Alstom (FR) France econ min Montebourg: govt in favor of alliances not takeovers
Event Driven Pharma: Shire Plc (SHP LN)
Worth speculating in the current environment - BUY
SHP LN: GBP 32.63 – tgt GBP 50.00
April 30, 2014
Shire is currently the focus of intense bid speculation. Given the “hot environment” in the pharma sector, Shire certainly fits the bill as a potential buy-out candidate. Its market cap is digestible ($32bn), the company is not controlled (unlike Meda or UCB for example), and it has an attractive portfolio which makes it one of the fastest growing pharma stocks. Moreover, and this is key for us to recommend the stock, Shire is significantly undervalued, particularly against other “deal stocks’ in the sector. Hence, we recommend a position in the name. Our target is significantly above the current share price, at GBP 50.0
FULL REPORT ATTACHED
AFREN opening much higher on HOIL take over news I will take half of profit here as yesterday target was not reach
----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 29 2014 16:24:12
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 29 2014 16:24:12
AFR has a decent rebound today, after few days correction, the stock is breaking important levels, important resistance on 154.30/155 levels that was my target.I will take part of profit above 154.50 but still think there is more potential, if 155 broken on close, target is 163.----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 28 2014 10:45:43AFR tested its 200d MA Last week and traded lower since that, PMO News over the Week end & Tullow article in teh Barron's are positive catalyst for the sector, Stock is testing some support , I will take profit around the 154.5 levels, if 156.75 broken next levels will be 164.AFR is still more than 4% higher since we initiate the trade.----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 23 2014 13:49:29AFR +6.8% since recommendation on the 16th, still think there is more potential even if target reached, 155 next target----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 16 2014 16:46:46* Afren enjoyed a successful year in 2013, ramping up Ebok and capping the year off with the Ogo discovery* Kurdistan has been an early investment for Afren, and this asset could be sold and unlock value for shareholder, if no deal the stock should trade at least in line with the market* Stock is trading with a decent discount to NPV* 135 levels is a strong support and stock should hold these levels* Stosk has been weak on the last few weeks and start to stabilize* 2 brokers issued +ve recommendaation on the last 2 days (BMO & Investec)* I see limited downside (132 level - 5% from here ) and see the stoc testing back the 145 & 149 levels.as rumors were around on TLW stating Sinopec & Statoil could be interested, any news in the sector will push the stock higher.--> Buy Afren
INFO LE FIGARO - The Board of the French group agreed Tuesday offers U.S. for its energy activities. German rival proposes to retain 19% of the new Alstom.
The passage of most of 'assets of Alstom under the American flag is approaching. The Board of Directors of the French flagship energy and transport (famous for the TGV) was held late Tuesday afternoon for the third time since Friday. After the meeting, he, according to our information, unanimously accepted the offer, firm and financed from General Electric to buy back its energy activities for more than € 10 billion.
The case is it in the bag for the American group? Not quite. The Board of Alstom conventionally commissioned an independent expertise in the supply of GE. And thus opened a period of one month during which GE will be held by his offer, but let Alstom some leeway. The French group will certainly not the right to solicit other potential buyers, but it may consider any alternative proposal which would be made.
For some, this nuance is not a pleading. Belief Officer of Alstom, and in particular its CEO Patrick Kron is anyway made in favor of "deal" with the U.S.. The marriage of its energy activities with those of its German rival is the opposite considered too difficult to achieve, due to very important duplicates.
Siemens now offers to provide all of its transport activity
But neither the government more favorable to a European solution or Siemens are not yet ready to admit defeat. The German group said Tuesday, after meeting its own board of its intention to make an offer to Alstom. Provided, that should be accepted, to have access to financial data of the company and be able to speak with management. Siemens has sent a letter Tuesday to the directors of Alstom a much more detailed than the draft sent to the emergency Sunday project. According to our information, the German group values in premioère analysis Alstom energy industry that covets between 10.5 and 11 billion euros. It now proposes to bring all of its transport activity (TGV locomotives but also its profitable metros) the French group, which would be 19% shareholder. Siemens wants to get the job instead of signaling French.
"The board of Alstom consider in good faith proposals Siemens", stated Tuesday near. This promise does suffice to government? Monday evening, François Hollande , now very involved in this issue politically and socially sensitive , asked Martin Bouygues , whose eponymous group owns 29.4% of Alstom, wait a few weeks before announcing an irreversible decision. "The president calls time for proposals and commitments of each other, in terms of its objectives in terms of jobs, keeping decision-making centers and energy independence, to be improved" , it is argued on the side of the executive.
In the afternoon of Tuesday, Jeff Immelt , CEO of General Electric, has brought to the Élysée a letter stating its commitments, including that of France localize decision-making centers and seats of activities. Advanced deemed insufficient in the entourage 's Arnaud Montebourg . GE does not bring in the trash and marriage its rail signaling, simply raising the possibility of a joint venture with Alstom in this area.
A set of bidding
Suffice to say that Alstom will choose his words and temper his enthusiasm to formalize the green light on Wednesday its board to supply GE. Because at the Elysee, and especially the Ministry of Economy Arnaud Montebourg, we will quickly interpret this decision as a snub.
But the board of Alstom also continues its own agenda, with a priority for such a body: get the best price for the proposed transaction. From this point of view, a set of bidding between GE and Siemens can only satisfy. Each of the two candidates can still raise the price of the energy industry. Another track: a global offer. "To counter GE, Siemens may consider a bid for Alstom, then leaves to reintroduce traded its transport part" suggests a close case.
Investors will see a little clearer Wednesday: listing Alstom suspended since Friday morning, will resume, and the stock market watchdog, smarting from the previous on Vivendi and SFR, Alstom requested to inform the market the competing tenders.
INFO LE FIGARO - Le conseil du groupe français a accepté ce mardi l'offre de l'américain pour ses activités énergie. Son concurrent allemand propose de conserver 19% du nouvel Alstom.
L'affaire est-elle dans le sac pour le groupe américain? Pas tout à fait. Le conseil d'Alstom a, classiquement, commandé une expertise indépendante de l'offre de GE. Et ainsi ouvert une période d'un mois pendant laquelle GE sera tenu par son offre, mais qui laissera à Alstom une certaine marge de manœuvre. Le groupe français n'aura certes pas le droit de démarcher d'autres acquéreurs potentiels, mais il pourra examiner toute proposition alternative qui lui serait faite.
Pour certains, cette nuance n'est qu'un acte de procédure. La conviction de la direction d'Alstom, et en particulier de son PDG Patrick Kron, est de toute façon faite en faveur du «deal» avec l'américain. Le mariage de ses activités énergie avec celle de son concurrent allemand est à l'inverse considéré comme trop difficile à réaliser, du fait de très importants doublons.
Siemens propose désormais d'apporter la totalité de son activité transports
Mais ni les pouvoirs publics, plus favorables à une solution européenne, ni Siemens ne sont encore prêts à s'avouer vaincus. Le groupe allemand a confirmé mardi, à l'issue de la réunion de son propre conseil, son intention de faire une offre à Alstom. À la condition, qui devrait être acceptée, d'avoir accès aux données financières de l'entreprise et de pouvoir s'entretenir avec sa direction. Siemens a fait parvenir mardi par lettre aux administrateurs d'Alstom un projet beaucoup plus détaillé que l'ébauche envoyée dans l'urgence dimanche. Selon nos informations, le groupe allemand valorise en premioère analyse la branche énergie d'Alstom qu'il convoite entre 10,5 et 11 milliards d'euros. Il propose désormais d'apporter la totalité de son activité transports (TGV, locomotives mais aussi ses rentables métros) au groupe français, dont il serait actionnaire à 19%. Siemens souhaite en revanche récupérer le métier de signalisation du français.
«Le conseil d'Alstom examinera de bonne foi les propositions de Siemens», affirmait mardi un proche. Cette promesse suffira-t-elle aux pouvoirs publics? Lundi soir, François Hollande, désormais très impliqué dans ce dossier politiquement et socialement sensible, avait demandé à Martin Bouygues, dont le groupe éponyme possède 29,4% d'Alstom, de laisser passer quelques semaines avant d'annoncer une décision irréversible. «Le président de la République réclame du temps pour que les propositions et les engagements des uns et des autres, au regard de ses objectifs en termes d'emplois, de maintien des centres de décisions et d'indépendance énergétique du pays, soient améliorés», fait-on valoir du côté de l'exécutif.
Dans l'après-midi de mardi, Jeff Immelt, le PDG de General Electric, a fait porter à l'Élysée une lettre précisant ses engagements, et notamment celui de localiser en France des centres de décisions et sièges d'activités. Des avancées jugées insuffisantes dans l'entourage d'Arnaud Montebourg. GE n'apporte ainsi pas dans la corbeille du mariage ses activités de signalisation ferroviaire, évoquant simplement la possibilité de créer une coentreprise avec Alstom dans ce domaine.
Un jeu de surenchères
Autant dire qu'Alstom devra choisir ses mots et tempérer ses ardeurs pour officialiser ce mercredi le feu vert de son conseil à l'offre de GE. Car à l'Élysée, et surtout au ministère de l'Économie d'Arnaud Montebourg, on aura vite fait d'interpréter cette décision comme un camouflet.
Mais le conseil d'Alstom poursuit aussi son propre agenda, avec un objectif prioritaire pour une telle instance: tirer le meilleur prix de l'opération envisagée. De ce point de vue, un jeu de surenchères entre GE et Siemens ne peut que le satisfaire. Chacun des deux candidats peut encore relever le prix de la branche énergie. Autre piste: une offre globale. «Pour contrer GE, Siemens peut envisager une OPA sur Alstom, quitte ensuite à réintroduire en Bourse sa partie transports», avance un proche du dossier.
Les investisseurs y verront un peu plus clair ce mercredi: la cotation d'Alstom, suspendue depuis vendredi matin, va reprendre, et le gendarme de la Bourse, échaudé par le précédent sur Vivendi et SFR, a demandé à Alstom d'informer le marché sur les offres en présence.
trying to find the article
Alstom: GE made a firm offer to € 12.35 billion
The U.S. giant proposes € 12.35 billion to Alstom energy business. The Board of Directors of Alstom welcomed "positively" the offer, but reserves the right to respond to other unsolicited proposals.
The figure fell. Approximately € 12.35 billion were proposed by General Electric (GE), following the letter of appointment of Jeffrey Immelt François Hollande . The battle between the U.S. group and Siemens, the acquisition of Alstom's energy sector underwent, has entered a new phase with the firm offer from U.S. group revealed Wednesday morning. Tenders received positively by the Board of Alstom and will be "a thorough review" by the end of May In this context, a committee of independent directors, led by Jean-Martin Folz, consider the U.S. proposal "taking into account the interests of all stakeholders, including those of the French state." A recovery Wednesday morning by GE assertion judge offers GE "good" for Alstom and France.
In a statement, General Electric specifies the structure of its offer. For Thermal Power activities, Renewable and Power Grid, the American firm has proposed $ 13.5 billion, or about € 9.9 billion in enterprise value and $ 3.4 billion, or about 2 5 billion euros in net cash. According to the calculations of GE, this operation would cost synergies of over $ 1.2 billion at the end of 5 years.
Alstom close any door
The other contender for the acquisition of Alstom's energy industry, German Siemens, is still in the race that the American option has yet a significant advance. And this despite the support of the French government to Siemens . Alstom has said the German group would be "equitable access to information" for a possible firm offer can be made.
In its statement, Alstom also states that it reserves the right answer for the acquisition of "all or part" of its energy industry "unsolicited offers". Sign that this battle may be far from over and that the French group wants to close any doors.