>>> Brokers Upgrade & Downgrade - 21/02/2014

>>> Up
*BAE SYSTEMS RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*BOVIS HOMES RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*EURASIA DRILLING RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*EURASIA DRILLING RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFAML
*KUDELSKI RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS
*RIETER RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*SEADRILL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*TECHNIP RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN

>>> Down
*BARRATT DEVELOPMENT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*CAP GEMINI CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*GLENCORE XSTRATA CUT TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*GLOBAL TELECOM CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*ICADE CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCGEN
*MLP CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*ORANGE POLSKA SA CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*OTE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*SAFRAN CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*SMITHS GROUP CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS

>>> PT change


>>> Initiation
*BODYCOTE RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT 800P
*HALMA RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT UBS, PT 600P
*IMI RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT UBS, PT 1,600P
*MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIALS RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT 370P
*VESUVIUS RATED NEW SELL AT UBS, PT 440P
*XAAR RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT UBS, PT 1,150P

>>> Call
>> Stock
*BARCLAYS REMOVED FROM EUROPE 1 LIST AT BOFAML
*DUERR REMOVED FROM LEAST PREFERREDS, WARTSILA ADDED AT UBS
*VESUVIUS ADDED TO LEAST PREFERREDS, BODYCOTE TO MOST AT UBS

FT : M&A in the metals sector at an 8-year low

M&A in the metals sector at an 8-year low

Merger and acquisition activity in the metals sector plunged 30 per cent in 2013 to an eight-year low, as slow global growth, falling prices and production overcapacity made it hard for buyers and sellers to agree on valuations.
As the commodities markets slumped last year, just 357 M&A metals deals were completed, compared to 507 in 2012, according to a report by PwC.

The value of the deals decreased 24 per cent from 2012 to $34.8bn. To put that into perspective, in 2007, the height of the China-driven commodities boom, the value of deals totalled $144.7bn.
The average base metals and precious metals prices for 2013 dropping 6 per cent and 17 per cent respectively, according to the World Bank.
“Deal activity fell away in 2013 and, while there is some greater economic optimism, we conclude that overall low gear growth combined with continued worldwide production overcapacity doesn’t augur well for a strong recovery in metals M&A in 2014,” said Jim Forbes, global metals leader at PwC.
Domestic metals deals dominated last year, with the value of cross-border M&A activity falling from 39 per cent to 11 per cent of the total value, by far the lowest figure since data were first collected for the report in 2003.
While seven of the ten biggest completed transactions were worth more than $1bn, only two were initiated in 2013, with the rest carried forward from previous years. The largest completed deal was the $7.5bn merger between two Middle East state aluminium firms to create Emirates Global Aluminium.
In 2014, companies are still more likely to use funds to reduce inefficiencies and costs and to spur innovation, rather than to seek acquisitions, the report said. But PwC said the dealmaking mood in the metals industry was “brightening a little” in 2014, as commodity prices stabilised.
The Chinese government’s five-year plan to tackle overcapacity and pollution could encourage some consolidation activity between companies there, the report said. Additional purchases of iron ore assets by Asian companies are also expected, as are more joint venture deals globally.
The biggest shift in M&A trends could be geographical, with momentum moving back towards advanced countries, in particular the US. The improved American economy, along with the advent of shale gas and expectations of lower energy costs, is stimulating interest from foreign companies in doing metals deals there. Already in 2014, ArcelorMittal and Marubeni-Itochu Steel have bought US-based businesses.
Raj Karia, partner at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright, said prospective buyers and sellers in the metals industry were having to “adjust to the new realities of life”.
“M&A activity in the resources space has been negatively impacted by the mismatch in seller and buyer expectations about the trajectory of the underlying commodity prices,” he said. “This is creating a gap in valuation expectations, which will narrow over time.”

FT : €100m savings plan helps to bolster Accor’s fortunes

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€100m savings plan helps to bolster Accor’s fortunes

Accor, the French hotel group, said a savings plan coupled with growth in key European markets helped it return to profit last year.
Europe’s largest hotel operator by number of rooms said operating profit reached €536m in 2013, a like-for-like rise of 5.3 per cent compared with 2012 and slightly above both its January guidance of €530m and consensus estimates of about €528m.

Net profit was €126m compared with a loss in 2012 of €599m, the company said. By late afternoon on Thursday, Accor shares closed down 0.6 per cent at €36.53. They have gained more than 22 per cent in the past six months.
The group also said that a €100m savings plan announced late last year had already produced €37m by the end of December.
Thursday’s results were the first since Sébastien Bazin, the new chairman and chief executive, announced a strategic plan in November to organise the group into two divisions – one focusing on operations and the other on property management.
Mr Bazin’s appointment – he had previously sat on the board as a representative of Colony Capital, the private equity firm that is a large Accor shareholder – followed a prolonged period of boardroom differences and management changes.
Mr Bazin described the results as “robust”. He added: “While the economic environment remains uncertain in a few regions, overall we are benefiting from the global recovery”.
The group, whose brands include Sofitel and the budget Ibis chain, said it planned to raise the dividend to €0.80 from €0.76 previously.

>>> Kinnevik could be open to sell Tele2- report


Kinnevik could be open to sell Tele2- report

Kinnevik, the Swedish investment company, could be open to selling all of its telecom company, Tele2, according to TMT Finance. This comes after recent speculation that Kinnevik could be in talks with Hong Kong-based conglomerate, Hutchison Whampoa, regarding a sale of Tele2's Swedish business. The website reported that the rumours regarding Tele2’s future have since then continued and unnamed banking sources now say that Kinnevik could be open to selling all of Tele2 instead of just the Swedish unit.

The item noted that earlier reports valued the Swedish operations at around USD 6.3bn but sources now believe that this amount may actually correspond to Tele2 as a whole. The report speculated however that this would mean a multiple of 6.5 times Tele2’s total EBITDA of USD 969m which is deemed a low premium compared to the 8 x EBITDA Kinnevik is reportedly interested in gaining.

The website’s sources made it clear that the potential sale is in its very early stages and if anything occurs it will likely be in the medium-term.

Meanwhile, the report noted that Tele2 has thus far not wished to comment on the rumours.


Source TMT Finance

>>> Scania's fate could be decided by Volkswagen today - report (translated)

Scania's fate could be decided by Volkswagen today - report (translated)

Volkswagen (VW), the German auto giant, could today make a decision on whether to increase its ownership in the Swedish truck maker, Scania, Dagens Industri reported.

The Swedish business daily reported VW’s board is to discuss its 2013 report today. However, the paper wrote, citing press reports, the Scania matter is also a priority.

VW had earlier hoped to gain synergies worth SEK 1bn (EUR 111m) from a collaboration between Scania and its German peer, MAN, which is also controlled by VW. However, these synergies have not come to pass, therefore, VW is considering taking full ownership in Scania to facilitate a deeper collaboration between the two truck companies, the report noted.

Scania’s share price has risen almost 10% since early February when it was reported VW might be considering making an offer for the remaining shares in Scania. The item noted Scania’s share was also one of the most successful shares on the stock exchange yesterday and the share price is at its highest since July last year.

The paper noted VW currently owns 88.3% of the votes and 59% of the capital in Scania and it could cost around SEK 50bn-60bn (EUR 5.6bn-6.7bn) to buy out the Swedish company’s minority shareholders.


Source Dagens Industri

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Nikkei leads the rebound on softer Yen, Lew calls for more progress on CNY reform at G20

***Economic Data*** - (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) RELEASES MINUTES FROM JAN 21-22 MEETING: Sees moderate economic recovery to continue. - (KR) South Korea Q4 Household Income +1.7% y/y - (US) NORTH AMERICA JAN SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.04 V 1.02 PRIOR (4th consecutive month above parity)

***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - HP and Priceline rise just over 1% in extended session after beating estimates on top and bottom lines; Gains capped by below-consensus forecasts for next quarter. - In Australia, NAB's growth in domestic lending overshadowed by prospects of higher "redress costs" in its UK business; Santos FY profits fall amid rising offshore exploration costs without positive results. - US Treasury Sec Lew opens G20 conference in Sydney with a keynote address; Sees global economic growth remaining below potential and also calls for EM economies to balance their books, for Japan to get on with 3rd arrow of Abenomics, and for China to accelerate FX reform. - BOJ Minutes from Jan meeting show concern CPI may slow once JPY stops weakening; Members generally not worried over the impact of higher sales tax, and many members express the need for transparency on wide scope for policy toward achieving 2% inflation target. - Also in Japan, press survey seeing reluctance among managers to boost base wages with just over a month to go to the start of the new FY; Less than 20% plan to hike base salaries and only about 11% of companies would hike by enough to cover expenditures from higher sales tax.

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥2.5T in T-bills outright; Exercise on Feb 25th - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,081 tonnes from 10,150 tonnes prior - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1176 v 6.1146 prior setting (weakest setting since Dec 19th) - (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets Week ending Feb 19th: $4.15T v $4.12T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.11T v $4.08T prior; M1: -$79.6B v +$109.2B prior; M2: +$41.3B v +$14.9B prior

- JPY is modestly weaker across the board - USD/JPY hit session highs in afternoon trade above 102.55 after comments from BOJ's Kuroda that it is too early to discuss exit from QE; EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also up about 30 pips from the lows above 140.70 and 170.70 respectively. AUD is underperforming, falling back below $0.90 handle despite the overall risk-on session, with a bearish research note from Deutsche passing the trading desks with a forecast for AUD/USD as low as mid-$0.60s in 2015.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - US Treasury Sec Lew: Global economy remains well below potential; US pushing for TPP agreement; Sees progress on fx rate with respect to China; yet to move at speeds US wants - (CN) Beijing to officially implement of second-child policy on Feb 21st - Chinese press - (CN) China Finance Ministry researcher Jia Kang: Property tax should target the high-end segment - Chinese press - (CN) Commercial property project in China's City of Xiangyang, Hubei Province halted construction due to capital chain rupture; Sales permit revoked - Chinese press - (CN) China Ministry of Environmental Protection: China records 19.3 days in Jan with polluted air quality; Only 11.7 days in Jan have "above minimum standard" air quality; Sampled in 74 cities in China - (CN) China to continue US bond market investment; Normal for the nation to cut holdings of treasuries, as it is to increase them - Hong Kong press cites People's Daily - (JP) BoJ Gov Kuroda: Reiterates on track to hit 2% target; too early to discuss specific QE exit plans - addressing parliament - (JP) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Exec Dir Amamiya: Central bank to make policy adjustments if there are changes in outlook for inflation - addressing parliament - (JP) According to one survey, less than 20% of Japanese firms agree with PM Abe's stimulus policy to hike base wages in 2014 - financial press - (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: To explain Japan's plan to spur growth at the G20 - financial press - (JP) Nomura Securities strategist: Expectations for additional easing from the BOJ are gaining traction - Nikkei - (AU) Australia Treasurer Hockey: Cautions country will run out of funds to pay for Medicare services - Australian press (update) - (NZ) New Zealand Fin Min English: New Zealand on track for FY14/15 budget surplus - comments on govt financial statement - (NZ) ANZ chief economist: Latest decline in consumer confidence is "merely noise" - NZ press - (KR) South Korea Customs Service: Feb 1-20 Exports +3.6% y/y, Imports +1.0% y/y - (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hyun: Fed tapering needs to be orderly and carefully calibrated; Emerging markets need to review macroeconomic policies

***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +2.3%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi +1.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Mar S&P500 +0.2% at 1,841, Apr gold +0.1% at $1,318, Mar crude oil -0.1% at $103.21/brl

US markets: - ESC: To merge with Brookdale Senior Living in transaction valued at $2.8B in stock (32% premium); +30.5% afterhours - JNPR: Releases integrated operating plan; returning $3B (21.7% of market cap) in capital to shareholders over coming 3 years; initiatves $0.10 quarterly dividend (implied yield 1.5%); +2.8% afterhours - INTU: Reports Q2 $0.02 v $0.15e, R$782M v $826Me; +1.9% afterhours - PCLN: Reports Q4 $8.85 v $8.22e, R$1.54B v $1.52Be; +1.5% afterhours - HPQ: Reports Q1 $0.90 v $0.85e, R$28.15B v $27.1Be; +1.1% afterhours - AGU: Reports Q4 $0.74 v $0.90e, R$2.87B v $3.04Be; +0.5% afterhours - WBMD: Reports Q4 $0.25 v $0.23e, R$146.3M v $145Me; -0.4% afterhours - JWN: Reports Q4 $1.37 v $1.33e, R$3.61B v $3.70Be; -0.7% afterhours - NEM: Reports Q4 $0.33 (inc items) v $0.42e, R$2.17B v $2.10Be; -0.9% afterhours - MRVL: Reports Q4 $0.29 v $0.26e, R$932M v $893Me; -2.6% afterhours - ESRX: Reports Q4 $1.12 (adj) v $1.12e, R$25.8B v $25.3Be; -2.7% afterhours - GRPN: Reports Q4 $0.04 v $0.02e, R$768.4M v $719Me; -11.7% afterhours

Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Billabong BBG.AU +1.4% (H1 results); Fantastic Holdings FAN.AU -3.8% (H1 results) - Financials: National Australia Bank NAB.AU -2.2% (Q1 trading update); Amalgamated Holdings AHD.AU +2.4% (H1 results); AIA Group 1299.HK -1.7% (FY13 results) - Materials: Jinchuan Group International Resources 2362.HK +9.1% (Trafigura acquires stake); Iluka Resources ILU.AU +1.6% (FY13 results); Teranga Gold Corp TGZ.AU +3.2% (FY13 results) - Energy: Santos Ltd STO.AU -4.0% (FY13 results) - Technology: Acer Inc 2353.TW +1.4% (unveils new Android smartphones); Renesas Electronics Corp 6723.JP +4.4% (restructuring plans) - Telecom: KDII 9433.JP +2.4% (press speculation on FY14/15 results)

>>> US CLose : Dow+0,58% S&P+0,60% Nasdaq+0,70%

Closing Summary: Small Caps Lead Stocks Higher

Equities ended the Thursday session on their highs with small caps in the lead. The Russell 2000 gained 1.1% while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% with all ten sectors posting gains.

Prior to the open, the market appeared to be headed for a lower start as disappointing data from China, Japan, and the eurozone weighed on index futures. Specifically, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 from 49.5 (49.4 expected), Japan posted a record trade deficit of JPY1.82 trillion (JPY1.56 trillion expected), and the Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone (53.0 versus 54.0 expected) disappointed.

Despite the weak data from overseas, equity futures were able to find support when a better-than-expected Markit Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. was released (56.7 actual versus 53.0 expected). Historically, the data point has not been known for eliciting a noteworthy reaction in the market, but today's number likely fueled some short covering activity that sent futures back to their flat lines by the opening bell. In addition, buying ahead of tomorrow's options expiration likely factored into the morning rebound and the daylong rally.

Once the session got going, stocks saw a mild dip, which was erased within the first hour of action. Small caps enjoyed a strong session from the get-go after Facebook (FB 69.63, +1.57) announced the $16 billion acquisition of WhatsApp, a mobile messenger service.

With small caps charging ahead, the rest of the market followed suit. Although the S&P 500 ended on its high, the largest two sectors—financials (+0.3%) and technology (+0.3%)—could never catch up to the index. However, the market did receive support from the third largest sector—health care—which gained 0.9%.

Another countercyclical group—consumer staples (+0.5%)—finished behind the broader market as Wal-Mart (WMT 73.52, -1.33) weighed. The retail giant fell 1.8% after its cautious guidance overshadowed its bottom-line beat.

Also of note, the industrial sector (+0.8%) outperformed as transports rallied broadly. The Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped 1.6% with all 20 components posting gains. Despite the sharp move, the bellwether complex was unable to regain its 50-day moving average (7278), which was violated on Tuesday.

Treasuries ended modestly lower with the benchmark 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.75%.

Participation was on the light side as 660 million shares changed hands on the floor of the NYSE.

Today's economic data featured four reports:
- The weekly initial claims level fell to 336,000 from an unrevised 339,000 while the consensus expected the reading to fall to 335,000. There were no seasonal biases or unusual events reported in the data. The initial claims level is holding firmly between 330,000 and 340,000.
- The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators increased 0.3% in January after a downward revision to unchanged (from +0.1%) in December. The consensus expected the index to increase 0.4%. The increase in the index was largely the result of the initial claims level returning to normal levels following unusual seasonal biases in the data. That component added 0.24 percentage points to the January increase in the index after reducing growth by 0.34 percentage points in December.
- Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region contracted for the first time since May 2013. The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey for February dropped to -6.3 from 9.4 while the consensus expected the Index to decline to 7.4. Manufacturers commented to the Philly Fed that severe winter storms affected the region and reduced business activity. If this is true, then the contraction should not last long. We are hesitant to blame all of the weakness on the weather. Poor economic data have been reported for the last two months, and evidence suggests that the overall economy is to blame for the sluggishness and not necessarily the weather.
- Consumer prices increased 0.1% in January, down from a 0.2% increase in December. The consensus expected the CPI to increase 0.2%. Inflation growth remains tame, and there was nothing in the data that suggests any type of breakout. Food prices rose 0.1% after being unchanged in December. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased an in-line 0.1% for a second consecutive month.
- Tomorrow's data will be limited to the Existing Home Sales report for January, which is set to be released at 10:00 ET.
Nasdaq Composite +2.2% YTD
Russell 2000 -0.1% YTD
S&P 500 -0.5% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.7% YTD

>>> Hewlett-Packard beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q2

Hewlett-Packard beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line (midpoint below); raises low end of FY14 EPS, in-line (30.19   +0.74)

Reports Q1 (Jan) adj. earnings of $0.90 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.84; revenues fell 0.7% year/year to $28.15 bln vs the $27.17 bln consensus. Personal Systems revenue was up 4% YoY with a 3.3% operating margin. Commercial revenue increased 8% and Consumer revenue declined 3%. Total units were up 6% with Desktops units down 3% and Notebooks units up 5%.  Printing revenue was down 2% YoY with a 16.8% operating margin. Total hardware units were up 5% with Commercial hardware units up 6% and Consumer hardware units up 4%. Supplies revenue was down 3%.  Enterprise Group revenue was up 1% YoY with a 14.4% operating margin. Industry Standard Servers revenue was up 6%, Storage revenue was flat, Business Critical Systems revenue was down 25%, Networking revenue was up 4% and Technology Services revenue was down 4%.  Enterprise Services revenue was down 7% YoY with a 1% operating margin. Application and Business Services revenue was down 4%, and Infrastructure Technology Outsourcing revenue declined 9%.  Software revenue was down 4% YoY with a 15.8% operating margin. Support revenue was down 2%, license revenue was down 6%, professional services revenue was down 12% and software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue was up 6%.  HP Financial Services revenue was down 9% YoY with a 6% decrease in net portfolio assets and an 18% increase in financing volume. The business delivered an operating margin of 11.6%. Corporate Investments revenue increased due to the sale of a portfolio of mobile computing intellectual property.  Asset management  HP generated $3.0 billion in cash flow from operations in the first quarter, up 17% from the prior-year period. Inventory ended the quarter at $6.0 billion, down 1 day YoY to 25 days. Accounts receivable ended the quarter at $13.5 billion, down 2 days YoY at 43 days. Accounts payable ended the quarter at $12.6 billion, up 4 days YoY to 52 days. HP's dividend payment of $0.1452 per share in the first quarter resulted in cash usage of $278 million. HP also utilized $565 million of cash during the quarter to repurchase ~20.4 million shares of common stock in the open market. HP exited the quarter with $16.4 billion in gross cash. Co issues in-line guidance for Q2, sees adj. EPS of $0.85-0.89 vs. $0.89 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Co issues in-line guidance for FY14, raises adj. EPS to $3.60-3.75 (from $3.55-3.75) vs. $3.64 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

WSJ : BlackBerry's Facebook Fantasy

BlackBerry's Facebook Fantasy

Facebook's FB +2.28% $19 billion move on WhatsApp clouds the picture for BlackBerry BBRY +4.77% investors trying to value that company's own messaging service—as well as its latest turnaround effort.

BlackBerry's shares bounced Thursday on the Facebook news. The surprise acquisition valued mobile-messaging provider WhatsApp's 450 million users at about $42 each. That same math applied to the 80 million users of BlackBerry Messenger, or BBM, implies a value of about $3.36 billion, equal to about 70% of BlackBerry's total market value.

Yet even bullish Facebook analysts are puzzled by the deal's implied value. Facebook won't be wrapping WhatsApp's huge customer base into its own lucrative advertising platform. And for all the hoopla around WhatsApp, the key question of what a mobile-messaging customer is actually worth remains unanswered, and frothy valuations of Silicon Valley startups may not be the best place to start.

Moreover, BBM remains closely tied to BlackBerry's rapidly shrinking handset business. The company said in late December that about 40 million iOS and Android users registered the application in the 60 days following its launch for those platforms. But it remains unknown how their usage compares with those on the BlackBerry platform.

WhatsApp's value lies in its large customer base straddling all major mobile platforms—with 70% of its user base active each day. BlackBerry still needs to show it can keep users engaged outside its home platform base and monetize the service.

BlackBerry is currently working to build up BBM as a messaging app focused on corporate and government customers. While chief John Chen said on the most recent earnings call that BlackBerry wouldn't rule out advertising for BBM, he believes revenue will come from monthly user fees.

It will take time to see if BBM can make that stick on its new platforms. And that strategy is in contrast to those of other mobile-messaging apps.

So putting a value on BBM at anything near that implied by the Facebook deal looks far-fetched. Absent that, BlackBerry investors are still left with the riddle of how to value the company's prospects as a provider of enterprise-class mobile software, given it is working to spin off the money-losing hardware business to Foxconn. 2354.TW -0.15%

There is no easy answer. Although the shares have risen more than 50% since the last earnings report, debate has centered on assumptions around the value of pieces such as service revenues, patents and potential gains from selling Canadian real estate holdings.

In this light, BBM remains an interesting option on BlackBerry's turnaround. Just don't confuse its message for the stock's main story.