*DEUTSCHE BANK, 14 OTHER BANKS OUTLOOKS TO NEGATIVE BY S&P

*BARCLAYS BANK PLC OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE BY S&P
*UBS AG OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE BY S&P
*BANK OF IRELAND OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE BY S&P
*DEUTSCHE BANK, CREDIT SUISSE OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE BY S&P
*BANCA POPOLARE DELL’EMILIA OUTLOOK TO NEG FROM STABLE BY S&P
*ING GROEP N.V. OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE BY S&P
*SWEDBANK SJUHARAD RAISED TO A FROM BBB+ BY S&P, OUTLOOK STABLE
*CECABANK S.A. OUTLOOK TO POSITIVE FROM STABLE BY S&P

FT : Pfizer cautions UK ministers not to block £60bn AstraZeneca bid

Pfizer cautions UK ministers not to block £60bn AstraZeneca bid

Pfizer has thrown down a ­gauntlet to the British government by warning that it would be a mistake for ministers to block its £60bn takeover bid for AstraZeneca, as the US drugmaker steps up its pursuit of its UK rival.
“The UK faces a choice,” Ian Read, chairman and chief executive of Pfizer, told the Financial Times. “Do they focus on ensuring there is an educated workforce with the right incentives in place to attract investment or do they pick winners and losers.”

Mr Read praised the UK government for creating an attractive business environment that made Pfizer want to invest in the UK and urged ministers to keep faith in the free market to promote the country’s life sciences industry.
The Pfizer chief executive flew into London on Tuesday with his top management for talks with government ministers and AstraZeneca investors to convince them to support the biggest ever foreign takeover of a UK company.
However, the deal has prompted fears over jobs and the UK’s science base among some politicians. The company employs 7,000 people in the UK and supports thousands more jobs – many of them high-value – in an industry that the government sees as playing a key role in supporting balanced long-term economic growth.
George Osborne, chancellor, welcomed Pfizer’s proposed takeover as a big vote of confidence in Britain and its low corporate tax regime, but warned Mr Read last night that the takeover would come under intense scrutiny.
Vince Cable, business secretary, is said to be especially sceptical about claims that the bid is motivated by a desire to bolster Britain’s R&D base after Pfizer cut more than 1,500 jobs at its Sandwich facility in 2011. Both Mr Osborne and Mr Cable are insisting the deal must preserve jobs and research in the UK.
“I want to see more British science,” Mr Osborne said. “AstraZeneca have been doing a lot of that great science. Pfizer said very encouraging things about the UK as a place to do business and a place to do good science.”
Ministers have limited legal powers to block a merger, but have a number of “soft options” available if a Pfizer were to embark on an asset stripping exercise: the government provides extensive support for the sector through the tax system and direct taxpayer funding.
Mr Read refused to issue any commitments over UK jobs and investment during his round of meetings in London, arguing it was impossible to do so unless AstraZeneca agreed to sit down to discuss how a deal could work.
But he insisted the merged company would maintain a “significant” management and scientific presence in the UK as well as shifting its tax domicile to the country to escape the 38 per cent US tax rate on repatriated overseas profits.
Mr Read denied that significant tax savings were the primary motivation for the deal, pointing instead to the potential to create a “US-UK powerhouse” in medical science. But he acknowledged the importance of the “patent box” tax break on income from intellectual property, introduced by Mr Osborne, in encouraging Pfizer to make its move.
“The UK has created an environment you need to win in life sciences,” he said. “If you want to play in the long term you need to let these kind of deals go through.”
After days of rumours, Pfizer confirmed on Monday that it had approached AstraZeneca in January with an informal £46.61 per share offer, valuing the company at just under £59bn.
On Tuesday the stock fell slightly to £46.26 as AstraZeneca reiterated its stance that the January offer “significant undervalued” the company and that no talks would take place in the absence of a much improved bid. Pfizer has until May 26 to make a firm offer or walk away under “put up or shut up” takeover rules.
People close to AstraZeneca insisted that, while it would keep strategic options open, there would be no rush to explore alternative deals mooted by analysts – such as a merger of equals with another drugmaker.
“We’re keeping cool heads. Absent a significantly improved offer there is nothing to discuss. This is a company that feels very good about its strategy and does not see the need for a partner.”

NY Post : Loeb, Sotheby’s case may reshape shareholder activism

Loeb, Sotheby’s case may reshape shareholder activism

Sotheby’s and its largest investor, Daniel Loeb, will open their arguments in court on Tuesday on whether the auction house should be allowed to restrict the billionaire’s ownership stake, in a case that could reshape the world of shareholder activism.
Loeb, the head of hedge fund Third Point Capital Management who has been building a stake in Sotheby’s as he battles to win three seats on the company’s board, last month sued the 270-year-old auction house to remove its “poison pill” cap, arguing that it discriminates against activists.
Delaware Chancery Court Vice Chancellor Donald Parsons will hear arguments from both sides on whether Sotheby’s shareholder rights plan, which allows passive investors to buy as much as 20 percent in the company but caps active investors at 10 percent, is legal. A ruling is expected later in the week, ahead of Sotheby’s annual meeting scheduled for May 6.
The case could have wide implications for activist investing and corporate governance because it marks the first time that a judge will rule after an activist investor who has faced a poison pill has aired his grievances in court.
“The reason this is so important is that the idea that a pill can be used to stop an activist investor has never been approved,” said Robert Jackson, a law professor at Columbia University. “Whichever way the court rules will have lasting implications for the corporate landscape.”
Poison pills were originally designed to help companies defend against corporate raiders — the term given to investors seeking to take over a company with aggressive stock purchases — by limiting the amount of stock that can be bought.
But they have increasingly been used against activist shareholders, who seek changes to the way companies are managed, instead of vying for full control.
Air Products used a poison pill to keep William Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management from buying more than 10 percent in 2013, and Riverbed Technology used one against Elliott Management the same year.
The use of poison pills against activists seems to be picking up just as activists are becoming more popular in the hedge fund industry, attracting fresh money with strong returns.
This poison pill “is directed intentionally against shareholders exercising their rights,” said Marc Weingarten, a partner at law firm Schulte Roth & Zabel.
In the first three months of 2014, activist funds took in $3.5 billion in new assets, more than half of the $5.3 billion they took in for all of 2013, data from Hedge Fund Research show. Last year activist funds returned an average 16 percent, far more than the average hedge fund’s 9 percent gain.
Loeb’s $14.5 billion hedge fund Third Point gained 25.2 percent in 2013. That is the same year that he bought a 9.6 percent stake in Sotheby’s, as he compared it to “an old master painting in desperate need of restoration” and urged cost cuts, among other measures.
Lawyers who have been watching the case said there is no way to predict the outcome, in part because the courts have generally supported companies that use poison pills.
“In this case the company has good arguments on why it needs to have the pill in place and that restricting the ownership of passive investors could harm all investors,” said Keith Gottfried, a partner at law firm Alston & Bird who advises companies on shareholder activism. “Poison pills don’t prevent you from running a proxy contest.”

(Makor) Court Rejects Appeal of Club Méditerranée Buyout

ANY WEAKNESS SHOULD BE USED TO GET IN. THIS IS THE MESSAGE. THIS SCENARIO WAS THE MOST LIKELY ONE WE EXPECTED. NOW, THIS OFFER WILL FAIL. THE BUYERS MAY PLAY FOR TIME AND SEE IF THE STOCKS DROP OR NOT BELOW THE OFFER. I THINK NOT. AFTER THAT, A NEW OFFER MAY OR MAY NOT COME - EITHER WAY, CLUB MED HAS A LOT OF CATCH UP TO DO WITH THE SECTOR.

>>> Buy Remy Cointreau / Sell LVMH - set up on 17th - +8% - take profit

Pair is performing well 8% since inception, I will take half of profit here.
I still believe taht there is some upside potential but I will rather add some more if spread is coming back.

Take profit on half of it

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 28 2014 09:52:43

Pair is starting to perform +3.69%, still believe there is more potential on this one, started to see some flows out of LVMH after seeing few investors jumping in onthe last few weeks playing the fact that MC will be one of the best peformers in eartning Season, but Reassuring numbers form Kering pushed some re-allocation in the sector.


----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 22 2014 16:04:37

Follow-Up

Still believe in this trade, RCO weak on -ve article in FT, stock is down on the day, LVMH better.

I will wait to add some more

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 17 2014 10:57:05

{RCO FP Equity MC FP Equity GRT D}

* Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) - Buy
- Q4 Sales a 3% miss, Cognac still weak, we could see some more dwg to consensus EPS, but pfr story is not there anymore.
- Valuation still not cheap regarding the Cognac business but not too far from historical premium the stock is trading with the sector
- RCO is highly correlated to Luxury trend in China and most of dwg has been done
- Few weeks ago M&A rumors re-surface with a blog mentionning Brown& Forman was looking to the company, this blog was mentioning a €85/share minimum price on any deal to get the family to table.
- 55/56 appears to be a strong support.

* LVMH (MC FP) - Sell
- Numbers were published on the 9th of April, the analysis fo numbers show us that we continue to see a down trend in volume that has been so far compensated by price increase, main point of the strategy remained of potential of price increase and maintain margin.
- Stock is trading not far from historical highs (3.5%) and even if we can test this level I don't expect a major break up


Buy Remy Cointreau Sell LVMH - expecting MC to not really move and RCO to go back to the 70's levels

Laurent

WSJ : The Cult of Paris's Caviar Kaspia Restaurant

The Cult of Paris's Caviar Kaspia Restaurant
This intimate spot in Paris's eighth arrondissement has made the humble baked potato–albeit topped with spoonfuls of caviar–the favorite fuel of the fashionable set, including Beyoncé and Valentino Garavani—for nearly 90 years

THERE'S A SCENE in Anna Karenina in which Oblonsky, Anna's brother and irrepressible man about town, bounds into his favorite Moscow restaurant accompanied by his compatriot, the more earthbound Levin, who is fresh from his country estate. Levin is in awe of the "restrained radiance" that immediately takes over his friend's entire being; he watches Oblonsky direct "the Tartar waiters," greet acquaintances "joyously" and help himself to "a preliminary appetizer of fish and vodka." When he finally takes a seat amid the "fuss and bustle, the surroundings of bronzes, mirrors, gaslights," he orders a bottle of champagne. Tolstoy may have published his novel's first installment in 1875, but that particular scene—or one awfully close to it—is still reenacted countless times a day (and night), six days a week at Caviar Kaspia, the quixotically chic restaurant in Paris's eighth arrondissement on the Place de la Madeleine.

First opened in 1927 by Russian émigré Arcady Fixon and situated in its current spot since 1953, the restaurant retains the prerevolutionary sensibilities—and impressive artifacts—of its founder. Carafes of house vodka are iced down in silver buckets at the tables next to quaint bowls of pickles, while the crystal implement Tsar Nicholas II used to seal his correspondence is displayed in a glass case alongside impressive 19th-century Russian silver and porcelain. Waiters—flawless, though not, perhaps, Tartars—wordlessly replace even slightly warm flutes of champagne and in one deft motion spoon and smear clarified butter from Limoges pots onto blini.

By the time the meal comes to a close with tiny fraises des bois and de rigueur glasses of cherry- flavored vodka, it's hard not to imagine Oblonksy waving for the bill across the room. But Caviar Kaspia's old-world elegance attracts a decidedly more contemporary clientele: Jay Z and Beyoncé (who ducked in for dinner à deux during a tour stop); style icons and young swans including Ines de la Fressange, Carine Roitfield, Sofia Coppola and Charlotte Gainsbourg ; and designers Tom Ford, Diane von Furstenberg, Alexander Wang, Olivier Rousteing, Haider Ackermann and Giambattista Valli, who created a commemorative Kaspia caviar tin ringed with an illustration of his signature pearls.

Those bold-faced names combine with local literati, the occasional politician, gallerists and late-night theater- and operagoers to create one of Paris's most perpetually interesting mixes in an intimate wood-paneled space that often feels more like a private club than a restaurant. "You have the best of the Paris beau monde," says longtime regular and American Vogue veteran André Leon Talley. He compares Kaspia to Manhattan's legendary haunt Elaine's in its '60s and '70s heyday, "when it was the hangout of the great intellectuals and writers" and exuberant table-hopping was the norm. The late designer Yves Saint Laurent, lover of all things Russian, was a dinner regular; his muse Betty Catroux still drops in. Tods CEO Diego Della Valle is known for his intimate dinners there, as is the designer Valentino Garavani, who most recently hosted a table in February following his namesake brand's fashion show. Carlos Souza, Garavani's longtime publicist and close friend, calls it the "Paris fashion cantina," while others refer to it as the Kaviar Kafeteria. Even on the quietest of nights, there is that sense of inherent camaraderie that comes from knowing you are in the right place.

"Because it is on the second floor, you cannot see inside from the street, and you have to go through the ground-floor shop, so it seems like a secret," says Kaspia CEO Ramon Mac-Crohon, a Madrid-born marketing expert who has run the company since 2011. There's also the luxuriously straightforward menu (seven choices of caviar, smoked fish and foie gras, a handful of salads and soups). "It's high-end gastronomy without being stuffy or stuck-up," he adds. Last orders are taken at the accommodating hour of 1 a.m., while behind the enfilade of three small dining rooms is a fourth space where the chicly attired guests can smoke without having to trek downstairs and stand on the street. (An oft-pinched Kaspia memento was the restaurant's signature turquoise ashtray in the shape of a minaret, which Mac-Crohon has recently reissued.)

The menu of choice, all agree, is the crab salad (king crab and crayfish simply dressed in a balsamic vinaigrette on a bed of lettuce) followed by a twice-baked potato topped with caviar, accompanied by crème fraîche and a mother-of-pearl spoon. The fashion-world regulars "think they are eating healthily and mindfully," Talley says, but they also like to see and be seen. "All the big editors love going to find out who is at whose table, what design house is going to pick up the tab." To be sure, the tabs can be considerable—if the baked potato is crowned with beluga, for example, it will set you back 335 euros, or about $460—but relative bargains can also be had. The "Vladivostock potato," topped with salmon roe, goes for a comparatively modest 29 euros, while a plate of smoked Scottish salmon is the same price.

No matter what's on the plate, the restaurant itself serves as a rite of passage—an initiation into the cosseted world of modern-day Oblonskys. When screenwriter and Louisiana native Robert Harling had his first success with 1989's Steel Magnolias, "I was still just a country bumpkin," he says. After the movie's release, he attended the Royal Premier in London with Prince Charles and Princess Diana, opened the Berlin International Film Festival and, on a last stop in Paris, was taken to Caviar Kaspia by the film's director, Herbert Ross, and his then-wife, Lee Radziwill. "I'd never seen anything like it—dinner there was the perfect closure." My own first outing took place in 1992 at a lunch with Talley and John Galliano, just after the latter's game-changing fashion show. When I asked another friend, who was then a Paris-based editor, where the two of us should take fashion's newest star, she didn't miss a beat: "There is only Caviar Kaspia."

More than two decades on from that memorable lunch (borscht and lots of caviar), little has changed. Stelio Conforti, the Italian manager who has been at Kaspia for the last 30 years, still greets regulars by name—and will remember where even the most decidedly non-bold-faced diner last sat. Mac-Crohon, who early in his tenure established Kaspia brands of vodka (Polish), champagne (by Duval-Leroy) and white wine (a Sancerre from Joseph Mellot), also made additions to the menu, including king crab from the Bering Sea and velvety jamón bellota from his native Spain. But he has been almost fanatically careful in his updates to a space that another frequent diner compares to "your grandparents' living room." A subtle brown stripe was added to the black-and-gold banquettes to better complement the boiserie panels, for example; a new mosaic (mimicking the caviar tins) along the stair hall looked so at home that most customers assumed it had been lurking behind mirrored panels all along. "I won't be calling Philippe Starck," he says, adding that Kaspia "is not a trendy place. By nature, those go out of fashion. I just want to retain the cozy and intemporal feel."

If the atmosphere has remained constant over the decades, it is Kaspia's star menu item that has undergone the most dramatic change. When Fixon and the Petrossian brothers arrived in Paris to introduce caviar to the Occidental world during les Années Folles (as the French termed the 1920s), sturgeon were almost ridiculously plentiful. But after the fall of the Soviet Union, poaching and overfishing in the Caspian Sea cut a large chunk of the supply. Since 1997, the U.N. and other organizations have orchestrated a series of bans on caviar's export; as recently as December, Russia and the other countries bordering the Caspian Sea again agreed to stop fishing sturgeon for up to five years. The years of uncertainty, scarcity and wildly varying quality led to the formation of a sophisticated aquaculture industry and now, like other high-end purveyors, Caviar Kaspia's offerings are exclusively farm-raised. The finest roes remain beluga, osetra and sevruga, from the three species of sturgeon most prized in the wild. But as farming has gotten more sophisticated, other high-quality varieties have been introduced. The two that have made the cut on the Kaspia menu are Imperial Baeri, which is farmed in France and Bulgaria and has a grain somewhere between an osetra and sevruga, and white sturgeon, which is farmed in Italy and comes from a species called the Acipenser transmontanus.

Instead of being a setback to the restaurant, the industry crisis has actually had positive effects. Not only are some of the new varieties more affordable, there is also better quality control. "Caviar Master" Valerie Maia, the on-staff procurer for Caviar Kaspia since 1998, says, "With farm-raised caviar, we have the opportunity to select our own tins, as opposed to wild caviar, which used to arrive in a big batch." These days, Maia is much like a sommelier, going from farmer to farmer checking for the color and shine of the grain, the firmness and, of course, the taste.

Mac-Crohon may be vigilant about the Kaspia history and reputation, but he is keen to expand the brand in the United States and beyond. The restaurant is now owned by a holding company with a board of directors that still includes a Fixon family member, but the Kaspia Group also now owns La Maison de la Truffe, centered on truffles (there are currently two in Paris, including one on the Place de la Madeleine, but there are plans to expand those as well), along with a high-end bistro called Kwint in Belgium, and even an upscale eatery at Paris's Charles de Gaulle Airport. In 2012, a sort of pop-up version of Caviar Kaspia opened for a year in the lobby of Miami high-fashion boutique The Webster. These days Mac-Crohon has his sights on Manhattan's Upper East Side, perhaps opening an outpost by the beginning of 2015.

While some Manhattan regulars at the Place de la Madeleine will welcome a more convenient outpost, it might prove impossible to replicate the combination of French chic and Tsarist-era Russian luxe that imbues a sense of insulation and, occasionally, abandon in its clientele. Sometimes the table-hopping and impromptu carryings-on among certain patrons get so crazy that it becomes like "dinner theater," says Mac-Crohon. But it's an unwritten rule that no one dare document the show. Though there is a photograph of Betty Catroux rather impressively doing a split on the carpeted floor with Tom Ford at her side, evidence of such shenanigans is rare. It's like Vegas, says Mac-Crohon. "What happens in Caviar Kaspia stays in Caviar Kaspia."

WSJ : U.S., U.K. Spearhead Effort to Help Ukraine Recover Stolen Assets

U.S., U.K. Spearhead Effort to Help Ukraine Recover Stolen Assets
Tens of Billions of Dollars of Assets Were Allegedly Stolen During Regime of Former President

LONDON—The U.S. and U.K. pledged on Tuesday to help Ukraine recover billions of dollars of assets allegedly stolen during former President Victor Yanukovych's administration but acknowledged the painstaking work could take years.

The investigation into misappropriated assets represents part of a wider effort by the U.S. and European Union to support the new Ukrainian government following Russia's military intervention in the country. Britain and the U.S. have sent officials to Kiev since Mr. Yanukovych fled Ukraine in February to assist the country's new government with asset recovery.

Ukrainian prosecutors have accused Mr. Yanukovych and his cohorts of stealing billions of dollars from the country and stashing the assets abroad. Mr. Yanukovych has repeatedly denied any corruption or ill-gotten gains.

The U.K. government is hosting a two-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, dubbed the Ukraine Forum on Asset Recovery, to discuss how to coordinate international work to recover the allegedly stolen assets. The forum is bringing together government officials, legal experts, prosecutors, financial intelligence analysts and regulators from about 35 countries.

The British Home Office wasn't immediately able to confirm whether Russian authorities had been asked to assist in the effort.

At a joint news conference in London with Ukraine's acting prosecutor general, Oleh Makhnitskyi, British Home Secretary Theresa May and U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said they were determined to recover what had been stolen.

"This is not something that is going to be easy but it is not necessarily impossible," Mr. Holder said. "The great American boxer Joe Louis once said 'You can run but you can't hide,' and I think that is the attitude that we take here."

Mr. Makhnitskyi said the investigation would focus on the recent years under Mr. Yanukovych when he said a Mafioso style scheme had been established with corruption at various levels of government and official institutions.

Initial intelligence indicated the stolen assets totaled "tens of billions of dollars", he said. Ukrainian society was already demanding results on this front from the new government, he said.

Mrs. May declined to put a figure on the stolen Ukrainian assets, but Mr. Holder said it was safe to say, "we are talking about billions of American dollars."

"That shows the magnitude of the problem…and if one thinks about the issues that Ukraine is facing, the repatriation of those amounts of money can go a long way to dealing with the issues that are presently confronting the Ukrainian people," Mr. Holder said.

>>> Afren - Bought on 16th of Apr. - reaching target 154.3/155 important level

AFR has a decent rebound today, after few days correction, the stock is breaking important levels, important resistance on 154.30/155 levels that was my target.
I will take part of profit above 154.50 but still think there is more potential, if 155 broken on close, target is 163.


----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 28 2014 10:45:43

AFR tested its 200d MA Last week and traded lower since that, PMO News over the Week end & Tullow article in teh Barron's are positive catalyst for the sector, Stock is testing some support , I will take profit around the 154.5 levels, if 156.75 broken next levels will be 164.

AFR is still more than 4% higher since we initiate the trade.


----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 23 2014 13:49:29

AFR +6.8% since recommendation on the 16th, still think there is more potential even if target reached, 155 next target

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 16 2014 16:46:46

* Afren enjoyed a successful year in 2013, ramping up Ebok and capping the year off with the Ogo discovery
* Kurdistan has been an early investment for Afren, and this asset could be sold and unlock value for shareholder, if no deal the stock should trade at least in line with the market
* Stock is trading with a decent discount to NPV
* 135 levels is a strong support and stock should hold these levels
* Stosk has been weak on the last few weeks and start to stabilize
* 2 brokers issued +ve recommendaation on the last 2 days (BMO & Investec)
* I see limited downside (132 level - 5% from here ) and see the stoc testing back the 145 & 149 levels.

as rumors were around on TLW stating Sinopec & Statoil could be interested, any news in the sector will push the stock higher.


--> Buy Afren