>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Japan retail sales spiked in March ahead of consumption tax rise; China industrial profits improve

***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN MAR RETAIL SALES M/M: 6.3% V 6.0%E; Y/Y: 11.0% (fastest rise since Mar 1997) V 10.8%E
- (CN) CHINA MAR INDUSTRIAL PROFITS YTD Y/Y: 10.7% V 9.4% PRIOR
- (TH) THAILAND MAR MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION M/M: -10.4% V -7.8%E
- (UK) UK APR HOMETRACK HOUSING SURVEY M/M: 0.6% V 0.6% PRIOR; Y/Y:6.0 % V 5.7% PRIOR

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT):
- Nikkei225 -1.2%, S&P/ASX %, Kospi %, Shanghai Composite -1.0%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Jun S&P500 +0.1% at 1,861, Jun gold +0.3% at $1,304, Jun crude oil +0.4% at $101.03/brl

***Highlights/Observations/Insights***
- Japan retail sales rose sharply in the month of March as consumers stocked up with last-minute shopping ahead of the start of higher sales tax on April 1st. For the year, the 11% jump was the fastest pace of increase since March of 1997. USD/JPY tracked slightly lower in the wake of the beat, falling about 10pips toward ¥102. Stronger data incrementally raise the possibility of the BOJ maintaining a neutral stance for longer than the currently expected late-summer announcement of further QE. Note the BOJ will unveil its latest policy decision and updated outlook on economy and inflation this coming Wednesday. Separately in Japan, the typically fiscally conservative Fin Min Aso acknowledged corporate taxes may have to be lowered to maintain corporate competitiveness.

- Also in economic data, China announced slightly improved Ytd growth in industrial profits. Subsequent reports indicated that only a handful of industries saw a profitable Q1, mainly auto manufacturing, power generation, and telecommunication equipment production. Among some of the other notable press reports from the mainland, China State Information Center (SIC) estimated Q2 GDP growth in line with that of Q1 at 7.4%. In terms of China IPO pipeline, the volume of filings was speculated to rise to nearly 500, about 5x the number announced last week. In large China financials, China Construction Bank's Q1 net profit rose to CNY65.9B v CNY59.7B y/y, but non-performing loans also rose 3bps to 1.02%. CCB traded up about 0.8%.

- In Australia, shares of Goodman Fielder spiked up nearly 20% after the company rebuffed a takeover proposal from Wilmar International, announcing the offer materially undervalues company. On the macro front, CBA business confidence index fell to 35 for Mar quarter from 47 in Dec quarter, though resident economist noted that capex and labor hiring are still expected to increase.

- In other notable M&A flows, Siemens interrupted the GE takeover of Alstom assets, announcing it wants to discuss "future strategic opportunities" and would be willing to match or top GE's offer. Alstom requested a trading halt until Wednesday, at which point it will make an announcement having held talks with govt officials and conducted extensive strategic review. Also of note, FT reported Pfizer may once again approach AstraZeneca with a bid as high as $100B coming as early as this week, even though the company dodged last week's tie-up speculation by noting those talks had gone "dormant" for months.

- Eastern Ukraine situation continued to simmer this weekend, with tensions escalated by detainment of OSCE inspectors by the pro-Russian separatists. The rebels announced they could be seen as "prisoners of war" and demanded an exchange from the Kiev govt. G7 is said to be preparing another wave of sanctions to be unveiled as early as Monday that would target Russia's defense ministry and companies close to Putin. Pres Obama's NSA adviser Blinken once again ruled out assistance through weaponry, stating "it wouldn't make a difference in terms of their (Ukrainians) ability to stand up to the Russians."

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies***
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥250B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥250B in 3-5yr JGB and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB as wells ¥2.5T in T-bills
- (KR) South Korea govt (MOF) sells KRW850B in 20-yr govt bonds; avg yield: 3.740%; bid-to-cover 4.541x
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1565 v 6.1576 prior setting (4th consecutive firmer Yuan setting, strongest setting since Apr 14th)

***Equities***
US markets:
- ALO.FR: Siemens said to be prepared to match or beat Alstom offer with GE; Wants to discuss "future strategic opportunities" - financial press
- AZN: Pfizer said to be express renewed interest to acquire AstraZeneca; Bid at over $100B could come as early as this week - FT
- CMCSA: $20B deal between Comcast, Time Warner could be announced this week - FT
- MRK: Said to be in final stages of negotiation to sell its consumer health unit for nearly $14B - financial press

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Zhejiang Shibao 1057.HK -1.9% (Q1 results); 21 Holdings 1003.HK -11.1% (private placement plan)
- Financials: Agricultural Bank of China 1288.HK +1.3% (Q1 results); China Construction Bank 939.HK +0.8% (Q1 results); China Life Insurance 2628.HK -1.7% (Q1 results)
- Materials: Angang Steel 347.HK -1.9% (Q1 results)
- Energy: Tap Oil TAP.AU +7.5% (announces debt facility); Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology 002202.CN +2.6% (Q1 results); Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery 568.HK -4.0% (Q1 results)
- Industrials: Honda Motor 7267.JP -4.2% (FY13/14 results)
- Technology: Japan Display 6740.JP -13.1% (cuts FY13/14 guidance)

WSJ : Pfizer to Pursue Bid for AstraZeneca

Pfizer to Pursue Bid for AstraZeneca Pfizer Inc. PFE +0.13% plans to pursue a bid for AstraZeneca AZN.LN -2.28% PLC, according to people familiar with the matter, eyeing a tie-up that would create a roughly $300 billion pharmaceutical giant and fuel an already booming year for merger-and-acquisition activity, particularly in health care.

An announcement of New York-based Pfizer's intention to pursue a deal for its U.K. rival is imminent, the people said. With AstraZeneca's market capitalization exceeding $85 billion, a deal could easily be valued at more than $100 billion.

A pairing of Pfizer and AstraZeneca would create a company with drugs treating most of the major maladies, including diabetes, heart disease and rheumatoid arthritis. It would combine Pfizer's targeted cancer therapies, such as Xalkori treating a form of lung cancer, with AstraZeneca's promising drug that aims to attack cancer using the body's immune system. The industry considers such immunotherapies to be the next wave of lucrative cancer treatments.

Pfizer's overture represents a renewed effort by the company to make a go at AstraZeneca, as it earlier this year tried to ignite a deal, one of the people said.

The Financial Times earlier reported on Pfizer's intentions.

Pfizer's interest comes during a rush of deal making, particularly in health care. Last week, announced deal volume world-wide crossed $1 trillion for this year. That made this the fourth-quickest year to cross the trillion-dollar mark and the fastest since 2007, according to data provider Dealogic.

Just last week, Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. announced its offer to buy rival Allergan Inc. for nearly $46 billion, while Novartis AG sealed more than $20 billion in deals to sell and exchange businesses with GlaxoSmithKline PLC and Eli Lilly & Co.

Pfizer is one of the industry's biggest deal makers, and a takeover of AstraZeneca could mark its largest deal since it bought Warner-Lambert for $90 billion in 2000. Pfizer would be hoping that by linking with AstraZeneca the companies together could better overcome each firm's loss of billions of dollars in sales from expiring blockbusters and return to the heady growth they saw a decade ago. But at their current sizes, each company has found it difficult to find new products to drive significant growth.

In acquiring AstraZeneca, Pfizer could deploy its cash pile overseas. The company has been trying to find a use for its overseas cash because bringing it back to the U.S. would mean a hefty tax bill.

But both companies are losing revenue, not growing. Each company's revenue fell 6% last year; Pfizer had $51.6 billion in 2013 sales, while AstraZeneca notched $25.7 billion. And each is facing the loss of billions of dollars in additional sales over the next few years as more aging products lose patent protection.

AstraZeneca alone is staring at losing $12.3 billion in sales from existing products by 2022, according to ISI Group analyst Mark Schoenebaum. Pfizer's Celebrex painkiller, which generated $798 million in sales last year, could start facing generic competition by the end of this year.

The fact that both Pfizer and AstraZeneca, each the product of megamergers, are still coping with aging pipelines suggests that such big deals may provide an opportunity to cut costs but don't always propel growth long term.

Although showing promise, their pipelines of drugs in development are risky. And even when the companies have won approval for promising new drugs in recent years, the results have sometimes not met Wall Street's expectations.

AstraZeneca's Brilinta heart-attack drug was expected to tally more than $2 billion in yearly sales, but last year it recorded just $283 million in sales. Two of Pfizer's new drugs, Xeljanz and Eliquis, had rocky starts. Both companies have said the drugs are progressing and they are still counting on them for significant growth.

Last week, after London's Sunday Times first reported on the earlier interest of Pfizer, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot sidestepped questions regarding a potential hook-up between the two companies. But he spoke negatively about big deals generally. "Large mergers and acquisitions sometimes work, but they are often very disruptive, so we are better focusing on what we do well and partnering where it makes sense," he said on an earnings call.

"We focus ourselves on doing our job as best we can and developing new medicines for patients," Mr. Soriot said during the call. "Hopefully we will be successful in doing this, and our share price will reflect this. That is the best way for us to remain an independent company."

A Pfizer takeover of AstraZeneca would be one of the biggest-ever foreign purchases of a British company. Adding to the challenges facing the U.S. company in its effort to pull off the deal, under U.K. takeover rules, Pfizer could be forced to come up with a fully financed, formal bid for AstraZeneca in a relatively narrow time frame, or walk away. That could be a tall order given the sheer size of AstraZeneca and the amount of cash or stock—or combination of the two—such a bid would require. It's not clear how much of that groundwork Pfizer has already laid, however, given that it has had the British company in its sights for some time.

After taking the helm of AstraZeneca in October 2012, Mr. Soriot has been trying to prepare the company to move past the loss of top-selling products including schizophrenia treatment Seroquel and heartburn remedy Nexium.

Mr. Soriot, a former chief operating officer at Roche AG, has cut costs at AstraZeneca, laying off thousands of employees, and tried to replenish the company's drug pipeline by doing small deals to bring in promising new treatments for cancer, diabetes and heart and inflammatory diseases. The stock is up about 33% over the last year, handily outpacing the broader market.

Pfizer CEO Ian Read, who took charge of Pfizer in 2010, has also cut costs at the company and shed its infant-formula and animal-health businesses to focus on prescription drugs for humans. He has divided the company into three businesses in a bid to get its parts growing faster and potentially break them apart. Pfizer shares over the last year are up a couple percent.

FT : Pfizer renews bid interest in AstraZeneca

Pfizer renews bid interest in AstraZeneca

Pfizer, the US pharmaceuticals group, has renewed its interest in a takeover of UK rival AstraZeneca, in what would be one of the global drugs industry’s largest ever deals. The US group approached AstraZeneca, which has a market value of £51.5bn ($86.6bn), within the last week and could make a public declaration of its interest in a takeover as early as this week, said people familiar with the matter. Going public would be a move designed to put pressure on AstraZeneca’s board to engage in discussions. Pfizer first telegraphed its interest four months ago, when it asked the UK group to consider a takeover. The overture was rebuffed, however, and no formal talks took place. The exact value Pfizer is placing on AstraZeneca could not be ascertained, but people familiar with the matter said a bid would be likely to come in at more than $100bn. This would make it the biggest pharma deal since Pfizer’s $111.8bn takeover of Warner-Lambert in 2000. People close to the situation cautioned that there was no guarantee of a public declaration by Pfizer. The move comes at a time of renewed corporate activity in the sector as drugmakers look to deploy large cash piles and cheap debt to strengthen their positions in an increasingly competitive market. A takeover of AstraZeneca would be easily the biggest foreign acquisition of a British company. UK politicians have raised concern over the implications for jobs and investment since news of Pfizer’s earlier tentative interest emerged last week. AstraZeneca is at the heart of Britain’s life-science sector, employing about 7,000 people in the country and accounting for more than 2 per cent of exported goods. Pascal Soriot, AstraZeneca chief executive, last week set out plans for the possible sale or spin-off of non-core assets worth up to $15bn in an apparent attempt to shore up investor support for his turnround efforts after years of falling sales. Shares in the company have climbed a quarter over the past six months amid rising optimism over its strengthening innovation pipeline. Analysts cite AstraZeneca’s growing potential in high-value cancer drugs as one of the main attractions for Pfizer. The US company’s desire to find a tax-efficient outlet for tens of billions of dollars in offshore cash is widely seen as another motivation. Pfizer and AstraZeneca declined to comment. Mergers and acquisitions in the healthcare sector have picked up over the past year. Activity intensified last week when Valeant and the activist investor Bill Ackman teamed up to launch a $45bn unsolicited bid for Allergan, the maker of Botox, while GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis agreed a $20bn asset swap. US drugmaker Mylan launched a fresh $9bn bid for Sweden’s Meda and Zimmer agreed to acquire rival medical products maker Biomet for $13.4bn. Reckitt Benckiser of the UK, meanwhile, is among the contenders to buy the consumer healthcare business being auctioned by Merck & Co for up to $14bn. The value of healthcare deals is at more than $150bn globally for the year to date, according to data from Dealogic. The surge has helped push the overall M&A market above the $1tn mark – the first time since 2007 that it has reached that level by this point in the year. Addressing reporters last week, Mr Soriot refused to discuss the Pfizer speculation but said AstraZeneca remained "extremely committed" to the UK, where it is building a big new research and development centre in Cambridge. He also highlighted the risks involved in big mergers. "Large acquisitions sometimes can work but sometimes they are very disruptive so I think we are better off focusing on what we do well and partnering in other areas," he said.

FT : Oligarchs snap up London property

Oligarchs snap up London property

Wealthy Russians and Ukrainians are trying to shift more cash into London property, say estate agents, amid indications that eastern European oligarchs are using the capital’s housing market to conceal their assets from international sanctions. Property advisers JLL estimates that Russian capital flight could quadruple year-on-year. Adam Challis, its head of residential research, said: "Wealthy Russians and Ukrainians have been identifying safe locations for wealth preservation since the start of the year." Russian buyers spent about £180m in the London housing market in 2013, according to estimates from Savills. Many agents expect this year’s figure to be sharply higher, as the current wave of prospective buyers finalise their purchases. Roarie Scarisbrick, director of the buying agent Property Vision, said: "A lot of the Russian clients we have been talking to over the last couple of years, who had just been considering buying here, have stepped up their plans and are getting on with it." Mr Challis said the Treasury had been "surprised by the number of property holders that have retained ownership structures through a corporate vehicle". Despite a recent tax crackdown by George Osborne, the chancellor, many eastern Europeans still buy their London homes through a company structure to preserve their anonymity, according to tax advisers and housing market agents. This use of offshore companies makes property assets harder for any international financial sanctions regime to target. Charles McDowell, a property finder for wealthy buyers, said buying through a company structure was popular because "should there be any freezing of assets or something similar, they are as protected as they can be". "We have certainly seen an upturn in Russian buyers as well as eastern Europeans generally," he said. "Russians in particular are nervous about how any escalation in sanctions might affect them." Michael Morris, a partner in Channel Islands law firm Collas Crill who advises rich international home buyers, said they purchase through a company because "the Land Registry is a public register and if you are extremely wealthy you may not want people to know where your home is". David Cameron wants to remove the "cloak of secrecy" hiding corruption and tax evasion, and the government has just announced details of a new public register of beneficial interests. The rules aim to force UK companies to reveal the names of their owners, but experts are doubtful that they will be effective. Gavin Hayman, director of campaigns at Global Witness, an anti-corruption group, said the government’s new register would "help a bit" with targeting sanctions but would not be the complete solution because ownership could still be obscured using offshore companies. He said it would be worth exploring the case for requiring the Land Registry to list the beneficial ownership of property. Bill Dodwell, of Deloitte, the professional services group, said: "The general sense is that if complete privacy is important you wouldn’t be using a UK company in the first place." Many property-owning companies are based in tax havens, although these have a relatively good record for collecting information on corporate ownership. But nearly 2m companies are formed each year in the US, almost always without obtaining the names of the people who will control them. Property agents are required to perform additional anti-money laundering checks on "politically-exposed" people, including those with close links to foreign governments, although the authorities have long been concerned about the difficulty of identifying potentially suspect real estate transactions. George Osborne launched an initial crackdown on homes owned through companies in 2012, introducing a tax on dwellings held in a corporate envelope. It has been highly successful, raising five times the sum the government expected. Mr Osborne further tightened the tax rules on properties owned through companies in this year’s Budget. Richard White, head of UK real estate at advisory firm KPMG, said: "The tax law changes are based on an assumption that such structures are solely there for tax avoidance purposes. "However, there can be other, non-tax related reasons for high-profile individuals acquiring their ­private property through companies, such as the desire to preserve anonymity. This can often be as a result of the political sentiment in their country of origin, which we frequently see with Russian and ­eastern European investors." Russians and eastern Europeans are particularly keen on buying large family homes on the Bishops Avenue in Highgate, north London, which is popularly known as "billionaires’ row". Jeremy Gee, a director of estate agent Glentree, specialises in selling homes in the area and is currently house-hunting for two "very serious buyers" arriving in London from Ukraine and looking to settle their families here quickly. Most Russian and Ukrainian owners of London homes hold them through companies in order to keep their identities private, Mr Gee said.

WSJ : BP: Disconnecting From the Operator


BP: Disconnecting From the Operator

There is little point in acting large and in charge if someone else is actually calling the shots.
Typically, a large oil or gas field will be owned by several partners, but only one operates it. So the behemoths of the oil and gas industry generally prefer to control and operate their main assets, rather than hand over the reins to a rival. Indeed, as competing oil-services firms and state-backed national oil companies have muscled in, management of complex energy projects has been touted as a raison d'être for the big oil companies.
But one in particular looks less like a master of its own destiny these days: BP.
The U.K. oil company derived only 30% of last year's output, after paying royalties, from assets in which it was the operator, according to data from sector consultant Rystad Energy. That is well shy of peers such as Chevron, at 74%, and Royal Dutch Shell, at 59%. It also is less than at Exxon Mobil, Total and Eni, which each got about 45% of their output from operated assets.
One big reason for this is Russia. A 20% stake in Kremlin-controlled Rosneft accounts for about one-third of BP's production. Though it claims some sway over Rosneft's operations, including BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley's seat on the Russian company's board, recent tensions around Ukraine have reawakened concerns about BP's exposure. Excluding the Rosneft stake, BP's share of production that it operates would be much closer to that of its rivals, though still below the average.
Another factor is the legacy of 2010's Macondo disaster and, in particular, BP's $38 billion in asset sales to help foot the bill. Indeed, it recently sold stakes in four small fields it operated in Alaska, a company stronghold for decades.
BP's overall production has fallen 20% since 2009, hitting 3.23 million barrels of oil equivalent a day last year. Disposals account for about two-thirds of the drop. While BP shed both operated and nonoperated positions, its Russian production has become a more significant chunk of total output.
The big oil companies can still exert behind-the-scenes influence over nonoperated projects. And BP's sale of smaller, more mature assets is in keeping with a broader industry shift of focusing on more profitable barrels, rather than growth at any price.
But BP has some catching up to do. Rystad forecasts a ramp-up in operated production, notably in the North Sea and North America, could mean that by 2020 BP's control over its output is in line with peers like Total and Eni.
The catch is that this costs money, at a time when oil and gas companies are coming under pressure from shareholders to reduce investment budgets.
BP's budget hasn't blown out in recent years like at some rivals. So it hasn't pledged cuts of its own. Yearly capital expenditures will stay between $24 billion and $26 billion to 2018. But Rystad estimates that, to hit the consultant's forecasts, BP's spending would need to rise to close to $30 billion by 2020, with substantial spending on discoveries BP has yet to sanction for development.
After years of big budgets, investors are rewarding big oil companies that can show self-control. For BP, however, a little spending may be the cost of regaining control of another kind.

>>> What to look at this week end - 26th & 27th Of april 2014


Macro
- Germany’s Schaeuble Says Tax Cuts Are Possible, Spiegel Reports
- ECB’s Nouy Expects This Year’s Bank Stress Tests Will Suffice
- Dutch Central Bank Chief Knot Isn’t in Favor of European QE: NRC

Keep an eye on :
- ALO FP : GE Board confirmed they have made binding offer, Siemens said to be willing to match, beat GE offer, GE Said to Have Done Due Diligence, Signed NDA on Alstom, GE Said to Emphasize Deal Certainty, Less Overlap in Alstom Bid
- ALO FP : Alstom Seeking a trading halt until Wednesday; To continue and deepen its strategic review, Will make further announcements no later than Wednesday morning. - France Pres Hollande gathers ministers for a cabinet meeting to discuss the impact of Alstom bids by Siemens and GE on jobs and other considerations
- BLT LN : X2 in talks regarding bid for BHP Billiton’s thermal coal business; lining up USD 8bn warchest via JPMorgan
- EI FP : Coastal Contacts Inc. Receives Competition Act clearance for acquisition by Essilor Int'l
- G IM : Generali Has Received Three Offers for BSI Group, Sole Reports
- MRK GY : Merck Said Near Consumer Unit Sale for $14 Billion: Reuters
- NOVN VX : Novartis CEO Planning More Acquisitions, Co. will invest more to expand pharmaceuticals, eyecare products, genericsSchweiz am Sonntag
- PMO LN : Premier Oil Rejected Two Approaches by Ophir Energy, Times Says
- PUB FP : Omnicom, Publicis Power Struggle Said to Threaten Deal: WSJ Link
- TLW LN +ve article in the Barron's, 25% Upside

FT : Encouraging signs that 2014 M&A spree is the real deal

Encouraging signs that 2014 M&A spree is the real deal

Wall Street Illustrations©Bloomberg
The M&A boom of 2007 was, with hindsight, the final flourish of a financial system that had become chronically over exuberant. Corporate confidence, skilfully marshalled by dealmakers, pushed the value of global M&A to $1.4tn during the first four months of that year – far more than in any year before or since, until now.
The past month has been dominated by claims, from Wall Street to the City of London and beyond, that dealmaking is back. The numbers go some way to corroborating that: global M&A is at about $1.2tn for the year to date, the highest level since 2007 and 42 per cent up on a year ago.

But beneath the headline numbers, there has been a fundamental shift in the way deals are being done.
The most telling change – and one that bankers argue makes this a very different market to 2007 – is the way in which deals are being financed.
One of the hallmarks of 2007 was the use of cash to fund deals, as companies borrowed billions to fulfil their M&A ambitions. Deals where only cash was used accounted for 76 per cent of the total market during the first four months. This year, all-cash deals account for 47 per cent of the market, the lowest level since 2001. In contrast, deals purely paid for with stock have accounted for 19 per cent of M&A this year compared to 8 per cent in 2007.
At the same time, there has been a surge in the number of transactions being financed with a combination of cash and stock. Usually a small part of the overall market, cash-and-stock deals have accounted for a third of all M&A in the year to date, almost 10 percentage points higher than any previous year on record and well above the 14 per cent in 2007.
The increased use of stock in deals reflects the stellar re-rating of equity value that most companies have enjoyed during the past year. The trend, which also creates an artificially high overall number for the value of M&A activity, was encapsulated in Facebook’s $19bn takeover of WhatsApp, the mobile-messaging group.
“I don’t see the “frothiness” in the current market that 2007 had, despite the recent spate of deals,” says Paul Parker, head of global M&A at Barclays. “This market is characterised by large, well-capitalised companies doing large, strategic, synergistic deals for cash and stock”.
FX de Mallmann, global co-head of Goldman Sachs’ consumer retail group, adds: “2007 was a peak year at the end of a run up in transaction volume, executed in a strong capital markets environment and in many cases with the use of meaningful leverage. Now, we are at year six since the beginning of the financial crisis. The uncertainty of the past period meant that the risks attached to launching significant transactions were perceived as too high.”
Most of what is happening now is not new; a number of these transactions have been in the drawer for a while, waiting for the stars to align
- FX de Mallmann, Goldman Sachs
The notion that the deals being executed presently are more rational or value-creating than those of previous M&A cycles is one that bankers could be forgiven for promulgating. However, investors, too, appear united in the belief that the recent run of dealmaking, while large in absolute value terms, is more measured than past booms.
Throughout the past 20 years, one factor has been almost universally true when it comes to M&A: in boom periods and in less excited times, the share prices of companies making acquisitions decline on the news of the deal.
In the past two years, that trend has started to change, albeit in a period of modest activity. In 2014, though, the share prices of acquiring companies have gained 4.4 per cent within a day of a deal being announced, the highest post-announcement increase since Dealogic began tracking the data in 1995.
One explanation is that many of the transactions being completed are not deals hastily assembled under the glow of returning confidence.
“Most of what is happening now is not new; a number of these transactions have been in the drawer for a while, waiting for the stars to align,” says Mr de Mallmann, who last month helped Holcim launch its $40bn merger with rival cement maker Lafarge. “Most of the ingredients for a turnround in M&A activity have been there for some time.
“The missing piece was CEO confidence – but that has come back too, on the back of a better macro economic outlook and a significant re-rating of stock prices.”
Mr Parker, who is working on Comcast’s $45bn merger with Time Warner Cable, adds: “[The market] is coming back, but there is still reticence out there. The actual numbers of deals are down, even with up volumes, so the pace of calls to do deals is clearly less than it was in 2007.”
The ticket size of deals in 2014 is also higher than normal. So far this year, there have been 13 M&A transactions worth in excess of $10bn, representing a third of the overall market.
Since 1995, so-called mega-deals have accounted for an average of 22 per cent of all deals. The larger deals are a consequence of a consolidation flurry in the pharmaceutical and telecom industries, both of which have scores of very large companies
Some bankers suggest that the recent hype over a return to boom times is overplayed, however.
“What’s different in 2014 compared to 2007 is that there has been a significant divergence between M&A and the equity markets over the past few years, which are usually highly correlated,” says Bob Eatroff, co-head of US M&A at Morgan Stanley. “The equity markets rose over 30 per cent last year, while M&A was flat. This year’s level of M&A activity is just a reversion to the mean.”

FT : Siemens intervenes in General Electric’s bid to acquire Alstom

Siemens intervenes in General Electric’s bid to acquire Alstom

The French government has postponed a meeting with General Electric to discuss the US manufacturer’s bid for French rival Alstom’s energy business, saying that it wants time to examine a separate proposal from Germany’s Siemens.
In a letter addressed to Alstom chief executive Patrick Kron over the weekend, Siemens proposed the creation of two new European industrial champions – one in energy under Siemens’ leadership and another in transport, which Alstom would own.

The non-binding asset-swap proposal, a copy of which was obtained by the Financial Times, represents a dramatic intervention by Siemens to prevent its great rival GE securing a much bigger footprint in Europe.
Siemens proposes acquiring Alstom’s thermal power, renewable power and grid divisions. In return it would inject its high-speed train and locomotive business into Alstom, as well as providing a “significant cash contribution” to Alstom shareholders. Siemens considers Alstom’s energy assets to have an enterprise value of €10bn-€11bn.
The German company promised not to cut jobs in France for at least three years or dispose of meaningful parts of the businesses acquired from Alstom. Siemens also proposed talks on Alstom’s sensitive nuclear power assets, including a possible carve out “if this is deemed appropriate to secure the best interests of France”.
Siemens declined to comment on the content of the letter but earlier on Sunday it issued a brief statement saying it was willing to hold talks with Alstom on “future strategic opportunities”.
Alstom said that it “continues and deepens its strategic reflection” and requested that its shares stay suspended pending a further announcement no later than Wednesday morning.
Arnaud Montebourg, industry minister, had been planning to meet Jeffrey Immelt, GE’s chief executive, in Paris on Sunday to discuss the US group’s unconfirmed $13bn approach. Alstom’s board was also expected to meet on Sunday.
Putting the brakes on any swift deal between GE and Alstom, Mr Montebourg said: “Given the strategic issues for French industry and the economy, the government will not accept any hasty decisions.”
He added that a Siemens-Alstom tie-up could create two “European champions” in transport and power engineering but said that the government now wanted “the time to make a serious examination of the two proposals”.
Mr Montebourg said that while the government would consider all projects, it would need a number of conditions relating to employment, investment and research and development remaining in France as well as the independence of the nuclear industry.
Siemens’ intervention could find favour with the French government, which was reported to have urged the German group to step forward to prevent a jewel of French industrial prowess falling into US hands.
In a separate letter to Mr Immelt, obtained by BFM TV, Mr Montebourg wrote: “We have been surprised to learn that General Electric and Alstom had engaged in advanced discussions ... without any prior interactions with French government authorities.”
This would not be the first time Mr Immelt has been snubbed after flying to Paris to try and win French government support. Four years ago his bid for Areva’s power grid equipment business was rejected in favour of a domestic deal including selling some of that business to Alstom.
Joe Kaeser, Siemens’ chief executive, first held strategic talks with his Alstom counterpart in February. But the failure of those initial discussions suggests that Siemens still has some convincing to do to win over Alstom's chief executive Mr Kron.
If Alstom’s board welcomed the proposal, Siemens was prepared to enter “immediately” into discussions, the letter said.