1.40 area, helped along by plenty of verbal intervention. ECB President Draghi put a new spin on his same old positions by saying the ECB's forward guidance implies short-term real rates will fall in the future. ECB's Liikanen said a negative deposit rate was no longer a "controversial subject." But perhaps the biggest verbal bomb came from the Bundesbank's Weidmann, who surprised many observers by seeming to reverse Germany's longstanding opposition to ECB QE by saying the bank might consider purchasing euro zone government bonds or top-rated private sector assets. The ECB meets next week and some analysts believe the bank needs to do something more than talk to show it's dealing with ever-sharpening disinflation.

- China's March flash manufacturing PMI slid to an eight-month low and saw its third consecutive month in contraction territory. The March reading could not be shrugged off as easily as weak February data that was blamed on seasonal distortions caused by the Lunar New Year. Asia markets moved higher on Monday in the wake of the data as it seemed to further cement the case for government stimulus, however later in the week respected former PBoC adviser Li Daokui cautioned that the State Council would probably not undertake more stimulus spending.

- After widening its currency trading band earlier this month, the PBoC kept markets guessing on the yuan this week. Early on, the central bank's yuan midpoint fixing was stronger, taking USD/CNY back below the key 6.20 level on Tuesday. However the midpoint was weaker in the back half of the week, reversing the some of the gains. USD/CNY closed out the week around 6.21.

- Starting April 1st with the beginning of the new fiscal year, Japan's sales tax will rise from 5% to 8%. The hike is part of Prime Minister Abe's broad reform program, specifically to help fulfil his promise to achieve a budget surplus by 2020. Data out on Friday suggested that Abenomics saw a mixed performance in February: nationwide inflation accelerated to 1.5% from 1.4% in January, however overall household spending saw a 2.5% decline, its first slip in six months. While the government clearly wants the central bank to take action to help cushion the blow to growth from the tax hike, there were reports this week that BoJ Governor Kuroda does not share its pessimistic sentiment as of yet. USD/JPY was pretty tepid until Friday, when the currency ramped up to close the week just shy of 103.

RTR - Knight Vinke sells Eni stake due to uncertainty over next CEO

(Reuters) - Knight Vinke Asset Management sold its nearly 1 percent of Eni (ENI.MI) last week because of concerns over how the state-owned Italian oil and gas group will choose its next chief executive, the head of the U.S-based activist investor said on Friday.

"We sold our entire stake, of just under one percent, in Eni a week or 10 days ago, because it is not clear how the next chief executive will be chosen," Chief Executive Eric Knight told Reuters in an interview.

"The decision must be taken based on merit and not political criteria," Knight added.

Eni, which is due to appoint a new CEO in April, is around 30 percent owned by the Italian government.

Industry sources say current CEO Paolo Scaroni might not be reappointed as the government of Matteo Renzi seeks new leaders for state-controlled groups.

Scaroni, currently under investigation in a corruption probe involving Eni's unit Saipem (SPMI.MI), has said he is ready for a fourth stint which would make him the longest-serving CEO of Italy's biggest oil company.

Scaroni and Saipem deny any wrongdoing.

The Italian government wants state-controlled companies to eject from their boards any director charged of financial crimes.

(BFW) Bouygues Says ‘Doesn’t Understand’ AMF Criticism Over SFR Offer


 BN 03/28 17:28 *BOUYGUES SAYS IT HAS `COMMUNICATED REGULARLY' ON OFFERS
 BN 03/28 17:27 *BOUYGUES SAYS `DOESN'T UNDERSTAND' AMF CRITICISM OVER SFR OFFER

Bouygues Says ‘Doesn’t Understand’ AMF Criticism Over SFR Offer
2014-03-28 17:32:59.698 GMT


By Steve Rhinds
     March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Bouygues has “communicated on a
regular basis regarding the content of its offers, contrary to
Altice/Numericable,” a company spokesman said by telephone.
  * NOTE: France’s AMF Says Bouygues, Vivendi, Altice May Risk
    Sanctions {NSN N35OLD6S9730 <go>}


Link to Company News:{ATC NA <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{EN FP <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{NUM FP <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{VIV FP <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Steve Rhinds at +33-1-5365-5072 or
srhinds@bloomberg.net

>>> Fed's George (non voter, hawk): Economy continues to grow steadily, drivers

Fed's George (non voter, hawk): Economy continues to grow steadily, drivers of the economy are improving, there has been a reduction in unemployment
- Could be some slow economic activity in Q1 as a result of inventory drawdown, and the Q4 inventory builds 
- As the economy picks up, there will be wage gains and confidence to help spending 
- some firms beginning to have trouble finding skilled and qualified workers 
- expects to see increasing wage pressure in the US labor market; inflation will gradually firm and move towards 2% target 
- forecasts 2.5% GDP this year, 3% in coming years 
- supportive of the Fed tapering QE 
- there are concerns over leaving rates too low for too long, prompts investors to take more risks, yield spreads are showing investors are taking risks 
- Consumer credit growth is accelerating, highlights the least credit worthy households are taking on increasing levels of debt 
- Confirms is looking at the reverse repo as a policy tool 
- Affirms first Fed meeting with Yellen shows continuity from Bernanke 
- have no firm date or path for future Fed interest rate moves 
- Fed will have to keep a close eye on how the economy does when it starts withdrawing stimulus; Fed will have to be careful in how it winds down accommodation. 
- Ukraine crisis only provides a small risk to US trade

>>> Hedge Fund’s $100m Iran Bet; Fortune Top Leaders

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

RED DOT READER: Hedge Fund’s $100m Iran Bet; Fortune Top Leaders 2014-03-28 16:53:22.271 GMT

By Arie Shapira and Molly Kissler March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Cover story and long-form feature topics include RD Legal’s bet on Iran, ex-Lehman currency trader Ted Yang, Wedgewood Partners CIO David Rolfe, Richard Branson’s “space tourism fantasy,” Klout, Jared Remy, Irving Azoff and Fortune’s 50 greatest leaders list. * For feedback or to receive Red Dot Reader in your Bloomberg inbox every Friday, email ashapira3@bloomberg.net

BLOOMBERG * “Jain Haunted by Rainmaker Past as Deutsche Bank Fines Multiply” (Bloomberg: NSN N30ID86TTDSL <GO>) - Anshu Jain won the job of Deutsche Bank co-CEO after leading its investment bank to record profit; two years later that rainmaker role is coming back to haunt him. * “Fraternity Chief Feared for Son as Hazings Spurred JPMorgan Snub” (Bloomberg: NSN N32PNT6TTDSK <GO>) -JPMorgan stopped managing an investment account earlier this month for a prominent client: the charitable foundation of Sigma Alpha Epsilon, one of the U.S.’s largest fraternities. * “Billionaires Buying Islands Off Australia Find Perilous Paradise” (Bloomberg Pursuits: NSN N2YCJF6TTDSP <GO>) - In the past three years, four of the most iconic Great Barrier Reef islands have been sold for a total A$25 million, a fraction of their former valuations. * “Ivy League Sailors Starting From Scratch to Battle Billionaires” (Bloomberg: NSN N2YEER6VDKHT <GO>) - Two Brown University alumni will be at the helm of Team Alvimedica’s 65-foot ocean racing yacht, which will compete against the world’s best sailors next month.

THE STREET * “Hedge Fund’s $100 Million Bet: Iran Will Pay for Terror Attack” (WSJ: http://on.wsj.com/1mqQ4MN) - RD Legal Capital plans to bet as much as $100 million that it can collect on court judgment against Iran three decades after a car bomber killed 241 American servicement at Marine barracks in Beirut. * “Why Trade Bonds When You Can Trade Ads?” (WSJ: http://on.wsj.com/1do4MB9) - MediaCrossing founder and former Lehman Bros. currency trader Ted Yang is part of a growing migration of Wall Street talent to Madison Avenue. * “High Conviction” (Barron’s: http://on.barrons.com/1mqQnat) - Profile of Wedgewood Partners CIO David Rolfe, whose “small handful of big bets has paid off nicely.” * “A Pension Fund Invests Against the Rules, and Wins” (NYT: http://nyti.ms/1mqQ5jM) - How a Tampa pension fund is unique in its approach to managing assets, which stood at $1.76 billion as of last September.

BUSINESS * “The World’s 50 Greatest Leaders” (Fortune: http://cnnmon.ie/1ds5XQ1) - Ford CEO Alan Mulally, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett make the top 10; Derek Jeter gets the 11th spot.

TECH * “The Virtual Genius of Oculus Rift” (Time: http://ti.me/1dwUfDY) - Oculus, a company being bought by Facebook, is working on a developer kit that is “still a far cry from the virtual reality experience it needs to sell to actual consumers.” * “Immigrants From the Future” (Economist: http://econ.st/1gy7oMC) - Cover story on how robots “offer a unique insight into what people want from technology.” * “Silicon Valley’s Avenging Angel” (Fast Company: http://bit.ly/1mqQ3s2) - If a company doesn’t have a presence on AngelList, a firm that finds funding for tech start-ups, it’s either “hiding something” or doesn’t know what’s going on. * “How Controversial Startup Klout Sold For Hundreds Of Millions Of Dollars” (Business Insider: http://read.bi/1dwUxL0) - Social influence tool Klout grew from founder Joe Fernandez’s obsession with Twitter and generated $10 million in revenue last year.

CONSUMER * “Failure To Launch: How New Mexico Is Paying For Richard Branson’s Space Tourism Fantasy” (BuzzFeed: http://bzfd.it/1mqQin0) - New Mexico, which invested almost a quarter billion dollars creating a hub for Virgin Galactic, is trying to keep the site from becoming the country’s “costliest, most futuristic ghost town.” * “A Fight Is Brewing” (NYT Magazine: http://nyti.ms/1ds56Pm) - Borg Bjergso and Jeppe Jarnit- Bjergso are quarrelsome identical twins who brew delicious, creative beer for competing companies. * “How Yoox Became the Amazon of the Fashion World” (Telegraph: http://bit.ly/1ds2sJu) - Little known Italian- based Yoox “handles the logistics, picking, packing, shipping, customs, returns and customer service” of some of the world’s leading luxury brands.

HEALTH CARE & DEFENSE * “Getting Cancer Wrong” (Newsweek: http://bit.ly/1ds2m4s) - A group of scientists is “making enemies of its own” in the war against cancer. * “The Chaos Company” (Vanity Fair: http://vnty.fr/1mtiE07) - The world’s third-largest private-sector employer, security firm G4S, “commands a force three times the size of the British military.”

POLITICS * “Sinkhole of Bureaucracy” (Washington Post: http://wapo.st/1mqQ7rK) - Deep inside an old limestone mine the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, employees slowly process the retirement papers of the government’s own workers by hand. * “The Catholic Roots of Obama’s Activism” (NYT: http://nyti.ms/1mqQ9QF) - President Obama’s recent visit with the Pope was a “potential point of confluence,” despite his close ties to the Catholic community. * “The Drone That Shot Down the Feds” (WSJ: http://on.wsj.com/1mqQqmz) - This month, 29-year-old Austrian entrepreneur Raphael Pirker won his court case against the U.S. government, leaving the field wide open for private drone flight.

INTERNATIONAL * “Sarajevo: The Crossroads of History” (FT Magazine: http://on.ft.com/1do4Wso) - A look at how the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand is still affecting the world 100 years later.

SPORTS * “For Jared Remy, Leniency Was the Rule Until One Lethal Night” (Boston Globe: http://b.globe.com/1mqQfrp) - The son of the man recognized as “the president of Red Sox Nation” kept getting chances after multiple run-ins w/ the law “until one lethal night.” * “The Man in the Middle” (NYT: http://nyti.ms/1do4Rox) - Irving Azoff, a 66-year-old music industry executive, helped broker the deal that brought Phil Jackson to the Knicks as team president. * “Is Being A Good Mentor (And Michelle Obama’s Brother) Enough To Save Craig Robinson’s Job?” (BuzzFeed: http://bzfd.it/1mqQaUB) - The president’s brother-in-law and head coach for Oregon State’s basketball team loses more than he wins. * “Curtis Malone: Basketball Mentor and Drug Dealer” (Washington Post Magazine: http://wapo.st/1rKSK8Z) - Curtis Malone was a go-to guy for top college basketball coaches for recruiting Washington, D.C.’s best players; he was also a major player in an East Coast cocaine and heroin distibution ring.

REVISITED * “The Long Fall of One-Eleven Heavy” (Esquire, July 2000: http://bit.ly/1mqQlz6) - A look at SwissAir Flight 111 crash after the recent vanishing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370.

For all Red Dot weekly pieces: NI REDDOT <GO>

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporters on this story: Arie Shapira in New York at +1-212-617-1488 or ashapira3@bloomberg.net; Molly Kissler in New York at +1-212-617-7201 or mkissler@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brad Skillman at +1-212-617-2763 or bskillman1@bloomberg.net Libby Sallaberry