----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 11 2014 13:29:24
Japan PM Abe to See BOJ Kuroda This Month—Sources
Plan Comes as Associates Warn Japan's Economy Could Face Danger
TOKYO—Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently told people close to him that he is planning to see Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda this month to discuss monetary policy, people familiar with the matter said.
Mr. Abe's plan comes as many of his close associates warn that Japan's economy could face danger if policy makers underestimate the potential damage from a higher sales-tax rate that went into effect April 1. The best way to fight headwinds from the tax rise would be for the BOJ to expand its monetary easing program, they say.
It wasn't clear in what setting Mr. Abe planned to see Mr. Kuroda, but if the two hold an official one-on-one meeting, it would mark the first since December last year. Before the December meeting, the two held such a meeting in June 2013. They regularly see each other in group settings, such as meetings to discuss the government's monthly economic reports.
The first of the BOJ's two policy board meetings this month ended Tuesday. The people familiar with the matter said Mr. Abe expressed his intention to see Mr. Kuroda by the time the BOJ holds its next policy-board meeting, scheduled for April 30.
Based on local media accounts of Mr. Abe's daily schedule, the two haven't met in recent days. They could also meet privately without an announcement. A representative of Mr. Kuroda declined to comment. A spokeswoman for the prime minister's office said she wasn't aware of any planned meeting.
Pressure on the BOJ has increased this week after comments by Mr. Kuroda rejecting imminent easing steps helped send Tokyo stock markets tumbling. The yen's value has also rebounded, making Japanese exports less price competitive.
"If there is any unexpected economic pullback, monetary policy will be the one to play the leading role," Etsuro Honda, a close economic adviser to Mr. Abe, said in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Any direct talks between Messrs. Abe and Kuroda could fuel the guessing game over whether and when the central bank will expand easing steps. A majority of economists say the bank will act this year, most likely in the summer. The BOJ has pledged to generate 2% inflation by spring 2015.
Mr. Abe himself has been one of the leading voices favoring a reflationary policy that relies heavily on the BOJ flooding banks with cash. A group of economists led by Nobuyuki Nakahara, a former Bank of Japan policy board member, visited Mr. Abe's office earlier this month, spending more than 90 minutes with him. Mr. Nakahara is among those urging aggressive BOJ action.
Weekly Market Update: The April Correction
- Thursday and Friday had an air of resignation as market participants watched global equity indices melt and bond yields contract. Many media outlets said there was no real catalyst for the sell-off, however a quick review of some of the more bearish developments over recent days paints an ugly picture for risk assets: no extra easing from the BoJ; no stimulus from Beijing; ECB easing not a sure bet and likely a long way off; FOMC members reeling in fed fund futures expectations; fifty thousand Russian troops camped out on Ukraine's eastern border as armed pro-Russian instigators barricade themselves in government buildings; a second consecutive month of disappointing Chinese trade data; brutal contractions in mortgage issuance at JPMorgan and Wells Fargo; sky-high P/E ratios among momentum stocks. Result: all three major US indices are below their 50-day moving averages, and the Nikkei225 index is down 7.3% on the week. Europe did not suffer as much, although equities were weak on Friday. For the week, the DJIA fell 2.3%, the S&P500 dropped 2.6% and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.1%.
- The Fed minutes displayed an FOMC that was struggling to build consensus and craft a message that would keep the markets from getting ahead of themselves even while inevitable rate hikes creep closer. Several members were concerned that the market might misconstrue the upward drift in the dot chart (which charts where FOMC members sees the fed funds rate over the next three years), given several members moved their dots up a notch despite soft recent data. Several participants noted that the shift in the position of the median dot overstated the extent of the shift in the FOMC's view. More dovish sentiment was found in the line that the FOMC anticipates keeping the target rate below levels viewed as normal in the longer run, even after employment and inflation get close to the mandated levels.
- The Nasdaq led the charge higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then led the slide lower in the second half of the week, slipping below the psychologically important 4000 level on Friday afternoon. The usual suspects were complicit in the Nasdaq's big slide on Thursday and Friday: NFLX, TSLA, AMZN and FB fell 6-8% a piece, while BIIB was down 8%, emblematic of the biotech implosion. Twitter shares sank 10% on the week.
- Alcoa unofficially kicked off the US earnings season with a mixed first-quarter result. Alcoa topped earnings expectations but missed on the revenue line. Alcoa reaffirmed that global aluminum demand growth would be flat y/y at +7%, although it also hiked its demand growth forecasts for the aerospace and auto industries, and more generally asserted that global end-market growth remained solid.
- The first quarter headline results out of banks JPMorgan and Wells Fargo contrasted sharply. JPMorgan's earnings fell 28% y/y and the firm missed estimates for the first time in over two years (it was only its fifth miss in the last ten years). Wells Fargo beat earnings expectations in its first quarter, on a healthy y/y gain in net profit. However both firms saw big weakness in mortgage originations: JPM's issuance slid nearly 70% y/y while WFC's new home loans were down nearly two-thirds y/y during the quarter. JPM said that mortgage production would be negative in Q2 - driving a loss for the business unit - and also negative for the year.
- The IPO market was a major theme, as up to 16 companies were planning to begin trading this week making it the busiest week for IPOs since before the financial crisis. The equity correction dented enthusiasm for the new issues, and about half of the planned IPOs were put on hold due to volatility. The two biggest IPOs that did go forward - Ally Financial and hotel chain La Quinta Holdings - priced shares cautiously, below the top end of projections initially given to investors. La Quinta gained as much as 7% on Wednesday, but was only about 2% above its opening price by Friday, while Ally was about 2% below its opening price. The best performing opening was fast casual restaurant chain Zoe's Kitchen.
- Online commerce giant eBay reached a deal with Carl Icahn to end his proxy battle. In exchange for appointing Icahn's man to the board (he originally wanted two), Icahn has agreed to withdraw his PayPal spinoff proposal and will sign a confidentiality agreement, ensuring that further conversations about enhancing shareholder value stay private. eBay's CEO observed that the proxy battle was not helping shareholders or innovation, while Icahn called the deal a "win-win."
- March same-store sales were mostly in the red, as continuing bad weather kept consumers at home, although the declines were generally not as bad as projected by consensus expectations. As usual, the big outlier was Costco, where a healthy +6% comp beat expectations. In retail earnings, discount retailer Family Dollar missed top- and bottom-line expectations, cut its FY14 outlook and warned it would lower prices on a wide range of items.
- WTI crude futures saw strong gains this week, rising to $104.44 from around $101 on Monday, coming within a few cents of a fresh multi-year high. Several factors were at work. Ukraine tensions have ratcheted up since armed pro-Russia protestors seized administrative buildings in several eastern cities. In its March monthly report, OPEC disclosed that output declined 626K bpd on the month to 29.61M bpd. The weaker dollar also helped strengthen the contract. Brent was stable around $107 most of the week after Libya finally reached a deal with protesters to reopen occupied oil terminals. Note that the Brent-WTI spread is at its lowest level since last September.
- Greece sold its first bonds this week since March 2010, just weeks before the markets lost confidence in Athens and forced its first bail-out. This week Greece raised €3 billion in five-year bonds at a yield of just under 5% in a heavily oversubscribed issue. The yield on the Greek ten-year fell below 6%, although many pointed out that is still much too high to be affordable for a country forecast by the IMF to grow by only 0.6% in 2014 and experiencing deflation. While the Greek leadership insists there will be no need for a third rescue package, on Friday Eurogroup Chief Dijsselbloem said Athens might require a bailout program after the summer was over.
- Eurozone officials were very loquacious this week on the subject of possible non-standard measures to deal with slowing deflation. The overall tone from the ECB was that the governing council is not ready to initiate QE, although contingency plans are being made. Weidmann emphasized that extraordinary measures would be have many conditions and should target banking sector. ECB Vice President Constancio echoed his boss Draghi by again saying that April data might show inflation returning to growth, obviating the need for measures. ECB's Nowotny suggested that a decision on QE should not be taken until the June meeting. IMF Chief Lagarde said it would only be a matter of time before the ECB launched a program. EUR/USD was a one-way trade all week, as the pair held support around 1.3700 early on and then traded up to 1.3900.
- The BoJ policy statement on Tuesday dashed any hopes for a fresh round of QE later this month to help offset the rise in consumption tax that went into effect on April 1st. The BoJ maintained its economic assessment for the eighth time in a row, stating that the "economy is recovering moderately" and only made a passing reference to "fluctuations" related to the sales tax. Kuroda's press conference sealed the bank's passive stance, indicating the BoJ does not believe additional easing is warranted at this time and that conditions remain sufficient to achieve the 2% inflation target in the specified 2-year time frame. Already weighed down by falling US treasury yields and general risk-off sentiment, USD/JPY hit three-week lows below ¥101.50. In turn, Nikkei225 collapsed approximately 7.3% this week to its 6-month lows below 14,000. Year-to-date, the Tokyo market is down about 15%.
- China reported its second consecutive disappointing trade balance, only this time around the government was unable to blame seasonality around the Lunar New Year. Although March trade recovered from the deficit seen in February with a surplus of $7.7B, both imports and exports fell, spoiling expectations of a modest y/y increase. The authorities acknowledged softer conditions in Q1 but also remained optimistic that exports would rebound in Q2. Separately, March CPI came in line with consensus at 2.4%, reversing a trend of five consecutive months of slower price growth and allaying investors' concerns about the threat of deflation following the 13-month low of 2.0% in February. China premier Li addressed the Boao Forum on Thursday, reiterating the state council would sacrifice its 7.5% GDP target to achieve stable employment. Li also announced that Beijing would not undertake significant stimulus measures to deal with short-term market volatility.
Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Down Week on Defensive Note
The stock market finished the week on a broadly lower note with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 enduring their worst week since 2012. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%, ending the week with a loss of 3.1%. For its part, the S&P 500 settled lower by 1.0% to end the week down 2.7%.
Equity indices faced selling activity at the open after the overnight session failed to deliver any noteworthy respite following yesterday's drubbing. The lack of a concerted rebound effort today likely fed into concerns that the stock market is in the midst of a larger degree price correction than what participants have grown accustomed to seeing the past few years.
Despite starting in the red, the major averages spent the initial 90 minutes of action in a dash towards their flat lines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were able to make a brief appearance in the green with help from biotechnology, while the Dow spent the entire day in the red.
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 215.45, -6.44) appeared to have found support at its 200-day moving average in the morning, but the modest morning rebound was met with daylong selling that drove the ETF to a fresh session low. The ETF lost 2.9%, while the health care sector fell 1.1%.
Biotech notwithstanding, other momentum names that comprise a portion of the consumer discretionary sector (-1.4%) and a good part of the technology space (-1.2%) were weak once again. Amazon.com (AMZN 311.73, -5.38), Google (GOOG 530.60, -10.35), Netflix (NFLX 326.71, -8.02), and LinkedIn (LNKD 165.78, -4.21) lost between 1.7% and 2.5%, to name a few.
Even though the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made short-lived appearances in the green, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.9%) was unable to do so as JPMorgan Chase (JPM 55.30, -2.10) and top-weighted component, Visa (V 196.63, -4.92), weighed. Visa sank 2.4% while JPMorgan Chase plunged 3.7% after missing earnings estimates on below-consensus revenue. The financial sector (-1.2%), meanwhile, ended among the laggards. The sector was kept from logging additional losses due to a 0.8% gain in Wells Fargo (WFC 48.08, +0.37), which reported above-consensus earnings.
On a separate note, shares of Herbalife (HLF 51.48, -8.36) took a dive in the final hour of action, falling 14.0% after The Financial Times reported that a criminal probe has been launched into the company's business practices.
On the fixed income side, Treasuries were little changed overnight, but began climbing during the early morning hours. The 10-yr note added eight ticks, pressuring its yield to 2.62%.
Participation was a bit above average as nearly 800 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.
Reviewing today's data:
* Producer prices jumped 0.5% in March, the largest monthly increase since June, after falling 0.1% in February. The consensus expected the PPI to increase 0.1%. We would not categorize the forecasting miss as a big surprise. The consensus is having difficulty forecasting the PPI following the methodology change. Under the previous PPI methodology, price growth for finished goods was down 0.1%. That was in line with expectations. The entire increase in producer prices was the result of a bounce in prices for final demand for services. After declining 0.3% in February, these prices increased 0.7%, which was the largest monthly gain since January 2010.
* The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 82.6 in the preliminary reading for April from 80.0 in March. That was the strongest sentiment reading since July 2013. The consensus expected the index to increase to 81.0. Consumer sentiment typically follows changes in the equity markets, unemployment, and gasoline prices. The surveys were filled out prior to the recent weakness in the stock market, so equity prices enhanced sentiment in the preliminary reading. If the market does not rebound, we would expect the final reading to be notably lower. The Expectations Index increased to 97.1 in the preliminary reading for April from 70.0 in March. The Present Conditions Index increased to 97.1 from 95.7.