Fwd:>>> Afren - Buy - Good Risk REward here .- follow up

AFR tested its 200d MA Last week and traded lower since that, PMO News over the Week end & Tullow article in teh Barron's are positive catalyst for the sector, Stock is testing some support , I will take profit around the 154.5 levels, if 156.75 broken next levels will be 164.

AFR is still more than 4% higher since we initiate the trade.


----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 23 2014 13:49:29

AFR +6.8% since recommendation on the 16th, still think there is more potential even if target reached, 155 next target

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 16 2014 16:46:46

* Afren enjoyed a successful year in 2013, ramping up Ebok and capping the year off with the Ogo discovery
* Kurdistan has been an early investment for Afren, and this asset could be sold and unlock value for shareholder, if no deal the stock should trade at least in line with the market
* Stock is trading with a decent discount to NPV
* 135 levels is a strong support and stock should hold these levels
* Stosk has been weak on the last few weeks and start to stabilize
* 2 brokers issued +ve recommendaation on the last 2 days (BMO & Investec)
* I see limited downside (132 level - 5% from here ) and see the stoc testing back the 145 & 149 levels.

as rumors were around on TLW stating Sinopec & Statoil could be interested, any news in the sector will push the stock higher.


--> Buy Afren

Fwd:>>> Buy Remy Cointreau / Sell LVMH - Weak Q1 was expected, g

Pair is starting to perform +3.69%, still believe there is more potential on this one, started to see some flows out of LVMH after seeing few investors jumping in onthe last few weeks playing the fact that MC will be one of the best peformers in eartning Season, but Reassuring numbers form Kering pushed some re-allocation in the sector.


----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 22 2014 16:04:37

Follow-Up

Still believe in this trade, RCO weak on -ve article in FT, stock is down on the day, LVMH better.

I will wait to add some more

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 17 2014 10:57:05

{RCO FP Equity MC FP Equity GRT D}

* Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) - Buy
- Q4 Sales a 3% miss, Cognac still weak, we could see some more dwg to consensus EPS, but pfr story is not there anymore.
- Valuation still not cheap regarding the Cognac business but not too far from historical premium the stock is trading with the sector
- RCO is highly correlated to Luxury trend in China and most of dwg has been done
- Few weeks ago M&A rumors re-surface with a blog mentionning Brown& Forman was looking to the company, this blog was mentioning a €85/share minimum price on any deal to get the family to table.
- 55/56 appears to be a strong support.

* LVMH (MC FP) - Sell
- Numbers were published on the 9th of April, the analysis fo numbers show us that we continue to see a down trend in volume that has been so far compensated by price increase, main point of the strategy remained of potential of price increase and maintain margin.
- Stock is trading not far from historical highs (3.5%) and even if we can test this level I don't expect a major break up


Buy Remy Cointreau Sell LVMH - expecting MC to not really move and RCO to go back to the 70's levels

Laurent