(BFW) Shire’s Vyvanse Ruling May Support Bid Above GBP55/Shr: Barclays

Shire’s Vyvanse Ruling May Support Bid Above GBP55/Shr: Barclays
2014-06-25 10:51:47.976 GMT


By Allison Connolly
     June 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. ruling on Vyvanse patent
infringement lawsuit is positive, supports Shire’s own
valuation, Barclays says in note.
  * Barclays (overweight): AbbVie could increase bid above
    GBP55/shr vs previous GBP46.26/shr based on tax inversion
    benefit, assurance on Vyvanse patent strength
    * Says drug accounts for ~30% of co. earnings so patent
      uncertainty is significant sentiment driver
  * NOTE: Earlier, Shire Says U.S. Court Grants Summary Judgment
    Motion on Vyvanse

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Allison Connolly in London at +44-20-3525-7043 or
aconnolly4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net

>>> Valmont lowers FY14 EPS guidance

Valmont lowers FY14 EPS guidance to $9.35-9.65 (from $10.00-10.50) vs $10.36 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 EPS of $2.35-2.40 vs $2.80 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Co commented on its 2014 earnings outlook.
  • "In the Utility Support Structures Segment, the mix and timing of projects currently provide less favorable profits than what we have seen in recent years and less than our prior expectations for this year. We now expect operating income as a percentage of sales for this segment to be in the range of 12% to 14% both for the second quarter and for the year.
  • "In the Coatings Segment, the weaker Australian economy has negatively affected the profitability of our galvanizing businesses in that country and the less favorable exchange rate has dampened the results from all our Australian operations.
  • "As expected, our Irrigation Segment will have an unfavorable comparison for the second quarter compared to an exceptionally strong second quarter in 2013.
  • "We expect improved profits from our Engineered Infrastructure Products Segment.
"Our prior guidance for 2014 indicated earnings of between $10.00 and $10.50 per diluted share. To reflect the more challenging environment in our North American utility structures business and the continued weakness in the Australian economy, we currently expect full year diluted earnings per share will be in the range of $9.35 to $9.65 (vs $10.36 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate). This guidance excludes the effect of our stock repurchasing program on earnings per share and any one-time adjustments that may take place during the remainder of the year.

"It is too early to comment on any changes that might be expected for the second half of the year for the Irrigation Segment. At this time our guidance anticipates Irrigation Segment profitability for the second half of 2014 at approximately the same level as 2013's second half. Since we announced our capital allocation philosophy on May 13th, we have repurchased approximately 436,000 shares, 1.6 percent of outstanding shares, for a total of $69 million out of an authorization of up to $500 million.

"We now expect diluted earnings per share in the range of $2.35 to $2.40 for the second quarter of 2014 (vs $2.80 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate) compared to the record $3.33 diluted earnings per share in the second quarter of 2013."

(BFW) Cermaq Says ISA Virus Detected in 2 Fish Pens in Langoeyhovden

 BN 06/25 10:12 *CERMAQ SAYS CONSIDERING CULLING FISH AT 2 AFFECTED PENS
BFW 06/25 10:11 *CERMAQ SAYS ISA FOUND IN 2 CAGES IN LANGOEYHOVDEN, VESTERAALEN
 BN 06/25 10:11 *CERMAQ SAYS LOW MORTALITY AT SITE, NO CLINICAL SIGN OF OUTBREAK
 BN 06/25 10:09 *CERMAQ COMMENTS ON ISA DETECTION IN STATEMENT ON CO. WEBSITE
 BN 06/25 10:08 *CERMAQ SAYS ISA FOUND IN 2 CAGES IN LANGOEYHOVDEN, VESTERAALEN
Cermaq Says ISA Virus Detected in 2 Fish Pens in Langoeyhovden
2014-06-25 10:19:59.467 GMT


By Stephen Treloar
     June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Virus detected by real time PCR
screening, Cermaq says in statement on company website.
  * Says mortality at site is low, no clinical signs of outbreak
  * Considering culling fish in 2 affected pens to prevent
    spread of infection
  * Says Langoeyfjord contains about 660,000 fish of 2.6kg avg
    live weight; 173,000 to be culled
  * Sees “limited financial impact” from culling

Link to Company News:{CEQ NO <Equity> CN <GO>}

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First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Stephen Treloar at +47-22-00-8211 or
streloar1@bloomberg.net

(BFW) Stryker Bid for Smith & Nephew Has 80% Chance of Success: Exane

Stryker Bid for Smith & Nephew Has 80% Chance of Success: Exane
2014-06-25 10:14:25.768 GMT


By Allison Connolly
     June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Exane see clear strategic rationale
for merger while co. turnaround strategy remains valid,
according to note.
  * Ests. Smith & Nephew organic growth of at least 4% from 2015
    onwards vs current 2%-3%; cites focus on M&A, EMs for growth
  * Raises PT to 1,250p vs 1,000p (outperform)
  * NOTE: May 29, Stryker Denies Report It’s Planning Smith &
    Nephew Bid
  * NOTE: June 5, Stryker Retains Right to Smith & Nephew Bid If
    Medtronic Bids


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Allison Connolly in London at +44-20-3525-7043 or
aconnolly4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Jurjen van de Pol

(CS) Vivendi - Added to Focus List - 2 notes attached (VIV & Global Music)

--> Add to Europe Focus List: We re-initiate on Vivendi (O/P, €24 price target) and add it to the Credit Suisse Europe Focus List. We argue Universal Music is the most valuable asset within the group, and include it at €10bn in our new SOTP valuation – significantly above consensus at €6.5bn. We argue the shift in music consumption towards paid streaming will have a positive impact on Universal's EBITDA growth, which we forecast at 13% CAGR 2013-2020. We elaborate on our thesis in our in-depth study of the Global Music industry

-> End-game could be two listed assets: While there could be synergies between the business units, we argue one logical way for Vivendi to fully shed its conglomerate status, and its resulting valuation discount, would be to sell GVT and spin-off Canal Plus or Universal Music into separate listed entities. We highlight that should the group's newly-installed management
team choose this route, it could yield a "Blue Sky" valuation of €28 per share.

--> Catalysts: Anti-trust clearance of the sale of SFR to Numéricable by the end of 2014; Vivendi reports Q2 results on 28 August.

--> Valuation: We value Vivendi at €24 per share, which assumes a €22.30 "base" SOTP valuation plus €1.80 per share accretion from a €5.5bn share buyback. We also highlight that if the company were to sell GVT for €8bn in cash and spin-off UMG (or Canal Plus) into a separate listed entity, this would yield a "Blue Sky" valuation of €28. Moreover, if we were to strip out Vivendi's cash, liabilities and listed assets, the media assets are trading at a 2014E EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.3x, which looks very low when compared with other content assets in Global Media, which trade at 12.1x.

--> GLOBAL MUSIC
Paid streaming will transform the music industry: In this report, we analyse how the rapid shift in music consumption towards paid streaming will drive a period of structural growth in the industry and refocus investors on the value of owning music content. Our key call is to buy Vivendi (OP, €24 price target, added to EUROPE FOCUS LIST), which owns the largest global label group, Universal Music. In a separate report (see Vivendi – Music: the forgotten content growth story) we raise our valuation of Universal to €10bn, materially ahead of consensus at around €6.5bn.

(Exane) Contrarian Calls : Playing Against the odds

* Contrarians: a new stock-picking angle to review our European SMC universe
We introduce a new product to complement our European Small & Mid Caps recommendation lists
(Strategic and Tactical) and our innovative weekly SMC Navigator tool. With this new product we
take a novel stock-picking approach: we highlight our deep contrarian calls vs consensus. Taking
both a quantitative and a qualitative approach, we grill our analysts to find out what they see that
the market doesn’t.

* Two contrarian Outperform calls: Faiveley, Vidrala
Our two positive convictions are on Faiveley (new management prioritising backlog execution, US
and China high-speed train opportunities, cheap relative valuation) and Vidrala (stronger FCF and
ROCE, better shareholder remuneration and M&A).

* Four contrarian Underperform calls: Booker, Clariant, EDP Renovaveis, N. Brown
Our Underperform calls are Booker (difficult environment, low earnings visibility for the current
multiple); Clariant (poor FCF generation, challenging 2015 targets, full valuation); EDP Renovaveis
(expensive valuation and weak management track record); and N Brown (new competition).

* We also highlight highly consensual calls which could revert
Overly consensual ideas are always a risk from an investment perspective. We have thus screened
for stocks on which consensus is strong but where several quantitative criteria suggest a potential
turning point for sentiment. Three of our consensual calls with an Outperform rating emerge on this
radar screen: ASM International, CFE and Sorin. Our conviction on these names remains
nevertheless positive.