>>> Bank of Spain (BoS) Monthly Bulletin: Raises both 2014 and 2015 GDP growth f


Bank of Spain (BoS) Monthly Bulletin: Raises both 2014 and 2015 GDP growth forecasts 
- Raises 2014 GDP growth forecast from 1.2% to 1.3% 
- Raises 2015 GDP growth outlook from 1.7% to 2.0% 
- Forecasts Q2 GDP +0.5% q/q, +1.1% y/y; Comments: 
- Activity recovering faster than expected. 

**Note; In early July, it was speculated that the 2015 GDP forecast would be raised. 
- Spain government's current 2014 GDP growth forecast is 1.2%

(BFW) *OUTOTEC NOT APPROACHED OR RECEIVED A BID

BN 07/23 07:56 *OUTOTEC WOULD EVALUATE ANY BIDS IF APPROACHED
BN 07/23 07:56 *OUTOTEC SAYS WOULD EVALUATE ANY BID THOROUGHLY IF ONE RECEIVED
BFW 07/23 07:56 *OUTOTEC NOT APPROACHED OR RECEIVED A BID
BN 07/23 07:56 *OUTOTEC SAYS NOT APPROACHED BY WEIR GROUP
BN 07/23 07:56 *OUTOTEC NOT APPROACHED OR RECEIVED A BID
BN 07/23 07:55 *OUTOTEC NOT APPROACHED
BN 07/23 07:55 *OUTOTEC COMMENTS ON MKT RUMORS
Outotec Oyj: Outotec comments on market rumors
2014-07-23 07:55:54.368 GMT

Outotec Oyj: Outotec comments on market rumors

OUTOTEC OYJ  STOCK EXCHANGE RELEASE   JULY 23, 2014  at 10.55 AM

Outotec comments on market rumors

Outotec notes that there has been speculation in the media this morning
concerning a potential bid for Outotec by The Weir Group Plc.

Outotec has not been approached or received a bid for a potential combination
of the two companies. Should Outotec receive these types of proposals the
Board of Directors of Outotec would evaluate them thoroughly and issue a Stock
Exchange Release regarding the matter.

OUTOTEC

Pertti Korhonen, CEO
Tel. +358 20 529 211

DISTRIBUTION:
NASDAQ OMX Helsinki
Main media
www.outotec.com

(UBS) Will Weir bid for Outotec ? not likely

Weir
Will Weir bid for Outotec? Not likely

* Weir bid for Outotec not likely in our view
Press reports (incl. The Times) have suggested that Weir is considering a bid for Finnish
mining equipment company Outotec. In our view while feasible from a financial
perspective, the industrial logic appears less clear. Outotec provides engineering
services to mining companies (a bit like an EPC) and as such has a different business
model to Weir who sell product and then farm the aftermarket. We believe that the
Weir management team are keen to continue an acquisitive expansion strategy but
acquisitions in the unconventional oil & gas flow control segment may be more
feasible. Weir officially are making "no comment".

* The maths on an Outotec bid
Outotec has an €1.4bn market cap (c£1.1bn) and on consensus estimates will have net
cash of c€95m at end 2014E, suggesting an overall staring EV of c£1bn. It is on a
2015E consensus EV/EBIT of c13x, although on more cautious UBS estimates this is
more like 15x. "thisismoney.co.uk" suggests a possible bid at €12 per share, which
would equate to an EV of over €2bn and consensus EV/EBIT of c21x15E based on
consensus and c24x on UBSe – this looks too high in our view and would suggest no
EPS accretion. If synergies at 5% of sales were possible, then the EV/EBIT could fall to
more like 12-13x and the deal could be c10% EPS accretive. However, the industrial
logic on the deal would appear less than on the recent Metso bid and as such it is
questionable whether this level of synergies could be achieved.

* Could Weir afford it – Yes, in our view
We estimate that Weir could add c£1bn of debt temporarily by going to c3x net debt /
ebitda suggesting that a capital increase may be needed, but not a very large one.

* Valuation: £28 price target
Weir price target set on 14x EV/EBITA 2014E.

(Oddo) HAVAS - upgrade to BUY / Q2 to exceed forecasts.

ODDO - HAVAS - upgrade to BUY / Q2 to exceed forecasts.

HAVAS (market cap €2.3bn) – upgrade to BUY. 20% upside on our €7 TP.

* Unlike Publicis, Havas is likely to surprise positively on Q2 (e LFL +5% vs
cons. +4% vs Q1 +3%), which could lead consensus to upgrade their forecasts
(solid net new business, improved US, football impact, relatively dynamic
advertising WW).
* We raise our EPS 014/15 by an average 5%, which puts us 5% above consensus.
* In the attached note, we identify numerous levers for margin growth and book
a long-term EBIT margin of 15.5% vs 15% previously (vs 13.8% in 13 and e14.3%
in 14).
* We forecast net cash of €80m by end 15 which we expect to trigger a buy back
by Bollore. This would reflect a similar scenario to the 2012 buyback (12%)
which boosted EPS by 11% and re-rated the share price (AMF again likely to
comply with not forcing a take over as Bollore owns 36%).
* “Self help” in the US has led to solid contract gains (ie Green Mountain
Coffee, Liberty Mutual and Dish) at Havas Worldwide which should accelerate H2
as management changes continue to have effect (eQ2 +2% vs Q1 +3.7%). Arnold will continue to suffer despite a recent gain (John Frida).
* The world advertising market is expected to grow by av. 5.5% over next 3
years.
* Despite our recent message of caution on advertising trends in France (e25%
of sales), Havas has been gaining new clients thanks to the BETC agency (Louis
Vuitton, Total and a new Air France campaign). The endless IPOs and M&As have
been very beneficial to Havas. This is reflected in our forecasts Q2 (Europe e
+4.1% vs Q1 +2.3%)
* Speculative – the last remaining independent advertising agency.
* VALUATION is attractive (15 P/E/ 13.6x vs 10 year av. 17.4x / EV/EBITA 9.2x
vs 10.9x, EV/EBITDA 7.8x vs 8.7x / EV/sales in line with average 1.3x).

(Exane) CGG : More radical surgery needed: 12 suggestions

Indebted margin laggard faces severe difficulties as downward cycle starts to bite; we suggest 12
potential remedies to generate upside

- Seismic still in a tough spot; cutting estimates; 2016 targets looking tough
Marine seismic faces headwinds from lower demand and still rising supply – winter looks tough.
These headwinds together with slow demand at Sercel lead us to cut our EBIT estimates by 19-
33% for ‘14E-‘16E. We are a long way short of CGG’s 2016 targets (>20% below at the EBIT
level), but find this at least partly priced in. We cut our TP to EUR8.5/sh (from EUR11), set at 9.5x
‘2016E EV/EBIT

- Net debt a risk given earnings sensitivity to slowing end market
CGG is in the midst of its third strategic phase, focusing on improving margins in its Acquisition
division by retiring vessels and reducing its land seismic activity. However, net debt is too high
given earnings volatility and increasing sector headwinds. We estimate a 10% fall in marine pricing
and multi-client sales would put CGG on the edge of its covenant threshold of 3x net debt /
EBITDA.

- We set out 12 recommendations for CGG to go further
Our suggestions range from compensation, specific ideas for business lines and altering the high
risk financial structure. In particular, we think the multi-client business can do better. We also
question whether restructuring of the Acquisition division is ambitious enough – once we adjust for
accounting factors, we still find that CGG’s targets leave its underlying margins >10% below
smaller peers such as Polarcus and Dolphin.

- The reward
Even a partial closing of performance gaps vs peers could add >USD150m to EBITDA and
>USD100m to EBIT, we estimate. Using a historic EBITA multiple of 9.5x, an additional USD100m
of EBIT represents EUR4 per share.

FT : Hollywood frets over Fox-Time Warner deal

Hollywood frets over Fox-Time Warner deal

Signage is displayed for the FOX Galaxy Parking garage outside of 20th Century Fox Studios in Los Angeles, California, U.S., on on Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2013. News Corp., the parent company of Fox Entertainment Group Inc., is scheduled to announce quarterly earnings results on Feb. 6, following the close of U.S. financial markets. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg©Bloomberg
In Hollywood, where a box office dud can sound the death knell for even the starriest career, anxiety is as much a part of life as red carpet premieres and tearful speeches at the Oscars.
The anxiety level ticked up several notches last week when news broke of an unsolicited $73bn bid by Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox group for Time Warner. The deal would combine two of Hollywood’s largest film studios – 20th Century Fox and Warner Brothers – and create a film company responsible for about a third of all US box-office sales and blockbuster franchises ranging from Batman to X-Men, Harry Potter to Avatar.

21st Century Fox has said it would maintain the independence of 20th Century Fox and Warner Brothers, two Los Angeles neighbours but, for decades, fierce rivals and competitors. “The proposal is designed to preserve and protect the creative identities of each of the businesses,” said a person close to the company.
But behind the scenes the proposed 21st Century Fox purchase has caused alarm in the creative community that is Hollywood’s engine. “We are adamantly opposed to the idea,” says David Young, executive director of the Writers Guild of America West, which represents screenwriters.
“We think it’s a disaster for talent in Hollywood and bad social policy,” he adds. “Markets are efficient when there are a lot of people in them buying and selling. If markets get consolidated and there’s a concentration of power what we will see is writers being paid less to create and consumers having to pay more.”
In the past 12 months Warner Bros and 20th Century Fox have been two of the three best performing studios, releasing hits this year such as The Lego Movie and X-Men: Days of Future Past. They are among the six main studios currently operating in Hollywood, competing alongside Walt Disney, Sony Pictures, Paramount and Universal.

21st Century Fox’s bid has been rejected by Time Warner, which this week moved to block a potential hostile takeover by amending its bylaws and scrapping a rule that would allow investors to call a shareholder meeting.
But if 21st Century Fox returns with an offer that wins the approval of the Time Warner board, the six studios will effectively become five.
Once 21st Century Fox declared its offer could generate $1bn of savings, speculation started about how a combination of the two studios would work – particularly if Warner Bros and 20th Century Fox are to continue operating independently. “You could combine home entertainment and distribution of the two studios and leave all production and marketing operations intact,” says a rival studio executive.
The angst generated by a potential combination of the studios is not confined to writers. “It’s definitely not good for talent,” says an agent responsible for landing clients plum roles. “We’re going to have to be more creative about what we do [with the studios] and how we get projects financed.”
The possible 21st Century Fox-Time Warner combination would also bring together the two largest suppliers of television programming, responsible for shows such as Modern Family and The Big Bang Theory.
“In our view it will be a violation of antitrust law,” says Mr Young, who says the combined company would supply 40 per cent of television series shown in America. The guild has hired legal experts to represent it in front of antitrust regulators, he adds. “This is a merger that we absolutely have to stop.”

21st Century Fox has indicated it would sell CNN, Time Warner’s cable news channel, if its bid is successful. But it does not intend to dispose of either of the two studios because it believes the combination would not violate antitrust law. People familiar with the company say it has been advised that a six to five merger would not be contentious.
Still, there are other factors to consider, assuming 21st Century Fox succeeds with an improved bid. Culturally, the two studios are different places to work and each has long-term relationships with key talent that are impossible to replicate. Warner Bros has had a relationship with Clint Eastwood that has spanned decades while Christopher Nolan, the director of The Dark Knight and Inception, has also made the studio his home.
It is unclear what impact a 21st Century Fox takeover would have on those relationships – or, indeed, if another buyer for Time Warner will emerge, now that Mr Murdoch has shown his hand. Uncertainty, alongside the everyday anxiety, is now firmly part of the Hollywood mix.

>>> Max Petroleum launches strategic review, Blackstone running sale

Max Petroleum launches strategic review, Blackstone running sale - Full Document {http://bit.ly/WClKVC}
Max Petroleum today announces that it is launching a review of strategic options open to the Company with the intention of maximising value for shareholders.

The review of strategic options may include a corporate transaction such as a merger with, acquisition of or subscription for the Company's securities by a third party, a sale of the business or a farm down or disposal of assets. Discussions in relation to a merger with a third party or a sale of the Company will take place within the context of a "formal sale process" in accordance with Note 2 on Rule 2.6 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Code"), such that the Board of Max Petroleum is able to have discussions with third parties interested in such a transaction on a confidential basis.

The formal sale process

The Company has appointed Blackstone Group International Partners LLP ("Blackstone") as exclusive financial adviser to conduct the formal sale process. Parties with a potential interest in making an offer for, merging with or proposing other forms of corporate transaction with, Max Petroleum should contact Blackstone (contact details as set out below).

Any interested party will be required to enter into a non-disclosure agreement with the Company on reasonable terms satisfactory to the Board and on the same terms, in all material respects, as the other interested parties before being permitted to participate in the process. Following execution of an agreed non-disclosure agreement, the Company intends to provide interested parties with information materials on the Company. Following receipt of the materials, interested parties shall be invited to submit proposals to the Company.

The Board reserves the right to alter any aspect of the process as outlined above or to terminate it at any time and will make further announcements as appropriate. The Board reserves the right to reject any approach or terminate discussions with any interested party or participant at any time.

Accounting and finance update

In line with the Company's announcement on 12 June 2014 of estimated proved and probable reserves of 9.5m barrels of oil equivalent in proved and probable ("2P") reserves as at 31 March 2014, as estimated by its Competent Person Ryder Scott Company, it expects there will be an impairment of the total value of the oil and gas and capitalised exploration assets of the Company, reported to be USD 299.6m as of 30 September 2013, when the Company's financial results as of 31 March 2014 are announced in August 2014. A non-cash impairment charge of USD 64.6m against capitalised exploration costs allocated to its post-salt assets is expected to be made to reflect the limited exploration potential of its post-salt assets.

A possible additional non-cash impairment charge of up to USD 113.0m for the Company's pre-salt assets is also being evaluated. No final decision has been made and this possible pre-salt impairment is dependent on the assessed likelihood of: i) financing a re-entry and completion of the Company's pre-salt exploration well, NUR-1, which was suspended in 2012 and requires USD 20-25m of additional capital; and ii) of gaining regulatory approval for an extension of the exploration period of the Blocks A&E Licence to complete NUR-1 beyond March 2015, when the current approval expires.

The Company also advises that negotiations with Sberbank remain ongoing to reset the technical production and reserves covenants under the Sberbank USD 90m credit facility (as announced with the Company's interim results on 30 December 2013) to reflect the current profile of reserves and production. The Company continues to meet its payment obligations under the facility.