(BFW) Goldman Sees Tough 2014 For Miners on Excess Supply

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Goldman Sees Tough 2014 For Miners on Excess Supply 2013-12-13 11:57:47.507 GMT

By Tim Barwell Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Another tough year for stocks expected as commodities decline again due further supply growth, impact of cost reduction, productivity gains, Goldman says in note. * Goldman: Industry positioning will drive relative performance in 2014: growth, commodity exposure and cost position * Stocks with a combination of strong production growth in copper, oil will enable them to offset commodity price declines, outperform peers exposed to iron ore * Top Buy ideas: LUN (CL Buy), BOL (Buy) and FQM (Buy) * Top Sell ideas: RIO (CL Sell), Anglo (Sell) and KIO (Sell)

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To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Barwell in London at +44-20-7073-3512 or tbarwell@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net

(Efian) High five for largest hedge fund start-ups

High five for largest hedge fund start-ups

Last year was a tough time to launch a hedge fund in Europe.

According to trade magazine EuroHedge, only 86 European offshore hedge funds launched in 2012, the lowest number of new funds since the data provider began tracking the industry in 2000.

Barriers to entry have risen: prime brokers say any new fund has to battle to raise capital, cope with more demands from investors and handle a higher cost of doing business driven by more regulation – factors that together are deterring launches. On top of this, last year managers also had the eurozone sovereign debt crisis to grapple with, making investors uncertain and risk-averse.

Despite the record low number of launches, those that did take off were bigger. The average size of new funds was more than $100 million, compared with less than $50 million 10 years ago, according to EuroHedge.

And the quality of new funds crossing the line is undoubtedly higher. Only the best launches are getting away and they are raising more when they start.

Here Financial News looks at the five hedge funds launched in 2012 that were the biggest by the end of the year. We are looking only at start-up funds, rather than new funds launched by existing managers.

The five biggest start-ups at the end of 2012 were Frere Hall Capital Management, Hengistbury Investment Partners, Naya Management, Stone Milliner Asset Management and Verrazzano Capital.

Of the five, two received seed or cornerstone investment. Naya received a ticket from Blackstone, which normally allocates between $100 million and $150 million to its seed investments, while Stone Milliner received roughly

$800 million from Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital, where the main portfolio managers used to work. Three of the five came from blue-chip hedge fund firms – Naya and Hengistbury’s founders were formerly partners at Chris Hohn’s The Children’s Investment Fund, while Stone Milliner spun out of Moore Capital. Verrazzano was set up by a former trader at Gartmore, traditionally a long-only house, while Frere Hall was launched by a former proprietary trader at Goldman Sachs.

Among the five, there are three long/short equity funds, one is a commodities strategy and one global macro fund. It is too early to assess which are long-term survivors but here Financial News looks at how they have fared so far.

• Frere Hall Capital Management Current AUM: $650 million

Taimur Hassan was a managing director at Goldman Sachs – one of the youngest of the class of 2010 managing directors – who ran its oil trading desk before leaving in December 2011 to set up Frere Hall, named after a building in Karachi, the city in Pakistan where he grew up. Hassan is joined on the investment team by Robert Zizza, an analyst. Damian Dwan, who used to be a partner at hedge fund Camargue Capital Management, is the firm’s chief operating officer.

Hassan trades the energy markets and his style is to structure relative value trades rather than making big directional calls. Frere Hall launched an energy hedge fund on July 1 and the strategy gained 8.75% in the remainder of 2012, according to an investor letter. This year through September the fund is up 0.96%, after a fall of 5.63% in September erased much of the year’s gains.

The drop in performance during September came from losses in oil positions, while there were small gains on natural gas directional and relative value positions, the letter said: "Crude oil markets gave back some of their recent strength in September on the back of a partial restoration of Libyan production, the aversion of an immediate military strike on Syria, optimism of a breakthrough in relations between the United States and Iran, and continued deterioration in refinery margins."

The portfolio has active positions in crude oil, natural gas, distillate and fuel oil markets. The main share class of the fund charges a 2% management fee and a 20% performance fee.

Hassan was named in the Financial News 40 under 40 Rising Stars of Hedge Funds in 2012 and 2013. A spokesman for Frere Hall confirmed the contents of the investor letter.

• Verrazzano Capital Management Current AUM: $530 million

Former Gartmore trader Guillaume Rambourg was joined by four other founding partners at Paris-based Verrazzano. On the investment team, Karim Moussalem, formerly co-head of Delta One equity trading for Goldman Sachs, is senior investment officer and Rambourg’s former Gartmore colleague Tomás Pintó is senior investment officer and head of research. Verrazzano’s head of business development is Tim Williams – who was the senior investment officer at UBS Alternative and Quantitative Investments – and chief operating officer is Murielle Maman, formerly founder and chief executive of Lyxor Asset Management. Rambourg’s former partner at Gartmore, Roger Guy, is a partner in the management company.

In March 2012, Verrazzano launched two European long/short hedge funds with a total of $280 million. The Verrazzano European Opportunities fund invests in 40 to 80 stocks, while the Verrazzano European Focus fund runs a more concentrated portfolio of 20 to 30 stocks and has higher leverage and higher gross exposure to the markets. There is 90% overlap between the two funds.

The funds launched amid a sell-off in the markets driven by concerns over the eurozone. Between March and May 2012, the Eurostoxx 50 index dropped 15.6%, while the Opportunities fund lost 3.3% and the Focus fund fell 5.8%. Performance of the two funds improved in the rest of 2012 and the opportunities fund ended the year up 1%, and the focus fund up 1.45%.

This year, the Verrazzano European Opportunities fund is up 7.22% through September, while the more concentrated Verrazzano European Focus fund is up 9.79% in the first nine months of this year.

The funds made money at the start of this year from positions in defensive stocks, before being stopped out of several positions in value stocks and those linked to peripheral Europe in March after concerns over Cyprus. Verrazzano went back into the market in April and over the summer made money from positions in banks, industrials and construction companies in peripheral Europe that it had been stopped out of earlier in the year. It used market sell-offs in June and, to a lesser extent, August to increase gross and net exposure to the markets and recycled long positions into growth stocks and companies that do not rely on economic growth to see earnings upgrades. Verrazzano believes that UK companies are starting to look attractive.

At the end of September, the Opportunities fund’s five biggest holdings were Barclays, Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget, a Swedish basic materials company, Roche Holding, a consumer company, HSBC and AP Møller-Maersk, a Danish industrial company, according to its latest investor letter. Firm assets have grown to $530 million and Verrazzano plans to launch a long-only absolute return fund. The funds have had a strong October. This calendar year to October 18, the Opportunities fund is up 9.16%, while the Focus fund is up 13.04%.

A spokesman for Verrazzano confirmed the figures and the contents of the investor letter.

• Stone Milliner Asset Management Current AUM: $1.5 billion

A roughly $800 million ticket from Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital Management helped make Stone Milliner the biggest day-one launch of 2012, kicking off with about $1 billion. Stone Milliner chief investment officers Jens-Peter Stein and Kornelius Klobucar previously spent six years running money at Moore Capital.

The other two managing partners are senior portfolio manager Christopher Nicoll and Peter Murray, who has overall responsibility for business management. Murray was most recently co-head of global foreign exchange at Morgan Stanley. There are now about 30 on the team in total, based in London and Zug, Switzerland.

The Stone Milliner Macro fund’s returns have been split roughly 50/50 between emerging and developed markets, and typically 75% to 80% of the exposure is in FX and rates. There are a dozen people on the investment team.

The fund launched in January 2012, amid a trading environment characterised by risk-on/risk-off, with high correlations between markets and asset classes driven by fears over the future of the eurozone. Stone Milliner’s fund posted four negative months and four positive months, and was up about 1% by the end of August.

However, markets steadied after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi pledged in July that he would do "whatever it takes" to save the eurozone, and the fund capitalised on a better environment for fundamental investing to end its first year up 8.05%.

A lucrative trade for Stone Milliner since December, when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came into power after Japan’s general election, has been short yen against long Japanese equities. The yen has weakened and Japanese equities have rallied on the back of "Abenomics", Abe’s aggressive fiscal and monetary stimuli to reignite the Japanese economy.

This calendar year, the fund is up 8.08% through September and firm assets have grown to over $1.5 billion.

According to Stone Milliner’s latest investor letter, "uncertainty in financial markets has increased notably". This is on the back of the Federal Reserve’s decision in September not to reduce its pace of bond purchasing, the US government shutdown and the debt ceiling debate, all of which "argue against large positions". As a result, the fund continues to run a reduced level of risk.

It is long the US dollar against the yen, and long the euro against the yen, the letter said. It thinks that Japanese equities should benefit from Abenomics gaining traction and so the fund owns Nikkei options and a "modest amount" of futures. In fixed income, the fund has structured some relative value themes, one of which is a belief that growth in Norway will outperform that of Sweden, according to the investor letter. It is also short UK fixed income in a variety of instruments and short the front end of the US yield curve through options.

• Hengistbury Investment Partners Current AUM: $1.35 billion

Hengistbury founder Stuart Powers previously spent seven years at Chris Hohn’s activist hedge fund, The Children’s Investment Fund, where he was a partner and senior analyst, latterly running a separate portfolio that was a sub-fund of the firm’s main hedge fund. He left TCI in January 2011 and launched a global long/short equity hedge fund at Hengistbury a year later. Hengistbury is named after a place on the Dorset coast where Powers used to go on holiday and after Hengist, the founder of Kent, where Powers is from.

There are seven other partners in the firm, including Jon Sharp, the chief operating officer, who was most recently a director in prime services origination at Barclays Capital; senior analysts David Fairweather, Daragh Horgan and Angelo Putignano; and Tyne Cameron, head of investor relations.

The fund has a core focus on Europe across companies in all industry sectors with a market capitalisation of $2 billion upwards. Its strategy is based on fundamental stock analysis that aims to identify substantial discrepancies between market price and intrinsic value. It holds about 20 long positions and 30 shorts.

The fund launched with $25 million and gained 23.34% in its first 12 months. It grew to $600 million in its first year and soft-closed to new investors on January 1, 2013. This year the fund continued to grow through performance, gaining 13.26% in the first nine months of the year. Combined with inflows from existing investors, this beefed up assets to a current size of $1.35 billion. The plan is to close the fund at year end at around $1.5 billion.

Since it launched the fund has run a consistent net exposure to the markets of 60% to 65%. Its overall exposure to cyclical stocks is almost zero. Performance has been driven by successful stock picks on the long side, while the short book has not cost very much despite equity markets rising both this year and last.

Most investors are in the ‘B’ share class, which imposes a two-year hard lock, charges a performance fee of 17.5% and a management fee that reduces as assets grow.

A spokeswoman for Hengistbury confirmed the figures.

• Naya Fund Current AUM: c.$1 billion

Naya was the second start-up from a former senior partner at Chris Hohn’s The Children’s Investment Fund to launch in 2012.

Masroor Siddiqui, who worked at TCI from July 2009 to October 2011 as a partner responsible for global equity and credit investments, teamed up with Bruce Emery, ex-head of European equities at Citadel, for a new hedge fund venture. Before TCI, Siddiqui founded and ran California-based hedge fund manager Canyon Partners’ European business in London.

In May, Siddiqui was named to the board of News Corp, parent company of Financial News.

At Naya, which is a Hindu word for a new beginning, Siddiqui is chief investment officer and Emery is director of research. Ian Wylie, who was previously chief executive at European long/short manager Theorema Asset Management, joined as chief operating officer. There are four other individual partners in the firm, according to filings at Companies House.

The Naya Fund, which focuses on equities but is opportunistically able to take positions in credit, launched in July 2012 with about $200 million, including a seed investment in the region of $100 million from Blackstone and money from friends and family.

The fund gained about 2% in the rest of 2012, according to a person familiar with the situation.

This year the fund has gained 16% net of fees through the end of September, according to two people familiar with the situation, and assets have grown to about $1 billion, one of the people said. The fund is open to investment on a selective basis. Naya declined to comment for this article.

(BFW) GM Said to Sell Peugeot Stake at EU10/Shr

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BFW 12/13 08:17 *GM SAID TO SELL PEUGEOT STAKE AT EU10 A SHARE

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GM Said to Sell Peugeot Stake at EU10/Shr 2013-12-13 08:22:21.930 GMT

By Ruth David Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- GM sells 7% stake in Peugeot at EU10/shr, says person familiar with the situation who asked not to be identified. * GM said yday would sell 24.8m shares through a private placement to institutional investors, with Goldman handling sale * Peugeot closed yday at EU10.625

Link to Company News:{GM US <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{UG FP <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>} First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the reporter on this story: Ruth David in London at +44-20-3525-8095 or rdavid9@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Brian Lysaght at +44-20-7330-7908 or blysaght@bloomberg.net

(BofA-ML) Flow Show : Consensus is Long EU Short EM

* Consensus is Long Europe & Short EM – Chart 1 shows that the flow differential over the past 4 months stands at an extreme 97th percentile.
* No reprieve for EM assets this week ($3.5bn outflows from EM equities & bonds combined); meanwhile a record-extending 24 straight weeks of inflows to EU equity funds (inflows of $4.5bn this week is second largest YTD).
* Largest weekly outflows from bond and commodity funds since Jul/Aug’13.


>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: $1.4bn inflows (masks divergence between $5.9bn inflows to ETF’s and $4.5bn LO outflows)
- Bonds: largest weekly outflows since Aug’13 ($4.2bn) (Table 1)
- Commodities: largest weekly outflows since Jul’13 ($1.4bn)
- MMF: 2 straight weeks of inflows


>>> Equity Flows
- EM: 7 straight weeks of outflows ($1.9bn) (Table 2)
- Europe: 24 straight weeks of inflows ($4.5bn = second largest weekly inflow in 2013)
- US: modest inflows (all inflows via ETF’s)
- Japan: tiny outflows

* Consensus is Long Europe & Short EM – Chart 1 shows that the flow differential over the past 4 months stands at an extreme 97th percentile.
* No reprieve for EM assets this week ($3.5bn outflows from EM equities & bonds combined); meanwhile a record-extending 24 straight weeks of inflows to EU equity funds (inflows of $4.5bn this week is second largest YTD).
* Largest weekly outflows from bond and commodity funds since Jul/Aug’13.

(GS) Peugeot Off Conviction List on increased dilution risk; remains Buy

>>> What happened
Unconfirmed recent news reports (Reuters, December 12) suggest that PSA’s previously flagged capital increase of €3.5 bn may now include a rights issue at ‘below €7 per share’ (a 40% discount to our previous assumption of market price). According to the reports, the process would allow Dongfeng and the French state to acquire a 20% equity stake each; the family would be diluted to 15%. Reflecting this scenario, we reduce our 12-month SOTP-based price target to €12.1 (from €16.4) and remove PSA from our Conviction List; we reiterate our Buy rating. Since being added to the Conviction List on December 3, 2013, PSA is up 0.04% vs. the FTSE World Europe down 1.8%.

>>> Current view
In our view, PSA faces two key challenges: lack of economies of scale and a weak balance sheet. To address these issues, we believe it will need to form a comprehensive industrial partnership (most likely with Chinese automaker Dongfeng) and recapitalise its balance sheet in the process. Given the news that PSA is potentially contemplating a €3.5 bn capital increase at below €7.0 and a combined 40% stake for Dongfeng and the French state, potential dilution (as at least €2.4 bn is likely to be raised without pre-emptive rights) appears the most significant risk to shareholders.

Although the market was, in our view, comfortable with a ‘dilutive’ capital increase at €9.40 (as per October news reports), the increased dilution risk is likely to drive the share price in the near term. Over the medium term, we believe PSA will emerge as an ‘investable’ asset, well placed to benefit from a recovery in European volumes and pricing (see our industry report ‘Profit growth to drive further re-rating’, December 3). In our SOTP valuation, we continue to assume PSA divests its 57% equity stake in Faurecia, disposes of a 50% stake in Banque PSA and ultimately announces a comprehensive
industrial tie-up with Dongfeng, driving a re-rating of the core automotive business to 20% EV/sales. Key risks include weaker operating performance, higher cash burn, ongoing uncertainty over the potential capital increase, and failure to conclude an industrial partnership agreement.

(BFW) Peugeot PT Cut at Goldman; GM Stake Sale Negative, Exane Says

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Peugeot PT Cut at Goldman; GM Stake Sale Negative, Exane Says 2013-12-13 07:54:27.59 GMT

By Brian Lysaght Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Peugeot removed from Pan-Europe conviction buy list, PT cut to EU12.1 from EU16.4, Goldman Sachs says. * Cites Reuters report of rights issue discounted at EU7-shr; says increased dilution risk will impact shares short term, in medium term co will benefit from EU mkt recovery * Exane (outperform) cuts EPS ests., leaves PT unchanged at EU17 * GM sale of 7% stake at ~4% discount suggests GM has negative view of Peugeot’s prospects, that potential Peugeot-Dongfeng venture would compete with GM-SAIC venture * Commerzbank (add) says GM stake sale a surprise, may further undermine the alliance synergy target of $1.2b, which has alread been lowered * May also indicate Peugeot agreement with new partner, probably Dongfeng, is “just around the corner” * Macquarie (underperform) cuts 2013-15 EPS ests, says shareholders running dilution risks * NOTE: GM shares offered in private placement EU10-EU10.25 each, according to a person with knowledge of the transaction who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly: Bloomberg * Earlier: Peugeot Indicated 5.9% Lower in Lang&Schwarz Pre- Market NSN MXQIN26KLVS8 <GO> * GM Selling Peugeot Stake as Alliance Delivers Less Savings NSN MXPT0G6S972E <GO> * Yday: Peugeot Falls for 3rd Day After Charge, Capital Increase News NSN MXOQY96S972I <GO>

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

--With assistance from Roger Neill in London. Editor: Gaurav Panchal

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Lysaght in London at +44-20-7330-7908 or blysaght@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net

>>> What to look at today

US Market closed lower with Samll Cap outperforming today, volume @740m shares above average...today we area waiting for Nov PPI...VIX @ 15.54 +0.8%...Budget deal was passed last night...Brazil +0.11%...Japanese Yen hit further by reports of diversification at the GPIF pension fund and more speculation of additional BOJ easing as early as Q1 of 2014...Nikkei +0.40% (Weak yean)...North Korea's Kim Jong-Un has one less uncle; Supreme leader orders that his former right-hand advisor is executed just days after being removed from political duties; South Korea monitoring for any military instability following the purge...Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.4321% v 3.4600% prior (9th consecutive decline)...Shanghai -0.31%

Eur$ 1.3750 S&P fut +0.25% European fut +0.04%...

>>> Keep an eye on :
- ANA SM : Acciona Says Won’t Pay Dividend for 2013
- ARM LN : ARM Gains Post-Mkt, Intel Falls on Google Server Chips Report
- ATCOA SS : Atlas Copco Remains on Lookout for M&A Opportunities: JPMorgan
- AUTO : Expectations for Europe Autos & Auto Parts Too High: Nomura
- AZN LN : Bristol/AstraZeneca Win Panel’s Backing on Forxiga
- BOL FP : Bollore Hopes to Extend Autolib to London, Les Echos Says
- CEP SM : CEPSA Takes 25% Share in Suriname Offshore Block: Reuters Link
- DUFN VX : Dufry’s Hellenic Duty Free Deal EPS Accretive: Credit Suisse
- EAD FP : EADS CEO Urges EU to Commit Funding for Drone Project: FT
- KUD VX : Cut to sell at UBS --> -1.9% Pre Market
- MGX GY : Magix Announces Buyback Offer at EU3/Share Starting Dec. 23 --> +8.3% Pre Market
- MB IM : Bollore Ready to Raise Mediobanca Stake to 8%, Corriere Says
- MONC IM : Moncler Retail Offer 14 Times Oversubscribed
- NOVN VX : Novartis to Close Ontario Plant, Cut 300 Jobs: Globe & Mail Link
- OR FP : L’Oreal’s Agon Repeats Co. Seeks 1 Bln New Clients: L’Opinion
- PC IM : Pirelli to Sell Steel-Cord Unit to Bekaert, Repubblica Says
- UG FP : GM Sold entire stake in Co, GS Sole book runner, shares to be offered at e10/10.25
- RSA LN : RSA Group CEO Resigns; RSA Ireland to Get GBP135m Capital Today, will reduce 2013 earnings, to Impact dvd.
- SAA1V FH : De Mol Doubts Sanoma’s Ability to Invest in SBS, FD Reports
- SAP GY : Former SAP CEO Hopp Most Successful DAX Manager: Handelsblatt
- TNET BB : Telenet Competitors Get Cable Access at Discounts of 23-30%
- VIE FP : Veolia Water Unit to Discuss 700 ‘Voluntary’ Job Cuts
- VIV FP : Vivendi’s Brazilian Unit GVT, EchoStar End Talks on Venture

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades

>>> Up
*ACCIONA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN
*BASHNEFT RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*BREMBO RAISED TO BUY VS ADD AT BANCA IMI
*CAT OIL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*EDP RENOVAVEIS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*HOCHSCHILD RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*METRO AG RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT CITI
*PEUGEOT CUT FROM CONVICTION BUY AT GOLDMAN, STILL BUY
*SANDVIK RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*SNAM RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*ST. JAMES’S PLACE RAISED FROM EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*TATNEFT RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*TDC RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*TNT EXPRESS RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*VERBUND RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS

>>> Down
*ANGLO AMERICAN CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*AXEL SPRINGER CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*AZ ELECTRONIC MATERIALS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*CAIRN CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*CENTRICA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCGEN
*DELTA LLOYD CUT NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*DRAX CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT AT CITI
*DOMINO PRINTING CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*EDP RENOVAVEIS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*ENEL SPA CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*FORTUM CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD AT NORDEA
*IBERDROLA CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*IPSEN CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*KUDELSKI CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*RWE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN~
*THOMAS COOK GROUP CUT TO REDUCE VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA

>>> PT Change
*Enel Green Power PT Raised to EU2.3 vs EU2.1 at Kepler Cheuvreux
*Generali PT Raised to EU16.01 vs EU13.47 at Morgan Stanley

>>> Initiation
*ABERTIS RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT HSBC, PT EU15
*ADECCO RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY; PT CHF69
*BP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*HAYS RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY; PT 150P
*NOVATEK RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE; PT $141/GDR
*PAGEGROUP RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY; PT 550P
*RANDSTAD RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY; PT EU46
*STATOIL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS

>>>> Country Sector Stock call
>> Stocks
*A2A REMOVED FROM CONVICTION SELL AT GOLDMAN, STILL A SELL
*PEUGEOT CUT FROM CONVICTION BUY AT GOLDMAN, STILL BUY
*SCHRODERS ADDED TO RECOMMENDED PORTFOLIO AT NOMURA
>> Sectors
* AUTO : Expectations for Europe Autos & Auto Parts Too High: Nomura
* Nomura Removes Tactical Hedge in Europe Recommended Portfolio
* UK OIL & GAS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT UBS
*UK UTILITIES CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*UK TRAVEL & LEISURE RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT UBS
*UK MINERS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*EUROPEAN TELECOMS RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM NEGATIVE AT BARCLAYS

>>> Asia Update

Asian Market Update: USD/JPY hits 5-year highs as speculation builds for more BOJ easingT

***Observations/Insights*** - Adobe reports in line and offers soft near-term guidance, but also raises long-term growth projections, sending shares higher afterhours. - US House of Reps passes the budget deal with a resolute 332-94 margin with minority dissents on both sides of the aisle. - Japanese Yen hit further by reports of diversification at the GPIF pension fund and more speculation of additional BOJ easing as early as Q1 of 2014. - North Korea's Kim Jong-Un has one less uncle; Supreme leader orders that his former right-hand advisor is executed just days after being removed from political duties; South Korea monitoring for any military instability following the purge. - Peru, Chile central banks on hold as expected.

***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN OCT FINAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.0% V 0.5% PRELIM; Y/Y: 5.4% V 4.7% PRELIM; CAPACITY UTILIZATION M/M: 1.2% V 1.2% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV NON-RESIDENT BOND HOLDINGS: 65.1% V 64.8% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 129.4 V 128.4 PRIOR; M/M: 0.8% V 5.0% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV BUSINESS MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.7 V 55.9 PRIOR (3-month high) - (SG) SINGAPORE Q3 FINAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1.8% V 1.8% PRELIM - (SG) SINGAPORE OCT RETAIL SALES M/M: -3.2% V +0.9%E; Y/Y: -9.4% V -5.7%E; RETAIL SALES EX AUTO Y/Y: -0.9% V -0.3% PRIOR - (KR) South Korea Oct Conference Board Leading Economic Index m/m: +1.6% v +0.6% prior - (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.00%; AS EXPECTED - (CL) CHILE CENTRAL BANK LEAVES OVERNIGHT RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 4.50%; AS EXPECTED

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.4321% v 3.4600% prior (9th consecutive decline) - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥250B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥250B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB and ¥1T T-bills outright - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 2017 Bonds; avg yield 3.0148%, bid to cover 4.79x - (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Assets Week ending Dec 11th: $3.950T (record high) v $3.889T prior; M1 y/y change: 8.5% v 8.4% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.4% v 6.4% w/w

- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,163 tonnes (lowest since July 11th) from 10,208 tonnes - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 6.0 tonnes to 827.6 tonnes (lowest since Jan 2009)

- Japanese yen selloff accelerate in early session after Nikkei reports over building speculation for more easing. USD/JPY hit its highest levels since Oct 2008 above 103.80, while EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY are up over 60pips above 142.80 and 92.70 respectively. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are down are well off the highs in the afternoon session, falling below 0.8920 and 0.8220, helped by the tailwind for the greenback following impressive retail sales numbers reported in the US session ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) PBoC should keep liquidity at moderate loose level - Chinese press - (CN) China Ministry of Commerce: China ends dumping duties on some US vehicles; Effective from Dec 15th - financial press - (CN) Beijing City may promote trials for SOE preferred stock - Chinese press - (CN) China Academy of Macroeconomic Research: Sees 2014 GDP at 7.8% - (JP) According to QUICK Corp, over 70% of analysts surveyed expect further easing by the BOJ in H1 of 2014; 2% expect additional easing in the April-June quarter and 19% see it happening by the end of March - Nikkei - (JP) According to Federation of Electric Power Companies, Japan's 10 power companies generated 71.96B kwh in Nov, -0.5% y/y - (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Japan to almost double bilateral currency swap with Indonesia and Philippines - (JP) Japan Pension Fund (GPIF) to diversity portfolio beyond bonds, stock for the first time; to target overseas infrastructure - Japanese press - (KR) South Korea sees no specific movement by North Korea military - press - (KR) North Korea's Jang Song Thaek said to have been executed by authorities - financial press - (AU) Australia PM Abbott: Australia Central Bank (RBA) may get involved in currency market sometimes - (NZ) BNZ chief economist: May see 2014 GDP above 4%; House prices to continue rising amid strong job market - NZ press

- (US) US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PASSES 2-YEAR BUDGET PLAN; Voting results: 332-94 (62 Republicans and 32 Democrats voted against the deal) - NPD: Nov total video game sales $2.55B v $791.1M m/m, +7% y/y

***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.9%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.4%, Mar S&P500 +0.3% at 1,773, Feb gold +0.2% at $1,227, Jan crude oil +0.1% at $97.56/brl

US markets: - CNDO: Presents interim data from autism study at Neuropsychopharmacology Meeting; +20.8% afterhours - ADBE: Reports Q4 $0.32 v $0.32e, R$1.04B v $1.04Be; +7.8% afterhours - DGX: Raises 2013 EPS guidance to $3.90-3.95 v $3.91e; Affirms Rev down 3.5% y/y; +1.3% afterhours

- UTX: Guides initial FY14 EPS $6.55-6.85 v $6.83e, R$64B v $66Be; Sees FY13 EPS around $6.15 v $6.15e (prior forecast $6.10-6.15); Rev $63B v $63.1Be - investor day slides; -1.1% afterhours - INTC: Google said to be considering plans to design its own server chips using ARM technology - financial press; -2.0% afterhours - ZQK: Reports Q4 $0.04 (adj) v $0.04e, R$476M v $509Me; -4.9% afterhours - APC: Kerr McGee unit has been held liable over Tronox spinoff; May have to pay over $5B - press; -9.3% afterhours

Notable movers by sector: - Materials: Showa Denko 4004.JP +1.3% (capex plans) - Consumer staples: Fonterra FCG.NZ +0.9% (FY14 guidance) - Industrials: AVIC Sanxin Co Ltd 002163.CN -4.4% (FY13 guidance); Ningbo Port 601018.CN +6.3%, Ningbo Marine 600798.CN +10.1%, Jiangsu Aucksun 002245.CN +4.3% (China State Council on Zhoushan Islands development) - Financials: Financial Street Holdings 000402.CN +2.2% (FY13 guidance) - Technology: Aisino Co Ltd 600271.CN +2.6% (announces acquisitions); Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control 002402.CN +2.1% (issues shares on Capex); High Tech Computer Corp 2498.TW +2.5% (favorable UK court decision); Epistar 2448.TW +4.0%, Everlight 2393.TW +5.9%, Lextar 3698.TW +6.4% (positive comments from Credit Suisse) - Energy: Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical 338.HK +5.5%, Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fibre 1033.HK +7.2%, Liaoning Huajin Tongda Chemicals 000059.CN +5.8% (China NDRC raises fuel prices) - Healthcare: Jiangsu Sihuan Bioengineering 000518.CN +3.6% (issues share for clean fuel project)

> US Cloe Dow -0,80 SPX Nazdaq

Closing Market Summary: Major Averages Slide While Russell 2000 Outperforms

WRAPX The major averages finished the session on a lower note as the S&P 500 lost 0.4% while the Nasdaq shed 0.1%. The Russell 2000, which paced the retreat on Tuesday and Wednesday, added 0.2%, trimming its December loss to 3.5%.

After spending the first half of the session in a steady retreat, the S&P 500 found technical support in the 1772 area. Upon reaching that level, the index reversed sharply, and marched back to its flat line. There was no particular catalyst responsible for the turn, but steady inflows into influential cyclical sectors paved the way for a broad-market rebound. Although the S&P 500 battled back to its flat line, final-hour selling pressured the index to a modest loss.

Financials (unch) and industrials (+0.1%) led the afternoon bounce while energy (+0.5%) joined the rally in progress.

The financial sector was buoyed by regional banks as the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE 39.14, +0.26) jumped 0.7%.

Elsewhere, the industrial space received support from defense contractors with the PHLX Defense Index advancing 0.5%. Transport displayed intraday strength,but the Dow Jones Transportation Average surrendered its gain into the close. The bellwether complex settled flat. For its part, the energy sector finished near its session high even as crude oil surrendered its gain, ending flat at $97.46/bbl.

While most cyclical groups took part in the afternoon climb, the tech sector (-0.7%) struggled to keep pace with the broader market. Networking names pressured the largest S&P 500 sector after Oracle (ORCL 33.60, -0.96) was downgraded at RBC Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley. Oracle fell 2.8% while peers F5 Networks (FFIV 81.99, -2.25) and JDS Uniphase (JDSU 11.80, -0.38) lost 2.7% and 3.1%, respectively.

One tech component, Facebook (FB 51.83, +2.45), was immune to the sellingpressure following news the stock will be added to the S&P 100 and S&P 500. On the countercyclical side, the utilities sector (+0.1%) outperformed while consumer staples (-1.4%), health care (-0.8%), and telecom services (-0.4%)lagged. Notably, the health care space wa pressured by managed-care names like Humana (HUM 100.47, -1.46) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH 71.01, -1.13 while biotechnology rallied. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 215.72,+1.53) advanced 0.7%. Today's selling contributed to an increased demand for volatility protection,sending the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.61, +0.19) to its highest close since October 15. Trading volume was just above average as 740 million shares changed hands onthe floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Treasuries registered modest losses, sending the 10-yr yield up two basis points to 2.88%.

Initial claims for the week ending December 7 spiked to 368,000 (consensus 315,000) from 300,000. The Department of Labor said it is still experiencing problems with seasonal adjustment volatility, which means the headline is probably not as disappoint as it seems at first blush.

Separately, the retail sales data produced a cleaner read of things and it haspainted a mostly encouraging picture for personal consumption activity. Retail sales increased 0.7% overall in November following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase (from 0.4%) in October. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.4%on top of an upwardly revised 0.5% increase (from 0.2%) in October.

Sales gains were pretty broad-based. The notable exceptions were gasoline station sales (-1.1%), which tracked lower gasoline prices and clothing and accessories stores (-0.2%), which tailed off following a strong 2.6% increase in October.

Also of note, October business inventories increased 0.7% after increasing 0.6% in September. The Briefing.com consensus expected business inventories toincrease 0.3%.

The big upward surprise in inventories resulted from a large surprise in the previously released wholesale inventories report. Total business inventories include manufacturers, merchant wholesalers, and retailers. Typically, manufacturers (0.1%) and wholesalers (1.4%) are known prior to the release,but in this case the wholesaler data was not released until after the consensus made its prediction.

Tomorrow, November PPI and core PPI will be released at 8:30 ET.

o Nasdaq +32.4% YTD o Russell 2000 +29.9% YTD o S&P 500 +24.5% YTD o DJIA +20.1% YTD