Barron's Saturday Summary: Positive on SIRI, QCOM, CCJ, BBBY, HD, M; Cautious on AVP, INTC
- Cover story: Positive on SIRI: After recovering from a near-bankruptcy, satellite radio company has nearly 26M subscribers and annual sales approaching $4B, giving it a market value in line with DISH and topping NFLX, yet investors still underestimate the companys potential and its effective monopoly in satellite radio; with strong free cash flow, it could buy back 40% of shares outstanding in the next five years, and stock could jump 50%.
- Tech Trader: Cautious on INTC: Return to its roots as chipmaker could boost stock, but investors should hold off buying until company provides answers to some nagging questions after the new year; in addition, there is no guarantee that having the best chips at a reasonable price will win Intel business in tablets and smartphones.
- Trader: Cautious on AVP: After years of strategic and operational mistakes, company is returning to basics under new CEO Sherilyn McCoy, and barring strong rebound remains a potential acquisition target; Americas public stock market has faced a de-equitization, with far fewer U.S. publicly traded stocks available for purchase today than there were in the late 1990s, partly due to buybacks and partly due to the rise in assets under management by private equity.
- Follow-Up: A poll of bullish money managers finds market is heading even higher, and might top 18,000 next year, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs amid improving economy and Fed move to maintain ultra-low interest rates; Cautious on HAIN: Company has boosted sales primarily through acquisitions and new distribution channels, but free cash flow numbers raise questions and shares seem overvalued.
Features:
1) Positive on BBBY, COH, CHS, DDS, DG, HD, KSS, M, URBN: Nine retail stocks are the rare bargains in sector, with modest P/E ratios relative to expected earnings growth.
2) Positive on QCOM: Wireless chip maker is growing at a slower rate these days, but the outlook is still good for its existing and new businesses, and shares should rise 20%.
3) With stocks up, investors should consider trimming U.S. stocks and small-caps while holding on to Europe and emerging markets, as well as parking cash a bank instead of with a broker.
- Small Caps: Positive on BHLB: Firm, one of New Englands largest community banks, is another winner of the consolidation trend, and its acquisitions are helping boost loan growth and earnings.
- Hedge Funds: Interview with Philip Weingord, Founder, Seer Capital Management, which focuses on distressed and special situations in residential and commercial mortgage-backed bonds, and which has made money on JCP, FNMA, FMCC, and Punch Taverns; Interview with Cliff Corso, CEO and CIO, Cutwater Asset Management, who says that in 2014 we could see another double-digit year in equities, notwithstanding that there may be a correction.
- European Trader: Investors shouldnt worry about ECBs recent forward guidance on monetary policy, and instead focus on the opportunities it creates.
- Asian Trader: Korea is attractive not just because it is the cheapest market in Asia right now, but because it is probably the most leveraged to global growth, says Mozamil Afzal, chief investment officer at EFG Asset Management in London.
- Emerging Markets: Despite troubles in emerging markets this past year, shares of large-cap growth companies catering to middle class consumers have been strong (Positive on Hindustan Unilever, Ambev, Want Want China, BIDU, Naspers); Some Macau-based casino giants could face headwinds next year (Cautious on Sands China, Wynn Macau, Melco Crown, Galaxy Entertainment).
- Commodities: Prices for ethanol are still climbing, despite cut in U.S. targets for its use, since prices are still low enough to entice buyers overseas.
- Streetwise: Positive on CCJ: Shares of uranium producer are showing signs of life as demand improves while little new supply has become available, and improving prices for the metal should energize the stock.