>>> Vivendi - Strong Outperformance for the last 2 weeks.

I have been bullish on VIV for the last few weeks, and push it again after the correction 2 weeks ago, with last week move on the market and VIV Outperforming, we can see that there is still a stong interest on the stock...I strongly believe that today GVT news is a good catalyst but awaited from a long time...I still believe that the stock could trade higher in absolute term but could see some short Underperformance in relative term ( have a look to atatched chart ).

I will use any correction to add some more, any level below the 19 level is "add more" level.

{VIV FP Equity SX5E Index GRT D <GO>}

{VIV FP Equity SX5E Index RGIP 15 <GO>}

>>> Vivendi / GVT - Oddo comment

ODDO + VIVENDI (BUY, TP E24) TELEFONICA MAKES FORMAL OFFER FOR GVT: TEF confirms
this WE rumour and its subsidiary Telefonica Brazil makes a formal offer for
GVT at E6.7bn (offer is in real), 60% in cash, balance in Telefonica Brazil
share. Tef Brazil would issue new shares to finance the cash part of the deal,
TEF (74% holder) would participate and itself issue new shares through a
capital increase. Offer is valid till Sept 3rd, subject to relevant regulatory
authorizations, and TEF even mentions it could pay VIV... in TIT shares (1110m
shares, 8.3% of the Kal, a little less than E1bn.
OUR VIEW: obviously good news for VIV, even if the premium vs our GVT valuation
is not massive (we value GVT at E6.4bn, i.e E4.9 per VIV share) representing
only E0.3 per share. BUT we believe we are on top of consensus here. Can VIV
accept such an offer ? the board ackonwledges the offer eventhough it
reiterates that none of its units are for sale. We believe nevertheless it
could sell GVT (bear in mind it already tried to sell it at the very beginning
of the asset review at VIV 2 years ago) and believe a takeover battle TIT/TEF
is possible for it as a "fix/mobile" convergence deal in Brazil does make
sense. Note we understand that management of TIT was on the road recently and that they were quite "talkative" about GVT... More to come once I chat with
analyst, but there's clearly some hidden value in GVT. We reiterate (more than
ever) BUY reco on VIV, TP E24

>>> Asian Numbers today

Asian Numbers today :
- Consumer Discretionary: Daiichikosho 7458.JP +2.6% (Q1 results)
- Consumer staples: WH Group 288.HK +7.7% (IPO debut)
- Financials: Cinda International 111.HK +9.7% (H1 guidance); HSBC 5.HK +0.8% (H1 results); Greentown China 3900.HK -10.6% (H1 guidance); Bank of Yokohama 8332.JP -3.9% (Q1 results); NTT Urban Development Corp 8933.JP +4.8% (Q1 results); Yamaguchi Financial Group 8418.JP -1.9% (Q1 results); Suruga Bank 8358.JP -4.8% (Q1 results)
- Industrials: Brother Industries 6448.JP -3.5% (Q1 results); Isuzu Motors 7202.JP +4.8% (Q1 results); Japan Steel Works 5631.JP -7.7% (Q1 results); Downer DOW.AU -4.0% (FY14 results)
- Technology: Tamron 7740.JP +2.0% (Q2 results); Rakuten 4755.JP +5.1% (H1 results)

>>> What to look at today - 05/08/2014

US Market Closed Higher, Banco Espirito Santo bailout gave some more confidence about Europe to deal with issues, The top-weighted S&P 500 sector—technology (+0.7%)—ended in line with the benchmark index. Large cap listings displayed broad strength with Google (GOOGL 582.27, +8.67) and Microsoft (MSFT 43.37, +0.51) both adding near 1.3%, while Apple (AAPL 95.59, -0.54) lagged. The largest tech stock shed 0.6%, Industrial Underperformed (+0.3%), On the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+0.4%), health care (+0.5%), and telecom services (+0.6%) benefitted from the afternoon rally,
while the utilities sector (-0.6%) spent the entire trading day in the red to widen its third quarter loss to 7.1%, Like energy, the consumer discretionary sector (+1.0%) also added at least 1.0%. The group received all-around support as carmakers, homebuilders, and retailers rallied. Volume @ 661mil shares below average. VIX @ 15.12 -11.22% ...Today, June Factory Orders ( consensus 0.5%) and the ISM Services Index for July (consensus 56.5) will both be reported at 10:00...Early optimism that followed a rebound on Wall St has dissipated with the release of record-low HSBC services PMI figure from China. HSBC economist noted the "weakness in the headline number likely reflects the impact of the ongoing property slowdown in many cities as property related activity see less business... meanwhile, the employment and business sentiment indices remain stable." Separately, Chinese press speculated lending activity by China's top 4 banks in July would slow to CNY210B v CNY290B in June...
Asian Numbers today :
- Consumer Discretionary: Daiichikosho 7458.JP +2.6% (Q1 results)
- Consumer staples: WH Group 288.HK +7.7% (IPO debut)
- Financials: Cinda International 111.HK +9.7% (H1 guidance); HSBC 5.HK +0.8% (H1 results); Greentown China 3900.HK -10.6% (H1 guidance); Bank of Yokohama 8332.JP -3.9% (Q1 results); NTT Urban Development Corp 8933.JP +4.8% (Q1 results); Yamaguchi Financial Group 8418.JP -1.9% (Q1 results); Suruga Bank 8358.JP -4.8% (Q1 results)
- Industrials: Brother Industries 6448.JP -3.5% (Q1 results); Isuzu Motors 7202.JP +4.8% (Q1 results); Japan Steel Works 5631.JP -7.7% (Q1 results); Downer DOW.AU -4.0% (FY14 results)
- Technology: Tamron 7740.JP +2.0% (Q2 results); Rakuten 4755.JP +5.1% (H1 results)


Eur$ 1.3425 S&P -0.15% EuroStoxx +0.16% FTSE -0.02% SMI +0.02% Dax +0.30%

Macro
- HSBC China July Services PMI 50 vs 53.1 in June
- HSBC India July Composite PMI 53 vs 53.8 in June
- KKR Expects European M&A Market to Gain Traction: Handelsblatt
- Russia May Restrict Overflights as Sanctions Response: Vedomosti
- ZEW President Says Banking Union Could Stabilize Europe: HB

Keep an eye on :
- AKTAV FH : Aktia Bank Boosts Capital Ratio, EPS; Net Interest Income Drops
- SPR GY : Axel Springer 2Q Rev, Ebitda Beat; Reiterates Full Year Forecast
- BALN SW : Baloise Sees 1H Profit up More than 40% to More Than CHF340m
- BES PL : Novo Banco could stay in state hands for up to two years- report
- BIM IM : Banca IPIBI and BIM sale could be announced this week
- BMSA GY : Braas Monier 1H LFL Revenue Growth 6%, Confirms 2014 Outlook
- BMW GY : BMW 2Q Profit Beats Est., Rev. Misses; Confirms Forecast (1114 -1.25% in HK)
- BWO NO : BW Offshore Signs Documentation for New $800M Bank Loan Facility
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole 2Q Profit Misses Ests. on Espirito Santo Costs
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole Entering Talks With U.S. Over OFAC Review: CEO
- DAI GY : China Antitrust Regulator Inspects Mercedes Office: Jiemian
- DPW GY : Deutsche Post 2Q Profit Beats; Sets 2016 Ebit Target
- DTE GY : Deutsche Telekom Said Unimpressed by Iliad’s TMUS Bid: Reuters
- DSM NA : DSM 2Q Ebitda Cont. Operations Ex-Items EU293m, Estimate EU301m, Says 2Q Improvement at Nutrition vs Last 2 Quarters
- DVR LN : De Vere Group believed to have agreed to GBP 162m sale of six golf resorts to Sankaty Advisors
- EUZ GY : Eckert & Ziegler BEBIG 1H Net Loss EU967,000 Vs EU658,000 Profit
- GLPG BB : Galapagos Gets Osteoarthritis Milestone Payment From Servier
- GSK LN : Rumored to be a target for Pfizer - Daily Express - the Guardian
- HSBA LN : HSBC Rises in Hong Kong After CEO Predicts Revenue Rebound
- ILD FP : Deutsche Telekom Said Unimpressed by Iliad’s TMUS Bid: Reuters
- LG FP : Lafarge, Holcim Propose Sale of 3 Brazilian Cement Plants
- MEO GY : Metro In Talks to Sell Vietnam Cash & Carry Unit: WSJ (Yday)
- OERL SW : Oerlikon 2Q Ebit, Orders Rise; Confirms 2014 Forecasts
- PFV GY : Pfeiffer Vacuum 2Q Sales, Orders Drop; Confirms Forecast
- 1913 HK : Prada PT Cut to HKD57.8 at Mediobanca; Kept at Neutral ( -1.19%)
- RHI AV : RHI 2Q Sales and Profit Fall on Sluggish Market, Restructuring
- RHJ GY : Deutsche Bank Sells Stake in RHJ as Oddo & Cie Boosts Holding
- ROD FP : Rodriguez Group declared bankrupt, could find buyer for Camper and Nicholsons activities
- SLR SM : Solaria 1H Net EU4.4m vs Loss EU2.8m Y/y
- TKA GY : ThyssenKrupp Job Cuts at Italy Mill Said on Hold: Reuters Link
- TNET BB : Telenet Attractive Cash Return in Sight, Nomura Says; Rates Buy
- UCG IM : UniCredit to Decide on Pioneer Sale in September: Repubblica
- VIV FP : Telefonica Says Made Offer for Vivendi's GVT Unit, €6.7bil, Vivendi Confirms Bid;Says Board Will Study Offer From Telefonica
- VCT FP : Vicat 1H Rev. EU1.22b vs Est. EU1.16b

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades

>>> Up
*ARKEMA RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA; PT CUT TO EU75
*FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*GEA GROUP RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*HANNOVER RE RAISED TO HOLD VS REDUCE AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT LIBERUM
*L'OREAL RAISED TO STRONG BUY VS OUTPERFORM AT RAYMOND JAMES
*REN RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN

>>> Down
*BANCO ESPIRITO SANTO CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*ILIAD CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*TNT EXPRESS CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT CANTOR

>>> PT Changes
* NYRSTAR PT RAISED TO EU3 VS EU2.80 AT ING
* Prada PT Cut to HKD57.8 at Mediobanca; Kept at Neutral
* Prysmian PT Cut to EU18.5 at Morgan Stanley; Kept at Overweight

>>> Initiation


>>> Call
>> Stock
*MONEYSUPERMARKET ENTERS CITI UK SMALL & MID-CAP KEY BUY LIST
*TELECITY GROUP REMOVED FROM UBS MIDCAP KEY CALL LIST

>>> Allergan could be eyeing one or more companies as potential targets

Allergan could be eyeing one or more companies as potential targets

Allergan, an Irvine, California-based pharmaceutical company, could be eyeing a number of different drug companies as potential buys, according to an Orange County Business Journal report.

The report cited analysts who mentioned Salix Pharmaceuticals, Actavis, Jazz Pharmaceuticals and Perrigo as potential targets for Allergan.

Future deals have been discussed ever since a bid by Valeant Pharmaceuticals to take over Allergan fizzled, the report said.

Tim Lugo, an analyst with William Blair & Co. who was quoted in the story, said that an acquisition by Allergan could help fight a potential takeover attempt by Valeant.

The report also mentioned a comment made by Allergan CEO David Pyott during a recent earnings call that his company is pursuing various options when it comes to acquisitions.

Analyst David Maris with BMO Securities said in the report that Allergan sounded confident in its ability to complete one or more deals in the next few months.

Allergan has USD 3.2bn in cash as of 30, June, the report said.


Source Orange County Business Journal

>>> Rodriguez Group declared bankrupt, could find buyer for Camper and Nicholson

Rodriguez Group declared bankrupt, could find buyer for Camper and Nicholsons activities

Rodriguez Group, a French-listed luxury yacht manufacturer, and its SNP Boat Service subsidiary, have been declared bankrupt by the commercial court of Cannes, the French daily Les Echos wrote citing no source. The report said Rodriguez was placed into receivership in January last but could not convince investors.

For 2013 Rodriguez reported turnover of EUR 56.7m, down 27% compared to 2012, with losses of EUR 18.5m. Total debts are EUR 96.5m, the report added. Rodriguez Group builds new yachts and sells second-hand boats plus operates a services activity.

Reason for the problems are a lot of second–hand boats that are hard to sell, and that results in a negative balance sheet.

For the first semester 2014, revenues were down by 25.9% to EUR 15.7m as no new yachts have been sold.

The Florida -based Camper & Nicholson subsidiary, specialized in the chartering and brokerage of yachts on the US market, could well find a buyer, the report said giving no more details.

Source Les Echos

>>> GSK rumoured to be potential target for Pfizer

GSK rumoured to be potential target for Pfizer

Pfizer, the New York City-headquartered listed biopharma group, is rumoured to be a possible bidder for the UK-listed rival GlaxoSmithKline, The Daily Express reported. The market report did not cite a source for the information but noted that Pfizer attempted in vain to acquire the UK-listed AstraZeneca earlier in the year.

The Guardian’s Market Forces Live blog said Berenberg analysts pointed out that Pfizer had been willing to pay USD 120bn to acquire AstraZeneca, and GSK has a market capitalisation of USD 117bn following a drop in its share price. Pfizer’s market cap is approximately USD 183bn, the analysts noted. They added that Pfizer would need to offer a premium which, based on similar terms to Pfizer’s last AstraZeneca offer, would mean a bid of around USD 164bn.

While the deal may be too rich for Pfizer, which would likely need to come up with USD 74bn cash, it could prove very beneficial, the analysts said, pointing in particular to GSK’s relatively low tax rate.
Source Daily Express, The Guardian

>>> Novo Banco could stay in state hands for up to two years

Novo Banco could stay in state hands for up to two years

Portugal's Resolution Fund, the new owner of Novo Banco, formerly Banco Espirito Santo (BES), has two years to sell the bank and repay EUR 4.4bn to the treasury of the EUR 4.9bn recapitalization, reported Diario Economico. Sources close to the situation told the Lusophone business paper that under the terms of its creation in 2012, the Resolution Fund has two years before being obliged to sell Novo Banco, despite potential political pressure for a quick transfer of the bank back to private hands.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Maria Albuquerque was cited by the paper as saying the Resolution Fund, created during the EUR 78bn troika bailout to support troubled national banks, is repaying EUR 4.4bn to the Treasury at 2.8% with a 15 bps spread. The Treasury Loan to Resolution Fund is renewable very three months up to a maximum two years, Albuquerque said.

Elsewhere, Jornal de Negocios reported that the overnight transition of BES to Novo Banco appeared to have passed smoothly across Portugal. BES now becomes the bad bank for the process of cleansing Novo Banco's of toxic assets. BPI Equity Research, meanwhile, said no clarification has been given by the Bank of Portugal on whether EUR 3.6bn in loans to BESA, the Angolan subsidiary of BES, will be included in the bad bank. Although the bad bank B\S should be able to accommodate this with the EUR 4.6bn funding vehicle, the BPI analysts said.


Source Diario Economico, Jornal de Negocios, BPI Equity Research