TheChek News Flow

Kyiv says it secured concession from Trump administration not to use proceeds for past military aid

The US and Ukraine are close to signing a minerals framework deal as soon as this week, after Kyiv said it secured a significant concession from the Trump administration not to factor in past military aid.

The latest development signals a significant step forward after a signing ceremony on an earlier version of the deal was cancelled in February following the public disagreement in the Oval Office between presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

After that dust-up, Trump insisted that billions of dollars of past US military assistance should be viewed as loans to be repaid through the agreement. Zelenskyy rejected that proposal.

“It was agreed that assistance provided prior to the signing of the agreement will not be counted towards it,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal wrote on his Telegram channel on Sunday night. A senior Ukrainian official said that could pave the way for the framework deal to be signed this week.

The breakthrough comes after Trump met Zelenskyy in the Vatican over the weekend, in what the US president described as a “beautiful meeting” and praised the Ukrainian leader for “doing a good job”. “I see him as calmer,” Trump added. “I think he understands the picture, and I think he wants to make a deal.”

Trump has also expressed deep frustration in recent days towards both Ukraine and Russia over what he perceives as the warring sides not wanting to make concessions to stop Europe’s largest war in 80 years.

“I was very disappointed that missiles were [launched] by Russia . . . I want [Putin] to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal,” Trump told reporters on Sunday in a rare criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Critics have attacked Trump for being more critical of and piling more pressure on Kyiv than on Moscow.

Trump has viewed the so-called minerals deal to jointly exploit Ukraine’s rare earths and other natural resources as a way to recoup the billions of dollars’ worth of military aid sent to Kyiv under the administration of Joe Biden — and to pressure Zelenskyy towards broader peace negotiations.

The US pressure campaign has been evident since a few days before the Oval Office bust-up, when secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent​ visited Kyiv and demanded that Zelenskyy sign the initial framework deal in his presence. The meeting devolved into a shouting match.

On Sunday, Shmyhal said he had held ​an “important meeting” with Bessent​ to hammer out final details.

“Legal teams are working on the document. We have made good progress​,” he said, adding that Ukraine had clearly defined ​i​ts “red lines”.

Senior Ukrainian officials ​had previously t​old the Financial Times that the US request to use proceeds from the minerals deal to repay past military assistance could have undermine​d their nation’s sovereignty, potentially scuppering Ukraine’s bid to join the EU and would not have been approved by the country’s parliament.

Many Ukrainian MPs, including some from Zelenskyy’s ruling party, have expressed concerns about the minerals deal and told the FT that they would not vote for a bad deal.

Senior Ukrainian officials told the FT that the framework deal being finalised applied to all mineral resources, including oil and gas, and major energy assets across the entire Ukrainian territory.

“The agreement must comply with European commitments and must not contradict Ukraine’s constitution and legislation​,” Shmyhal said, suggesting that the new agreement was on track to address Kyiv’s concerns.

Kyiv and Washington signed a memorandum of intent ​earlier this month, pledging to advance ​an agreement on ​the investment fund part of the deal on Ukraine’s natural resources and energy assets​. 

The negotiations have been so sensitive that Zelenskyy earlier this month ordered an investigation into the leak of the previous US proposal, which included the use of polygraph tests on government officials.

​In a Fox News interview on Sunday, US national security adviser Mike Waltz said​ he was confident the deal “is going to get done”.

“The negotiators were working hard over the weekend​,” he said, adding that Trump “is determined to make it so​”.

China’s third-generation Hualong One reactors will be among those built in some coastal provinces, and each can meet the energy demands of 1 million people

China’s State Council has approved 10 new nuclear reactors across five sites, ramping up the development of the nation’s rapidly expanding nuclear power industry with a combined investment of more than 200 billion yuan (US$27.4 billion).

The year’s first approval of new nuclear reactors came during a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang on Sunday. They will be built in coastal provinces, including Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Shandong and Fujian, according to The Paper, a state-run publication.

Among the newly planned reactors, eight are Hualong One reactors, which incorporate China’s third-generation nuclear technology and are each capable of generating about 10 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year – enough to meet the annual demand of 1 million people.

As stressed in the meeting, the development of nuclear power must ensure “absolute safety”.

“The nuclear power industry continues to experience strong growth … China’s nuclear power projects are being regularly approved and built according to the highest global safety standards,” analysts from Citic Securities wrote in a research note on Monday.

This marks the fourth straight year that the State Council has approved at least 10 nuclear reactors. The push to develop nuclear power aligns with China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, as the country remains the world’s largest consumer of coal power and biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

A report released by the China Nuclear Energy Association on Sunday showed, for the first time, that China is the global leader in nuclear power capacity, with 102 nuclear reactors in operation, under construction or approved, with a total installed power capacity of 113 million kilowatts.

Data from the World Nuclear Association shows that about 65 power reactors are being constructed in 15 countries, and 30 are in China, making it the country with the largest number of nuclear reactors in the pipeline. Russia is second, with seven under construction.

Investment in nuclear power construction projects reached a record-high 146.9 billion yuan in 2024 – up 52 billion yuan from the previous year, according to the report.

Although nuclear power accounts for a smaller share of China’s clean-energy mix when compared with solar and wind power, nuclear electricity generation has been steadily increasing.

In 2024, the capacity of nuclear power units in operation was 60.88 million kilowatts, and this generated 445.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity – 2.72 per cent more than in 2023 – while accounting for 4.73 per cent of China’s total power output last year, according to the China Nuclear Energy Association.

The nuclear power output was equivalent to reducing 334 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.

By 2030, the capacity of China’s nuclear units in operation is estimated to reach 110 million kilowatts, the association said.

- Uranium spot price decreased by 11.7% from $73.00/lb on 31 Dec 2024 to $64.45/lb on 31 Mar 2025, but strengthened to $66.85/lb on 25 Apr 2025.

- Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly US trade policies, contributed to the price pullback, but long-term price remained resilient, increasing by $1.00/lb to $80.00/lb by Quarter-end.

- Value of Yellow Cake's uranium holdings decreased by 11.7% to $1,397.4 million as of 31 Mar 2025, reflecting the spot price decline.

- Estimated net asset value per share fell by 14.4% to £5.05, mainly due to the drop in uranium price and Sterling's appreciation.

- Estimated NAV on 25 Apr 2025 was £5.07 per share ($1,466.5 million).

- All U3O8 held at Cameco (Canada) and Orano (France) storage facilities.

- If export restrictions remain in force or tighten through 2025-2026, companies not diversified away from Chinese sources could face production slowdowns, higher production costs, slowdowns in wafer throughput and possibly product launch delays for devices that rely on affected components

- If we arrive at a scenario where no gallium or dysprosium at all is flowing to U.S./EU buyers, this would severely constrain any technology requiring III-V semiconductors or rare-earth magnets

- Overall, the likelihood of this scenario is somewhat limited as new non-Chinese mining/refining projects start coming online, recycling programs ramp up and diversification is on its way. But we are still in a difficult change period for the semi and electronics industry

- I assume that over the next few years, we can expect some traditionally China-dependent materials to have robust non-Chinese supply chains or substitutes like DRAM-grade tungsten from Canada, dysprosium-free magnet modules from Japan, or even novel semiconductor materials like Ga2O3 or boron nitride being developed to bypass gallium entirely

- Rare-earth magnets using neodymium-iron-boron alloys doped with dysprosium/terbium are part of lithography systems and wafer-handling robots, so curbs on these inputs could delay equipment deliveries and maintenance for chip fabs; The first immediate impact is that IDMs and foundries face cost inflation and potential bottlenecks in production if their Chinese sources for such specialized materials dry up

- Neodymium is arguably the single most critical rare earth for electronics; Neodymium-praseodymium alloys generate powerful permanent magnets used in semiconductor manufacturing equipment like lithography scanners and etch tools as well as in countless electronic devices

- Expect, rather than a blanket ban, every Chinese export requires a special license, and authorities will vet end users and end uses of the material case by case