Asian Market Update: Equities slump as China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI unexpectedly contracts
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA JAN HSBC/MARKIT FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.6 V 50.3E (1st contraction in 6 months) - (CN) CHINA DEC CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX: 0.4% (9-month low) V 1.3% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATION: 2.3% (5-month high) V 2.1% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 135.8 V 129.4 PRIOR; M/M: 4.9% V 0.8% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC BUSINESS PMI: 56.4 V 57.0 PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS: -0.7% V -2.5% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q4 PRELIM GDP Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 3.9% V 3.9%E; 2013 GDP: 2.8% v 2.0% in 2012 - (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC DEPT STORE SALES Y/Y: -0.3% V 5.3% PRIOR; DISCOUNT STORE SALES Y/Y: -5.7% V 1.0% PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE DEC CPI M/M: -0.3% (first decline since Apr) V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 2.0%E - (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥226.0B in foreign bonds last week vs sold net ¥740.6B in prior week; Foreign Investors bought net ¥71.2B in Japan stocks v sold net ¥219.1B in prior week
***Observations/Insights*** - Netflix surges nearly 20% to new 52-week highs on strong Q4 results; Western Digital underperforms on soft guidance. - China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI contracts for the first time in 6 months, sending regional stock and US equity futures lower; New orders component also falls into contraction, while new export orders - gauge of overseas demand - accelerated the pace of decline. HSBC chief economist noted the data reflect "cooling domestic demand conditions" implying "softening growth momentum." - PBoC injects another CNY120B through open market operations following a CNY255B injection on Tuesday. Money market rates were steady despite the multi-month high injection of fresh liquidity into the system going into the Lunar New Year holidays. - Australia's Newcrest, Whitehaven, and Santos are all down over 1% after quarterly production metrics, tracking weaker sentiment in Sydney.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥1.09T in 1.6% (1.6% prior) 20-year JGBs; Avg yield: 1.538% v 1.586% prior; bid-to-cover: 5.32x v 4.49x prior - (CN) PBoC to conduct CNY120B in 21-day reverse repos (2nd consecutive injection); Injects net CNY375B (multi-month high) this week v zero prior - (CN) China Qinhuangdao coal price falls to CNY585-595/t (3rd consecutive decline) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.2 tonnes to 795.9 tonnes - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +4.86M (first build in 4 weeks) v +1Me; GASOLINE: +1.1M v +1.5Me; DISTILLATE: -2.29M v -1Me - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1107 v 6.1087 prior setting (Weakest setting since Jan 9th) - USD/JPY: (JP) Nikkei feature anticipates slowing in the pace of depreciation of JPY as latest BOJ comments give little hint of further easing
- Disappointing HSBC manufacturing PMI from China has sent AUD back below the $0.88 handle, down about 50pips, as AUD/USD erased all of its gains overnight following hotter than expected inflation figures. NZD/USD also hit its session lows on the PMI data, falling 50pips from the highs to $0.8260. Japanese Yen, which had actually traded softer in the morning session, strengthened on risk-off flows - USD/JPY fell below 104.30, EUR/JPY below 141.30, and AUD/JPY all the way down to 91.70. EUR/USD was little changed, trading flat around the $1.3550 levels. USD/CAD continued to strengthen in the wake of dovish BOC comments, reaching C$1.1150 - highest level since June 2009. SGD also fell after a surprising drop in Singapore sequential CPI, as USD/SGD hit a 5-month high.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China big four banks new loans CNY440B in Jan 1st-20th v CNY300B y/y - financial press - (AU) ANZ warns Australian Securities and Investments Commission about risks in the property sector - SMH - (KR) South Korea Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transports: 2013 air cargo traffic rose 0.7% to 3.5M tons; first increase since 2010 - Korean press - (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): South Korea bankruptcies in Dec fell to 68 from 84 in Nov; 6-month low - Korean press - (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) official: Private sector led economic growth in Q4 - (KR) IMF: Sees KRW "Moderately undervalued"; Korean authorities need to boost transparency in currency intervention - (NZ) New Zealand PM Key: Economy to post budget surplus next year - (NZ) BNZ economist: New Zealand dairy industry revenue to be a lot higher in 2014 vs 2013 - NZ press - (EU) ECB Pres Draghi: Domestic demand will gradually boost growth in the EMU; Reiterates no deflation concerns as inflation expectations remain well anchored - Swiss press
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.3%, S&P/ASX -1.1%, Kospi -1.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Hang Seng -1.4%, Mar S&P500 -0.4% at 1,831, Feb gold -0.3% at $1,234, Mar crude oil -0.2% at $96.50/brl
US markets: - NFLX: Reports Q4 $0.79 v $0.66e, R$1.18B v $1.17Be; +18.0% afterhours - FFIV: Reports Q1 $1.22 v $1.19e, R$406.5M v $396Me; approves $500M buyback program (6.6% of market cap); +9.9% afterhours - ARIA: Three international groups said to have made "friendly approaches" for the company - UK press; +9.1% afterhours - PLCM: Reports Q4 $0.16 v $0.15e, R$347.9M v $341Me; +5.8% afterhours - EBAY: Reports Q4 $0.81 v $0.80e, R$4.53B v $4.56Be; Announces $5B share repurchase (7% of market cap); Icahn submits proposal for spinoff of Paypal, nominates two directors to the Board; Icahn has acquired a 0.82% stake; Company has explored a PayPal spinoff; +5.7% afterhours - VLO: Provides Q4 Interim Update: Guides Q4 $1.60-1.80 v $0.86e; +3.8% afterhours - SNDK: Reports Q4 $1.71 v $1.58e, R$1.73B v $1.70Be; Guides Q1 R$1.45-1.525B v $1.52Be; Guides initial FY14 R$6.4-6.8B v $6.72Be - conf call; -0.9% afterhours - WDC: Reports Q2 $2.19 v $2.08e, R$3.97B v $3.86Be; Guides Q3 $1.80-1.90 v $1.90e, R$3.65-3.75B v $3.69Be; GM at midpoint 27-32% - conf call; -2.0% afterhours
- JEC: Reports Q1 $0.71 v $0.73e, R$3.07B v $3.08Be - LOGI: Reports Q3 $0.35 adj (unclear if comp) v $0.15e, R$628M v $575Me
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Esprit Holdings 330.HK +0.9% (issues positive profit alert); Huayi Brothers Media Corp 300027.CN +2.2%, Zhejiang Huace Film & TV 300133.CN +5.6%, Shanghai Oriental Pearl Group 600832.CN +4.9%, BesTV New Media Co Ltd 600637.CN +3.9% (China Premier comments on cultural, media industry); Hisense Kelon Electrical Holdings 921.HK +5.0% (FY13 guidance) - Consumer staples: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887.CN +4.7% (FY13 guidance) - Financials: Industrial Securities 601377.CN -1.1% (prelim FY13 report); Insurance Australia IAG.AU -3.6% (FY14 guidance) - Materials: Newcrest Mining NCM.AU -1.9% (Q2 production results); Whitehaven Coal -1.6% (Q2 production, weak outlook for coal prices) - Energy: Santos Ltd STO.AU -1.1% (Q4 results); Sino-Tech International Holdings 724.HK +5.0% (issues positive profit alert) - Industrials: Sound Global 967.HK +10.2% (awarded project) - Utilities: Huadian Power International Corp 1071.HK +6.4% (FY13 guidance)
China Manufacturing Activity Contracts, Gauge Shows Cooling Domestic Demand Drags Down Closely Watched Indicator
An employee yawns as he works at a garment factory in Humen township, Guangdong province. Reuters BEIJING—China's economy started the year on a weaker note, as an initial gauge of manufacturing activity in January slipped to its lowest level in six months.
The preliminary HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for January showed a contraction compared with December's reading, suggesting that a loss of economic momentum in the final quarter of last year could carry through into the new year.
The initial manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.6 from December's 50.5, according to the measure released Thursday by lender HSBC Holdings 0005.HK -1.28% PLC and financial data provider Markit. A reading below 50 designates contraction compared with the previous month, while a reading above that shows growth.
"The data show China's economic growth momentum has slowed significantly," said Société Générale economist Yao Wei. "There may be some seasonal factors but the trend is clear."
Economic growth slipped slightly in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, coming in at 7.7% against 7.8% in the third quarter.
The measure "is generally in line with our expectations that we will see slower growth in the first quarter," she said. Nomura expects economic growth to slow to 7.5% in the first quarter of this year and 7.1% in the second.
Other data have also been pointing to less-robust manufacturing conditions. In the final month of last year, the industrial sector showed growth was trending lower, as output slipped to 9.7% from 10% in November.
Policy makers have taken a relaxed view of the lower growth, however, insisting that they want to focus on rebalancing the economy—shifting it away from a reliance on exports and investment for growth and strengthening the role of consumption.
But they also say they need to ensure an adequate number of new jobs—Beijing late last year reiterated a target of creating 10 million—and keep urban unemployment within 4%.
That means they still have room to keep the longer-term objectives in their sights if the economy expands at a moderate pace.
Premier Li Keqiang has said that China could manage with growth of 7.2% and still keep unemployment within manageable levels and not create new sources of social unrest.
The HSBC data showed weakness in most of the areas measured by its survey, with decreases in the subindexes for new orders, new export orders and employment. Output increased but at a slower rate than in the previous month.
Some economists said it was time for the government to move ahead with additional investment projects and loosen its monetary stance.
"We need to see the government's so-called 'proactive fiscal policy' become really proactive," said Shen Jianguang, economist at Mizuho Securities.
Mr. Shen said that higher interest rates on the interbank market—the result of a cash squeeze in the banking system in recent months—have begun to have an impact on corporate borrowing costs, particularly for smaller private companies. The interbank market is where banks lend to each other to meet their daily liquidity needs.
"Interest rates have been moving higher and smaller enterprises are feeling the effects," he said.
The HSBC survey covers many smaller companies. An official measure of manufacturing activity, due out on Feb. 1, includes more large state enterprises.
The HSBC preliminary PMI figure, also called the flash PMI, is based on 85% to 90% of total responses to HSBC's PMI survey each month, and is issued about one week before the final PMI reading.
IBM's Earnings Blues Are a Big Opportunity
This simple options strategy pays investors to wait while Big Blue works through a sales slump.
When the stock market gives you lemons, make lemonade in the options market.
This approach can help offset an earnings disaster like the horrible quarter reported by IBM . Big Blue late Tuesday reported another quarter of disappointing results and the stock promptly shed 5% after hours. Wednesday, the stock is still trading lower, creating opportunities for long-term investors, and aggressive traders, to try to take profitable advantage of nascent market dynamics that will likely dictate how IBM's (ticker: IBM) stock trades until the next earnings report.
A particularly nettlesome data point in IBM's announcement was quarterly revenue, which logged its sharpest drop in four years. IBM is taking a $1 billion restructuring charge, and planning to reduce expenses by firing employees.
These actions and sour investor sentiment should conspire to keep IBM dancing around a trading range that investors can exploit by selling puts and calls with strike prices above and below the stock's price. Options sellers will receive money for selling the puts and calls that will help them offset recent losses.
With the stock down 3% around $182.46, investors can sell the February $175 put that was recently bid at $1.10. They can also sell the February $190 call that was recently bid at 60 cents. If the stock stays between $175 and $190, investors keep the $1.70 options premiums, which sweetens IBM's $3.80 annual dividend.
If the stock dips below $175, investors are obligated to buy the stock or cover the put at a higher price. Should the stock rally above $190, investors are obligated to sell the stock or cover the call at a higher price.
More aggressive investors can sell the February $180 put for $2.50, and the February $185 call for $1.78. The trade leaves little margin for error in the IBM trading range thesis, however, so be advised.
Over the past year, IBM's stock has ranged from a low of $172.57 in mid-October to a high of $215.90 in mid-March. It is hard to envision a scenario, given the recent earnings report, in which the stock surges sharply higher before the options expire Feb. 21. It is possible the stock will set a new annual low before expiration, but that doesn't seem probable since the stock pays a hefty dividend to yield-starved investors. Additionally, all of the bad news – and there is a lot – should now be priced into the stock, while legions of investors, including Warren Buffett, still consider IBM a key long-term holding.
The risks of the IBM trade are real, and worth taking. If you opt to execute the trades, consider the British Special Forces motto: Qui audet adipiscitur. Who dares, wins.
After Hours Summary: NFLX +17.6%, FFIV +9.9%, EBAY +4.9%, ZHNE -16.3%, WDC -2.1%, NE -1.8% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: NFLX +17.6%, FFIV +9.9%, FUEL +7.2%, PLCM +5%, EBAY +4.9%, VLO +3.5%, FIO +3.5%, FBC +2.3%, CCI +2.2%, RLI +1.8%, PTC +1.3%, BXS +1%, SYK +0.5%, FFBC +0.2%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: - CRMB +17.5% (completed $5 mln senior secured credit facility), - CIE +3.6% (co, in partnership with the National Concessionaire Sonangol and the Block 21partners announced the first discovery in the Syn-rift interval in the Bicuar #1A Pre-salt deepwater exploratory well offshore Angola), - VLO +3.5% (increased dividend to $0.25 from $0.225 per share), - ACOR +3.1% (Eagle Asset Management disclosed 5.12% passive stake), - SREV +3.0 (acquired Scout Analytics; transaction closed today and is expected to be accretive to non-GAAP EPS in 2015), - TXMD +1.6% (announced issuance of U.S. patent covering natural combination hormone replacement formulations and therapies, including TX 12-001-HR), - CACC +1.1% (announced redemption of outstanding 9.125% first priority senior secured notes due 2017)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: ZHNE -16.3%, EGHT -3.2%, WDC -2.1%, NE -1.8%, URI -1.3%, TER -1.3%, TCBI -0.8%, VAR -0.3%, SNDK -0.3%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: - AEO -4.3% (named Jay Schottenstein Interim CEO succeeding Robert Hanson, who is leaving the company), - HPP -3.3% (commenced public offering of 8.25 mln shares of common stock), DSCO -2.8% (filed for 4.66 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), - EXEL -2.6% (plans to offer 10 mln shares of its common stock in an overnight underwritten public offering), - CLNY -2.5% (announced public offering of $200 mln convertible senior notes)
Lenovo Close to Deal for IBM's Low-End Server Business Deal Could Be Announced as Soon as Thursday
A sale for IBM would come as its hardware business is eroding. Bloomberg News Lenovo Group Ltd. 0992.HK -1.53% is close to a deal to buy International Business Machines Corp.'s low-end server business, according to a person familiar with the matter. A deal could be announced as soon as Thursday, people familiar with the matter said.
Lenovo, Dell Inc. and Japan's Fujitsu Ltd. 6702.TO -0.73% have looked at buying IBM's server business since the company revived a sales process for it that stalled last year, people familiar with the matter said.
Lenovo shares were halted on the Hong Kong stock exchange Thursday, pending an announcement of a transaction, the company said without disclosing details.
Lenovo last year had been in talks to buy all or part of IBM's so-called x86 server business. Talks broke down between the personal-computer maker and IBM over differences in price. Lenovo put the value of the business at below $2.5 billion at the time. Interested parties this time around were still valuing the business at below $2.5 billion, said a person familiar with the matter.
Lenovo confirmed earlier this week it was in talks about a possible acquisition but didn't name the target.
For Lenovo, which already outpaces its U.S. rivals in the personal-computer market, an acquisition could help it compete against Hewlett-Packard Co. HPQ -0.20% and Dell in servers as well. A purchase could help Lenovo secure a new source of growth and profit at a time when demand for PCs is weak globally.
This wouldn't be the first deal for the companies: In 2005, Lenovo bought IBM's personal-computer business for $1.25 billion.—at the time one of the biggest foreign acquisitions ever by a Chinese company.
A sale for IBM would come as its hardware business—which houses computer servers, storage gear and computer chips—is eroding. In its earnings report Tuesday, the company reported its sharpest quarterly revenue decline in more than four years.
Shares closed down Wednesday about 3.3% to $182.25.
A sale of the server business would likely draw scrutiny from a U.S. government committee that reviews foreign acquisitions on national-security grounds. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., or CFIUS, reviewed and approved the earlier Lenovo deal for IBM's PC business, which was a major provider of laptops and other computers to the U.S. government.
The committee doesn't disclose the details of the cases it reviews, and it sometimes requires the companies in a deal to mitigate perceived security risks to the U.S.
"There may be national security risks, depending on where and how the servers are used," said Jonathan Gafni, president of consultancy Compass Point Analytics LLC and former official with the Director of National Intelligence who worked with CFIUS. "The Lenovo-IBM PC deal might provide a model for the U.S. government to mitigate any national security risks relating to [government] use of IBM's x86 servers."
The Treasury Department, which leads CFIUS, doesn't comment on cases it reviews except in special circumstances.
While CFIUS reviews technical material relating to national security, other parts of the U.S. government, including Congress, have expressed political sensitivities to major acquisitions from China.
A sale would fit IBM's strategy of moving upstream in the technology industry. IBM has exited low-margin businesses such as the PC division it sold to Lenovo and expanded in areas such as software and services, where its technological might and consulting expertise offer better profit potential. IBM, like other big technology companies, also is stepping up its investment in cloud computing.
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U.S. Looking Into Alleged Threats Against Tel Aviv Embassy 2014-01-22 19:39:14.762 GMT
By Nicole Gaouette and Joi Preciphs Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- “We’ve been in contact with the Israeli government regarding these threats,” State Dept deputy spokesman Marie Harf tells reporters. * Harf cites reported al-Qaeda connection to embassy threat * U.S. taking “additional measures” on embassy security * “We don’t think this will in anyway impact the peace process negotiations,” Harf says * Says “other targets were mentioned” besides Tel Aviv embassy Earlier: Israeli Security Services Uncover Global Jihad Cell in Jerusalem
For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
--Editor: Cary O’Reilly
To contact the reporters on this story: Nicole Gaouette in Washington at +1-202-624-1924 or ngaouette@bloomberg.net; Joi Preciphs in Washington at +1-202-624-1989 or jpreciphs1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nicholas Johnston at +1-202-654-1264 or njohnston3@bloomberg.net
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Ariad Up 6.3% Post-Mkt; Daily Mail Says Board Approached on M&A 2014-01-22 22:39:26.181 GMT
By Sasha Damouni Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Ariad up as much as 7.3% post-mkt on 914k shrs after Daily Mail, without citing sources, says at least 3 intl pharma cos., including Eli Lilly, have approached ARIA board, may pay up to $20/shr in cash. * GSK, Shire also mentioned as other interested parties * Daily Mail story http://dailym.ai/1mtY7UM
For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story: Sasha Damouni in New York at +1-212-617-7787 or sdamouni2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joanna Ossinger at +1-212-617-7789 or jossinger@bloomberg.net
JCP Jan15 $20 calls seeing interest with 9230 contracts trading versus open interest of 24.6K -- one recent trade of ~8K contracts -- shares trading to HoD (+3.7%) (6.73 +0.24), +7,3% on the last 2days.
Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Mixed Once Again
Equities endured an uninspiring Wednesday session, which unfolded in similar fashion to Tuesday's affair. Like yesterday, the major averages ended mixed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) coming out on the losing end while the Nasdaq (+0.4%) and S&P 500 (+0.1%) eked out modest gains.
The price-weighted Dow spent the entire session in the red as 19 of its 30 components registered losses. Most notably, the second-largest index member, IBM (IBM 182.25, -6.18), plunged 3.3% after beating its Capital IQ earnings estimate by 13 cents on below-consensus revenue. Despite the bottom-line beat, the report was scrutinized due to the company accounting for a lower tax rate than in previous quarters.
On the upside, another large index member, United Technologies (UTX 116.12, +1.13), gained 1.0% after reporting a bottom-line beat on below-consensus revenue. Furthermore, the stock factored into the outperformance of the industrial sector (+0.2%), which also drew strength from transports. The Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped 1.1% with help from railroads after Norfolk Southern (NSC 92.94, +4.23) reported an earnings beat.
Like industrials, most other cyclical sectors finished just ahead of the broader market. The discretionary sector (+0.3%) rallied despite cautious action among retailers after Coach (COH 49.38, -3.17) reported disappointing earnings and said its North American comparable-store sales tumbled 13.6% during the quarter.
Elsewhere, energy (+0.3%) climbed as crude oil rose 1.8% to $96.72/bbl while materials (-0.9%) lagged after Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 34.52, -0.74) reported a top-line miss.
The remaining cyclical groups, financials (+0.1%) and technology (unch) ended little changed.
On the countercyclical side, health care (+0.1%) and utilities (+0.1%) finished in-line with the S&P 500 while consumer staples (-0.1%) and telecom services (-0.7%) ended in the red.
Treasuries finished in the red as the 10-yr yield ticked up three basis points to 2.86%. Trading volume was well below average with only 616 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.
Today's economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, which rose 4.7% to follow last week's 11.9% increase.
Tomorrow, weekly initial claims will be reported at 8:30 ET while the November FHFA Housing Price Index will be released at 9:00 ET. December Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators will cross the wires at 10:00 ET. Nasdaq Composite +1.6% YTD Russell 2000 +1.6% YTD S&P 500 -0.2% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.2% YTD