IMF's Moghadan: Europe has much work to do to ensure foundation for stability and growth
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KPN Falls; America Movil Now Holds 27.1% Stake 2014-02-12 08:29:02.944 GMT
By Sam Chambers Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- KPN falls as much as 4.3% vs Stoxx 600 telcos -0.2%, with volume reaching 73% of its 3-month daily avg in first 27 mins trading. * In its annual report, America Movil discloses 27.1% stake in KPN. Filing here * As of Aug. 2013, AMX held 29.7% stake in KPN, according to Bloomberg data. Holders here * NOTE: Under Dutch takeover law, companies must make full takeover offer when they surpass a 30% stake in a co. * NOTE: KPN said it expects AMX to retain its stake after takeover snub * NOTE: KPN downside limited by potential of renewed AMX bid: Citi
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Omnicom-Publicis Merger Offers 17% Return Over 5 Yrs: Barclays 2014-02-12 08:21:06.865 GMT
By Blanche Gatt Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Omnicom-Publicis merger cost savings, tax synergies to deliver very attractive 17% total shareholder return for investors over next 5 years, though no rev. benefits, Barclays says in note. * Barclays sees Publicis Omnicom Group (POG) generating 14% EPS expansion 2013-2018, with 3% avg. div. yield; attractive for shareholders of both cos * Reiterates overweight on Omnicom, PT $85 * Omnicom reported 4Q yday; stock closed down 1.6% * Publicis reports 4Q on tomorrow; preview here * Stock down 1% today after gaining 1.1% yday * NOTE yday: Publicis Shares Reach 14-Year High as Omnicom Beats Ests.
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To contact the reporter on this story: Blanche Gatt in London at +44-20-7392-0351 or bgatt@bloomberg.net
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Wolseley plc To acquire Puukeskus in Finland
- Has agreed to acquire Puukeskus, a building materials distribution business in Finland with 23 branches, from funds advised by Triton along with a portfolio of freehold properties used by the business. Puukeskus generated revenue of £190 million and trading profit of approximately £4 million in the year ended 31 December 2013. On completion approximately 400 employees will join the Group and the business will be integrated with Wolseley's Starkki business in Finland which has 22 branches. Completion is subject to receiving the appropriate clearance from the Finnish Competition Commission.
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Actelion Buy Repeated at Vontobel; Big Pharma May Be Interested 2014-02-12 07:59:42.465 GMT
By James Ludden Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Opsumit progress prompts Vontobel to repeat buy rating, confirm peak sales forecast of CHF2.5b. * Actelion may attract interest again from “big pharma,” as co.’s long-term value is secured: Vontobel * Today: Actelion’s Opsumit May Face Study Comparing Gilead’s Letairis
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To contact the reporter on this story: James Ludden in London at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at +44-20-7073-3722 or arummer@bloomberg.net
China notches record imports of key commodities
Fresh credit lines in the first month of the year combined with restocking ahead of the long Chinese New Year holiday drove up Chinese imports of oil and some key commodities to record highs in January.
Imports of crude oil, copper and iron ore are often watched for insight into the strength of the Chinese economy, but the western and Chinese New Year holidays often distort data in the month in which they fall.
January’s records do not necessarily portend strong imports for the coming months, although iron ore is expected to continue to flow in.
Imports of unwrought copper hit a record high of 536,000 tonnes, Chinese customs data showed on Wednesday, up 21 pct from the month before as buyers who had used up their credit lines at the end of 2013 restocked.
In addition to manufacturers of copper products, copper importers include real estate developers and other credit-starved industries that open lines of credit to import copper then sell the metal in domestic markets to raise cash.
Crude oil imports hit a fresh record of 6.65m barrels a day, reflecting the start-up of new refineries in the provinces of Fujian and Sichuan. A new strategic petroleum reserve due to begin operations may also have boosted imports, said Barclay’s analyst Sijin Cheng.
Iron ore imports reached a record 86.8m tonnes, a 22 per cent rise on the previous month, as producers in Australia and Brazil pushed more of the steel-making commodity into China.
This helped to push down iron prices as inventories built at Chinese ports. According to Shanghai-based consultancy Steelhome, iron ore stocks at major Chinese ports now stand at a near-record 97.25m tonnes.
Benchmark iron ore prices as assessed by the Steel Index have fallen from $135 a tonne at the start of the year to $120 earlier this week.
Citi analyst Ivan Szpakowsk said exports from Australia and Brazil were likely to fall in February because of adverse weather conditions that had hit production there.
Unexpectedly strong Chinese steel production – which peaked at 2.2m tonnes a day in May – helped boost iron ore imports over the past year. Steel output has since dropped to about 2m tonnes a day as of mid-January and seaborne iron ore prices have also softened to six-month lows.
But high-grade imports are likely to continue to see strong demand from Chinese mills, displacing low-grade and relatively expensive domestic ore.
Japan PM Abe: Up to BOJ on deciding specific monetary policies; BOJ should take appropriate policy decision and take account of risks to economy and prices
- It is BOJ's responsibility to design exit strategy from current easing policy.
Still positive but removing from Focus List — We update our forecasts to reflect
the disposal of Dermagraft, resulting in 2014-19E EPS upgrades of 2-6% and a
CAGR of 11% (sector on 13x 2015E PE offering 10%). Our new PT of £36 is based
on the mid-point of our 2015E PE valuation of 15x and our DCF valuation of £39
(WACC 7.5%, g=0%). Shire has outperformed significantly over the last six months.
With deal flow now a more important driver of further outperformance, and
competitive/patent/execution risks to consider, we remove Shire, and add Roche, to
Citi’s Focus List. Our other preferred names include Novo Nordisk, Novartis, and
BMS/PFE in the US. With this note we transfer coverage to Peter Verdult.
* Adding Roche — We believe Roche (ROG.VX; SFr255.60; 1) will be one of the
key beneficiaries in the developing immunotherapy opportunity. Roche pipeline
provides sufficient optionality to offset concerns about 1) future competitive risks to
Avastin, 2) pricing risk from biosimilars, 3) competition for Rituxan in from several
new agents under development. We continue to think that Roche will utilise its
strong balance sheet to diversify away from oncology. Moreover, we believe the
market is attributing minimal value to Roche's multiple high probability novel
immunotherapies in clinical development. Roche management have historically
underplayed the potential for immunotherapy, but simultaneously extensive
business development over the past 6-12 months means that Roche now have
arguably the most extensive portfolio of novel multi-modality immunotherapy assets
in the industry. We anticipate that Roche will present very positive data for their anti-
PDL1 in bladder cancer at ASCO (June 2014), which is a $4bn potential opportunity.
Please click here for full details: Roche Holding AG (ROG.VX).
* Removing Shire — Still positive but removing Shire (SHP.L; £31.59; 1) from Focus
List: We update forecasts to reflect the disposal of Dermagraft, resulting in 2014-
2019E EPS upgrades of 2-6% and a CAGR of 11% (sector on 13x 2015 PE offering
10%). Our new PT of £36 is based on the mid-point of a 2015 PE valuation of 15x,
and DCF valuation of £39 (WACC 7.5%, g=0%). Shire has outperformed
significantly over the past six months. With deal flow now a more important driver of
further outperformance, and competitive/patent/execution risks to consider, we
remove Shire and add Roche to Citi’s Focus List. Other preferred names include,
Novo Nordisk, Novartis, and BMS/PFE in the US. Please click here for full details:
Summary and Investment Conclusion — We reiterate our BUY on Roche and
increase our price target to SFr300 (from SFr280) and add Roche to Citi's EU
Focus List. Our EPS forecasts increase c.3-8% in 2018-20 and are now c.20%
ahead of consensus in 2018e. Our DCF increases to SFr306. We believe the
market is attributing minimal value to Roche's multiple high probability novel
immunotherapies in clinical development, including checkpoint blockers, immunestimulators,
DNA and peptide vaccines, bi-specific TCRs and small molecules.