WSJ : Tougher to Drill for Oil in an Emerging-Markets Storm

Tougher to Drill for Oil in an Emerging-Markets Storm
National oil companies rarely lack reserves in the ground. It is capital that can be harder to come by.

So emerging markets' slide from honored guest to social pariah in many a portfolio presents a problem, and not just for these national champions. Oil-services companies could suffer, too.

Petróleo Brasileiro, known as Petrobras, exemplifies all this. Three years ago, it sported a market value of $213 billion. Today, that is a mere $78 billion.

The Brazilian national champion's fall from grace is stunning, but it isn't alone. In 2007, when both oil and emerging markets ran hot, the PFC Energy 50, a ranking of companies by market value, had four national oil companies in its top 10: PetroChina, 601857.SH -0.40% Gazprom, GAZP.RS -3.44% Sinopec 600688.SH +0.68% and Petrobras. Their combined value of $1.55 trillion was actually higher than the total for the five Western integrated oil majors in the top 10 that year. PetroChina even knocked traditional leader Exxon Mobil XOM +0.87% from the top spot.

In the latest ranking, rechristened the IHS Energy 50, the four state-backed majors still are in the top 10. But their market value had slumped to $508 billion. The five Western majors also were down, but by just 14%, to $1.21 trillion.

In part, the national oil companies suffer from being the biggest, most liquid stocks available to sell when investors' nerves crack. Foreign investors, especially, must beware sudden currency swings. In contrast, Western oil majors such as Exxon often are seen as havens in a storm.

Moreover, while the state's backing confers some benefits, it comes at a cost. Petrobras, for example, is in charge of developing Brazil's offshore riches, one of the most exciting discoveries of the past decade. Yet local-content rules, designed to encourage domestic industry, have pushed costs up and deadlines out.

Perhaps more pernicious, and a problem not just for Petrobras, is the cost of subsidizing domestic fuel prices. In many emerging markets, official fuel prices are set below market cost, with the national companies' refining and marketing operations picking up the tab for the difference. This business at Petrobras is estimated by Barclays to have lost $7 billion in 2013.

If all this undermines the investment case for State Oil relative to Big Oil, it also presents a risk to companies providing oil-field services.

The national companies account for more than $1 in every $3 spent on finding and developing new reserves world-wide, according to Morgan Stanley, and an even higher proportion outside North America. They also constitute almost half of expected growth in spending over the next two years. That is partly because Western oil majors are coming under shareholder pressure to rein in ballooning budgets.

State-backed majors don't fret quite so much about minority shareholders. But capital markets still can send a strong signal via falling share prices and rising bond yields, the latter not merely for the companies themselves but also for their governments.

If budgets get trimmed, that is bullish for oil prices in the long term as new fields get delayed, eventually spurring more drilling.

But there are two big caveats. First, reduced spending growth would be painful in the near term. And second, emerging markets account for the bulk of the forecast expansion in global energy consumption. If a squeeze on them cuts into oil-field spending, that same squeeze will also serve to curb demand growth, ultimately reducing the need for investment in the first place.

WSJ : Japanese Stocks Swing to a Foreign Beat

Japanese Stocks Swing to a Foreign Beat

Japanese stocks are possessed. At least it feels that way given their wild swings.

Traders in New York and London rub their eyes when they awake to see big moves overnight in Japan. The 4.2% drop last Tuesday in the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average was hardly unique. It has fallen or risen 3% or more in a day 16 times in the past year. The S&P 500, by contrast, hasn't moved that much once during that time.

That is the kind of drama that investors expect from Turkey, not the fourth-largest exchange by market capitalization in the world.

Japan has a stable government, a deep pool of institutional investors, free flow of capital and transparency. This is a formula for a liquid market that plunges only on remarkable occasions.

Yet the Japanese market's 30-day volatility, as measured by Thomson Reuters, is on par with emerging-market hotbeds Argentina and Thailand.

So what is behind all this to-ing and fro-ing? Blame a messy mix of feedback loops.

Japanese are a minority in their own market now, with overseas money accounting for nearly 60% of trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in January. A decade ago it was 35%.

That larger share of foreign investors may reflect that in 2013 Japan was among the best-performing stock exchanges globally, at least among developed markets. The Nikkei was up 57%, beating the S&P 500's 30% gain.

The catch is that for foreigners to take advantage of rising Japanese stocks, they have to short, or bet against, the yen. This is to prevent currency moves from erasing gains. Japan's biggest companies are exporters and book gains on foreign earnings when the yen falls. When it rises, the opposite occurs.

Tweak the yen, and stocks follow. Last week, fears that the U.S. recovery was losing steam sent U.S. bond yields lower. That reduced the difference, or spread, between Japanese and U.S. bonds. A narrower spread means that there is less incentive to hold dollars, so the yen rises.

Computer-programmed trading systems sense the yen rising and sell Japanese stocks, while also unwinding short yen trades. The cycle continues. Moreover, the increasing popularity of exchange-traded funds—especially among foreign investors desiring a quick, cost-effective way to dip into and out of foreign markets—likely exacerbates volatility.

The Bank of Japan and its monetary-easing program hangs over all this. More easing later this year, which many expect, should mean a weaker yen. That draws in more foreign investors, who made a ton betting on monetary easing in the U.S. and recognize a similar liquidity-driven opportunity. Similar to the U.S. in recent years, investors are tending to move together in a risk-on, risk-off fashion.

When will all this end? Getting Japanese pension, insurance and individual investors back into stocks would smooth the rough edges. They don't have yen trades to unwind. Seeing Japanese take more risks with their savings also would be proof that "Abenomics" really is working.

Until then, volatility rules.

Sony Suffering Seen as Prelude to Loeb-Inspired Revamp: Real M&A

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Sony Suffering Seen as Prelude to Loeb-Inspired Revamp: Real M&A 2014-02-09 20:10:39.169 GMT

(For a Real M&A column news alert: SALT REALMNA <GO>.)

By Brooke Sutherland, Tara Lachapelle and Cliff Edwards Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Sony Corp.’s latest earnings disappointment held a silver lining: the company’s willingness to entertain some of activist investor Daniel Loeb’s suggestions. And it may be just the beginning. The Tokyo-based company forecast a $1.1 billion annual loss as it sells the personal-computer business and splits the TV- manufacturing division into a separate unit that it may divest eventually. While falling short of Loeb’s calls for a bigger breakup, the moves sparked an 11 percent jump in the shares last week, and followed a pledge to provide more transparency in Sony’s financial statements. “This goes a long way towards what Dan Loeb was talking about,” Lawrence Haverty, a fund manager at Gamco Investors Inc. in Rye, New York, said in a phone interview. Gamco oversees $47 billion and owns Sony shares. “I like the idea of first things first and one step at a time. There’s an awful lot of really encouraging stuff that’s happening.” More changes are needed at the $17 billion company, said Hudson Square Research Inc., which suggests spinning off a portion of Sony Entertainment, the unit that encompasses film and music, as Loeb suggested last May. Or Sony could follow the lead of rival Panasonic Corp. and continue to sell off pieces of its electronics business, said Jefferies Group LLC. Sony’s insurance and banking unit, which contributed the most operating income in the year ended March 2013, also could be split off as a separate company, Gamco’s Haverty said. John Dolak, a spokesman for Sony in the U.S., didn’t respond to a phone call or e-mail requesting comment. A representative for Sony in Japan didn’t respond to an e-mail sent after normal business hours.

Loeb Push

Loeb, who heads hedge fund Third Point LLC, urged Sony in May to sell as much as 20 percent of its entertainment division in an initial public offering so that the company could focus on turning around the struggling electronics business. At the time, shareholders had lost more than $100 billion in market value since 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. After Sony Chief Executive Officer Kazuo Hirai and the board rejected the proposal in August, the activist investor said he was “disappointed” with the decision and intended to “explore further options to create value for Sony shareholders.” Last month, Third Point called for a “serious effort to restructure the PC and TV businesses,” according to a letter sent to the hedge fund’s investors. Third Point declined to comment last week.

Right Direction

Sony announced Feb. 6 that it’s selling the Vaio computer business to buyout firm Japan Industrial Partners Inc. and splitting its TV manufacturing unit into a separate operating entity. CEO Hirai also said he hasn’t ruled out a divestiture of the TV division in the future after receiving “various offers.” The company’s shares had their the biggest three-day gain in more than eight months on news of the sale. Before the rise, Sony had dropped 18 percent since Loeb first pushed for changes. Separating “the TV segment and selling the PC business are steps in the right direction to unlock value,” Todd Lowenstein, a Los Angeles-based fund manager at HighMark Capital Management Inc., which oversees about $17 billion, wrote in an e-mail. Sony has more to do and should reconsider Loeb’s advice on the entertainment spinoff, according to Daniel Ernst, a New York-based analyst at Hudson Square. The unit makes the “Spider-Man” movies and represents music artists such as Miley Cyrus.

Undervalued Shares

Sony is cheaper than most of its peers. Last week, it was valued at a 28 percent discount to its net assets. Consumer electronics makers with market values exceeding $1 billion have a median price-book ratio of 1.7, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “The shares are quite undervalued,” Albert Saporta, the head of research at Makor Capital Ltd. and a managing director at AIM&R, said in a phone interview. ‘We’re pretty much on the same wavelength as Daniel Loeb.’’ Based on the sum of its parts, Sony should be valued at least 50 percent more than last week, Haverty of Gamco said. That implies about $25 per American depositary receipt, or about 2,500 yen a share. The stock closed at 1,691 yen last week. Sony could consider spinning off its financial services unit, which is consistently profitable and could exist on its own, Haverty said. The company sold shares in the division in 2007 and currently retains a majority stake in the unit, which has a market value of about $7 billion.

Electronics Exit?

Others think Sony’s focus should instead be on selling more assets in its consumer electronics division. Competitor Panasonic has jumped about 57 percent in the last 12 months in part because of shrinking its TV and handset business, and Sony should take note, according to Atul Goyal of Jefferies. “For them, salvation is an exit from electronics,” Goyal said in an interview last week with Bloomberg Television. “If there’s any buyer whatsoever in the electronics business -- and there might still be some today for TV and others -- get out now.” Besides TV’s, Sony makes products including digital cameras, headphones, MP3 players and speakers. While Haverty said he would be happy to see Sony break up, he’s optimistic about the prospects for the TV business, which he said is showing the most promise among Sony’s electronics products. Sony may make a comeback in the next 18 months as the company introduces ultra high definition TV sets that cost as much as $25,000 to meet consumer demand, he said. 

‘New Cycle’

“The consumer electronics business, I don’t really want to be an owner of that,” Haverty said. “But within electronics, investors have a shot at making money on the television business. It has a shot of working because we’re going into this new cycle.” It’s difficult for Japanese companies to make drastic changes, said Masahiko Fukasawa, co-Japan representative and managing director at AlixPartners LLP. “Discussions over strategy at Japanese companies are veiled in a haze,” Fukasawa said. “It’s hard for them to make a decision to dispose of a business that is sometimes profitable and sometimes not. In our view, it’s a waste of resources trying to sustain a business with little expectation for growth.” While Sony’s management may not think seriously about a transformation unless performance suffers even more, the moves announced last week signal at least somewhat of a shift in the company’s attitude toward the consumer electronics business, according to Goyal of Jefferies. “These are the first baby steps in the right direction,” the analyst said. “If they continue, that’s a good sign.”

For Related News and Information: Sony Forecasts $1.1 Billion Loss as Hirai Misses TV Profit Goal NSN N0LJ2B6KLVRK <GO> Sony Rejects Loeb Push to Sell Part of Entertainment Unit NSN MR3FS70D9L35 <GO> Sony’s $100 Billion Lost Decade Supports Loeb Breakup: Real M&A NSN MMVU6A6KLVRN <GO> Loeb Pushes for Sony Breakup With Entertainment IPO Proposal NSN MMT2F06S972K <GO> Sony deal news: 6758 JT <equity> TCNI MNA <GO> Real M&A columns: NI REALMNA <GO> Top deal news: DTOP <GO>

--With assistance from Mariko Yasu in Tokyo and Beth Jinks in New York. Editors: Beth Williams, Sarah Rabil

To contact the reporters on this story: Brooke Sutherland in New York at +1-212-617-0448 or bsutherland7@bloomberg.net; Tara Lachapelle in New York at +1-212-617-8911 or tlachapelle@bloomberg.net; Cliff Edwards in San Francisco at +1-415-617-7074 or cedwards28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Sarah Rabil at +1-212-617-5992 or srabil@bloomberg.net; Anthony Palazzo at +1-323-782-4228 or apalazzo@bloomberg.net

FT : Activist investors force higher price takeovers

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Activist investors force higher price takeovers

Corporate America’s battle with activist investors is increasingly being fought across the deal table rather than the boardroom, according to new research.
There has been a surge in the number of campaigns to force companies to pay higher prices when taking over a competitor.

In the first 10 months of 2013, hedge funds pushed for higher prices in 14 takeover attempts, achieving success in 10, according to a study from Wall Street law firm Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett.
The increase in the number of campaigns – and their success rate – is pronounced: in 2012, only one of the four campaigns to lift the price of a target company was successful.
Agitating for higher deal prices, or so-called “bumpitrage”, combines the activist predilection for audacity with the traditional practice of arbitrage by investors, who buy into a target company in the hope of the shares being acquired at a premium.
Recent successful campaigns include those against the merger of MetroPCS and T-Mobile US last year and McKesson’s $8.6bn takeover of rival drugs distributor Celesio.
Activist investor Carl Icahn mounted a successful campaign during Michael Dell’s $24.9bn buyout of the computer maker that bears his name.
After months of public fighting over the future of the business with Mr Icahn, Mr Dell and his private equity backers bumped the price to $13.88 a share from $13.65 a share. Both sides claimed a victory.
“Someone like me is not going to show up in a deal unless it’s obvious that a company is being sold too cheap,” said Mr Icahn.
“Dell was different from a classic move just to raise the price of the bid; I was prepared to invest $4bn of our own capital to make a counter-offer because we thought Michael Dell was buying it too cheaply”.
The growing success that activists enjoy in forcing higher takeout prices also reflects the rise of the industry. At the end of 2013, US activist funds had more than $90bn of assets under management, up from $39bn at the end of 2009.
“Every deal that I am working on now, the issue of whether an activist turns up in the stock and starts pushing for a higher price is one concerning boards and management,” said Mario Ponce, a partner at Simpson Thacher.
“The six million dollar question is whether this will have a chilling effect on M&A,” said Mr Ponce. “It hasn’t yet, but the spectre of it is hanging over certain types of transactions and that could spread doubt.”

FT : Statoil – Norwegian would

Statoil – Norwegian would

State oil group’s cheap valuation has caught the market’s eye
Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Oil exploration is about opportunities seized or missed. Statoil, Norway’s state oil company, has taken some big punts in the past – from the Norwegian North Sea to Tanzania to US shale plays. Some were too expensive; some fizzled. But proven reserves are rising now and despite six months of strong performance, its shares remain very cheap. Time to take a chance?

Friday’s fourth-quarter results were below expectations. Net earnings of NKr11bn ($1.8bn) were short of the expected NKr12.8bn ($2.1bn). Production for the full year fell 3 per cent. A painful 8 per cent drop in realised natural gas prices probably caused the most damage over the past year.
Yet the shares traded up nearly 6 per cent on Friday. Statoil’s cheap valuation seems to have caught the market’s attention. Its ratio of enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, at 2.5, is more than 40 per cent below its global peers. But this discount has persisted for years as the company has serially disappointed investors. The difference now may be that expectations for production growth are outstripping those of most rivals.
Statoil’s three-year average reserve replacement rate – a metric that indicates how much oil and gas it has discovered in excess of what it has extracted – is 119 per cent. Among the oil majors that have reported their reserve numbers, only Chevron has done better. Credit Suisse forecasts that Statoil will average 3.5 per cent production growth for the rest of this decade. Again, Chevron is the only major expected to better this figure.
Statoil’s US assets should drive most of this growth, though the Norwegian field Johan Sverdrup will also have a healthy impact late in the decade.
Statoil could and should trade closer to its peers. If management can deliver current projects, plus book reserves from recent discoveries, this Norwegian would.

>>> Mediaset pay TV operations attract interest of NewsCorp

Mediaset pay TV operations attract interest of NewsCorp
NewsCorp, the US-listed media group, is interested in the planned spin-off of Mediaset's pay TV operations in Italy and Spain, the Italian language daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. The report cited market rumours claiming that NewsCorp head Rupert Murdoch had contacted Mediaset on the matter.

The report cited industrial sources. The item noted that TF1 does not yet have a presence in Spain or in Italy.

As previously reported,the French media group TF1, Canal Plus, RTL, Al Jazeera and Telefonica are believed to be interested in the spin-off.

A previous reported claimed that private equity firms Blackrock, KKR and Permira are also believed to be interested.

The report noted the operation foresees the contribution to a newco of 100% of the activities of Mediaset Premium and the 22% stake in Spanish operator Digital Plus.
Il Sole 24 Ore

FT : Pacific trade winds stall global warming

Pacific trade winds stall global warming

Researchers have cast new light on one of the most baffling riddles in climate science: why has global warming stalled when emissions of the greenhouse gases blamed for climate change have kept soaring? The explanation lies in an unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds over the past 20 years, according to a study by US and Australian scientists. These easterly winds, which blow across the tropics, have speeded up ocean circulation at the equator, pushing heat deep down into the ocean’s depths and bringing cooler water up to the surface. This has driven more cooling in other regions and accounts for much of the reason why global average air surface temperatures have stayed virtually steady since 2001, says the paper, published in this week’s Nature Climate Change journal. This pause could persist for much of the present decade if the strong trade winds continue, but the paper warns that once they slow down "rapid warming is expected to resume". "Scientists have long suspected that extra ocean heat uptake has slowed the rise of global average temperatures, but the mechanism behind the hiatus remained unclear," said the study’s lead author, Professor Matthew England of the Australian Research Council’s Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. The implications of the research were of concern, he added. "We should be very clear: the current hiatus offers no comfort. We are just seeing another pause in warming before the next inevitable rise in global temperatures." The stalling in air temperature rises, which follows a steady trend of warming through much of the 20th century, has led some to question whether climate change is a serious problem, or whether it exists at all. The proportion of Americans who do not believe global warming is happening rose 7 percentage points to 23 per cent between April and November last year, according to a recent US study. While nearly two-thirds do believe climate change is occurring, the number who think humans are causing it has fallen slightly since 2012. However, some climate scientists say the findings on the role of Pacific trade winds, which build on previous studies pointing to the oceans’ role in absorbing heat, suggest the change is linked to human activity. "These changes are temporarily masking the effects of man-made global warming," said Professor Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading in the UK. "It is likely that the current slowdown is only a temporary reprieve from rapid increases in global temperatures," he said, adding that it would be surprising if big changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation over the past 20 years had not already disrupted weather patterns. The past two years have been marked by a series of unusual weather extremes. Australia recorded its hottest year on record in 2013, while the continental US had its warmest year in 2012. In the UK, where large parts of England have just had their wettest January in more than a century and the country’s south has been hit by serious flooding and coastal damage, Met Office scientists said it was still not possible to say definitively that climate change was to blame. "Nevertheless, recent studies have suggested an increase in the intensity of Atlantic storms that take a more southerly track, typical of this winter’s extreme weather," the scientists say. "There is also an increasing body of evidence that shows that extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense, and that the rate of increase is consistent with what is expected from the fundamental physics of a warming world."

>>> Hutchison Whampoa rumoured to be looking to acquire Tele2 Sweden for USD 6.3

Hutchison Whampoa rumoured to be looking to acquire Tele2 Sweden for USD 6.3bn

Hutchison Whampoa, the Hong Kong based conglomerate, could be interested in acquiring Tele2 Sweden, according to Dagens Industri. The Swedish business daily reported that Tele2 saw its share price soar on Friday based on rumours that Hutchison is interested in paying USD 6.3bn for the Swedish Kinnevik-owned telecom company. The paper wrote that it was also speculated that Goldman Sachs is advising Hutchison while Morgan Stanley is acting as the advisor for Tele2.

The paper wrote, however, that while it is possible Hutchison is interested in acquisitions, it seems unlikely that it would be willing to pay USD 6.3bn which is more than Tele2 Sweden’s market value including its SEK 8bn (USD 1.2bn) in debts.

The paper also speculated that it is also unlikely that Swedish Investor, which owns the Nordic telco 3 together with Hutchison, would be willing to participate at such a price.

Source Dagens Industri

WSJ : Apple Can't Buy Back Confidence

Apple Can't Buy Back Confidence

As much as it is, $40 billion doesn't always buy your way out of a jam.

Apple AAPL +1.40% has been on a buyback tear, repurchasing $40 billion of its own shares over the last 12 months. About $14 billion alone came the last two weeks. That is since the company's fiscal first-quarter results disappointed and the stock fell 8% in one day.

While part of an existing $60 billion buyback plan, chief Tim Cook painted the move during an interview with the Wall Street Journal last week as an investment in Apple, effectively saying the stock is undervalued. With Apple's shares currently trading at less than eight times forward earnings—excluding its $159 billion cash hoard—the valuation is certainly undemanding.

But buybacks aren't making the best use of Apple's resources, even if they helped Apple in its most recent period deliver its first quarter of earnings-per-share growth after four straight declines.

If anything, they make the company appear reactive.

Activist Carl Icahn has been pushing for $50 billion more in buybacks. However, share repurchases haven't been a major driver of Apple's share price. The stock is still more than 10% below its level of March 19, 2012, when the company announced its first dividend and buyback.

Little wonder, since the return on Apple's stock purchases isn't great. Looking at the $14 billion of stock the company bought back on the open market in the last three quarters of 2013, the return to date, excluding dividends, is less than 8%.

Granted, not much time has elapsed. Yet with Apple's actual business generating an average return on invested capital of 28.6% in fiscal 2013, according to FactSet, the company's efforts at financial engineering pale in comparison.

Having spent nearly $4.8 billion on research and development in the last calendar year, Apple clearly has new products in the hopper. Those are what will drive higher returns, not a campaign to appease Mr. Icahn.

NYT : In the SAC Saga, It’s Hard to Chase a Shadow


“How is the big guy?”

That was the question Phillipp Villhauer, the head of trading at SAC Capital Advisors, asked his assistant in an email as he headed to a meeting in New York on July 21, 2008. It was also the question hanging in the air of Room 110 in the federal courthouse in Manhattan over the last five weeks.

Mathew Martoma, a former SAC portfolio manager charged with insider trading, was sitting at the defendant’s table. But another man — much discussed in testimony, but never seen — seemed to overshadow the proceeding.

Steven A. Cohen. The Big Guy.

On Thursday, Mr. Martoma, 39, was convicted on charges of insider trading. He could be sentenced to 7 to 10 years in prison. Mr. Cohen, 57, the head of SAC, is still living in his 35,000-square-foot Greenwich, Conn., home, collecting works of art, including a Jeff Koons “Balloon Dog,” and, if all goes as expected, will still manage a firm, albeit one that trades only with his $9 billion personal fortune, rather than with other people’s money.

The jury verdict in the Martoma trial brings to eight the number of SAC-related convictions for Preet Bharara, the United States attorney for the Southern District. Last year, SAC itself agreed to plead guilty to insider trading charges and to pay a $1.2 billion penalty. But in a nearly decade-long pursuit by law enforcement, Mr. Cohen, one of Wall Street’s top stock traders and most successful hedge fund managers, has remained out of range.

The government’s obsession with Mr. Cohen came through in the testimony, offering the most dramatic sit-up-and-listen moment in the trial. Mr. Martoma was accused of using information provided by Dr. Sidney Gilman — a University of Michigan professor who had confidential results of a clinical trial of an Alzheimer’s drug — to make valuable trades in two drug companies. On cross-examination, Dr. Gilman volunteered that an F.B.I. agent told him in 2011 that he and Mr. Martoma were nothing more than a “grain of sand,” largely irrelevant to the investigation. The real target, Dr. Gilman said the agent had told him, was Mr. Cohen.

But even with Mr. Martoma under indictment, the government could get no closer to Mr. Cohen. Mr. Martoma would not cooperate with prosecutors, and with his conviction, say defense lawyers, former prosecutors and even some still in law enforcement, the investigation of the once wildly successful hedge fund seems to be winding down.

The trial of Mr. Martoma nonetheless offered a glimpse into the workings of SAC, and into the reverence in which Mr. Cohen was held at the firm. And, for the first time, it linked him to the questionable trades.

Earlier on that July day when Mr. Villhauer sent the “big guy” email, he received specific instructions from Mr. Cohen. Mr. Villhauer was to take steps to sell a large stock position that SAC had amassed in the pharmaceutical company Elan. (Later, the fund would also sell a large stake in Wyeth.) Mr. Cohen emphasized to Mr. Villhauer that the stock should be sold quickly and with “limited visibility,” so as not to raise eyebrows on Wall Street or even in the ranks of SAC’s roughly 900 employees.

Later, on his way to New York, Mr. Villhauer was curious about Mr. Cohen’s mood back at the firm’s offices in Stamford, Conn. His assistant responded that Mr. Cohen “seems mellow,” but quickly added, “he’ll probably blow” in a few hours.

Mr. Villhauer testified at Mr. Martoma’s trial that he had followed through on Mr. Cohen’s instructions, eventually locating some rarely used internal accounts at SAC that did not “have many eyes looking” at them from which to make the trades. The exercise took four days, he testified. Mr. Villhauer told the jury that, other than Mr. Cohen and Mr. Martoma, no more than a dozen people at SAC had even been aware of the trading — and most of those people reported to him.

Law enforcement has pursued the hedge fund of Steven A. Cohen for nearly a decade.
Not even Mr. Cohen’s right-hand man, Chandler Bocklage, who sat next to Mr. Cohen for nearly a decade, knew about the Elan and Wyeth trades, Mr. Bocklage testified. He said he learned that the hedge fund had sold all its shares only when Mr. Cohen told him about it many days later.

The sale of Elan and Wyeth shares paid off. Elan announced on July 30, 2008, that a clinical trial had revealed potentially serious side effects with the experimental Alzheimer’s drug that the two companies were jointly developing. Shares of each company plummeted. By selling, SAC avoided potentially steep losses and generated profits totaling $275 million.

The federal jury in Manhattan found that the timing of SAC’s stock sales was no coincidence. The seven women and five men convicted Mr. Martoma of profiting from inside information provided by two doctors who were involved in the Alzheimer’s drug trial. One of them was Dr. Gilman, a paid consultant, who testified that he warned Mr. Martoma of potential trouble with the experimental drug a week before the results of the clinical trial were made public.

Prosecutors introduced evidence that a day before Mr. Cohen gave the instruction to begin dumping Elan shares, he was on the telephone for 20 minutes on a Sunday with Mr. Martoma. The call took place three days after Dr. Gilman first said he told Mr. Martoma about the problems with the clinical trial.

It is not known what the two men discussed during that Sunday call, but prosecutors inferred that they talked about Mr. Martoma’s change of heart about Elan. As Mr. Villhauer’s testimony made clear, Mr. Cohen’s fingerprints were all over the trade.

In his closing remarks, Richard M. Strassberg, a lawyer for Mr. Martoma, pointedly appealed to the jury not to convict his client as “a means to make a case against Steve Cohen.” He reiterated that Mr. Cohen had decided how the trading was done, not his client.

“Mathew Martoma is not Steven Cohen,” said Mr. Strassberg, jabbing his hand in the air to underscore the point. “Steven Cohen is not here.”

But he was, in a way. And having heard some of the evidence at Mr. Martoma’s trial, several securities lawyers said federal authorities might have been able to make a circumstantial case against Mr. Cohen based on the telephone call with Mr. Martoma and on the testimony that he directed the trading in the stocks. But without Mr. Martoma’s testimony, or other evidence directly showing that Mr. Cohen knew about the results of the clinical trial, a case might not have passed muster with a jury.

Federal authorities have said they are still investigating SAC, but with no new cases involving former or current employees, Mr. Cohen seems likely to avoid criminal prosecution. Moreover, the statutory period for bringing securities fraud charges on stock trades still under investigation will end this summer. Jonathan Gasthalter, a spokesman for Mr. Cohen and SAC, declined to comment.

Michael F. Bachner, a criminal defense lawyer and former federal prosecutor, said: “Even though Steven Cohen may have been doing the trading, the issue is one of the intent behind the trading, and it will always come down to what did Steve Cohen know.”

Getting at what Mr. Cohen knew is devilishly difficult. After all, this is a man known for caution and secrecy. Generally, the firm did not save most internal emails and instant-message communications before 2009. Even before the investigation became public in October 2009, Mr. Cohen would periodically have SAC offices checked for listening devices, said two people familiar with the matter. In the past, he would even buy up rights from photographers who took his picture, and, to this day, there are few publicly available photos of him.

Moreover, Mr. Cohen suspected that the government was listening in. He called a friend in the summer of 2009 to alert him to the possibility that a former associate of both men was surreptitiously taping phone calls in connection with an insider trading probe. That probably made him very careful about what he said. And a government wiretap placed on Mr. Cohen’s home phone that summer turned up no evidence of any wrongdoing, said people briefed on the matter but not authorized to speak publicly.

Some in law enforcement speculate that Mr. Martoma, who has resisted repeated overtures from the government to cooperate, might be inclined now to tell all about his July 20 telephone conversation with Mr. Cohen in a bid for leniency.

Mr. Martoma certainly has reason to cut a deal before his sentencing on June 10. He and his wife, Rosemary, a pediatrician, have three children, and he will also face the forfeiture of a significant part of the family’s assets. But lawyers noted that his bargaining position was stronger before the trial and especially before it emerged that he was expelled from Harvard Law School in 1999 for doctoring his transcript.

Mr. Martoma’s cheating at Harvard was not introduced as evidence to the jury. But if he were to become a witness against Mr. Cohen, it could be used to discredit him. And there is the inconvenient fact that, throughout the trial, Mr. Strassberg maintained that Mr. Martoma had done nothing wrong.

“It wouldn’t be a cakewalk,” said Richard J. Holwell, a former federal judge who presided over the insider trading trial and conviction of the hedge fund billionaire Raj Rajaratnam and is now partner at Holwell Shuster & Goldberg. But if Mr. Martoma were able provide prosecutors with direct evidence against Mr. Cohen, “certainly his credibility is going to be severely damaged,” Mr. Holwell added.

Several defense lawyers said Mr. Martoma’s testimony is not worth much to prosecutors now unless he has some email, document or other piece of physical evidence to support any version he would present of his conversation with Mr. Cohen.

Then again, Mr. Martoma could have nothing to offer. The 20-minute conversation with Mr. Cohen could have been about anything. Or nothing more than Mr. Martoma telling his boss that he was no longer bullish on Elan and the Alzheimer’s drug. After all, other portfolio managers and health care analysts at SAC did not share Mr. Martoma’s enthusiasm for the experimental drug. So maybe Mr. Cohen decided that it was simply time to bail.

Mr. Martoma told his own team of analysts and traders that he made his decision to get out of the stocks by simply looking at his notes.

As Mr. Bocklage, who helped Mr. Cohen trade his own portfolio for a decade, testified: No one at SAC would ever question the hedge fund boss on a trade. “I personally think that Steve is the greatest trader of all time,” Mr. Bocklage added on the stand.

Certainly, plenty of people on Wall Street still agree. SAC, in fact, is hiring, recently interviewing for an analyst position. People still want to work there. The Big Guy might be in a pretty good mood.