>>> Realia to receive offer from Fortress

Realia to receive offer from Fortress 

FCC and Bankia, owners of the listed Spanish property company Realia, will receive this week an offer for their 62% stake up for sale from the investment fund Fortress, Expansion reported, citing sources close to the process. Fortress thus joins Orion and AEW, who have also confirmed their interest in making a binding offer for Realia.

Suitors Blackstone, Anchorage, Axa and Pontegadea (vehicle of the Spanish investor Amancio Ortega) have finally decided to abandon the operation, the Spanish-language business daily said. The deadline for offers ends tomorrow, Friday.

Fortress, who is partnering with King Street for the transaction, wants to acquire Realia via a debt-for-equity swap, the report said.

As reported, last year Realia posted a EUR 51m loss, sales of EUR 203m and EBITDA of EUR 103m. FCC holds 37% of Realia and Bankia 25%. Goldman Sachs is handling the sale.


Source Expansion

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: AUD rallies on upgrade in FY14/15 CAPEX forecast; Japan retail sales slump as higher tax sets in

***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN APR RETAIL SALES M/M: -13.7% V -11.7%E; Y/Y: -4.4% V -3.3%E (biggest decline since Mar 2011) - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 PRIVATE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE (CAPEX) Q/Q: -4.2% V -1.9%E (2nd quarterly decline) - (AU) AUSTRALIA APR HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 2.9% (4th consecutive rise) V 0.2% PRIOR - (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BDB): LEAVES SELIC TARGET RATE UNCHANGED AT 11.00%, AS EXPECTED (first pause since Apr 2013) - (PH) PHILIPPINES Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.2% V 1.9%E; Y/Y: 5.7% V 6.4%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: $7.1B V $7.3B PRIOR; GOODS BALANCE: $10.6B V $8.0B PRIOR

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.5%, Jun S&P500 +0.1% at 1,910, Aug gold -0.1% at $1,258, Jul crude oil +0.2% at $102.94/brl

***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Japan retail sales registered their biggest annual decline in over 3 years, as both m/m and y/y figures missed estimates. Note that this is the first reporting month of data since consumption tax went up to 8% from 5% on April 1st. - Also in Japan, a former BOJ dissenter and one of the more dovish board members Shirai said she was confident the central bank would achieve its inflation target, but also noted it could take more than 2 years under the current flexible targeting. She also noted that easing would continue after FY15/16 and cautioned that policymakers need to see the impact of next sales tax rise before judging if 2% inflation stable. Recall that up until the most recent BOJ decision, Shirai wanted the BOJ to express more concern over the pace of improvement in employment and income situation in its "Risks to Outlook" section of the statement.

- Australia released its Q1 CAPEX data, and while the main figure missed estimates for the 2nd consecutive quarter of deceleration, AUD shot higher on upgrade in FY14/15 spending projections. Est2 for FY14/15 CapEx was raised to A$137.1B, which is still down -12.0% y/y but up from prior A$124.9B est #1. FY13/14 forecast was lowered to A$162.8B, flat y/y and down from A$167.1B Est #5.

- Brazil Central Bank announced it was pausing its tightening campaign that started over a year ago. As expected, the BDB left its SELIC target rate at 11.0% in a unanimous decision, noting it was taking both the macroeconomic situation and inflation outlook into account.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China regulators said to have requested banks conduct stress test - Chinese press - (KR) South Korea state-run think tank Korea Development Institute (KDI): Lowers 2014 GDP forecast to 3.7% vs 3.9% prior - Korean press - (JP) BOJ's Shirai: Sees 2% inflation with no major burden on businesses, households; Positive cycle of output, income, expenditure likely to continue in Japan

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.48T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.0860% v 0.089% prior; bid to cover: 6.2x v 5.90x prior - (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥90.5B in foreign bonds last week vs bought net ¥1.41T prior week; Foreign Investors bought net ¥32.6B in Japan stocks last week vs sold net ¥97.0B in prior week - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY10B in 28-day repos (29th consecutive drain); Injects net CNY20B this week v injected CNY120B prior (3rd consecutive week of net injection) - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +3.49M (largest build since April 15th) v 0e, GASOLINE: -1.44M v 0e, DISTILLATE: +820K v +0.5Me - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1705 (weakest setting since Sept 6th) v 6.1694 prior setting

- AUD/USD is the most notable mover among the USD majors after the FY14/15 CAPEX upgrade from Australia that potentially bodes well for a strong Q1 GDP on tap for next week. AUD/USD initially fell 20pips on weaker than expected Q1 print to a low of $0.9210 before rising above $0.9280 session high. NZD/USD consolidated its outsized decline overnight, remaining supported above $0.8470. GBP/USD recovered some lost ground to trade above $1.6720, above 30pips higher from the lows of the late US session.

***Equities*** US markets: - PANW: Reports Q3 $0.11 v $0.10e, R$151M v $146Me; +11.0% afterhours - AAPL: Confirms acquisition of Beats Music for $3B in cash and stock; +0.1% afterhours - GMAN: Reports Q1 -$0.04 (incl items) v $0.02e, R$143M v $142Me; -15.4% afterhours - TLYS: Reports Q1 $0.02 v $0.02e, R$111.1M v $115Me; -23.4% afterhours

- MSFT: Said to be in discussion with Salesforce on cloud partnership - financial press

Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Shiseido 4911.JP +2.4% (new products) - Healthcare: Jointown Pharmaceutical 600998.CN +7.6%, China National Medicines 600511.CN +0.9% (China FDA may allow online sales) - Technology: Inotera Memories Inc 3474.TW +5.6% (guidance); Kingsoft Corp 3888.HK -8.7% (Q1 results); Inspur Electronic Information Industry 000977.CN +6.0% (new campaign) - Industrials: Kawasaki Heavy Industries 7012.JP +0.9% (investment plans) - Materials: Toll Holdings TOL.AU +4.6% (FY14 guidance); Kentor Gold KGL.AU +8.4% (resource update); Sojitz 2768.JP +1.9% (expansion plans) - Energy: Origin Energy ORG.AU +1.7% (production update)

>>> US After Hours

After Hours Summary: PANW +10.6%, PLKI +2.8%, UHAL +0.8%, TLYS -22.5%, GMAN -13.6%, SB -2.5% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: PANW +10.6%, PLKI +2.8%, VTL +2.1%, UHAL +0.8%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ICPT +6.0% (announced that FDA granted Fast Track designation to obeticholic acid for the treatment of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis), RCAP +2.1% (announced proposed public offering of 15 mln shares of Class A common stock; RCAP Holdings, the controlling stockholder of RCAP, proposing to offer and sell 5 mln shares), BCRX +1.8% (priced public offering of 10 mln shares of common stock at $10 per share), EROC +1.4% (announced credit facility amendments and new upstream borrowing base), BBRY +1.4% (Co's CEO said he expects the company to be cash flow positive or breakeven by year-end), JNPR +0.9% (announced settlement of patent litigation with Palo Alto Networks (PANW)), LOCK +0.9% (Okumus Fund Management discloses 8.67% passive stake in 13G filing)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: TLYS -22.5%, GMAN -13.6%, SB -2.5%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: FN -3.7% (announced secondary offering of 3.15 mln shares by selling shareholder), STON -3.6% (announced public offering of 2.6 mln common units), SPHS -2.9% (filed for ~3.409 mln share common stock offering by by Aspire Capital Fund), BAH -1.6% (announced sale of 10 mln shares of common stock by an affiliate of the Caryle Group), CSTE -1.5% (announced offering of 5.5 mln shares by selling shareholder), P -0.8% (down slightly following Apple acquisition of Beats Music & Beats Electronics)

WSJ : U.S. Consumers Languish in the Trap of Luxury

U.S. Consumers Languish in the Trap of Luxury

Companies selling goods to affluent Americans mostly have done better than those selling to the less well-off. But there are limits to their success.

The years since the recession haven't been good to the lower and middle classes. A household at the top of the bottom fifth by income made $20,599 in 2012, according to the Census Bureau. That was 9.7% below what it made in 2006, after adjusting for inflation. Median household income—what people in the middle of the middle class make—fell 7.1% over the same period to $51,017.

With wages growing only slowly, it is unlikely much ground has been made up since 2012. Lower- and middle-class Americans' wealth also was hit harder than the rich, who had less of their assets concentrated in housing.

So it is not a surprise that companies such as Wal-Mart Stores WMT -0.08% and J.C. Penney, JCP -0.79% which cater to consumers with modest incomes, haven't been doing as well as high-end retailer Nordstrom JWN -0.21% and upscale grocery Whole Foods Market. WFM -2.07% Nor is it a shock that investors have clamored for shares of high-end sportswear maker Under Armour UA +0.60% and apparel company Michael Kors Holdings. KORS +1.33%

But although the better-off haven't fared as badly as other Americans, as a group they haven't done all that well either, with income and wealth gains concentrated at the very top. A household at the 95th percentile—one making more than all but the top 5%—made $191,156 in 2012. That was 3.5% lower, in real terms, than what they earned in 2006.

So unless they are focused on the uber-rich, companies selling to higher-income U.S. households have been engaged in a zero-sum game.

That has created an environment in which gaining market share has become paramount—as amply demonstrated by Kors. When the company posted results Wednesday that, once again, beat estimates, one response from investors was to push shares of rival Coach COH -1.33% down by 1.3%. Kors stock rose by the same amount.

There is only so much demand for affordable luxury to go around. At the same time, this is an environment that invites competition, as more companies target those higher-end households. Whole Foods' disappointing results earlier this month came about in part because grocers such as Kroger KR -0.66% are encroaching on its business.

A more serious problem may be that people entering their 30s—the "echo boom" children of baby boomers—bear lasting scars from the recession.

The median income for Americans aged 25 to 34 fell sharply during the downturn. Finding a job has been difficult, and many are burdened by high levels of student debt. This potentially potent consumer force has reached an age at which, in better times, a great many people in it might be trading up to higher quality, pricier goods. But after what they have been through, they may have set their sights lower.

The economy continues to recover, and with the job market improving, perhaps people who aren't in the upper echelon will eventually see their incomes get back to where they were. Until then, the business of selling to American consumers, even the seemingly prosperous, will be very tough.

>>> US Close Dow-0,25% S&P-0,11% Nasdaq-0,28%


Closing Market Summary: Stocks Slip on Light Volume

The stock market endured a quiet session that had the S&P 500 confined to a seven-point range. The benchmark index shed 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) followed not far behind. Small caps, however, saw some additional weakness as the Russell 2000 lost 0.5%.

All in all, it is worth pointing out that today's lack of aggressive selling or buying followed four consecutive advances that sent the S&P 500 higher by 2.1%. Furthermore, there was no concerted leadership as the top-weighted sectors ended the day in the red. On that note, consumer discretionary (-0.1%), financials (-0.3%), health care (-0.3%), and technology (-0.3%) all struggled to keep pace with the S&P 500.

The discretionary sector had the best showing of the four after seeing some volatility among retailers and homebuilders. In the retail space, Brown Shoe (BWS 29.34, +2.90), and Michael Kors (KORS 97.01, +1.27) posted respective gains of 10.8% and 1.3% after beating earnings estimates, while Chico's FAS (CHS 15.14, -0.47) missed estimates. The stock fell 3.0%, while the overall industry group did not fare much better. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 82.93, -0.77) lost 0.9%.

Also of note, homebuilders displayed intraday strength following above-consensus quarterly results from Toll Brothers (TOL 36.38, +0.74). Shares of TOL jumped 2.1%, while the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.03, -0.04) surrendered its modest gain just ahead of the close.

Elsewhere, a pocket of strength among transports allowed the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.7%) to climb to a fresh all-time high. The bellwether complex extended its year-to-date gain to 9.1% and underpinned the industrial sector (+0.1%), which outperformed throughout the session.

Interestingly, the recent strength in the transports has not jived with the economic slowdown argument that has been used to explain the continued strength in Treasuries. The Treasury market rallied once again today with the 10-yr note climbing 21 ticks. As a result, the benchmark 10-yr yield fell eight basis points to 2.44%, ending at levels not seen in nearly a year.

Today's participation marked an improvement over last week, but remained below average as 621 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.

Economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, which fell 1.2% to follow last week's uptick of 0.9%.

Tomorrow, weekly initial claims (consensus 318,000) and the second estimate of Q1 GDP (consensus -0.5%) will be reported at 8:30 ET, while the Pending Home Sales report for April (consensus 1.0%) will be released at 10:00 ET.
  • S&P 500 +3.3% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.3% YTD 
  • Nasdaq Composite +1.2% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 -2.1% YTD

FT : Weir seeks fresh deals after Metso offer is rejected

Weir seeks fresh deals after Metso offer is rejected

The chief executive of Weir Group said it will pursue other acquisition opportunities after the Scottish engineering company’s improved multibillion-dollar bid for Finland’s Metso was again rejected.
Keith Cochrane told the Financial Times on Wednesday it would look at developing its international oil and gas footprint, as well as potential purchases in the mining and power sectors, after giving its attempt at a merger with Metso its “best shot”.

“We felt we put forward a compelling offer to Metso. That was our best shot and now we move on,” Mr Cochrane said. He said the group would pursue a pipeline of large and small opportunities across all three of its divisions.
But Weir may also need to fend off potential acquirers of its own business, according to market observers, who say it may be an attractive target for foreign bids, particularly US shale companies looking to do a reverse takeover to change their tax domicile.
One analyst, who did not want to be named, said the rejection could result in Weir becoming a takeover target. “Some in the market will now naturally ask whether Weir itself becomes vulnerable to a bid, as often happens after a transaction of its own fails,” he said.
The Glasgow-based FTSE 100 company announced on Wednesday it had made a second all-share offer last week to Metso, a leader in rock crushing equipment, valuing the latter at €4.6bn, representing a 13 per cent improvement on its initial offer and a 34 per cent premium to Metso’s share price on March 26, the day before that had been submitted.
It also added a special dividend payable to all shareholders in the combined group equivalent to €2.13 per share, assuming full acceptance of the offer.
But the Metso board rejected the offer, calling it “opportunistic” and one that “significantly undervalues” the company’s prospects.
Metso said Weir was attempting to capitalise on the trough in the mining market, where Metso is a market leader in “comminution” equipment, which crushes rocks.
“We don’t believe the market has valued Metso today in the right manner,” said Mikael Lilius, chairman of the board. “We are at a low in the mining cycle and we believe there is room for upside in our favour.”
Weir also faced continued opposition from Solidium, Finland’s state investment fund and Metso’s second-largest shareholder.
The fund, which owns an 11 per cent stake in Metso, echoed Metso’s views that the company has good opportunities to develop as an independent company. “We’ve done our analysis and we share the view there is significant undervaluing in the proposal,” said Hanna Masala, Solidium’s investment director.
Metso said it would unveil its own strategy for growth in the summer, after spending last year focusing on splitting off from its paper and pulp business.

Mr Cochrane said Weir would consider both large and small acquisitions, but dismissed market speculation that it could make a play for fellow FTSE 100 engineer IMI or Sulzer. “I have no interest whatsoever of creating a fourth leg beyond oil and gas, mining and power,” he said.
Some analysts said Weir was right to walk away. “Weir need to maintain the pretence that they are financially disciplined and if it leaked that they had raised the offer several times without engaging, this position would have been untenable,” said Thomas Rands, analyst at Investec in a note.
If the merger had gone ahead, the combined company would have had a market capitalisation of about £8.5bn.
Weir’s share price closed the day down 0.77 per cent at £25.84.

FT : Berlusconi’s empire faces a tricky future without him

Berlusconi’s empire faces a tricky future without him

One of the bigger losers of last weekend’s European elections was Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi, whose political party suffered its worst defeat in 20 years. The beating has fanned speculation about the 77-year-old former prime minister’s political succession. The same questions should be asked about the Berlusconi family holding company Fininvest, which owns television Mediaset, football team AC Milan, publisher Mondadori, film distributor Medusa and advertising buyer Publitalia.
Mr Berlusconi’s companies have done well over the past few years partly because of a regulatory and business environment tied to his political presence. From 1994 to 2011, during which Mr Berlusconi was prime minister four times, he maintained control of Mediaset, which is Italy’s largest private television network. He gave up executive management of the group years ago and professional managers run the business.

But analysts openly referred to a “Berlusconi premium” enjoyed by Mediaset shares (about 60 per cent of the company is listed) when he was in political office. An academic study published in February this year found a significant pro-Mediaset bias in the allocation of advertising spending during Mr Berlusconi’s political tenure. The authors found companies attempting to curry favour shifted their spending towards his broadcast channels when he held power.
Unluckily for Mediaset and Fininvest, Mr Berlusconi’s political decline has coincided with disruption in the media industry. Mediaset’s model is under pressure from upstarts such as Netflix, while its advertising sales were hit hard during Italy’s deep recession. Complicating the picture, the ageing media mogul has to contend with a dynastic succession to rival his one-time friend and fellow mogul Rupert Murdoch. Fininvest ownership is shared among his five children from two marriages. Marina Berlusconi, 47, his eldest daughter, is chairman of Fininvest, and Barbara Berlusconi, 29, one of two daughters from his second marriage, is executive vice-chairman of AC Milan. They are strikingly different personalities with opposing views about the business, say people who know them.
The composition of Italy’s parliament has not changed as a result of the European vote. Matteo Renzi, prime minister, still has a messy majority and may draw on Mr Berlusconi for support. But even for an investor with a three-year horizon, the political underpinning of the Mediaset fortunes is likely to decline. The populist Five Star Movement, now Italy's second-largest party ahead of Mr Berlusconi's Forza Italia, is also strongly against his media empire.
From an industry perspective, the Berlusconi empire is seeking to adapt its strategy. Its pay-TV business, which was set up to blunt the growth of Mr Murdoch’s Sky Italia, is seeking a partner to help pay for TV rights. Vivendi’s Canal Plus and Al Jazeera are rumoured buyers. But people close to the French group and the Qataris suggest there may be less interest than is being reported in the Italian press. One adviser to the Qatari royal family points out that buying into a television group famous for showing nearly naked showgirls may not be top of their wish list.
AC Milan, the football team that was at the heart of Mr Berlusconi’s populist political propaganda, is on the block for a little shy of $1bn as match day revenues are falling. Mr Berlusconi denied a report in March that Lazard had been instructed to find buyers, but two people familiar with the dossier confirm its existence.
It would be tempting to conflate the Mediaset story with succession questions rife among the other larger-than-life Italian entrepreneurs of Mr Berlusconi’s postwar generation. What will happen at Giorgio Armani, or the Ferrero dynasty behind Nutella and Ferrero Rocher when their octogenarian founders step aside? Who will succeed 89-year-old founder Bernardo Caprotti at supermarket group Esselunga or Joseph Nissim, the nonagenarian consumer goods entrepreneur behind Italian brands Rio Mare tuna, Neutro Roberts soap, Omino Bianco and WC Net detergent and Collistar cosmetics?
But these retail and consumer groups have strong brands that fit the bill for an industrial buyer, sovereign fund or private equity group looking to turn European products into a global business.
Predicting the future for Mr Berlusconi’s empire is trickier. For political and industrial reasons its best years seem behind it. Italy’s most famous businessman has work to do to plan his legacy at a political and corporate level to avoid the maxim of Louis XV of France: “Après moi, le déluge.”

FT : GSK salesmen want ‘bribes’ reimbursed

GSK salesmen want ‘bribes’ reimbursed

GlaxoSmithKline, the UK pharmaceutical company at the centre of a Chinese corruption scandal, is facing protests from junior employees who say the company is refusing to reimburse them for bribes they were ordered to pay by their superiors.
Beijing officials have accused senior employees at GSK’s China subsidiary of orchestrating a “massive and systemic bribery”, while the company was notified earlier this week that Britain’s Serious Fraud Office has opened its own criminal inquiry.
Now some Chinese sales staff are complaining that GSK has denied bonuses, threatened dismissal or refused to reimburse them for bribes they say were sanctioned by their superiors to boost the company’s drug sales. In some cases, managers instructed them to purchase fake receipts that were used to cover up bribes paid in cash or gifts to doctors and hospitals, according to salesmen interviewed by the Financial Times.
In some instances, managers disguised their involvement by using their personal email address to instruct staff to pay bribes and by ordering junior staff to claim on their personal expense accounts – even if the bribe was actually paid out by the manager – according to these people.
In late March, disgruntled staff sent 25 representatives to GSK’s headquarters in Shanghai, where they unfurled a banner that read: “Return my hard-earned money.” The amount owed totals tens of thousands of renminbi for many of the affected employees. Most claims cover the months before Beijing announced it was investigating GSK last July.
”All the expenses were approved by the company,” the group wrote in a letter to management.
“The expenses were paid with our own money, and although the receipts were not compliant, it was our managers who told us to buy the fake receipts,” said one former GSK salesman.
In China, restaurants issue a standardised official receipt for meals and other sales, but there is a brisk business in China of faking such receipts.
GSK has stepped up scrutiny of staff expense claims in China with help from auditors Ernst & Young since the scandal erupted. Staff were instructed to produce bank records to prove that they paid amounts directly to merchants. Those who were unable to do so, or who provided receipts that could not be authenticated by the tax office, were denied reimbursement and their year-end bonuses.
Some staff were warned not to implicate their supervisors, according to a former salesman: “Our manager approached each person before they were questioned and asked them not to mention his name. He even prepared a story for them to tell the investigator.”
GSK said: “We have zero tolerance for unethical or illegal behaviour and anyone who conducts such behaviour has no place in our company. We believe the vast majority of our employees uphold our values and we welcome employees speaking up if they have concerns.”
The company acknowledged in April that a “very small number” of its 7,000 Chinese employees had been dismissed following an audit of expense claims.
“Where we have found potential issues, we have thoroughly reviewed them and have withheld payments and taken disciplinary action including dismissal where appropriate. We are determined to ensure our processes are being properly followed.”
The case has cast a cloud over GSK and caused a sharp sales drop in China – an important growth market for the company. In a bid to repair the damage, Sir Andrew Witty, chief executive, late last year announced an overhaul of marketing practices, including an end to target-based pay for sales representatives.

(Pimco) Europe’s Economy Is Stable, But Is It Healthy?

Europe’s Economy Is Stable, But Is It Healthy?
28 MAY 2014
Developments in Europe continue to make global headlines. Taking a step back, Deputy Chief Investment Officer and head of European portfolio management Andrew Balls outlines PIMCO’s long-term outlook for the world’s largest economic zone, focusing on how low growth and inflation trends and policy responses may shape Europe over the coming three to five years.

Q
What is PIMCO’s secular outlook for Europe?

A
Balls: The central idea in our global secular outlook is for a New Neutral policy rate for central banks, with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate likely to be close to zero percent in real terms, adjusted for inflation, over the next three to five years. Likewise, owing to very high leverage, demographics, fiscal tightening, more constrained credit conditions and – in the case of the eurozone – the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis, policy rates are likely going to remain very low at the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) over the secular horizon. This has broad implications for European markets.

We expect ongoing renormalisation of eurozone markets. Over the coming three to five years, we expect the eurozone to grow at a 1%–1.5% real rate, close to its trend growth rate of about 1.25%, but with some chance of a period of above-trend growth given the improvement in financial conditions. This equates to roughly 3% nominal growth that, while not very strong, should be enough to maintain overall stability and probably permit a very gradual reduction in government debt levels.

There are tail risks, for sure, around this secular baseline, but we see the eurozone as offering a wide range of opportunities for European and global investors alike, both from a top-down, macro-driven approach and from bottom-up security selection across the capital structure