TheChek News Flow

Imaging a Sale of Given

Yesterday, it was reported in an Israeli financial journal that Given Imaging Ltd. (Nasdaq-GIVN) had resumed sale discussions (discontinued earlier this year) with an asking price of $700M-$750M (~$22-$24 per share). Previously, GIVN announced on 10/17/12 that it was "evaluating a range of strategic options", including non-binding preliminary indications of interest. Potential mentioned buyers included two large foreign electronics/images companies and a well-known U.S. pharmaceutical company; GIVN had high price expectations (up to $1B deal value). Three investors are now reported to be interested in the company (two strategic and one financial). Since the initial discussions talks were discontinued, major investor Discount Investment Corp. (XTAE-DISI), which controls 46% GIVN S/O, announced it wants to sell its 46% equity stake to raise capital for its debt restructuring (before a judge in the Tel Aviv court). GIVN closed at $22.63 (11/25/13), up 6.6% on over 5x normal trading volume; the stock hit a yearly high of $22.99 intraday.

We view the probability of a sale as much higher this time around; the likelihood is directly correlated to lowering the sale price range and a clear selling signal from GIVN’s major shareholder. We are normally wary of gossipy deal reporting, especially when it appears focused on ferreting out potential interest for a company considering a sale. However, in this situation, there is some specificity to support a reasonable plausibility that GIVN may be negotiating a transaction (rather than just rhapsodizing about its desire to maximize shareholder value). Another GIVN shareholder, Discovery Group (3.7% S/O and an investor since 2011), would like the company to use its $143M in cash/investments for a $50M buyback. The company is eligible to receive a one-time tax benefit this year from a reduced tax on trapped profits (10% vs. 25%) of $54M; the net amount could be used for a special dividend or a share buyback. In any case, the company has a number of options to distribute cash to shareholders; the reemergence of takeover chatter suggests that is the preferred method.

A strategic buyer should be able to pay the highest price for GIVN. We estimate that 7%-10% savings/synergies (on $213M revenues) added to $43M EBITDA (2014E) at a 10x multiple would imply a $22.70-$24.75/share takeover value (with $1.80-$2.00/share additional value for every EBITDA multiple). A 1.0-1.1 PEG of estimated 25% LT growth rate and $0.94 EPS (2014E) imply a $23.50-$25.85/share takeover value. The average GIVN closing price for the prior two and three months is $19.75 and $18.91, respectively; a $25/share deal value would reflect a ~25%-30% price premium to those average prices. A financial buyer would be stretching at a price of $22-$24/share, even with GIVN option holders rolling over their equity; the average GIVN option strike price was ~$20/share at the end of 2012. While a bidding contest is a possibility, we believe DISI’s need for cash (or at least a deal announcement by the end of 2013) will likely put a cap on GIVN getting a frothy deal price. Absent a transaction, we estimate a $17-$18/share fundamental value for GIVN (~18x-19x P/E multiple).

Like many other Israeli-based companies, GIVN has a strong technology component, which in its case is combined with improving a normally invasive medical procedure. The company’s capsule endoscopy system features a PillCam capsule endoscope (a miniaturized video camera inside a disposable capsule that is naturally ingested by the patient and delivers high quality color video images of the inside of the gastrointestinal tract); the procedure is relatively painless. On the other hand, the GIVN share performance over the past four years has been relatively discomforting; the stock price has peaked over $22 and dropped under $14 three times each. Recently, GIVN announced weak 1Q13 financial performance in early May; the share price traded from $16 to under $14 by mid-June. A July announcement that Japan approved the Pillcam for diagnosing colon diseases helped push the stock back above $16 by mid-August. The stock price has had a steady increase since then, mainly due to potential sale rumors (from DISI wanting to monetize its equity stake), the general strength in U.S.-listed Israeli stocks and an expected 4Q13 clearance by the U.S. FDA of the company’s Pillcam COLON (with sales beginning in 1Q14). Overall, while the first go-around seems to have been focused on an unreachable price expectation, this time around GIVN appears focused on a realistic outcome which should better facilitate a takeover transaction.  

Private equity hold $789bn in cash

Private equity groups are holding more cash for acquisitions than they had at the height of the leveraged buyout boom, in spite of a fall in the volume of deals being done – raising concerns about overcapacity in the industry. Data compiled by Preqin, the research group, show that the value of unspent commitments to private equity funds, known as "dry powder", has surged to $789bn this year – an increase of 12 per cent since December 2012, after four years of decline. This compares with $769bn of unspent cash in 2007 – when the volume of private equity deals reached a peak – and the $829bn that went unspent in 2008, when deal volumes plunged 70 per cent as the financial crisis unfolded. In 2007, private-equity houses led $776bn-worth of deals, but the comparable figure stands at just $310bn in 2013, according to Thomson Reuters. According to research by Hamilton Lane, a private equity investor that tracks 2,000 funds, this combination of increased fundraising and decreased deal volume could lead to a record level of dry powder by the year end. Buyout groups’ rising cash piles reflect the fact that they have taken longer to invest their funds since the crisis, as they have found fewer good opportunities. But the increase in the capital overhang has been largely fuelled by a renewed appetite for private equity funds from yield-starved institutional investors. After a steep contraction in the aftermath of the crash, buyout groups have been able to raise more money from investors, partly because they have found ways to return cash from previous vehicles – mostly through refinancings and initial public offerings. This has helped Advent International, Warburg Pincus, CVC Capital Partners, Carlyle and Silver Lake raise more than $10bn each for new funds. According to Mario Giannini, Hamilton Lane’s chief executive, 2013 is on course to become "the fourth biggest fundraising year" of all time for the private equity industry as investors are lured by its higher returns. Private equity funds have attracted $279bn so far this year, more than the whole of last year, Preqin has found. While this is still about 40 per cent less than in 2007 or 2008, private equity groups can also count on $200bn to $300bn of "unofficial" co-investment capital that backers have set aside to invest alongside their fund managers to save on fees, according to Mr Giannini. Buyout fund managers charge 2 per cent on the capital pledged to their funds on average. Some industry participants warn that the cash overhang will drive asset prices up as groups feel the pressure to invest the money before the commitments expire, typically after five years. "Prices are full in the US and in Europe for the good assets," said Bob Brown, the managing director in charge of investor relations at Advent. "There’s more credit financing available, fundraising has recovered, investors are willing to spend more in co-investments and most private equity firms are behind their investment schedules." However, Mr Giannini said the weak volume of deals demonstrated that groups were not yet rushing to put money to work. "There is overcapacity, but there’s also discipline today on using that capacity," he argued.

After Hours Summary: HPQ +6.8%, AVAV +5.5%, TIVO +0.3%, TLYS -23.6%, BLOX -18.2%, ADI -3.3%, GAME -1.5% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: HPQ +6.8%, AVAV +5.5%, TIVO +0.3%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: DRTX -4.8% (announced FDA's acceptance for priority review of NDA for Dalvance (dalbavancin hydrochloride)), CROX+3.4% (hearing renewed rumors co is in talks with buyout firms; first mentioned by Bloomberg on Nov 13), GNC +1.4% (announced $500 mln share repurchase authorization; term loan increase and repricing), PROV +0.7% (announced new ~500k share stock repurchase plan)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: TLYS -23.6%, BLOX -18.2%, ADI -3.3%, GAME -1.5%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: VELT -16.7% (announced voluntary delisting from NASDAQ), LIME -13.4% (Board terminated employment of CEO John O'Rourke, promotes Adam Procell to be CEO), CVV -9.4% (disclosed a customer has made an assignment for the benefit of creditors)

Closing Market Summary: Nasdaq Gains While S&P 500 Ends Flat

The S&P 500 added less than a point while the Nasdaq outperformed with again of 0.6%. Stocks saw a brief dip during the opening hour, but the relative strength of the tech-heavy Nasdaq was enough to encourage the S&P 500's deliberate, day-long climb. Similar to yesterday, a final-hour sell off knocked theindices off their highs, but unlike yesterday, the S&P managed to stay out of the red. The discretionary sector (+0.5%) led from opening bell as all-around strength underpinned the growth-sensitive group. Luxury retailers took a cue from Tiffany (TIF 88.05, +7.06), which soared 8.7% after beating on earnings andrevenue. Meanwhile, apparel retailers rallied after Men's Wearhouse (MW 50.60,+3.53) offered to acquire Jos. A. Bank (JOSB 56.29, +5.69) for $55 per share.

Homebuilders also provided a measure of support to the discretionary space following a set of better-than-expected housing data. The iShares Dow Jones USHome Construction ETF (ITB 23.33, +0.75) jumped 3.3%.

Elsewhere, momentum names played a part in today's advance. While several of these listings fall under the discretionary umbrella, the entire group contributed to the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Facebook (FB 45.89, +1.07), LinkedIn (LNKD 222.93, +6.31), and Priceline.com (PCLN 1177.98, +18.81) gainedbetween 1.6% and 2.9% while the top index component, Apple (AAPL 533.40,+9.66), rallied 1.8%. In turn, the technology sector (+0.4%) ended among the leaders. Outside of consumer discretionary and technology, the industrial sector (+0.6%) was the only other outperformer among cyclical groups. The sector received significant support from two of its top components as Boeing (BA134.78, +1.78) and General Electric (GE 26.78, +0.05) posted respective gains of 1.3% and 0.2% following yesterday's underperformance. Countercyclical groups trailed throughout the session, but only utilities(-1.0%) settled with a noteworthy loss. Consumer staples, health care, and telecom services ended with losses between 0.1% and 0.4%.

Treasuries settled near their highs as the 10-yr yield ticked down two basis points to 2.71%. More notably, the 5-yr yield shed four basis points to close at 1.30%, its lowest level in nearly a month. Intraday participation was on the light side, but volume surged during the final hour as MSCI global quarterly review contributed to the increase in activity. When the dust settled, just under 830 million shares changed hands on the floor of the NYSE. In today's economic data, building permit issuances increased in both September and October. Permits rose from 926,000 in August to 974,000 in September and 1.034 million in October. The consensus expected 932,000 building permit issuances for both September and October. The jump in October brought permits to their highest level since June 2008. Delays from the government shutdown continue to plague the residential construction data. Reports on housing starts were not submitted on time, and the Census Bureau decided to push back the starts release until December 18. At that time, September, October, and November starts will all be released.

Also of note, the September Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index rose 13.3% while a 13.0% increase had been expected by the consensus. This follows the previous month's revised increase of 12.8%. The September Housing Price Index from the FHFA increased 0.3%, which followed an uptick of 0.4% observed during the prior month. Separately, the November Consumer Confidence Index fell to 70.4 from an upwardly revised 72.4 (from 71.2) in October. The consensus pegged the index at 72.4. Confidence in October plummeted as concerns about the economy following the government shutdown weighed heavily on the minds of consumers. With the shutdown ending, it was expected that confidence would begin to improve. Even though normal indicators of confidence -- equity prices, gasoline costs, and labor conditions -- all generally strengthened in November, doubts about economic growth, likely stemming from the poor rollout of the Affordable Care Act, lowered consumer expectations. Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be reported at 7:00 ET while weekly initial claims and October durable goods will be released at 8:30 ET. The Chicago PMI for November will cross the wires at 9:45 ET while the final reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey will be reported at 9:55 ET. The busy day will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of October leading indicators.

o Russell 2000 +33.6% YTD o Nasdaq +33.1% YTD o S&P 500 +26.4% YTD o DJIA +22.7% YTD

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Generali Says ‘Surprised’ by S&P Credit Watch Negative Warning 2013-11-26 21:20:53.339 GMT

By John Simpson Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Co. says its current situation “greatly improved” vs recent past. * Says latest 9 mos. results highest in past 5 yrs * Says it had solvency 1 ratio of 152% at end of Oct. and EU2.4b in divestments already implemented during yr * NOTE: Earlier, S&P Takes Rating Actions on EMEA Insurers On Criteria Revision NSN MWVTAQ6S972M <GO> * NOTE: Earlier, Generali Lack of Capital Slows Down Recovery, Bernstein Says NSN MWUYRA6KLVRQ <GO> Link to Statement: NSN MWW1VK6S972J <GO> Link to Company News:G IM <Equity> CN <GO>

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Simpson at +1-416-203-5726 or jsimpson12@bloomberg.net

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BFW 11/26 20:09 *COX CONSIDERING BID FOR TIME WARNER CABLE, DJ SAYS

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Cox Considering Bid for Time Warner Cable, DJ Says 2013-11-26 20:10:38.14 GMT

By Joshua Fineman Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Cox contemplating bid for Time Warner Cable either on its own or with others, DJ says, citing people familiar. Link to story: {NSN MWW0E4AIBMDD <go>} Link to Company News:{AAA NA <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{1026Z US <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{CHTR US <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{CMCSA US <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{TWC US <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>} First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Fineman at +1-212-617-8953 or jfineman@bloomberg.net

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BFW 11/26 20:07 *MONCLER SAYS IPO PRICE RANGE EU8.75-EU10.2 PER SHARE BN 11/26 20:02 *MONCLER SAYS IPO PRICE RANGE EU8.75-EU10.2 PER SHARE BN 11/26 20:01 *MONCLER COMMENTS IN E-MAILED STATEMENT ON CONSOB APPROVAL BN 11/26 20:00 *ITALY MKT REGULATOR APPROVES MONCLER LISTING ON MILAN EXCHANGE

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Moncler Gets Italy Mkt Regulator Approval for IPO Prospectus 2013-11-26 20:12:16.473 GMT

By Chiara Vasarri Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Moncler comments in e-mailed statement. * Says IPO price range EU8.75-EU10.20/shr * NOTE: Moncler Said to Start Presentations Next Week for Italy IPO {NSN MVWM4E1A1I4H <go>}

Link to Company News:{2942075Z IM <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>} First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the reporter on this story: Chiara Vasarri in Rome at +39-06-4520-6325 or cvasarri@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alessandra Migliaccio at +39-06-4520-6324 or amigliaccio@bloomberg.net

Americans and Oil: How Deep Is Your Love?

Weekly Demand Data Showing U.S. Oil Demand Jumping Recently Look Suspect

It seems America is falling back in love with oil—or at least that is what weekly numbers from the Energy Department show.

But oil demand is a slippery concept. The DOE's latest data show the U.S. burned an average 20.27 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended Nov. 15. That is up 7.4% year over year, a figure more redolent of China than America. It is the fastest pace of growth in oil demand since May 2010, when the numbers were flattered by 2009's economic malaise. Gasoline demand, meanwhile, was up 3.9%, and growth in October was apparently running at levels higher still, and not seen since late 2006.

Thing is, those growth rates look wrong.

With the weekly numbers, officials essentially take refinery output, add imports and stock draws and subtract exports and stock additions to calculate an implied "product supplied" total. Fittingly enough, these data get refined: Every month, with a time lag, the DOE publishes its Petroleum Supply Monthly report.

Naturally, there is some discrepancy. What is interesting is that the gap has been growing.

Throughout the decade or so leading up to 2005, the weekly implied demand numbers were usually between 1.5 million and two million barrels a day higher than the more refined monthly Supply numbers, based on a rolling 12-month average. That gap blew out to more than 2.5 million barrels a day in the feverish summer of 2008 before falling back. But it has been rising sharply again over the past year and is now back to precrisis levels, at 2.64 million barrels a day—an amount slightly bigger than the entire oil consumption of Canada.

Another set of data also suggests weekly numbers overstate demand. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates how much is spent on motor fuels. According to this, Americans spent $982 billion in real terms on motor fuels in the four quarters ended in September—the same level it has been stuck at since the start of 2012.

One possible explanation of the gap: The U.S. went from being a net importer of refined products to a net exporter, sustainably, in the summer of 2011. By August of this year, net exports were more than 1.5 million barrels a day. Given such a rapid swing, official data may underestimate the real level of exports, boosting the weekly implied demand figure.

U.S. refiners able to process cheap, landlocked domestic crude and export products such as gasoline have an incentive to ship as many barrels overseas as possible. While most U.S. product exports go elsewhere in the Americas, about a fifth head to Europe, according to Sanford C. Bernstein. Of all sectors of the global oil industry, Europe's refiners are most exposed to the increase in U.S. exports, especially if the real level is understated in the data.

Not only do Europe's refiners face weak demand at home and increasing competition from across the Atlantic. They also must deal with new export-oriented refineries opening in Asia and, later this decade, new Brazilian refineries to process that country's rising oil output.

Rather than raging thirst, rampant competition could be the real story beneath U.S. demand data.

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ONE 11/26 16:57 EDF: EDF ANNONCE LE LANCEMENT DE LA CESSION DE SA PARTICIPATION DANS VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT BFW 11/26 17:00 *EDF TO SELL 4.01% VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT STAKE IN PLACEMENT BN 11/26 16:58 *EDF SAYS VEOLIA STAKE SALE TO BE MANAGED BY MORGAN STANLEY BN 11/26 16:58 *EDF SAYS OFFER BEGINS IMMEDIATELY BN 11/26 16:58 *EDF TO SELL 4.01% VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT STAKE IN PLACEMENT BN 11/26 16:57 *EDF TO SELL VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT STAKE

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EDF to Sell Its 4.01% Veolia Environnement Stake in Placement 2013-11-26 17:01:22.646 GMT

By Andrea Snyder Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Private placement is through accelerated book building for institutional investors. * Offering to start immediately, be managed by Morgan Stanley * Stake represents 4.12% voting rights * EDF will hold no shrs in Veolia Environnement after sale

Link to Statement:{NSN MWVR3U3V2801 <GO>} Link to Company News:{EDF FP <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{VIE FP <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>} First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrea Snyder at +1-202-624-1831 or asnyder5@bloomberg.net

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BN 11/26 16:58 *EDF TO SELL 4.01% VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT STAKE IN PLACEMENT BN 11/26 16:57 *EDF TO SELL VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT STAKE

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EDF: EDF ANNONCE LE LANCEMENT DE LA CESSION DE SA PARTICIPATION DANS VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT 2013-11-26 16:57:30.958 GMT

EDF: EDF ANNONCE LE LANCEMENT DE LA CESSION DE SA PARTICIPATION DANS VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT

   COMMUNIQUÉ DE PRESSE 26 novembre 2013 Ne pas distribuer directement ou indirectement au Canada, en Australie ou au Japon

EDF ANNONCE LE LANCEMENT DE LA CESSION DE SA PARTICIPATION DANS VEOLIAENVIRONNEMENT

Electricité de France S.A. (EDF.PA) announces that it has initiated today the sale of a total of 22,024,918 Veolia Environnement S.A. (VIE.PA) shares, representing 4.01% of the share capital and 4.12% of the voting rights of Veolia Environnement as of June 30, 2013, by means of a private placement through an accelerated book building for institutional investors.

Upon completion of the offering, EDF will have sold all of its shares in Veolia Environnement.

The offering will commence immediately and will be managed by Morgan Stanley.

EDF intends to issue a press release upon the completion of the offering to disclose the results of the offering.

Disclairmer

No communication and no information in respect of the sale by EDF of Veolia Environnement shares may be distributed to the public in any jurisdiction where a registration or approval is required.  No steps have been or will be taken in any jurisdiction where such steps would be required.  The offer or sale of the Veolia Environnement shares by EDF may be subject to specific legal or regulatory restrictions in certain jurisdictions.  EDF, its shareholders and their affiliates take no responsibility for any violation of any such restrictions by any person.

This announcement is not a prospectus within the meaning of Directive 2003/71/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of November 4, 2003, as implemented in each member State of the European Economic Area (the "Prospectus Directive").

This announcement does not, and shall not, in any circumstances constitute a public offering, nor an offer to sell or to subscribe, nor a solicitation to offer to purchase or to subscribe securities in any jurisdiction.

The offer and sale of the Veolia Environnement shares by EDF in France will be carried out through a private placement to qualified investors, in accordance with article L. 411-2 of the French Financial and Monetary Code and other applicable laws and regulations.  There will be no public offering in France.

With respect to the member States of the European Economic Area, other than France, which have implemented the Prospectus Directive (each a "Relevant Member State"), no action has been undertaken or will be undertaken to make an offer to the public of the Veolia Environnement shares sold by EDF requiring a publication of a prospectus in any relevant member State.  As a consequence, the Veolia Environnement shares may only be offered or sold in any Relevant Member State pursuant to an exemption under the Prospectus Directive.

In the United Kingdom, this press release is directed only at persons who (i) are investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "Financial Promotion Order"), and (ii) "high net worth entities", "unincorporated associations" and other persons to whom it may otherwise be lawfully communicated under Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Financial Promotion Order (all such persons together being referred to as "relevant persons"). Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents.

Any investment decision to buy shares in Veolia Environnement must be made solely on the basis of publicly available information regarding Veolia Environnement.  Such information is not the responsibility of EDF or Morgan Stanley and has not been independently verified by EDF or Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley est autorisée au Royaume Uni (autorité compétente : Prudential Regulatory Authority). Les détails sur l'étendue de l'autorisation et du contrôle de Morgan Stanley par la PRA sont disponibles sur demande.

Morgan Stanley agit pour le compte d'EDF et pour le compte de personne d'autre dans le cadre du placement et ne sera responsable à l'égard de personne autre qu'EDF pour assurer les protections accordées aux clients de Morgan Stanley, ni pour fournir des conseils dans le cadre du placement.

Le présent communiqué ne doit pas être publié, transmis ou distribué, directement ou indirectement, sur le territoire du Canada, de l'Australie ou du Japon.

* * *

A propos d'EDF :

Le groupe EDF, un des leaders sur le marché de l'énergie en Europe, est un énergéticien intégré, présent sur l'ensemble des métiers : la production, le transport, la distribution, le négoce et la vente d'énergies. Premier producteur d'électricité en Europe, le Groupe dispose en France de moyens de production essentiellement nucléaires et hydrauliques fournissant à 95,9 % une électricité sans émission de CO[2]. En France, ses filiales de transport et de distribution d'électricité exploitent 1 285 000 km de lignes électriques aériennes et souterraines de moyenne et basse tension et de l'ordre de 100 000 km de réseaux à haute et très haute tension. Le Groupe participe à la fourniture d'énergies et de services à près de 28,6 millions de clients en France. Le Groupe a réalisé en 2012 un chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 72,7 milliards d'euros dont 46,2 % hors de France. EDF, cotée à la Bourse de Paris, est membre de l'indice CAC 40.

Contacts EDF :

Presse Carole Trivi & Alison Marquilly : +33(1) 40 42 46 37

Analystes et investisseurs Carine de Boissezon & Kader Hidra : +33(1) 40 42 45 53 David Newhouse (investisseurs US) : +33(1) 40 42 32 45

Ne pas distribuer directement ou indirectement au Canada, en Australie ou au Japon

CP EDF ABB