3453 - 3418 are for me next levels to watch, if we break these levels nex t big levels are 3320/30 and still a gap open between 3301/3319
Have a look.
Laurent
Despite a week of major carnage to US equities , inflows to all equities funds remain strong ($11.2bn) and still greater than inflows tobond funds($6.3 bn)
Watch performance of High-Yield for clues that the current sell-off could mutate into broader carnage for risk assets.After all, with the exception offloating-rate debt HY is the asset class with the biggest year-to-date inflows as % of AUM (3.7%)
Capitulation back into EM : largest weekly inflows to EM debt & equity funds in more than a year ($4.7bn combined The flow differential between DM and EM equity funds reached an extreme 98 th percentile in Mar’14. To gauge extent to which the reversal is complete, watch the relative positioning between EM/Japan and EM/Eurozone in next week’s April FMS
>>> Asset Class Flows
- EM : $11.2 inflows(Largest in 7 weeks)
- Bonds : $6.3bn Inflows ( 5 straight weeks)
- Cash $15bn outflows
- Commodities : $0.20 outflows
>>> Equity Flows
- EM : $2.9bil Inflows (Largest weekly inflows since Feb13)
- US: $6.3bn Inflows (Majority via ETF's)
- Europe : 41straight weeks of inflows
- Japan: 0.6bil Outflows
LONDON — A top investment executive at Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund is leaving to start a hedge fund, people briefed on the development said.
Kamel Maamria has served as head of the global investment portfolio at Qatar Holding, a branch of the Qatar Investment Authority, the emirate’s sovereign wealth fund. He has also served on the board of Harrods on behalf of Qatar Holding.
The fund will be one of relatively few based and focused on the Middle East, with offices in both Qatar and Dubai. Goldman Sachs is expected to act as its prime broker.
Officials at Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund did not return calls for comment. Mr. Maamria, 50, also declined to comment. He was previously a partner at the Boston Consulting Group.
The fund will focus on a fundamental value strategy, mostly in public equities, people briefed on Mr. Maamria’s plans said. And it will focus primarily, but not exclusively, on the Gulf Cooperation Council states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
It is unclear to what extent it will be taking short positions because there are restrictions on doing so in the Middle East.
Anthony Lawler, an executive at GAM, an investment management firm that oversees portfolios of hedge funds for institutional clients, said hedge funds based in places like Qatar were unusual.
“Some investors consider the Middle East market closer to frontier status than developed status, and as a result there are less global managers trading Middle Eastern names,” he said.
Qatar, he added, has “been looking to try to bring asset managers and related services into Qatar, to build Qatar into a financial hub. They have had difficulty doing that, simply because there isn’t the critical mass there. It’s a little bit of a chicken and egg problem.”
US Market closed lower, with NAsdaq leading the move, S&P closed below its 50d MA, Nasdaq closed below its 100d MA. All ten sectors ended in the red with the largest four groups—technology (-2.5%), financials (-2.4%), health care (-3.2%), and consumer discretionary (-2.5%)—posting the largest losses...VIX @ 15.77 +14.1%...Volume were above average with 786mil shares but we could have expect more in such a move...Phibro Prices IPO at $15/Shr, Below Expected Range...Michigan Sentiment today...After Hours : CERE +5.3%, DWCH -27.6%, AVD -10.5%, NQ -8.1%, TTMI -3.9%, GPS -2.3% following earnings/guidance...Big focus will be on JPM & WFC Reporting their numbers...Asian equity indices are tracking a broad selloff on Wall Street... Bank of Japan released the minutes of its March meeting when it cut its assessment of exports but raised output and capex....China released mixed inflation figures for the month of March...Nikkei-2.46%...HD-0.57%...Shanghai-0.12%
Eur$1.3896 S&P FUt+0.08% European Fut -0.81%
Macro
-Kuroda Says Global Economy Is Gradually Improving Amid Risks
-Sapin Says France Maintains 2015 Deficit Target at 3% of GDP (not a Joke)
-China March Consumer Prices Rise 2.4%; Est. 2.4% Gain
-Moody’s Changes Outlook on Turkey to Negative From Stable --> Lira Lower
-Fitch Revises Outlook on Portugal to Positive; Affirms at ’BB+’
Keep an eye on :
- APR LN : APR Energy Holder SSP Selling as Many as 5.6m Shares
- AZA IM : Italy’s Renzi, Etihad CEO Said to Meet on Alitalia: Reuters Link
- B5A GY : Bauer Posts 2013 Loss on Charges, Tougher Competition; No Div.
- CDI FP : Christian Dior 9m Rev. EU23.8b Vs EU23b Y/Y
- OLE SM : Deoleo Board Said to Back CVC Takeover Bid: Reuters Link
- EIFF FP : Tour Eiffel Says Court Rejects Bid to Suspend SMABTP Offer
- GIVN VX : Givaudan 1Q Sales CHF1.09b vs Est. CHF1.08b, Repeats M/T Outlook
- GBT FP : Guerbet Says FDA Clears Lipiodol Imaging Agent for Liver Tumors
- HOLN VX : Holcim Says BlackRock Increases Stake to CHF922 Million
- KOF FP : Kaufman & Broad 1Q Net EU6.25 Mln Vs EU8.31 Mln
- HO FP : Thales Plans Bolt-On M&A, JPMorgan Says After CMD
- TL5 SM : Prisa Says Mediaset Stake (3.7%) Sale Through Accelerated Bookbuild,
- RNO FP : Renault May Cut Shift at Flins Plant: Reuters Link
-SN/ LN : *SMITH & NEPHEW TO PAY $12 MILLION TO SETTLE SHAREHOLDER SUITS
- VIV FP : Vivendi, 2 Other Music Labels Sue Megaupload, Operators:WSJ Link
>>> Up
*CAIXABANK RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*HEXAGON RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*MOSCOW EXCHANGE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*SMITHS GROUP RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*SMURFIT KAPPA RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
>>> Down
*AREVA CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*AXIS CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT NORDEA
*CITYCON CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT NORDEA
*FAROE PETROLEUM CUT TO MKT PERFORM VS SPEC BUY AT FIRSTENERGY
*FIRSTGROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA
*GDF SUEZ CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE, CUT FROM CREDIT SUISSE’S EUROPEAN FOCUS LIST
*KERING CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS MARKET PERFORM AT RAYMOND JAMES
*METSO CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*THALES CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*VTB CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*WEIR CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
>>> PT Changes
*EXOR PT RAISED TO EU33 VS EU30 AT UBS; KEPT AT NEUTRAL
>>> Initiation
*BOUYGUES REINSTATED BUY AT GOLDMAN, PT EU35
*GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ RATED NEW BUY AT SOCGEN; PT EU56
*IMMOFINANZ RESUMED EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY, PT EU3.20
*INVISION RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG; PT EU65
>>> Call
>> Stock
*GDF SUEZ CUT FROM CREDIT SUISSE’S EUROPEAN FOCUS LIST
*HAVAS ADDED TO UBS’S MOST PREFERRED LIST
*JCDECAUX ADDED TO UBS’S MOST PREFERRED LIST
*SYMRISE RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD AT COMMERZBANK
>> Sector
*EUROPEAN STEEL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT CITI
*BELARUS AFFIRMED AT S&P
*DENMARK AFFIRMED AT S&P
*FINLAND AFFIRMED AT S&P
*LEBANON AFFIRMED AT S&P*LITHUANIA RAISED AT S&P (*LITHUANIA RAISED FROM BBB TO A- BY S&P; OUTLOOK STABLE)
*SERBIA AFFIRMED AT S&P (Serbia BB-/B Rating Affirmed at S&P; Outlook Remains Negative)
Fitch Affirms Nigeria at BB-; Outlook Stable
*TURKEY OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE BY MOODY’S
After Hours Summary: CERE +5.3%, DWCH -27.6%, AVD -10.5%, NQ -8.1%, TTMI -3.9%, GPS -2.3% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: CERE +5.3%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: BOFI +9.5% (co's unit BofI Federal Bank agrees to provide banking products to H&R Block (HRB) clients), HRB +7.3% (reached definitive agreement to divest its bank), KIM +6.8% (acquired balance of KIF I Portfolio for $408 mln), NEPT +4.6% (Haywood disclosed 9.9% stake in 13D; says ' Company should implement changes to the Board of Directors and management'), TRMR +1.7% (First Dallas Holdings reported 5.1% passive stake in 13G filing), ADS +1.3% (Wells Fargo filed 13D taking a 5% stake), VISN +1.2% (announced strategic partnership with China Unicom (CHU)), R +1.1% (partnered with Decisiv to create an enhanced maintenance offering for large and for-hire truck fleets that own their vehicles and manage multiple maintenance providers)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: DWCH -27.6%, AVD -10.5%, NQ -8.1%, TTMI -3.9%, GPS -2.3%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: NTN -10.8% (announced proposed public offering of common stock, size not disclosed), GLOG -3.0% (announced that it plans to offer ~4.25 mln of its common shares to the public)
Asian Market Update: Nikkei225 falls to 6-month lows below 14K; China CPI recovers from 13-month lows
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA MAR CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 2.4% (1st rise in 6 months) V 2.4%E; M/M: -0.5% V 0.5% PRIOR
- (CN) CHINA MAR PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -2.3% V -2.2%E PRIOR (25th month of decline; Biggest decline in 8 months)
- (JP) JAPAN MAR DOMESTIC CGPI M/M: 0.0% V +0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.7% (9-month low) V 1.8%E
- (JP) JAPAN MAR MONEY STOCK M2 Y/Y: 3.5% (10-month low) V 4.0%E; M3 Y/Y: 2.9% V 3.2%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR FOOD PRICES M/M: -0.3% V -1.0% PRIOR (2nd straight decline)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR HOUSE PRICE INDEX: 3,965 V 3,835 PRIOR; HOUSE SALES Y/Y: -10.0% V -7.6% PRIOR
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.00%; AS EXPECTED
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT):
- Nikkei225 -2.3%, S&P/ASX -1.0%, Kospi -0.8%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Hang Seng -0.8%, Jun S&P500 +0.1% at 1,829, Jun gold flat at $1,320, May crude oil -0.2% at $103.23/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights***
- Asian equity indices are tracking a broad selloff on Wall Street, where the gains over the prior two session were swiftly erased on Thursday. Nikkei225 is the biggest decliner, falling over 2% below 14,000 mark amid continued JPY strength. This is a 6-month low for the Japanese index, and for the year, Nikkei225 is now down a whopping 15%.
- Bank of Japan released the minutes of its March meeting when it cut its assessment of exports but raised output and capex. The minutes showed that members agreed easy policy is working steadily, prices are moving in line with forecasts, and weakness in exports would be temporary. Economic data from Japan continued to show modest deterioration, most notably with corporate goods price growth slowing to a 9-month low.
- China released mixed inflation figures for the month of March. CPI was in line with consensus at 2.4%, arresting a decline of 5 consecutive months and quelling concerns over consumer inflation after last month's figure fell to a 13-month low of 2.0%. PPI remained in negative territory for 25th consecutive month, which should keep investors unnerved over the possibility of wholesale deflation feeding into retail trends. We should also note that Feb-Mar period saw an abrupt reversal in CNY strength, potentially helping on the inflation front.
- In Australia, Bank of Queensland reported H1 net profit down 34% y/y at A$134.7M and Rev rose 8%. Shares were halted in Sydney after BOQ also announced $400M acquisition of Investec Bank (Australia) Limiteds Specialist Finance and Leasing Businesses.
- The focus in the US earnings season shifts toward financials on Friday, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo on tap to report Q1 results.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies***
- (CN) China MOF fails to sell 1-yr Bonds - financial press
- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥636.8B in 1.7% (1.7% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.696% v 1.635% prior; Bid to cover: 2.93x v 4.28x prior
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 5.75% 2021 Bonds; avg yield: 3.6982%; bid-to-cover: 4.08x
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 0.3 tonnes to 806.2 tonnes (lowest since 805.2 on Mar 7th)
- (TR) MOODY'S REVISED TURKEY OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE; REAFFIRMS SOVEREIGN RATING AT BAA3
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets Week ending April 9th: $4.24T v $4.24T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.20T v $4.19T prior; M1: +$20.1B (first rise in 4 weeks) v -$15.7B prior; M2: -$37.0B (biggest decline in a year, first decline in 4 weeks) v +$20.0B prior; M1 and M2 percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates for the comparable week in 2013: M1 y/y change: 9.1% (6-week low) v 9.2% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.4% (11-week low) v 6.2% w/w
***Equities***
US markets:
- HRB: Reaches Definitive Agreement to Divest Its Bank; sees ongoing dilution of $0.07-0.09/year; +7.3% afterhours
- APP: Reports Mar SSS -5.0%, cites Easter holiday shift & halts further monthly metrics; +6.1% afterhours
- LSG: Reports prelim Q1 Cash Operating Costs of $630/oz; +1.4% afterhours
- VISN: Announces strategic partnership with China Unicom to establish wifi service network; +1.2% afterhours
- GPS: Reports March SSS -6% v -4.0%e; reaffirms guidance; -2.7% afterhours
- YGE: Lowers Q1 PV module shipment guidance; Shipments to fall by low thirties percent q/q vs prior guidance of mid-twenties decrease; -4.8% afterhours
- AVD: Guides Q1 EPS "zero to a few cents/shr", Rev to be down 33% y/y (prior down 20% y/y); -10.5% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Coca-Cola Amatil CCL.AU -13.9% (trading update); FamilyMart 8028.JP -0.7% (FY13/14 results); Fast Retailing 9983.JP -8.0% (H1 results); Lawson 2651.JP +1.2% (FY13/14 results); Ryohin Keikaku 7453.JP +7.4% (FY13/14 results); Chiyoda 8185.JP +5.5% (FY13/14 results)
- Financials: Bank of Queensland BOQ.AU halted (H1 results); CITIC Securities 6030.HK -3.6% (approved for China REIT listing)
- Industrials: BYD Company 1211.HK -3.1% (Mar sales volume)
- Technology: Seiko Epson Corp 6724.JP -4.9% (press speculation on FY13/14 earnings); Acer 2353.TW -1.8% (March results); Pegatron Corp 4938.TW -1.1% (Mar results)
The major averages spent the Thursday session in a daylong retreat that placed the Nasdaq (-3.1%) below its 100-day moving average, while the S&P 500 (-2.1%) finished below its 50-day average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average held up a bit better, but the price-weighted index posted a sharp loss (-1.6%) nonetheless.
Even though the major averages finished yesterday's session on an upbeat note, the sentiment began deteriorating during the overnight session when China reported a surprise trade surplus of $7.71 billion, which was due to disappointing import (-11.3% versus expected 2.4%) and export (-6.6% versus expected 4.0%) figures. This renewed some of the concerns about the strength of the Chinese economy, which have been present since the start of the year. Strikingly, markets in Hong Kong (+1.5%) and China (+1.4%) outperformed, but that was likely due to the announcement that Beijing would allow as much as CNY23.50 billion of cross-border equity trading.
Another major equity index, Japan's Nikkei, ended flat after starting with a solid 1.3% gain. The retreat from highs took place as the Japanese yen strengthened, sending the dollar/yen pair into the 101.50 area.
The caution that was exhibited in the foreign exchange market appeared to have faded by this morning, but the yen began strengthening ahead of the New York open, and returned to the overnight lows not long after.
Meanwhile, equities began their retreat shortly after the opening bell, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the slide.
By and large, there was some indiscriminate selling taking place as the lack of follow through from yesterday's rally piqued concerns about a larger scale correction being under way. In turn, the sharp price pullbacks started to raise worries about collateral damage among highly leveraged accounts that could be facing some margin calls. As those worries percolated, participants reduced their risk exposure with a sell-first-ask-questions-later disposition.
All ten sectors ended in the red with the largest four groups—technology (-2.5%), financials (-2.4%), health care (-3.2%), and consumer discretionary (-2.5%)—posting the largest losses.
Health care spent the duration of the trading day at the bottom of the leaderboard, with continued weakness in biotechnology exacerbating the decline. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 221.89, -13.19) tumbled to its 200-day moving average before inching up from that level into the close for a loss of 5.6%.
Elsewhere, technology and discretionary shares suffered from noteworthy weakness among momentum names. Amazon.com (AMZN 317.11, -14.69), Google (GOOG 540.95, -23.19), Facebook (FB 59.16, -3.25), and Netflix (NFLX 334.73, -18.30) surrendered between 4.1% and 5.2%, while smaller momentum-favorites fared even worse. FireEye (FEYE 49.75, -6.64), Tableau Software (DATA 65.52, -7.35), and Yelp (YELP 63.47, -7.78) all plunged more than 10.0% apiece.
The financial sector also ended among the laggards, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM 57.40, -1.87) and Wells Fargo (WFC 47.71, -1.39) falling 3.2% and 2.8%, respectively ahead of tomorrow morning's quarterly reports.
While seven sectors posted losses of 1.0% or more, defensively-oriented consumer staples (-0.9%), telecom services (-0.1%), and utilities (-0.4%) outperformed.
With stocks ending on their lows, demand for volatility protection sent the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.77, +1.95) higher by 14.1%, but the near-term volatility measure ended below highs established earlier in the week.
Treasuries posted gains, but finished below their midday highs. The benchmark 10-yr yield fell five basis points to 2.65%.
Participation was a bit above average as 786 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.
Looking back at today's data:
The weekly initial claims level fell to 300,000—its lowest point since May 2007—from an upwardly revised 332,000 (from 326,000), while the consensus expected the claims level to fall to 325,000. The size of the drop in claims was unusual, and while the Department of Labor did not issue any statements explaining the decline, there tends to be normal seasonal volatility over the first few weeks of April due to yearly calendar shifts in the Easter holiday.
Export prices, excluding agriculture, increased 0.5% in March after increasing 0.6% in the prior reading. Excluding oil, import prices rose 0.3%, which follows last month's downtick of 0.1%.
The Treasury Budget for March showed a deficit of $36.90 billion, which followed the prior month's deficit of $106.50 billion. The consensus expected the deficit to hit $36.00 billion.
Tomorrow, March PPI (consensus 0.1%) and Core PPI (consensus 0.1%) will be released at 8:30 ET, while the preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey for April (consensus 81.0) will cross the wires at 9:55 ET.
S&P 500 -0.8% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.5% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -2.9% YTD
Russell 2000 -3.0% YTD