(BFW) Tax Inversion Reform Unlikely to Sink M&A Recovery, Goldman Says


Tax Inversion Reform Unlikely to Sink M&A Recovery, Goldman Says
2014-08-13 05:54:37.827 GMT


By Gaurav Panchal
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- With fundamentals for robust M&A
cycle still firmly in place, potential reform is unlikely to
alter positive outlook on M&A, Goldman Sachs says.
* Further growth in U.S. Strategic, Sponsor M&A, and European
M&A capable of offsetting any drags from a decline in tax
inversion deals: Goldman
* Tax inversion deals accounted for 9% of 2014 total global
M&A announcements, nearly 10% of total fee backlog: Goldman
* Says inversion deal flow extremely concentrated with
only 14 deals in 2014 to date, largely concentrated in
Healthcare
* Says standalone M&A boutiques’ exposure to deal flow very
limited
* Within coverage, EVR (neutral) only firm with any
meaningful level of exposure, ~14% of its current fee
backlog or est. 5% EPS exposure
* LAZ (conviction buy) most insulated in case of a
slowdown in inversion activity: Goldman


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To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Gaurav Panchal at +44-20-7392-0511 or
gpanchal2@bloomberg.net

WSJ : SEC Launches Examination of Alternative Mutual Funds

SEC Launches Examination of Alternative Mutual Funds
BlackRock, AQR Capital Management Among Firms Contacted


The Securities and Exchange Commission has launched a broad examination of alternative mutual funds, according to people familiar with the matter, kicking off regulatory scrutiny of one of the hottest and most controversial investment products to be offered to small investors.

The so-called funds "sweep" includes examinations of large investment firms such as BlackRock Inc. BLK +0.79% and AQR Capital Management LLC but also smaller firms that previously didn't offer mutual funds, according to some of the people.

The agency's goal appears to be to gather information about the industry, not necessarily to deliver enforcement actions, say people familiar with the matter. Still, advisers to fund companies fear the examination could put a chill on the industry's aggressive growth plans for these popular new products.

Alternative funds, or "liquid alternative funds," describe a class of mutual funds that employ hedge-fund-like strategies, including betting on some stocks and against others, trading futures contracts and using derivatives to increase leverage.

Fund companies have marketed them as a way to hedge against market risk and as a cheaper way for individual investors to gain access to strategies once available only to sophisticated investors. Skeptics say some of the funds are watered-down versions of hedge funds and that some individual investors may not understand what they are getting.
Alternative funds have surged in popularity. The category saw inflows of $40.2 billion in 2013, up from $14.5 billion the previous year, according to fund research firm Morningstar Inc. MORN -1.00% The amount of money in the funds jumped by 63% last year, from $158 billion to $258 billion, with new funds launching regularly, according to the SEC. So far this year through July, investors have poured $16.8 billion into the funds.

The SEC is focusing on the liquidity of the funds, their use of leverage—or borrowed money to amplify wagers—and the degree of oversight provided by the funds' boards, some of the people said. The regulator is questioning not just the funds' managers, but, in some cases, has also sent letters asking to speak with mutual fund board members, these people said.

The regulator had previously signaled it would likely start its sweep of such funds this summer or fall. It's not clear how many funds have been contacted.

In a statement, Jane Jarcho, head of the SEC's investment company and adviser exams, said the agency plans to complete exams of about 30 firms offering such funds by April. Depending on the results, she said, the SEC will decide whether or not to examine more fund companies. Ms. Jarcho confirmed the examinations are under way but declined to give additional details.

Some other firms that have boosted their offerings in the space or are launching such funds for the first time include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., GS -0.08% Blackstone Group BX -1.45% LP, Bank of New York Mellon Corp. BK -0.05% and Pacific Investment Management Co.

A bevy of prominent hedge-fund firms has signed on to start or help advise the funds, encouraged by the prospect of attracting what they view as a relatively stable base of money. The funds can help firms grow: When AQR Capital Management LLC, a pioneer in the space, launched its first such mutual fund in 2009, it managed $20 billion. It managed $113 billion at the end of June, including roughly $15 billion in both traditional and alternative mutual funds.

But not all fund companies are on board. Vanguard Group Inc., the country's largest mutual fund firm, told The Wall Street Journal in May that it was avoiding expanding into the space. Some financial advisers also say they won't offer them because of their complicated strategies that are confusing to small investors, and lack of long-term track records.

The regulator has previously raised concerns about the funds. Andrew Bowden, director of the SEC's office of compliance inspections and examinations, said at a conference in March that the funds will be an area of focus for the agency.

"The use of hard to value and/or illiquid securities in an open-end mutual fund, which requires daily valuation and offers daily liquidity, is fraught with risk," Mr. Bowden said, according to a transcript of his remarks.

"Alternative funds are the bright, shiny object…but they are a sharp object," Mr. Bowden said.

In one letter to an investment adviser offering alternative mutual funds, a copy of which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the SEC sought information including: a trade blotter showing all the trades made for the funds; any internal reports on the liquidity of the funds' holdings; valuation and risk management policies for the firm, its subadvisers and its funds; results of stress tests on the funds; and minutes of recent board meetings.

FT : Record income gap fuels US housing weakness

Record income gap fuels US housing weakness

A for sale sign stands outside of a home in Princeton, Illinois, U.S., on Wednesday, May 30, 2012. The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously-owned homes fell in April by the most in a year, indicating the U.S. housing recovery remains uneven. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg©Bloomberg
The income gap between America’s richest and poorest metropolitan regions has reached its widest on record, shaping an uneven housing recovery that threatens to hold back the broader revival of the world’s largest economy.
The gap has narrowed and widened in past cycles, but the rebound from the most recent financial crisis has seen the ratio hit its most unequal since data collection began 45 years ago, fuelling policy makers’ concerns.

US Commerce and Labor Department data for the 100 largest metropolitan areas by population, analysed for the Financial Times by property website Trulia, found the income disparity between the 10th most expensive region and the 90th by home prices in 2013 hit its widest since records began in 1969.
The research shows Boston – ranked at 10 – reporting a per-capita income 1.61 times that of Cincinnati ranked at 90. At its low point in 1976, the gap was 1.36 times, between San Francisco and El Paso.
A patchy labour market recovery has meant significant variations in job and income growth between regions across the US, which in turn has intensified the divergences across the country’s housing markets.
“Housing markets are playing out at very different speeds partly as a result of the lack of geographical breadth in the labour market. Certain sectors of the economy are performing better than others, propelling some housing markets over others,” said Fannie Mae economist Mark Palim.
While some areas are experiencing bubble-like conditions, others are flailing. In Austin, Texas, a surge in technology jobs has driven demand. But in Akron, Ohio, which is struggling to boost employment through a new manufacturing base, house purchases have been more muted. In the government town of Sacramento, California, anxious homebuyers are waiting on the sidelines after being priced out by investors.
US housing: Battle scars

Stanley Fischer, Janet Yellen’s deputy chairman at the Federal Reserve, highlighted the central bank’s concern about housing in a speech this week. “The housing sector was at the epicentre of the US financial crisis and recession and it continues to weigh on the recovery,” he said.
In contrast to previous recoveries, he noted “residential construction [has been] held back by a large inventory of foreclosed and distressed properties and by tight credit conditions for construction loans and mortgages”.
How cities fared through the boom and bust, and the extent of state and local government control over foreclosures, have dictated housing market performance.
But job and income growth are playing an outsized role, Mr Palim added, particularly as mortgage interest rate rises and home price increases affect affordability.
US income per capita
The number of Americans in work has surpassed the pre-recession peak. But there has been little lower and middle wage growth, constraining demand for houses across much of the country.
The rebound in construction, led by apartments, has been concentrated in pockets of the country where incomes are among the greatest. Six of Trulia’s 10 highest-income areas – including San Jose, Boston and New York – also had the strongest residential construction performance by permits in 2013 compared with past norms.
Economists see construction activity as a better gauge of an improving housing market than prices, which have been skewed by an influx of investor buyers since 2012.

>>> Talisman Energy to begin sale of Kurdish assets

Talisman Energy to begin sale of Kurdish assets
Talisman Energy will sell all or a portion of its Kurdistan assets in Iraq within the next few months, according to a newswire report.

The Canadian producer has selected an advisor to handle the sale and had planned the sale for sometime in the third quarter, a company spokesman told Reuters. In a few weeks, the sales process will begin despite fighting in the region.

In Kurdistan, Talisman owns one block, the Topkhana, and holds a stake in the Kurdamir block with WesternZagros Resources Ltd. The energy company has long said it intends to sell the two properties.

Combat operations in Iraq and Kurdistan may scare off potential buyers, particularly since many oil companies, like Chevron and Exxon Mobil have already evacuated their personnel from the region.


Source Reuters

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: China lending slumps, Japan Q2 GDP contraction less than expected

***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -1.7% (biggest decline in 5 years) V -1.8%E; GDP NOMINAL Q/Q: -0.1% V 0.0%E; ANNUALIZED GDP Q/Q: -6.8% V -7.0%E - (CN) CHINA JULY AGGREGATE FINANCING (CNY): 273.1B V 1.5TE (lowest since Oct 2008) - (CN) CHINA JULY NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 385.2B V 780BE (lowest since Jan 2010) - (CN) CHINA JULY M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.5% V 14.4%E; M1 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 6.7% V 8.6%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 98.5 V 94.9 PRIOR; M/M: 3.8% (3th consecutive rise, highest increase in 11 months) V 1.9% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 WAGE COST INDEX Q/Q: 0.6% (3-quarter low) V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.6%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.4% V 3.5%E; Participation rate 63.2% v 62.4%; record high for 3rd consecutive month - (KR) SOUTH KOREA JULY BANK LENDING TO HOUSEHOLD (KRW): 492.0T V 488.9T PRIOR

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi +0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Sept S&P500 +0.1% at 1,932

***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Dec gold -0.1% at $1,309, Sept crude oil -0.2% at $97.17/brl; Sept Copper falls below $3.14/lb following soft China lending data; 6-week lows - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +0.23M (first build in 7 weeks) v -2Me, GASOLINE: +2.7M v -1.5Me, DISTILLATE: -2.6M v +0.5Me - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥110B in JGB with maturity less than 1-yr, ¥100B in 10-25yr JGB and ¥30B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 2025 Bonds; avg yield: 3.5296%; bid-to-cover: 3.23x - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1533 v 6.1517 prior setting (1st weaker setting in 5 sessions)

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes*** - Initial estimate of Japan Q2 GDP saw the economy contract by the biggest margin since the great earthquake over 3 years ago, but was still not as bad as expected despite JCER warning real-terms contraction would be bigger than estimated last month. Among components, private consumption was down 5% - bigger drop than 3.7% expected - and net exports contribution was at -1.1%. Govt consumption was the only positive component, rising 0.4% from -0.1% in Q1. Speaking after the GDP release, Econ Min Amari said gradual recovery trend is continuing and policy response would be flexible. Amari did not allude to the possibility of further stimulus, attributing the weakness to the impact of sales tax hike and stating that no extra budget is needed at this point. Concurrently, BOJ released the minutes of mid-July meeting, stating it would examine risks and modify policies if necessary. Recall those minutes are from the meeting that preceded one last week when BOJ cut its view on exports and output. USD/JPY was little changed on the GDP release, remaining below ¥102.30.

- China posted a surprising slump in July lending activity, prompting analyst speculation of a possible easing by the PBoC. New Yuan Loans were at the lowest level in nearly 6 years, while aggregate financing reflected the steep decline in the shadow banking activity. Housing sector weakness was also reflected in the data, as mortgage lending fell to CNY206.2B from CNY357.5B prior. PBoC said money supply, credit level and aggregate financing growth are still in reasonable range, noting weaker loan demand due to slowdown of economy and property market. PBOC added it would continue prudent monetary policy with timely fine-tuning. The balance of July economic data - industrial output, retail sales, fixed investment - are expected shortly.

- Out of Australia, Aug Westpac consumer Sentiment improvement tracked better NAB business sentiment released overnight, rising at the fastest rate in 11 months. Westpac economist noted "households do appear to be gradually feeling more secure in their employment despite the negative reception to the budget," adding another month of employment data is needed to explain the disappointing print in July figures. CBA was down nearly 1% on FY14 results showing only a modest rise in profits and net interest margins, with analysts also noting the rise in bad debt charges in the second half. Suncorp rose nearly 3% on rising FY14 profits and a 33% increase in dividend payout.

- In the Middle East, Egypt mediators have ironed out a compromise to Israeli and Hamas negotiators as 72-hour ceasefire appears to be holding. Egypt deal involves an easing on Gaza blockade, though Hamas continues to demand for the blockade to be lifted. US Defense Sec Hagel also stated 130 more US advisors have arrived in the north Iraq city of Erbil, while an unnamed official said US is contemplating leading an international military operation on the ground to help rescue thousands of trapped Yazidi refugees from ISIS militants.

***Equities*** US markets: - FLT: Guides initial FY15 $6.25-6.45 (incl acquisition) v $5.87e, Confirms Agrees to Acquire Comdata for $3.45B; +3.2% afterhours - FOSL: Reports Q2 $0.98 v $0.96e, R$773.8M v $771Me; -2.2% afterhours - JDSU: Reports Q4 $0.14 v $0.13e, R$449M v $436Me, guides Q115 $0.08-0.12 v $0.15e, R$405-425M v $443Me; -3.5% afterhours - CREE: Reports Q4 $0.42 v $0.41e, R$436M v $446Me, guides Q1 $0.40-0.45 v $0.46e, R$440-465M v $468Me; -6.5% afterhours - KING: Reports Q2 $0.59 v $0.59e, R$593M v $618Me; Announces $150M special dividend (approx $0.47/shr); reduces outlook for FY14; -20.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings 3088.JP -5.5% (Q1 results); Dentsu 4324.JP +2.8% (Q1 results); Echo Entertainment Group EGP.AU +4.1% (FY14 results) - Financials: Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA.AU -0.8% (FY14 results), Xinhu Zhongbao 600208.CN +10.1% (resumes trading); New China Life 1336.HK +1.2% (July YTD operating results); Suncorp-Metway SUN.AU +2.8% (FY14 results); Computershare CPU.AU -3.9% (FY14 results) - Materials: Pacific Metals 5541.JP +2.2% (Q1 results); OZ Minerals OZL.AU -2.7% (H1 results) - Technology: Tongda Group 698.HK -3.4% (H1 results); Ulvac 6728.JP -23.8% (FY13/14 results); Carsales.com CRZ.AU -3.0% (FY14 results) - Healthcare: CSL Limited CSL.AU +3.1% (FY14 results); Primary Healthcare PRY.AU -4.3% (FY14 results) - Telecom: Amcom Telecommunications AMM.AU -4.1% (FY14 results)

>>> Balfour Beatty CEO scotches talk of hostile bid from Carillion

Balfour Beatty CEO scotches talk of hostile bid from Carillion

Carillion is in no position to launch a hostile takeover for Balfour Beatty, according to Balfour Executive Chairman Steve Marshall, Building.co.uk reported on 1 August. Marshall said arrangements agreed by the two UK-listed construction companies before initial merger negotiations collapsed on 31 July prevented such a move. He added that hostile bids require money, the report said.

Marshall went on to say that Balfour was no longer interested in a deal with Carillion, even if Carillion were to alter its stance opposing Balfour’s planned disposal of its Parsons Brinckerhoff subsidiary. He stated that Carillion’s proposal was evidently non-viable and would have left Balfour Beatty’s investors vulnerable to value loss, the report said.

Following Marshall’s comments, Carillion proposed revised terms and the two sides re-entered negotiations but Balfour went on to reject the proposal on 11 August.

Marshall said no other prospective buyers have contacted Balfour Beatty regarding an acquisition or a merger, the item reported.

The report noted that Carillion’s 2013 accounts showed GBP 215m net borrowing. London-based Balfour Beatty has a GBP 1.64bn market cap while Carillion, based in Wolverhampton, is worth GBP 1.38bn on the LSE.


Source Building

>>> Smith&/nephew - mentionned in FT as potential target for stryker

...analysts from Needham said a bid from US peer Stryker looks “highly likely” even without the benefit of a tax inversion.
The scale and market share Stryker would gain by buying S&N makes a deal “too attractive to ignore”, said Needham. Offering a 20 per cent premium to S&N’s current price would boost Stryker’s cash earnings per share by 12 per cent in the first year even without tax savings, the broker forecast.

WSJ : Eurofin’s Bright Ideas for Espírito Santo

Eurofin’s Bright Ideas for Espírito Santo

Eurofin Holding SA, a small Swiss financial company, for years played a key role providing financial services to the now-collapsed Espírito Santo empire, according to a Page One story in The Wall Street Journal. That role might have been even more expansive if Eurofin executives had their way, according to internal Eurofin emails and documents reviewed by the Journal.

Here are two ideas that Eurofin executives floated that never got off the ground:

Idea #1: Buy Banco Espírito Santo’s bad loans

In 2009, banks were struggling with growing piles of bad loans. Regulators were pressuring lenders to clean up their balance sheets, while continuing to provide credit. So Eurofin had an idea: what if Banco Espírito Santo sold its bad loans to an investment fund set up by Eurofin, which in turn would get a loan from the bank to finance its purchase of those assets? Besides helping the bank, Eurofin’s fund would make money from outside investors.

In a 2009 email to colleagues, Eurofin executive James Edwards outlined the idea: “the critical thing for these sorts of deals to make sense is that the bank cannot invest in the shares or equity of the fund….it can however make a loan to the fund.”

He continued: “Our value added is pretty obvious. We are an arms length manager… We can add additional investment expertese [sic] in the management of these assets that will free up significant bank management time. We provide a potential solution to their balance sheet and also to the income statement as they will be receiving loan interest from the fund.”

Alas, the idea never came to fruition. In an emailed statement to the Wall Street Journal, Eurofin said “this was a commercial proposal to Banco Espírito Santo which never materialized.” Espírito Santo declined to comment. Mr. Edwards didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Idea #2: Sell Eurofin hedge funds to Espirito Santo clients

Also in 2009, Eurofin and Banco Espírito Santo executives met in Lisbon to discuss setting up a Eurofin hedge-fund unit, according to an email among Eurofin executives at the time. The unit “will be the product provider for the Espirito Santo distribution networks,” Mr. Edwards wrote to colleagues recounting his meeting with a top bank executive.

Eurofin said in its statement to the Journal that Mr. Edwards proposed the idea, “but the discussion went no further.”

In 2011, Eurofin ended up buying a small London hedge fund called NAU Capital LLP. The hedge fund’s primary investor was Banco Espírito Santo, and one of its principal employees was João Poppe, the nephew of the bank’s CEO. Mr. Poppe didn’t respond to requests for comment. Nor did Mr. Edwards. Espirito Santo declined to comment.

WSJ : Behind the Collapse of Portugal's Espírito Santo Empire

Behind the Collapse of Portugal's Espírito Santo Empire
Regulators Believe Switzerland's Eurofin Played Key Role in Financing Failed Conglomerate

Over nearly 150 years, Portugal's Espírito Santo clan built a corporate dynasty whose interests ranged from European banks to Miami condos to a diamond mine in Angola. Its current patriarch was nicknamed "Dono Disto Tudo," or "Owner of All This."

Now the empire is in ruins. The family's prized asset and Portugal's second-biggest bank, Banco Espírito Santo SA, BES.LB -40.30% collapsed this month, and Espírito Santo's main holding companies have filed for bankruptcy amid allegations of accounting problems and fraud.

The scandal has rocked Portugal's political and business elites and sent shock waves through Europe's fragile financial markets. Portugal's main stock-market benchmark has tumbled 22% since Espírito Santo's crisis intensified early last month. The fact that regulators didn't spot the company's problems has rekindled fears among investors that trouble might be lurking in other European banks.

At the heart of the affair lies a small Swiss financial company now called Eurofin Holding SA, which was set up 15 years ago largely to handle financial transactions for the Espírito Santo family and its companies.

For years Eurofin was partly owned by an Espírito Santo company. Eurofin played an important role in buttressing Espírito Santo's finances, according to internal Eurofin emails, trading records and other documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, as well as former executives and other people familiar with the relationship.

The records indicate that Eurofin moved money between Espírito Santo entities, often in ways that were difficult for outsiders to detect. Some of the moves took place in the heat of the global financial crisis, when southern European banks were struggling to stay afloat.

At times, a Eurofin-managed vehicle was the only buyer of certain Banco Espírito Santo bonds, trading records show. Eurofin helped package large sums of debt from various Espírito Santo companies, which were then sold to the bank's customers. One arrangement attracted attention from a top French bank's compliance department, prompting that bank to stop processing transactions between Eurofin and Espírito Santo, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Portugal's central bank governor, Carlos Costa, now says the shuffling of funds among Espirto Santo companies amounted to fraud. Espírito Santo "developed a fraudulent funding scheme between the companies belonging to the group," Mr. Costa said recently. He added that "these frauds are very difficult to detect before they collapse, in particular when activities are carried out in various jurisdictions."


Family patriarch Ricardo Espírito Santo Salgado, shown in a 2010 photo, resigned as CEO of publicly traded Banco Espírito Santo in July. Associated Press
Portuguese regulators suspect that Eurofin played a central role in the Espírito Santo affair, according to a person familiar with the investigation.

Eurofin, a privately held company based in Lausanne, Switzerland, said in a written statement that it "is fully autonomous and independent" of Banco Espírito Santo and the wider Espírito Santo Group. Eurofin confirmed that it had extensive business dealings with Espírito Santo entities, but said the company "has always acted in full compliance with applicable laws and regulatory requirements." The company said it never distributed any financial products to retail customers.

Alexandre Cadosch, chief executive of Eurofin, said in a brief interview Tuesday: "I firmly believe we are the wrong target."

A spokesman for Espírito Santo International SA, the family's main holding company, which filed for bankruptcy last month, declined to comment.

Family patriarch Ricardo Espírito Santo Salgado resigned as chief executive of publicly traded Banco Espírito Santo in July. He recently was detained for questioning by Portuguese prosecutors in a money-laundering investigation. He has said he "believes that truth and justice will prevail." A spokesman said Mr. Salgado would speak publicly only when the Bank of Portugal completes its investigation.


The collapse of Portugal's Banco Espírito Santo, whose Lisbon offices are seen above, has sent shock waves through Europe's fragile financial markets. Associated Press Associated Press
The Espírito Santo dynasty started with a foreign-exchange business in Lisbon, launched in 1869 by José María do Espírito Santo e Silva. The business eventually became Banco Espírito Santo and expanded beyond banking into a global empire that included real estate, hotels, health care and energy and agricultural interests. Mr. Salgado, a soft-spoken man with deep blue eyes who is the great-grandson of José Maria, became the bank's CEO in 1991.

In 1999, the family's growing fortune prompted the creation of a separate entity, Eurofin Services, mainly to manage the clan's financing and transactions, according to former Eurofin executives. It was founded by Mr. Cadosch, then a vice president at an Espírito Santo trust company.

Under Mr. Cadosch, Eurofin gradually expanded into offering wealth-management services to other rich families.

By 2008, Eurofin employed about 40. The Espírito Santo family, through a company called Espírito Santo Resources, owned 23% of Eurofin. Its second-largest shareholder, with a 22% stake, was a powerboat-racing promoter named Nicolo di San Germano.

Eurofin tried to diversify. It launched a diamond-trading service. A U.K. unit pitched for investment-banking business with English soccer clubs.

But serving Espírito Santo was always Eurofin's main mission, the internal emails and documents show.

At a May 2008 presentation to Banco Espírito Santo executives, Eurofin officials floated the idea of the bank buying a majority stake in an arm of Eurofin. They noted that the firm's name could be "changed to an Espírito Santo branding," according to a copy of a slideshow. The slides also noted plans, independent of any acquisition, for Eurofin "to develop a range of products" for the bank's clients.

Eurofin managed several investment funds that were sold to clients of Espírito Santo's Swiss private bank, according to Eurofin documents and a former executive. And a stock fund managed by Eurofin counted stakes in Banco Espírito Santo and Espírito Santo Financial Group SA as its two biggest investments, according to marketing documents.

Eurofin was managing more than 1.4 billion Swiss francs ($1.6 billion) of assets for Espírito Santo entities, representing most of Eurofin's total assets under management in 2010, according to an internal Eurofin email.

Not everyone at Espírito Santo was comfortable about the close relationship with Eurofin, the documents show. Before an October 2009 meeting with Espírito Santo, a senior Eurofin executive, Michel Creton, wrote to colleagues to warn them that a top bank executive isn't "friendly" toward Eurofin because of its perceived role serving as a special-purpose financing vehicle. Mr. Creton didn't respond to requests for comment.

That same year, the Espírito Santo family sold its stake in Eurofin, according to Eurofin. The powerboat-racing promoter Mr. di San Germano became Eurofin's majority shareholder.

But the connections between Eurofin and Espírito Santo remained deep, the documents show.

In late 2009, Banco Espírito Santo created a Lisbon trading desk named Tulipa. Its main mission was to sell its customers debt issued by various parts of the Espírito Santo Group, according to a Eurofin memo discussing the project. The memo estimated annual volumes could reach €30 billion, or about $40 billion.

Bank executives turned to Eurofin for help establishing a "paper trail" to "demonstrate the involvement of a third party in the transactions with its clients," according to the Eurofin memo, written after Eurofin executives discussed the setup with bank officials.

Asked about Tulipa, Eurofin said that in 2010 it "set up an intermediary to provide intermediation services as arranger to institutional clients, but these services were never provided to retail clients by Eurofin."

In early 2010, Mr. Creton, the Eurofin executive, flew to Lisbon to meet with Espírito Santo executives. "They were all happy to see that we present ourselves as an independent party with whom they can envisage to work," Mr. Creton emailed his colleagues after the meeting.

Eurofin also helped manage two British Virgin Island-registered investment funds, called EG Premium and Zyrcan. The two funds regularly bought and sold assets and lent money to one another, as well as with Espírito Santo entities, according to internal fund documents. Internal Zyrcan spreadsheets referred to certain counterparties simply as "our friend," which the former executive said was a reference to Espírito Santo.

The former Eurofin executive said the two funds' largest investors were Espírito Santo-owned companies.

In the summer of 2009, Banco Espírito Santo issued so-called zero-coupon bonds with a face value of about €1.8 billion. Zyrcan was the only buyer, and it quickly sold the bonds at prices double or triple what it had paid, according to trading records. A Zyrcan affiliate said in a letter at the time to an intermediary bank that it hoped to profit by selling the bonds in several batches "to clients of Banco Espírito Santo, Lisbon."

On many days from 2009 through 2011, the Zyrcan fund bought tens of millions of dollars of debt issued by Banco Espírito Santo's internal finance arm, providing the bank with a steady stream of liquidity during financial crises, according to trading records.

In the first week of January 2011, for example, Banco Espírito Santo's funding costs were soaring to their highest level in years as anxious investors and banks rushed to curtail their exposure to southern European lenders. That week, Zyrcan bought about €174 million of the bank's long-term bonds, trading records show.

Eurofin said that its Eurofin Capital unit "acts as mere investment advisor" to EG Premium and Zyrcan. Internal fund documents show that senior Eurofin executives, including Mr. Cadosch and the firm's deputy director, Valérie Cholvy, were closely involved with managing the funds and that Eurofin was paid quarterly "management fees." Ms. Cholvy didn't respond to requests for comment.

A large portion of the transactions among Espírito Santo companies, EG Premium and Zyrcan were routed through Caribbean branches of French bank Société Générale SA, GLE.FR -0.28% according to trading records.

In early 2012, employees in Société Générale's compliance department wanted to learn more about the transactions their bank was processing between Eurofin and Espírito Santo entities, according to a person familiar with the matter. Compliance employees repeatedly requested additional information. When they didn't hear back, the French bank stopped serving as an intermediary, this person said.

Things started unraveling late last year.

In November, Portugal's markets regulator imposed a rule limiting the amount that funds could invest in entities affiliated with the fund managers.

The Journal reported in December about Espírito Santo International accounting practices that some outside experts deemed questionable, and noted that Banco Espírito Santo was selling debt issued by other Espírito Santo entities to its retail clients. At the time, Espírito Santo defended its accounting practices and said its sales practices were proper.

That month, the Bank of Portugal told Banco Espírito Santo to reduce its exposure to other Espírito Santo companies, and it requested that KPMG LLP audit Espírito Santo International's books.

This spring, KPMG informed the Bank of Portugal it had uncovered a variety of accounting "irregularities," according the Bank of Portugal's Mr. Costa. In March, the auditor of Espírito Santo International's books, Francisco Machado da Cruz, stepped down from Eurofin's board of directors, according to Eurofin. He didn't respond to requests for comment.

On July 18, Espírito Santo International filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors in Luxembourg.

Banco Espírito Santo's auditors, meanwhile, were finding new areas of exposure to its bankrupt parent. On July 30, the bank reported a €3.6 billion first-half loss, a larger-than-expected blow caused by newly uncovered Espírito Santo debt that had been sold to the bank's retail clients, which the bank said it might have to buy back. The bank said the debt was packaged by financial intermediaries and then sold to clients at an inflated price.

Days later, Mr. Costa identified Eurofin as an intermediary that packaged that debt. Mr. Costa said the securities that Eurofin helped package caused about $1.7 billion in losses for the bank as it set aside money to repay customers.

On Aug. 1, the European Central Bank's governing council, in a lunchtime videoconference, informed the Bank of Portugal that it was cutting off Banco Espírito Santo's access to ECB funds. Two days later, Mr. Costa announced a taxpayer-funded bailout and breakup of the bank.

Eurofin said in its statement that as of June, Espírito Santo "represented a significant part" of its business, although it noted the exposure was "far lower" than a few years ago, when more than two-thirds of its assets were tied to the family.

Mr. di San Germano, the powerboat enthusiast who is majority owner of Eurofin, says he is still trying to figure out what happened. "It was a really big, big surprise to hear" of Eurofin's extensive dealings with Espírito Santo, he said in an interview. "I did not know personally about these things."

Reuters - Yellen resolved to avoid raising rates too soon, f

Yellen resolved to avoid raising rates too soon, fearing downturn

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Approaching a historic turn in U.S. monetary policy, Janet Yellen has staked her tenure as chair of the Federal Reserve on a simple principle: she'd rather fight inflation than another economic downturn.

Interviews with current and former Fed officials indicate that Yellen and core decision-makers at the U.S. central bank are determined not to raise interest rates too early and risk hurting the fragile U.S. economy.

It's a commitment that will be vigorously tested in coming months as pressure builds inside the Fed, among Republicans on Capitol Hill, and perhaps even in financial markets, for the Fed to acknowledge a strengthening U.S. economy with its first interest-rate increase in more than eight years. A global central bankers' conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week will give Yellen a major stage on which to press her case.

After taking over from Ben Bernanke in February, she has developed a distinct style: off-the-cuff and personable in public appearances, unusually direct in calling attention to the plight of the unemployed, meticulous in her preparation for Fed meetings and highly attuned to the opinions of her colleagues, the Fed sources say.

A common adjective used to describe her in meetings is "over-prepared." She is able to deeply question staff and colleagues about the fine points of their presentations, and so far has been able to forge consensus statements that have satisfied the Fed hawks most concerned about the inflation threat while keeping the central bank focused more on employment.

The nightmare scenario she wants to avoid is hiking rates only to see financial markets and the economy take such a hit that she has to backtrack. Until the Fed has gotten rates up from the current level near zero to more normal levels, it would have little room to respond if the economy threatened to head into another recession.

Inflation, on the other hand, is a familiar foe that Fed officials say they are confident they can control with conventional policy tools.

"If the Fed were to generate too much economic growth and higher inflation, that is a much better situation to be in than one of a faltering economic recovery and the need to rely even more on unconventional tools," said David Stockton, the Fed's chief economist until 2011 who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

"The Fed knows how to contain inflation if it is moving," he said, while the impact at this point of another downturn "are more uncertain and hard to counter."

The risks of moving too soon, Stockton and others in and outside the Fed say, include snuffing out an already tepid housing market recovery with higher mortgage rates, depressing business investment and durable goods purchases, and triggering sudden declines in asset prices.

And after extraordinary efforts to right the U.S. economy after the financial crisis struck, there would likely be little appetite among Republicans or other fiscal conservatives on Capitol Hill to use fiscal policy to counter a fresh recession, making it all the more important for Yellen to avoid helping to cause such a reversal.

"The challenge that she and the Fed as an institution face is to support the recovery, because fiscal policy ... is no longer on the table for both political and economic reasons," said David Lipton, first deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund.  "Now that (the economy) is recovering, the challenge is to gauge its strength and make sure it stays on the right path."

The other scary scenario is that a bout of swifter-than-expected inflation could erode three decades of hard-earned confidence that prices will remain under control, which in turn could make it easier for higher inflation to take firm root. The Fed's more hawkish officials also worry that the longer rates remain ultra low the more likely it is that troublesome financial bubbles will form.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser formally dissented over the current dovish approach at the central bank's last policy meeting, while in recent weeks Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed has amplified his concern that the bank is falling behind the inflation curve.

But even Fisher, one of the Fed's most outspoken hawks, credited Yellen's "extremely thoughtful" way of taking into account the views of other policymakers, a factor he said prompted him not to dissent.   

"She may be new to the chair but she's well respected and she knows all the personalities in the room," said former Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke. Jeffrey Fuhrer, senior policy advisor at the Boston Fed, said Yellen's communications style is "a little more open and accessible" than her predecessor Bernanke. Adding: "She's a bit more approachable somehow."

The central bank is also watching the November mid-term elections with particular interest: a Republican takeover of the Senate could give momentum to a proposal that would force the Fed to rely on a mechanistic rule to set interest rates based on the levels of inflation and unemployment in the economy. That would undermine the collective judgment Yellen feels is needed to guide the economy in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Despite a falling unemployment rate and inflation that is rising toward the Fed's 2-percent target, Yellen has in the last six months managed to shift investors' attention to stagnant wage growth and the high number of Americans who have given up the search for work.

She recently described higher inflation readings as "noisy," noting that overshooting the target is "at most a risk that we could face somewhere down the road."

At an IMF event in early July, she dropped another strong clue that she was not afraid to let the economy heat up, saying the threat of asset-price bubbles or other financial instabilities probably won't prompt an earlier-than-expected policy tightening.

That speech has been cited by a number of analysts who know Yellen as an important sign that she is putting her stamp on the evolving debate over how deeply central banks should be concerned with financial stability. Yellen was clear: raising rates would almost certainly cost jobs and growth, but wouldn't necessarily stave off bubbles.

In yet another sign of the Fed's patience, San Francisco Fed chief John Williams, often cited as a policy bellwether, recently made the theoretical case for allowing inflation to run temporarily above target to help bring down the number of long-term unemployed. Even broaching the idea of letting inflation run hot is a sensitive topic for a central bank that in the late 1970s and early 80s hiked its key rates to as high as 20 percent to slay sky-rocketing price increases.

Investors currently do not expect the Fed to lift rates until the second half of next year - a remarkable achievement for Yellen given the U.S. unemployment rate is near a six-year low and closing in on what Fed officials see as its equilibrium level.

Colleagues said that Yellen has adapted easily to her new role, yet what Stockton called her "stress test" lies ahead, and may begin this fall when the debate over interest rates intensifies.

The Fed expects to end one of its key crisis programs in October when it stops buying Treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities. Once that happens, the next step is to raise rates.

"You're going to see a battle ... that is wide open" among policymakers, predicted former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder.

"There are a zillion ways it could go wrong but the simplest way is that the Fed exits too slowly, in which case some of the fears of the inflation hawks will come true," added Blinder, now a Princeton professor. "The other is that the Fed moves too quickly - this is the one that often gets forgotten - and the recovery stalls or, even worse, gets reversed."