Asian Market Update: Japan manufacturing slows further; China top banks see rising NPLs
***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN FEB PRELIM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -2.3% V +0.3%E (largest decline in 8 months); Y/Y: 6.9% V 9.9%E - (JP) JAPAN MAR MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.9 V 55.5 PRIOR (2nd straight decline) - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAR TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.2% V 0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 4.3% V 4.3%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 4.6 V 0.5% PRIOR (3-month high) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 WESTPAC EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE INDEX: 108.4 V 103.4 PRIOR (multi-year high) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -1.7% V +2.0%E (2nd straight decline) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 58.2 V 58.5 PRIOR; ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 67.3 V 70.8 PRIOR (first decline in 4 months) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 6.9% V 7.0% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA FEB CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: $4.5B V $3.3B PRIOR; GOODS BALANCE: $5.4B V $4.4B PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE FEB CREDIT CARD BAD DEBTS: 19.8M V 20.6M PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BILLINGS: 3.1B V 3.6B PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE FEB MONEY SUPPLY M1 Y/Y: 7.8% V 10.7% PRIOR; M2: 2.4% V 3.6% PRIOR - (UK) UK MAR HOMETRACK HOUSING SURVEY M/M: 0.6% V 0.7% PRIOR; Y/Y: 5.7% V 5.4% PRIOR
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.4%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Jun S&P500 +0.3% at 1,856, Jun gold +0.2% at $1,296, May crude oil -0.2% at $101.45/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - With anticipated drop-off in consumption going into the start of higher sales tax this week, Japan manufacturing is already slowing. Markit PMI fell for the 2nd consecutive month with a 0.6pt decline, while the Output component was down over 4pts at 54.2. Separately, industrial production for Feb fell sharply as well - 2.3% drop was the biggest decline in 8 months. - Also of note in economic data, Australia TD Securities inflation was in line with prior at 2.7% y/y, which is at the high end of RBA's target range. TD Sec chief economist said it was likely this recent pickup in inflation that has kept the RBA from talking down the currency in recent months, and given the apparent build-up in inflation, RBA may hike rates at least once before the end of 2014. - All of China's top 5 banks have now reported FY13 results and the results are seen as somewhat alarming. China Construction Bank and Bank of Communications both saw an increase in y/y net profits, however impairment losses for both rose and ROEs fell. A separate report summarized that China's top 5 banks saw a 127% increase in bad debts to CNY59B. - North Korea has maintained its belligerent stance, alarming defense officials in the South. Over the weekend, North Korea Foreign Ministry said it will not rule out a new nuclear test to boost its "nuclear deterrence." Later in the day, Pyongyang announced a no-sail, no-fly warning off west coast, near disputed border with South Korea before conducting a live artillery drill. - US State Sec Kerry and Russia Foreign Min Lavrov held high-profile talks in Paris on Sunday with mixed results. While the two agree to pursue a diplomatic path toward resolving the situation in Ukraine, they appear to remain far apart in their positions. Russia is calling for a federal structure in Ukraine govt that would allow more regional autonomy to the eastern cities and to keep Russian language as the 2nd official language of the country as a backdrop to "broadest cooperation." Kerry's post-meeting remarks indicated that it will not discuss federal govt structure without Ukraine leadership at the negotiating table, which has previously opposed granting more autonomy to the east. Instead Kerry continued to demand that Russia pulls back its large troop presence on Ukraine's borders.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1521 v 6.1490 prior setting (3rd consecutive weaker setting; weakest setting since Sept 18th) - USD/CNY: Offshore Yuan (USD/CNH) weakens beyond CNY6.2150; 1-year low - USD/TRY: Turkish Lira strengthens in early trade following a strong showing for PM Erdogan's ruling party in municipal elections; USD/TRY falls below TRY2.1750, 1-month high for Lira
- USD majors are mixed in Asian session - AUD/USD pared its initial gains above $0.9250, falling below $0.9230; USD/JPY is in a 15-pip range above 102.80; and NZD has continued to come off its multi-year highs seen last week to trade down over 25pips from session highs around $0.8650. EUR/USD is also contained to a narrow 15-pip range around $1.3750 ahead of critical flash CPI data in the European session that could tip the scales for the upcoming ECB decision later this week.
***Equities*** US markets: - YHOO: Said to be creating competitor to YouTube - financial press - TWTR: Said to be in plans to release mobile ad product for apps - financial press - GM: Expands ignition switch related recall by another 824K vehicles (in addition to the 1.6M already recalled); US House Committee panel provides update on GM recall details - financial press
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Intime Department Store Group 1833.HK -6.6% (share, bond issuance to Alibaba; enters JV); Suning Appliance 002024.CN -2.6% (FY13 results) - Financials: China Minsheng Bank 1988.HK -2.9% (FY13 results); Bank of Communications 3328.HK -1.6% (FY13 results); China Pacific Insurance Group 2601.HK +0.9% (FY13 results); China Construction Bank 939.HK +0.8% (FY1 results); Haitong Securities 6837.HK +1.4% (FY13 results) - Materials: Angang Steel 347.HK +1.4% (FY13 results); BHP Billiton BHP.AU +1.4% (exec comment on China iron ore demand) - Energy: China Shenhua Energy 1088.HK flat (FY13 results) - Industrials: Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology 1157.HK -6.2% (FY13 results); China Railway Construction Corp 1186.HK +1.7% (FY13 results); China Railway Construction 390.HK +1.7% (FY13 results); Metallurgical Corp of China 1618.HK +3.9% (FY13 results); Mitsubishi Motors 7211.JP +1.9% (to acquire Ford factory in Philippines) - Technology: Quanta Computer 2382.TW -5.5% (FY13 results); Hon Hai Precision Industries 2317.TW -0.7% (FY13 results)
JAPAN MAR MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.9 V 55.5 PRIOR (2nd straight decline)- New Export orders 52.3 v 51.5 prior in Feb.- Output index 54.2 v 58.4 prior in Feb.- Markit economist: "Firms attributed this increase in output to last minute demand before the increase in the sales tax from 5% to 8%, which is due to be implemented in April this year... It will be interesting to see whether output in the manufacturing industry will continue to grow as fast after the increase in the sales tax is implemented."
Africa’s digital money heads to Europe
The mobile payment system that has revolutionised business and banking in sub-Saharan Africa is to come to Europe as Vodafone seeks to spread the popular digital currency outside emerging markets. Vodafone has acquired an e-money licence to operate financial services in Europe, with plans to launch M-Pesa (which means mobile money in Swahili) in Romania as a first step to potential expansion in the region. M-Pesa has become so popular in parts of Africa that it is now a virtual currency, offering a secure means of payment for people who do not have easy access to banking services. A mobile phone text message is all that is needed to pay for everything from bills and schools fees to flights and fish, and means that the mobile phone can double as an office for the continent’s smaller entrepreneurs. Vodafone now hopes to win over an estimated 7m Romanians who mainly use cash. Michael Joseph, Vodafone director of mobile money, said that the European e-money license would allow Vodafone to operate M-Pesa in other markets, although he indicated that the focus would be on central and eastern Europe. "There are one or two [countries] we are looking at but [these are] unlikely to be in western Europe in the next year or so," he said, adding that countries with a large migrant population such as Italy were potential markets. There was also the chance to extend the platform into savings, loans and insurance in the same way Vodafone had done in Africa, he added. Within little more than a year of launching its M-Pesa-based loans and savings platform, M-Shwari, at the end of 2012, Vodafone’s Kenyan operator banked more than $270m. Vodafone has also considered expanding M-Pesa to countries where it has partnership arrangements with the local telecoms groups but no mobile telecoms business. In Kenya, where M-Pesa launched in 2007, the platform is so widely used that a third of the country’s $44bn economy washes through the system, sold by 79,000 agents nationwide. It has since been extended to Tanzania, Egypt, Lesotho and Mozambique. More recently, M-Pesa has been introduced in India, where Vodafone is seeing rapid growth given the large numbers of people without bank accounts. More than 1m people have registered in India, although Vodafone expects that will accelerate if revised regulations being considered by the Reserve Bank of India ease restrictions on such money platforms. The launch comes amid controversy over other digital means of payment such as Bitcoin. However, M-Pesa is not a digital currency rather a means of exchanging money already on mobile phone accounts. Romanian M-Pesa customers will be able to transfer as little as one new Romanian leu (0.22 euro cents) up to 30,000 lei (€6,715) per day. "The majority of people in Romania have at least one mobile device, but more than one-third of the population do not have access to conventional banking," Mr Joseph said. M-Pesa had about 16.8m active customers at the end of last year, generating about €900m in transactions per month. While M-Pesa was originally conceived as a means to retain customers in Kenya’s mobile phone market, it is now profitable in its own right with $143m in revenues from the 18.2m M-Pesa customers in Kenya alone, or about 18 per cent of overall country sales.