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BlackBerry’s WhatsApp Valuation Seen Derailed by BBM: Real M&A
2014-02-26 01:05:44.168 GMT
(For a Real M&A column news alert: SALT REALMNA <GO>.)
By Tara Lachapelle, Brooke Sutherland and Gerrit De Vynck
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- For BlackBerry Ltd. investors
cheering the prospect of a sale of its BBM messaging service
after last week’s $19 billion deal for WhatsApp Inc., the
waiting may be the hardest part.
BlackBerry shares have rallied 18 percent since Facebook
Inc. agreed to pay $42 per user for WhatsApp’s mobile-messaging
application, implying a valuation of as much as $3.6 billion for
BBM. The messaging service isn’t likely to find a buyer willing
to pay close to that much because it lacks the scale of WhatsApp
with a user base one-fifth the size, BGC Partners Inc. said.
Chief Executive Officer John Chen said yesterday that he’d
eventually consider spinning off or selling BBM once he’s built
it into a stronger competitor. Even if the app doubled its
growth rate of 2.8 million users per month, it wouldn’t reach
WhatsApp’s current size until 2019, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg. BlackBerry, which failed to find a buyer last
year, may be better off making a last attempt to sell the entire
company to Microsoft Corp., Hudson Square Research Inc. said.
“The outlook is not bright,” Daniel Ernst, a New York-
based analyst at Hudson Square, said in a phone interview. BBM’s
user base currently isn’t “in the ballpark of what would be
interesting to a global Internet company.”
Lisette Kwong, a spokeswoman for Waterloo, Ontario-based
BlackBerry, declined to comment beyond Chen’s remarks on the
prospects for selling the messaging service.
BBM Potential
“The potential is going to be huge” for BBM, Chen said in
a Feb. 25 interview with Bloomberg Television at the Mobile
World Congress in Barcelona. “Until we get to the point that we
can showcase that potential, it is a bit too early to think
about getting our $19 billion.”
BlackBerry has added about 25 million BBM users since May
to reach 85 million this month, according to company statements.
Should the app maintain that growth rate, it would rival
WhatsApp’s current 450 million users by January 2025, data
compiled by Bloomberg show. Doubling the pace to 5.6 million
each month makes BBM the size of WhatsApp by August 2019 and the
size of Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s WeChat, with 272 million users,
by December 2016.
“There are benefits of scale in this area, so you’d
probably pay a lot less for Blackberry’s BBM subscribers than
you would, say, a WhatsApp,” James Cordwell, a London-based
analyst at Atlantic Equities LLP, said in a phone interview. For
potential BBM suitors, the “biggest question would be, can they
hold onto those users or are those users going to migrate over
to a larger service?”
WhatsApp Growth
More than 1 million people are signing up for WhatsApp each
day, and the service is on track to reach 1 billion users in the
next few years, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said last week
after the deal was announced.
“WhatsApp has five times the scale, roughly, of BBM and
it’s growing at a fast clip,” Colin Gillis, a New York-based
analyst at BGC Partners, said in a phone interview. “The No. 1
company in a space tends to command a higher premium.”
Rakuten Inc., a Tokyo-based online retailer, earlier this
month paid $900 million for Viber, a similar mobile-messaging
service with more users than BBM. That deal implies a lower
value for BBM than the $3.6 billion that’s based on the WhatsApp
acquisition, data compiled by Bloomberg show. BlackBerry had a
market value yesterday of $5.6 billion.
User Strength
While selling BBM now could give BlackBerry shareholders an
immediate reward, the company can’t risk parting with one of its
best assets, said Brian Blair, a New York-based analyst at Wedge
Partners Corp. BlackBerry reported losses in six of the last
eight quarters and revenue in the most recent period was the
lowest since 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“It’s not in the best interest of BlackBerry as a
company,” he said in a phone interview. “What they should
learn from WhatsApp and other communications platforms is that
the strength is in getting as many users as possible.”
With BBM so far behind peers, BlackBerry must find a niche
market to lure more users, according to Todd Coupland, a
Toronto-based analyst at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
Chen, who became CEO in November after Fairfax Financial
Holdings Ltd. terminated a $4.7 billion takeover proposal,
hasn’t said he’s looking to enter an arms race for users with
WhatsApp and Facebook. He’s instead targeting the bankers,
lawyers and other professionals who have stayed loyal to
BlackBerry because of the security of its e-mail networks and
its Qwerty keyboard-equipped phones. Yesterday, Chen unveiled
BBM Protected, a version of the instant-messaging service with
enhanced encryption.
Business Customers
“Nobody has a secure messaging infrastructure, and we’re
the only ones who have it,” Chen said in an interview. “It’s
important that we showcase and use that as a differentiator into
the thousands and thousands of enterprise customers.”
BlackBerry has said it’s looking to develop BBM channels --
essentially chat rooms devoted to specific themes -- that could
carry advertising as a way of creating new revenue streams for
the messaging service. The company has the potential to charge
business customers for using the service, Tim Long, a New York-
based analyst at Bank of Montreal, wrote in a Feb. 20 report.
WhatsApp charges $1 a year after one year free.
BBM could command a higher price per user because
enterprise users are more valuable, said Neeraj Monga, an
analyst at Veritas Investment Research Corp. in Toronto.
Even with BBM, BlackBerry is projected to continue losing
money through at least 2016, according to analysts’ estimates
compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue is forecast to tumble 39 percent
in the fiscal year ending February 2015, the data show.
Whole Takeover
While Chen has made some progress since taking the helm,
“nothing is really turned around in terms of the business,”
said Coupland of CIBC.
BlackBerry’s focus on security and enterprise customers
would still be a good fit for Microsoft, and a purchase of the
entire company would be a relatively small acquisition for the
$312 billion software maker, said Ernst of Hudson Square. With
shares of acquirers rallying after deal announcements lately,
Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft should consider a takeover
now, he said.
Tony Imperati, a spokesman for Microsoft, declined to
comment on whether the company is interested in buying
BlackBerry.
A takeover of the entire company may be more likely than a
sale of the BBM unit, said David Cockfield, a fund manager with
Northland Wealth Management in Toronto who helps manage about
C$270 million and owns shares of BlackBerry.
“BlackBerry’s messenger has been around and nobody’s
rushed up and made them an offer,” Cockfield said in a phone
interview. As for the entire company, “if it looks like it’s
going to survive -- and it’s beginning to look that way -- then
I suspect somebody may come in and make a bid.”
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--With assistance from Stefanie Batcho-Lino and Hugo Miller in
Toronto. Editors: Whitney Kisling, Beth Williams
To contact the reporters on this story:
Tara Lachapelle in New York at +1-212-617-8911 or
tlachapelle@bloomberg.net;
Brooke Sutherland in New York at +1-212-617-0448 or
bsutherland7@bloomberg.net;
Gerrit De Vynck in Toronto at +1-416-203-5720 or
gdevynck@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Beth Williams at +1-212-617-2307 or
bewilliams@bloomberg.net;
Sarah Rabil at +1-212-617-5992 or
srabil@bloomberg.net