WSJ : Will Investors Give Issuers the Cold Shoulder Next Week?

Spain, which has been enjoying it’s time in the sun as an issuer, might be about to find February gets distinctly chillier.

The country has been one of the main success stories of the government bond markets so far this year. But demand for its paper may be tested next week given a lack of available cash from redeeming bonds in the euro zone next month.

Spain will be joined by Austria, Germany and France in offering a total around €18 billion ($24.5 billion) in government bonds next week. However, unlike in January when cash returned to investors was very generous, there’s not a cent of cash due via redemptions in the whole of February, according to Citigroup data.

And while debt sales in the euro zone have been relatively smooth so far this year, this lack of liquidity in February has the potential to cause ructions, especially after a series of Spanish and Italian debt sales at record low levels in January.

“We see risks for a setback in coming weeks when huge backflows to investors dry up,” said Christoph Rieger, head of interest rate strategy at Commerzbank.

That said, debt issuance from the euro zone’s peripheral countries has proved immune to the emerging markets woes, and Mr. Rieger argues the near-term uncertainty could lead to flows out of emerging markets into the euro zone.

All of next week’s bond issuance will take place before the European Central Bank’s next rate-setting meeting on Feb. 6, where no change is expected either in the policy rates or in the dovish tone.

Austria will kick off next week’s bond issuance, offering €1.21 billion of the October 2018 and January 2062 bonds Tuesday. Germany will follow on Wednesday with a €4 billion offer of its February 2019-dated Bobl, or federal note, which carries a 1% coupon, or annual interest payment.

On Thursday, Spain will offer the 2.10% April 2017 and 2.75% April 2019-dated bonds for a target volume to be announced Monday. On the same day France will offer €7 billion to €8 billion of the 2.25% May 2024, 2.75% October 2027 and 5.75% October 2032-dated bonds, known as OATs.

>>> Goldman Sachs pioneers plan to deal with bonus cap

Goldman Sachs pioneers plan to deal with bonus cap

Goldman Sachs is pioneering a new type of financial innovation: European compensation structures.
Goldman has gained approval from UK regulators for a complex pay structure, according to people familiar with the matter, putting it ahead of rivals still scrambling to deal with a new European Union bonus cap. UK-based staff are being told about the details of this year's pay structure but the information isn't public yet.
The EU rules, which kicked in January 1, restrict banks operating in the bloc from paying bonuses of more than twice an employee's fixed pay—and payouts of more than 100% require shareholder approval. European lawmakers want an end to boom-era pay structures with big variable bonuses, which they believe encouraged reckless risk taking.
Banks are now rushing to find ways to maintain overall levels of compensation. With bonuses limited to a small multiple of salaries and banks unwilling to greatly increase their fixed costs, many firms—including Goldman—are hoping to bridge the gap by introducing role-based allowances.
These are likely to be set at the start of the year and paid in monthly instalments, according to pay experts. They won't be performance-related but can vary depending on economic conditions.
Allowances won't count toward pension contributions but, crucially, will count as fixed pay in bonus calculations—essentially giving banks a partial way around the bonus cap.
Other banks are still fine-tuning their pay structures. Lawyers and compensation consultants say many are uncertain about which staff are covered by the new rules. And European countries are giving different guidance about how the rules work.
The issue was a popular source of griping among senior bank executives at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week. Figuring out how to comply with the new pay rules "is a very complicated task," said Sergio Ermotti, chief executive of UBS, which has a major investment-banking operation in London. "I see no winners out of this other than a big incentive for businesses to relocate people to New York or Asia... You don't have a lot of job creation in an environment like that."
Mark Mansell, a partner at law firm Allen & Overy, says banks intend to keep overall remuneration at the same level as before the cap was introduced but are still working out the exact effect of the new regulations. He said that for most banks, "the proposals are still very much in the development stage."
The European Banking Authority's guidelines on the new rules were only released in December and haven't yet been signed into law. That is theoretically supposed to happen by the end of March, lawyers say.
Mansell said some banks are waiting to see what other banks do and how regulators and the media receive their pay structures. US banks, however, are "not willing to allow the European tail to wag the whole dog," he added.
The average bonus for UK-based bankers earning more than €1 million ($1.4 million) was equivalent to 370% of fixed pay in 2012, according to EBA data.
Banks are rolling out different approaches in various parts of Europe.
The British government is suing in a European court to invalidate the bonus cap. Reflecting the government's dislike for the rules, UK regulators are taking a more liberal view as to what constitutes legitimate pay structures, according to industry executives. "Because of the UK's general unhappiness with the bonus cap, the [regulator] may be more accommodating," said Jon Gilligan, a partner at GQ Employment Law in London.
But in continental Europe, policy makers—and the banks––generally are adopting a more conservative stance.
"We are not going to play games" by introducing newfangled pay structures to mitigate the impact of the rules, said a top executive at a French bank, which is sticking with a traditional salary-and-bonus model.
Some countries are going even further than the EU rules. The Dutch government plans to introduce a bonus cap of 20% of fixed salaries for Netherlands-based bankers, in what is likely to be one of the strictest pay regimes in the EU.
A top executive at a US investment bank with big operations in the UK and on the continent said that London bankers and traders will probably end up getting paid more than similarly ranked employees in cities like Frankfurt. The executive said that will probably make his continental employees more likely to defect to hedge funds and private equity firms whose pay isn't restricted.
Regardless of the structure, nobody thinks the industry's overall pay levels will decline much--at least not in London's financial hub, which in 2012 was home to more than three times as many bank employees making more than €1 million a year than the rest of the EU combined.
Backers of the bonus cap say reducing overall pay levels wasn't their goal. Instead it was to make sure pay structures didn't encourage short-term risk-taking, said Arlene McCarthy, a British member of the European Parliament who helped draft the rules.
"I don't give a s--- what they're paid frankly," she said.

>>> Chevron misses by $0.01, misses on revs

Chevron misses by $0.01, misses on revs

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.57 per share, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $2.58; revenues fell 99.9% year/year to $56.2 mln vs the $71.26 bln consensus.

Global crude oil prices and refining margins were generally lower in 2013 than 2012," said Chairman and CEO John Watson. "These conditions, as well as lower gains on asset sales and higher expenses, resulted in lower earnings. We continue to have an advantaged portfolio, and we have maintained our industry-leading position in upstream earnings per barrel for the past four years."

Upstream:
Worldwide net oil-equivalent production was 2.58 mln barrels per day in the fourth quarter 2013, down from 2.67 mln barrels per day in the 2012 fourth quarter. Production increases from project ramp-ups in the United States and Nigeria were more than offset by normal field declines and lower cost recovery volumes.

Downstream:
U.S. downstream operations earned $265 mln in the fourth quarter 2013 compared with earnings of $331 mln a year earlier. The decrease was mainly due to higher operating expenses reflecting repair and maintenance activity at company refineries and lower margins on refined product sales, partially offset by higher gains on asset sales.

International downstream:
International downstream operations earned $125 mln in the fourth quarter 2013 compared with $594 mln a year earlier. Current quarter earnings decreased due to lower gains on asset sales, lower margins on refined product sales, an unfavorable change in price effects on derivative instruments and higher income tax expenses. Foreign currency effects decreased earnings by $96 mln and $97 mln in the 2013 and 2012 periods, respectively.

>>> Wynn Resorts: 4Q beat on high Hold, estimates up marginally

Wynn Resorts: 4Q beat on high Hold, estimates up marginally - FBR Capital (201.51)
FBR Capital notes that while WYNN exceeded expectations on headline numbers, upside looks to be a function of high table hold. Normalizing for hold, EBITDA would have been below their estimate. To be fair, Wynn performed well in Macau when they considered its relatively disadvantaged position on the peninsula and weighting to VIP. That was, however, captured in estimates, and they see nothing to get excited about in 4Q. Looking forward, they take their estimates up slightly but remain on the sidelines given what they see as a full valuation and generally aggressive Macau market expectations.

WYNN is +3%

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ZNGA +18.5% (also plans to acquire NaturalMotion; accretive to non-GAAP earnings and generate bookings in the range of $70 to $80 mln and adj EBITDA of $15 to $25 million in 2014, upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Janney), CMG +11.8% (also target raised to $650 at RBC Capital Mkts following Q4 ), CORT +11.3%, UIS +9.1%, IMGN +8.8%,MTW +8.4%, CPHD +8.3%, ARAY +8.2%, PFPT +8.1%, JDSU +6.5%, (also upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at William Blair), AZPN +5.8%, TUES +5.3% (light volume), TSN +4.7%, (ticking higher), WYNN +3.7%, N +3.6%, GOOG +3.6% (also tgt raised to $1310 from $1220 at Deutsche Bank, target raised to $1400 from $1300 at RBC Capital Mkts), WYNN +2.9%, EMN +2.7%,ALV +2.5%, LYB +2.5%, NOV +1.8%, BT +1.7%, ABBV +1.7%, (completes Phase III program of an all-oral, interferon-free therapy for the treatment of hepatitis C genotype 1; Ninety-nine percent SVR(12) rates with and without ribavirin in certain patient types; co expects U.S. launch in 2014), CSC +1.5%, SPG +1.1%, BRCM +1%, ALGN +0.4%.

A few gold/silver stocks trading higher: AEM +1.8%, HMY +1.1%, ABX +0.9%, GDX +0.7%.

Other news: SZYM +17.7% ( announces U.S. commercial production of renewable algal oils at Iowa facilities), BLDP +10.7% ( to supply fuel cell modules to Solaris for zero emission bus deployments in Europe), PGNX +5.8% (continuation of late move higher), CTB +4.6% (reaches agreement with Chengshan Group and the CCT labor union establishing a path forward for the Cooper Chengshan (Shandong) Tire JV), VRNG +3.7% (may be GOOG related strength), NVO +3.3% (following yesterday's earnings), NQ +3.1% (Kylin Management discloses 6.2% passive stake in 13G filing), TEX +1.7% (following MTW results), BWLD +1.2% (following CMG results), UGI +0.5% (Announces Share Repurchase Authorization of up to 10 million shares of the Company's common stock), .

Analyst comments: CTXS +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura ), ESI +1.2% (upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley ), PHM +0.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James), NFLX +0.2% ( upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> Wal-Mart Stores Inc Guides Q4 lower at slightly below the low end


Wal-Mart Stores Inc Guides Q4 lower at slightly below the low end of range of $1.60-1.70 v $1.65e; FY14 at or slightly below the low end of our range of $5.11 to $5.21 v $5.16e
- Prior: company had provided fourth quarter diluted earnings per share from continuing operations (EPS) guidance of $1.50 to $1.60, which included a $0.10 per share impact from two discrete items, which resulted in an underlying1 EPS guidance range of $1.60 to $1.70. For the full year, the company expected to deliver EPS of $5.01 to $5.11 and accounting for the $0.10 of discrete items, the range for underlying EPS was between $5.11 and $5.21.


- For the 14-week period ending Jan. 31, 2014, we expect both Walmart U.S. and Sams Club comp store sales, without fuel, to be slightly negative to the guidance provided in our third quarter report,
- Walmart U.S. guidance on Nov. 14 was for comp sales to be relatively flat, and Sams expected comps, without fuel, to be between flat and 2 percent.

- Two factors contributed to lower comp sales performance for the 14-week period for Walmart U.S: >- First, the sales impact from the reduction in SNAP (the U.S. government Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefits that went into effect Nov. 1 is greater than we expected.
-Second, eight named winter storms resulted in store closures that impacted traffic throughout the quarter.

>>> Daimler is open to further Renault-Nissan cooperation; projects with Tesla


Daimler is open to further Renault-Nissan cooperation; projects with Tesla

MUNICH (Reuters) -- Daimler is open to broadening its cooperation with partners Renault and Nissan to include other car segments and to new projects with electric carmaker Tesla Motors, CEO Dieter Zetsche said.

Zetsche said his company's tie-up with Renault for the new-generation Renault Twingo and Smart minicars could be widened. The partnership does not have to be limited to one product and one segment. "Others could be possible," including compact cars, he said.

Zetsche also spoke of the potential for working with Nissan's premium brand Infiniti. "In relation to Infiniti, we have a much broader base to start with our new MFA platform," he said.

The Mercedes MFA (modular front wheel architecture) is used by Mercedes to underpin cars such as the A- and B-class models and the CLA. Infiniti will use the platform for its new Q30 compact car.

Zetsche said Daimler also would be open to sharing factory capacity with Renault-Nissan for compact cars, if an opportunity arose. "Mid-term or long-term -- based on further ideas for this segment -- we think that an addition of capacity is very likely, most likely necessary. And then there is the discussion where to locate that," Zetsche said. He said North America was a possibility.

Zetsche was speaking at an event in Munich to launch the Mercedes V-class van in Munich.

Tesla, Aston Martin cooperation

He also reiterated that Daimler is open to cooperating with Tesla. "Their project leader was a former member of our team, so we have a lot of very good links, a very constructive good relationship, which certainly has room for further expansion," Zetsche said.

Zetsche said Daimler also would be open to sharing its GL offroader platform with Aston Martin. That would depend on Aston's product plans, he said.

>>> Tyson Foods beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; sees overall domestic prot

Tyson Foods beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; sees overall domestic protein production up ~1%

Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $0.72 per share, $0.09 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.63; revenues rose 4.7% year/year to $8.76 bln vs the $8.72 bln consensus; co repurchased 4.6 mln shares for $150 mln.

In FY14, we expect overall domestic protein production (chicken, beef, pork and turkey) to increase ~1% from fiscal 2013 levels. Grain supplies are expected to increase in fiscal 2014, which should result in lower input costs.

Chicken -- We expect domestic chicken production to increase around 3% in fiscal 2014 compared to fiscal 2013. Based on current futures prices, we expect lower feed costs in fiscal 2014 compared to fiscal 2013 of ~$600 million. Many of our sales contracts are formula based or shorter-term in nature, but there may be a lag time for price changes to take effect. Due to the relative value of chicken compared to other proteins, we believe demand will remain strong in fiscal 2014. We believe our Chicken segment will be in or above its normalized range of 5.0%-7.0% for fiscal 2014.

Beef -- We expect to see a reduction of industry fed cattle supplies of 2-3% in fiscal 2014 as compared to fiscal 2013. Although we generally expect adequate supplies in regions we operate our plants, there may be periods of imbalance of fed cattle supply and demand. For fiscal 2014, we believe our Beef segment's profitability will be similar to fiscal 2013, but could be below its normalized range of 2.5%-4.5%.

>>> Natl Oilwell Varco beats by $0.17, beats on revs

Natl Oilwell Varco beats by $0.17, beats on revs

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.56 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.17 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.39; revenues rose 8.6% year/year to $6.17 bln vs the $5.84 bln consensus.
Additional metrics:
  • Operating profit flow-through, or the change in operating profit divided by the change in revenue, was 25% from the third quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2013, and was 4% from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013, excluding transaction charges from all periods.
  • The Company's fourth quarter 2013 results included a record $1.5 bln in cash flow from operations, 50% greater than the previous record set in the third quarter of 2013.
  • Backlog for capital equipment orders for the Company's Rig Technology segment at December 31, 2013 was a record at $16.24 bln, up seven% from the third quarter of 2013 and up 37% from the end of the fourth quarter of 2012.
  • New orders during the quarter were $3.61 bln, reflecting continued strong demand for oilfield equipment.
Outlook: "...As we enter 2014, we recognize that there remain headwinds facing us in the North American land market. However, we are excited to be entering the year with strong financial resources, a very solid backlog, and an experienced group of employees at NOV that remains committed to delivering the highest quality of products and services to our customers. We are also excited about the upcoming spin-off of NOV's distribution business from the remainder of the Company in 2014, which we believe will enable the distribution business and the remainder of NOV to have the enhanced operational flexibility to focus on their specific products, services and customers."

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: BLDP +17.3%, PFPT +16.3%, SZYM +15.1%, ZNGA +14.9%, CMG +12.6%, UIS +12.4%, CPHD +10.2%, CORT +8.6%, NE +8.4%, MTW +8.4%, PGNX +5.8%, AZPN +5.8%, ARAY +5.5%, TUES +5.3%, JDSU +5.3%, WYNN +3.7%, N +3.6%, EMN +3.3%, GOOG +3.2%, NQ +3.1%, SIMG +2.7%, TEX +1.7%, BT +1.7%, MA +1.5%, CSC +1.5%, SPG +1.1%, ALV +0.7%,NFLX +0.6%

Gapping down: DLLR -22.8%, HGR -13%, LTRX -11.3%, GDOT -11.1%, TNP -10.4%, ABAX -9.3%, CYTR -7.3%, PRAN -6.7%, MAT -6.5%, TXTR -5.4%, AMZN -5%, TISA -4.8%, BCOV -3.5%, CTCT -3.5%, MCC -3.4%, LF -3.4%, CB -3.2%, VR -3.1%, SXE -3%, ARMH -3%, CNI -3%, RBS -2.9%, RVBD -2.9%, SAN -2.4%, AV -2.3%, TOT -2.1%, FSLR -1.9%, MT -1.8%, RDS.A -1.8%,BUD -1.7%, AU -1.7%, BHP -1.6%, SAP -1.6%, BBL -1.5%, BAC -1.5%, WFC -1.4%, MCK -1.3%, BP -1.1%, XPO -0.9%