(Exane) Daimler : too soon to sell ?

A Fair Share: Looking beyond the cycle

As Daimler shares edge towards the EUR70 level, is now the right time to head for the exit? We
remain convinced that it’s still too early in either Mercedes’ market share revival or the European
truck cycle to sell now. We stay at Outperform with a target price of EUR80.

* A fair share: Are we still too conservative on Mercedes’ growth potential?
We believe Mercedes is entering a structural growth phase that extends beyond the current
product cycle. Having lost 500bp of global share over the past decade (and 800bp in EU), we
believe a younger customer base, catch-up potential in China and more competitive
product/technology will enable Mercedes to begin to claw back market share. However our (&
consensus) estimates assume a barely flat share through to 2018. Clawing back 50% of lost share
could boost our Mercedes long-term EBIT by c.20%. In the shorter-term, we expect Mercedes
pricing to surprise positively as its takes back the product age crown that BMW has held for the
past 5 years.

* Operating leverage concerns misplaced: Q2 should ease concerns
A strong top-line seems a safe assumption. But what about the drop through to margins? The
bears made much of this at Q1, missing the point that Mercedes already delivered in Q1 nearly
50% of the entire EBIT delta we forecast for the FY in Mercedes. As the C and GLA contribution
kicks in from Q2, we expect a steady uptick in Mercedes margins towards 9% by Q4. Meanwhile
small but significant actions by management in recent months to trim the cost base (e.g. sales
network, RRPSH, EADS) bode well for future capital efficiency in our view.

* Valuation still attracts – we still see 15% upside to our EUR80 TP
That leaves valuation as the final piece of the equation. Here too we are still comfortable with the
Daimler case. At 9.8x P/E 15e and 50% EV/Sales, Daimler trades at a c.10% discount to its historic
average, despite offering up an EPS CAGR of 14% over 2013–16e. And while optically Daimler
trades in line with BMW on EV/Sales, excluding trucks (at a Volvo multiple), we calculate Daimler is
trading at a 20% discount to BMW. We value Daimler at EUR80 on a 2015 SOP.

(BFW) Buy Man, Numeric Holding Deal May Be Turning Point, Panmure Says


Buy Man, Numeric Holding Deal May Be Turning Point, Panmure Says
2014-05-29 07:15:14.210 GMT


By Gaurav Panchal
     May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Man Group could boost profit by
GBP40m if rev. yield was 1% and Numeric Holding made 30%
operating margin, Panmure says after co. confirms it is in talks
about a deal.
**Says acquiring its way out of a tight corner is the right
thing for Man Group to do
**Man Group had excess capital of $1b at Dec. 13 so this would
be paid for in cash: Panmure
  * RBC says transaction would be all-cash, no shares due to
    large cash balance at Man; cash transactions are highly
    accretive
    * This deal would further diversify Man away from AHL, is
      consistent with Man’s strategy to acquire a US-based
      asset manager



For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Gaurav Panchal in London at +44-20-7392-0511 or
gpanchal2@bloomberg.net
Roger Neill

WSJ : Nixed Mergers Slow to Pre-Recession Pace

Nixed Mergers Slow to Pre-Recession Pace

Pfizer Inc.PFE 0.00%’s fizzled mega-offer for British rival AstraZenecaAZN.LN 0.00% PLC aside, canceled deal offers are running at their lowest level since 2006, according to data tracker Dealogic.

Through Wednesday, 284 global deal offers were withdrawn by the prospective acquirer or rejected by the proposed target so far this year, Dealogic said. This puts the number on pace for 700 on the year, which would be roughly in line with the number of unravelings in 2006.

From 1995 through 2013, scuttled and spurned offers have averaged just over 800 per year. The recent peak was 1,441 during the recession six years ago.

From 2008 through 2012, an average of more than 1,200 offers per year failed to come to fruition, before the numbers fell to more in line with the recent historical average last year.

Other recent, high-profile mergers that remain on the table include Apple Inc.’s purchase of high-end headphone maker Beats Electronics LLC, Comcast Corp.CMCSA -0.40%’s pending purchase of Time Warner Cable Inc.TWC -0.21% and AT&T Inc.T +0.37%’s planned takeover of DirecTVDTV -0.54%.

However, in addition to Pfizer’s failed bid for AstraZeneca, Publicis Group SAPUB.FR +0.75% and Omnicom Group Inc.OMC +0.84% called off their merger earlier this month after the management teams couldn’t agree who would run the combined advertising company for the long haul. Meanwhile, General Electric Co.GE +0.34% is trying to convince the French government of the merits of its $17 billion bid for Alstom SAALO.FR +1.06%’s power equipment business.

(BFW) EU Autos Slow Recovery On Track: JPM; Daimler Has Upside: Exane


EU Autos Slow Recovery On Track: JPM; Daimler Has Upside: Exane
2014-05-29 07:06:57.695 GMT


By Brian Lysaght
     May 29 (Bloomberg) -- European auto market recovery is
“slowly materializing,” with discounts stabilizing at high
level in Europe and falling for premium brands in China,
JPMorgan says.
  * Car order index rising slowly in Europe
    * Prefer suppliers (Valeo, Faurecia, Pirelli) to carmakers
    * Daimler to deliver sequential margin improvement next 3
      qtrs; VW is best volume carmaker for recovery: JPM
  * Exane says it’s too early to sell Daimler, shares have 15%
    upside to PT EU80; reiterated outperform
    * 2Q results should ease concerns of bears about margins;
      expect a steady increase in Mercedes margins to 9% by 4Q
    * Trades on 9.8x 2015e P/E, ~10% historic discount

Link to Company News:{JPM US <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{F IM <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{PC IM <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{UG FP <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{RNO FP <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{EO FP <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{FR FP <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{ML FP <Equity> CN <GO>}
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Link to Company News:{F US <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{GM US <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Brian Lysaght at +44-20-7330-7908 or
blysaght@bloomberg.net

(NY Post) Apple’s acquisition of Beats could shake up music biz

Apple’s acquisition of Beats could shake up music biz

Apple’s $3 billion purchase of Beats Electronics could reinvigorate the tech titan — and shake up the music industry by boosting valuations of some companies, one music industry heavyweight told The Post.
The sale of Beats, co-founded by Jimmy Iovine and Dr. Dre, will form “a bridge between Apple and the music industry and help align their interests in getting behind subscription streaming in a big way,” according to Sony Music CEO Doug Morris.
“[Jimmy’s] dream is to take streaming music global and he created an enormously successful company” with Dr. Dre, Morris said in an interview Wednesday after Apple announced its purchase of Beats.
The announcement said both Iovine and Dr. Dre will join Apple’s payroll.
“I hope you are as excited as I am about this new chapter in our history,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a memo to employees.
The memo confirmed The Post’s exclusive story on Tuesday that the deal would come in at $3 billion and be announced this week.
Apple will shell out $2.6 billion cash — with an additional $400 million to vest over time.
“They made Apple look cool,” noted Morris, something even Apple seemed to acknowledge in its release. Apple gave props to the team’s ability to get Beats headphones into the heart of pop culture in under five years, noting that customized versions of the headphones have been created by Lady Gaga, Lil Wayne and Nicki Minaj.
“This is going to cause a lot of excitement and re-evaluation of record companies. It’s a rebirth of the record business,” said Morris, a good friend of Iovine, who first brought the music mogul’s Interscope label to Universal in the 1980s.
“I realized [Jimmy] is one of a few special people and gave him the opportunity, and that’s where Beats came from,” added Morris commenting on his friendship. “He’s now my richest friend.”
Iovine was one of the original supporters of Apple’s iTunes store and was friendly with the late Apple founder Steve Jobs.
Iovine, 61, is the chairman of Universal Music Group’s Interscope Geffen A&M.
After Morris led Universal’s investment in Beats, it was retained and nurtured by UMG Chairman and CEO Lucian Grainge through a variety of possible buy-out scenarios from HTC and Sony Electronics, among others.
“Based on mutual trust and respect, UMG’s singular relationship with Jimmy permitted his innovation to flourish in all these ways,” Grainge said in a statement.
Iovine, who held a 25 percent stake in Beats, is now worth $970 million, according to Forbes. Dr. Dre is worth up to $800 million.

>>> What to look a today - 29/05/2014

US Market Closed Slightly lower on light volume with 621mil shares, Retail was in focus after, Brown Shoe (BWS 29.34, +2.90), and Michael Kors (KORS 97.01, +1.27) posted respective gains of 10.8% and 1.3% after beating earnings estimates, whileChico's FAS (CHS 15.14, -0.47) missed estimates. The stock fell 3.0%, while the overall industry group did not fare much better. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 82.93, -0.77) lost 0.9%, homebuilders displayed intraday strength following above-consensus quarterly results from Toll Brothers (TOL 36.38, +0.74). Shares of TOL jumped 2.1%, while the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.03, -0.04) surrendered its modest gain just ahead of the close...Japan retail sales registered their biggest annual decline in over 3 years, as both m/m and y/y figures missed estimates. Note that this is the first reporting month of data since consumption tax went up to 8% from 5% on April 1st. Former BOJ Dissenter (Shirai) said confident central bank to achieve its inflation target in next 2y, easing will continue FY15/16...Nikkei +0.01% HS+0.25% Shanghai -0.18%


Eur$ 1.3602 S&P Fut +0.10% European Fut. Unch FTSE +0.13% CAC+0.02%

Macro
- European Companies Scale Back China Expansion Plans, Group Says
- Almost One-Third of World’s Population Is Overweight {NSN N6ARUR6S972H <go>}

Keep an eye on :
- AGK LN : Aggreko Names Centrica's British Gas Head Chris Weston as CEO
- AZA IM : Etihad Board Approves Deal With Alitalia, Messaggero Reports
- BKIA SM : Fortress to Bid For Bankia, FCC Stake in Realia, Expansion Says
- BKIA SM : Spain Prepares to Sell Further 11% of Bankia, Confidencial Says
- CNA LN : Centrica International’s Weston in Talks to Leave, in Advanced Talks to Name Conn CEO: Sky News
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Preparing for Fines in Forex Probe: Reuters
- DTE GY : Softbank CEO talking about acquisition - SPrint bit for T-Mobile is still on the play
- KGF LN : Kingfisher 1Q Retail Profit GBP142m; Est. GBP152m
- EMG LN : Man Group Says in Talks to Buy Numeric Holdings
- NOVN VX : Italy Confirms Seeking EU1.2B Damages From Roche, Novartis Denies Allegations of Italy Anti-Competitive Practice
- PAH3 GY : Porsche Checks for Potential Flaws in Macan Brake Boosters
- PRS SM : Prisa Says Rights on New Class A Shrs to Start Trading May 31
- REP SM : Repsol to Pay Extraordinary Dividend in Cash on June 6
- RLIA SM : Realia to receive offer from Fortress
- ROG VX : Italy Confirms Seeking EU1.2B Damages From Roche, Novartis, Roche Disagrees With Italian Demand for Damages
- UBI FP : Ubisoft Says Watch Dogs Sets Co. Record for First-Day Sales
- UBSN VX : UBS May Assess Acquisition Opportunities in Wealth Management
- VOD LN : Softbank Corp CEO: Softbank needs to gain more scale and does want to buy another company - Recode conf- Consumers in the US paying 10x more for broadband, despite 10x slower speeds than Japan - Vodafone was mentionned as a target
- YOOX IM : Yoox Stays a Most Favored Italian Stock Despite Drop, High P/E

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades

>>> Up
*IMI RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*NORILSK NICKEL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*NUMERICABLE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*REN RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*THOMAS COOK RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*UNIQA INSURANCE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN

>>> Down
*COMMERZBANK CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE
*CREDIT SUISSE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT BOFAML
*EDP CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*ELEKTA CUT FROM CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN, STILL BUY
*ENDESA CUT TO SELL VS BUY AT CITI
*ENEL CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*FIAT CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT SANFORD BERNSTEIN
*LAGARDERE CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*NATIONAL GRID CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*PORTUGAL TELECOM CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*RENAULT CUT TO MARKET PERFORM AT SANFORD BERNSTEIN
*VTB CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCGEN

>>> PT Changes
*ENI SPA GIVEN NEW PT OF EU16.80 AT JEFFERIES
*TOTAL SA GIVEN NEW PT OF EU49 AT JEFFERIES
*Vontobel PT Cut to CHF35 at Mediobanca; Kept at Neutral

>>> Initiation
*AMEC RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG; PT 1,450P
*ENI RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*GENESIS ENERGY RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*HENDERSON RESUMED OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY, PT 280P
*METSO RESUMED NEUTRAL AT BOFAML, PT EU30
*TOTAL SA RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*WEIR GROUP RESUMED BUY AT BOFAML, PT 2,850P
*WOOD GROUP RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG; PT 714P

>>> Call
>> Stock
*TALKTALK REMOVED FROM UBS’S LEAST PREFERRED LIST

FT : Apple tries to ‘think different’ with music deal

Apple tries to ‘think different’ with music deal
Even with its first multibillion-dollar acquisition, Apple is trying to “think different”.
At a time when its Silicon Valley neighbours are throwing billions of dollars at start-ups with minimal revenues, such as WhatsApp Messenger, Oculus VR and Nest, Apple believes its $3bn purchase of Beats will soon boost its earnings, rather than drag on profits.

“Bizarrely maybe, because you haven’t heard a technology CEO say this in a long time, we believe it’s accretive in the fiscal year 15,” said Tim Cook, Apple chief executive, in an interview at its Cupertino headquarters on Wednesday.
Analysts have said Apple is overpaying for a music streaming service that has only 250,000 subscribers, but Mr Cook insists that the deal makes financial sense on the basis of sales of its premium-priced headphones alone.
Beats’ headphones generated $1.1bn in revenues last year and grew by another 30 per cent in the first quarter of 2014, he said. For now, most of those sales are in the US, while two-thirds of Apple’s business is overseas.
“So there is a natural synergy there from a geographic point of view,” Mr Cook said, including taking its nascent music streaming service abroad.
“There are of course all kinds of synergies in some of the product things that we can work on together . . . Over time we are hitting the gas.”
That answers just some of the many questions raised about the deal since the FT first reported it this month.
Benedict Evans, partner at Andreessen Horowitz, said in a tweet the transaction marked a return to Apple’s unpredictable ways. “The Beats deal is totally in character for Apple: everyone is puzzled.”
Despite the hoped-for financial lift from the headphones business, Mr Cook said Apple’s motivation for buying Beats lay in its music streaming service, and the people behind it.
“What Apple gets in Beats is incredible talent, people who understand music deeply,” Mr Cook said. Playlists are curated by celebrities rather than automatically generated by algorithms, as they are in services such as Pandora and Spotify. “Technology by itself won’t produce the deep feeling that people need in music.”
Tech blog: Rap and commerce bring out the best in capitalism

Lil'Wayne wearing Dr. Dre and Drake
Apple’s acquisition of Beats by Dr Dre reminds us that, tech schmeck, business became hip because of hip-hop, writes Gautam Malkani.
But Beats will also see Apple break with a longstanding tradition that its own apps and services are available only on its iPhones, iPads and Macs. Beats Music will remain available for Google’s rival Android smartphone and Microsoft’s Windows Phone.
“Yes we are going to be cross platform,” [with Beats Music] Mr Cook said. “We want everyone to enjoy music.”
Apple made iTunes available for Windows PCs soon after the iPod launched, but Android and Windows users cannot access Apple’s flagship music app on their mobile devices today.
“We’ve never had a religious issue against having a product on a different platform,” Mr Cook said. “It hasn’t been a priority. It became one with iTunes because we recognised that for iTunes to achieve its ultimate objectives it needed to be cross platform. That’s much the same case now with a subscription service.”
Many have questioned why Apple could not build its own streaming service, especially after launching iTunes Radio last year. But some digital music industry insiders say that Apple was forced to make a rapid move to catch up after global music download sales declined in 2013 for the first time in a decade.
“The fact that download numbers declined at all freaked out the music industry, right on the heels of the launch of iTunes Radio,” one digital music executive said.
However, Mr Cook said that the decline of downloads had been “way overstated”. “I suspect the download business will be big for a long, long time,” he said.
Right now we are focused on music. But these guys bring us incredible skills. We have always wanted to pull the thread [in the TV market] to see where it takes us
- Tim Cook
Despite the focus Apple put on music, some see a longer-term vision behind the Beats deal.
“This is not just about music,” said Ben Bajarin, analyst at Creative Strategies. “Beats was going after the entire entertainment landscape and their goal was to own subscription services across the board.”
With Beats co-founder and industry veteran Jimmy Iovine on its team, Apple may be able to regain that “reality distortion field” that its late co-founder Steve Jobs was able to use to such advantage with the music industry.
Apple has already seen success through exclusive content deals with artists such as Beyoncé, and Mr Cook is betting that Mr Iovine will be able to land many more.
Mr Cook did not rule out using the Beats team to help build out its video service. “It’s not something we are talking about today,” he said. “Right now we are focused on music. But these guys bring us incredible skills. We have always wanted to pull the thread [in the TV market] to see where it takes us.”
As for Dr Dre, who along with Mr Iovine is now Apple’s newest employee, the deal is “a great opportunity . . . to create something amazing. I can’t wait to get started.”

FT : Retail sales fall as Japan tax rise bites

Retail sales fall as Japan tax rise bites

Retail sales in Japan fell at a record pace in April, after the government pushed ahead with the first consumption tax rise in 17 years to repair its tattered finances.
Preliminary figures released on Thursday by the ministry of economy, industry and trade showed that sales by retailers in April dropped 13.7 per cent from the previous month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, after the tax was lifted from 5 per cent to 8 per cent on April 1. That marked a high in records dating back to 2000, topping an 8.4 per cent fall in the aftermath of the March 2011 earthquake.

However, the fall came after a 6.4 per cent jump in March – also a record – as shoppers brought forward purchases to avoid the higher tax. Average sales over March and April were still up 0.9 per cent from the average in the fourth quarter last year, noted Masamichi Adachi, economist at JPMorgan.
“We do not think the Bank of Japan and the government will take this reading as a decisive sign of weakness,” he said.
Analysts say that economic data for the July to September quarter will provide a better guide for the government as it decides whether to press ahead with a second increase in consumption tax, to 10 per cent, effective in October 2015.
That decision is expected in the autumn.
In the hours after the data were announced the yen strengthened against the dollar, suggesting that traders were pushing back expectations for further easing action from the BoJ, while stocks were flat.
The fiscal squeeze comes amid a concerted effort by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to banish deflation from the world’s third-largest economy, through aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus. Since Mr Abe took the helm at the tail-end of 2012, Japan has recorded six consecutive quarters of nominal growth – something it had not managed for the previous two decades.
Meanwhile, a steep rise in corporate profits caused mainly by the weaker yen has boosted tax receipts, causing markets to take a more sanguine view of Japan’s huge government debt burden, equivalent to more than twice gross domestic product. The price of protecting Japan’s five-year debt against default has more than halved under “Abenomics”.
Institutions such as the IMF and the OECD have warned, however, that the two-stage tax rise is just one of many measures that Japan needs to take to hit its target of eradicating its primary deficit – the gap between revenues and spending, excluding debt-service payments – by 2020.
In coming weeks a council led by Tokyo University professor Hiroshi Yoshikawa will report on ways to trim social-security costs – recommendations that are expected to feed into the second round of the government’s growth strategy, due by the end of June.
As expected, big-ticket items bore the brunt of the fall in demand in April, with sales of cars and machinery falling 10 per cent and 12 per cent from a year earlier.