>>> What to look at today - 30th of April 2025

A six-day rally in US stocks looks set to pause as equity-index futures declined following disappointing earnings from Super Micro Computer Inc. and as more companies withdraw their guidance. Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indexes both fell at least 0.5% as Super Micro slid 15% in after-market trading, ahead of earnings from mega cap companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. MSCI’s gauge of Asian shares rose 0.4%. Treasuries extended this month’s advance, with 10-year yields falling for a seventh day. Gold dropped 0.4%. Futures for European stocks swung between gains and losses after UBS Group AG’s net income beat estimates. Societe Generale SA also beat expectations for profit and revenue as it benefited from a surge in equities trading. Mercedes-Benz Group AG withdrew its outlook for this year due to the uncertainty of trade barriers. Volkswagen AG’s earnings dropped 40%. A global rally in stocks faces a key test Wednesday when the US releases inflation and gross-domestic-product data that will give investors more information on how the economy was faring just before President Donald Trump disclosed country-specific levies on April 2. Investors have been cautiously optimistic — the Nasdaq 100 is close to erasing all of its losses since Trump’s announcement — after some tariff reprieves and speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession. Investors will get a better picture of how US companies are navigating the new environment as more earnings roll in.
Snap Inc. plunged in after-hours trading after declining to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it’s navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business. Super Micro Computer’s preliminary results fell short of analysts’ projections. Starbucks Corp. reported sales that fell slightly faster than expected. 
General Motors Co. and JetBlue Airways Corp. pulled their outlooks, while United Parcel Service Inc. said it expects to cut 20,000 jobs this year. Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple Inc., Meta and Amazon.com Inc. — are reporting earnings this week. Analysts expect the group — which also includes Google-parent Alphabet, Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions. In Asia, a gauge of China’s factory activity signaled the deepest contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage to the world’s second-biggest economy from the trade war with the US. After the data, offshore yuan edged lower, extending its first monthly decline this year. Copper retreated from its highest close since early April. Shares in Samsung Electronics Co. dropped as its chip business reported a roughly 40% drop in profit after US export controls dented sales of its high-end chips. Meanwhile, US real GDP growth likely cooled to a standstill in the first quarter as Trump’s policy shifts disrupted activity, according to Bloomberg Economics before the data is published later Wednesday. Some emerging market countries such as India will do quite well in the current environment, said Mark Mobius. The veteran emerging-markets investor has kept the bulk of his funds’ holdings in cash given that the trade-related uncertainty is likely to persist for up to six months. In the latest pivot in Trump’s trade strategy, the US president signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US. Trump also renewed criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as he championed his economic policies and tariff regime during an event on Tuesday to mark his 100th day in office. Trump said China deserved the steep tariffs he imposed on their exports and predicted Beijing could find a way to reduce their impact on American consumers. In commodities, oil headed for its worst-ever April on signs the trade war is hurting economic growth and energy demand. US After Hours ODD +20.9%, FRSH +11.3%, QRVO +9%, STX +9% higher on earnings; TENB -17.8%, SMCI -15.6%, SNAP -14.1%, FSLR -9.1%, SBUX -6.1%, BKNG -3% lower on earnings/guidance.

Nikkei +0.36% Hang Seng +0.21% CSI -0.08% Shanghai -0.13% Shenzen +0.89%

Eur$ 1.1390 CNH 7.2641 CNY 7.2659 JPY 142.54 GBP 1.3394 CHF 0.8234 RUB 82.1889 TRY 38.5017 WTI$ 59.64 -1.32% Gold 3,310 -0.23% BTC 94,935 +0.07% ETH 1,806 -0.20%

S&P -0.42% Nasdaq -0.59% EuroStoxx -0.14% FTSE -0.04% Dax +0.05% SMI -0.25%

Macro :
- Huawei delivers advanced AI chip ‘cluster’ to Chinese clients cut off from Nvidia
- Mark Mobius Says His Funds Hold 95% in Cash on Trade War Risks
- Trump to Announce Auto Tariff Easing in Michigan, FT Reports
- US Approves Possible $1.33b Military Sale to Poland
- Altman to Testify on AI to Senate Panel, Fox Business Reports

Keep an eye on :
- ADYEN NA : Adyen 1Q Net Revenue Meets Estimates
- AED BB : Aedifica’s First Quarter ‘Operationally Solid’: Street Wrap
- AIXA GY : Aixtron 1Q Ebit Misses Estimates
- AKSO NO : Aker Solutions 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- AMS SW : AMS-Osram 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- ANDR AV : Andritz 1Q Revenue Misses Est. With Paper, Metal Lagging (1)
- APAM NA : Aperam 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- AAPL US : Apple Wants to Build iPhone in US, Needs Robots, Lutnick Says
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal Warns of Trade Disruptions While Steel Prices Rise
- ASM NA : ASM International ADRs Rise After Orders Beat, Outlook Update
- AML LN : Aston Martin 1Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- ATCOA SS : Atlas Copco to Utilize Mandates to Buy Back, Sell Shares
- BFSA GY : Befesa Sees FY Ebitda EU240M to EU265M
- BX US : Blackstone Explores $3b Sale of Sphera: Reuters
- BOL FP : Bollore 1Q Organic Revenue +0.2%
- BRG NO : Borregaard 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- BKNG US : Booking 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates: Snapshot, Booking Tweaks Revenue Outlook on Increased Economic Uncertainty, *EXPEDIA DOWN 2.5%, TRIPADVISOR OFF 1.7% AFTER BOOKING RESULTS
- BP/ LN : Woodside Signs Gas Supply Pact With BP for Louisiana LNG
- BHF US : *TPG, APOLLO, OTHERS SUBMITTED OFFERS FOR BRIGHTHOUSE: SEMAFOR
- CABK SM : CaixaBank 1Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- COK GY : Cancom Prelim 1Q Revenue EU410.4M
- CO FP : Casino 1Q Net Sales EU2.00B Vs. EU2.22B Q/Q
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole 1Q Net Income Misses Estimates
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole to Propose Jerome Grivet as Sole Deputy CEO
- DELL US :
- ROO LN : Grab Raises Forecast as Revenue Beats Estimates on Ride Demand
- DEZ GY : Deutz 1Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- DHL GY : Deutsche Post 1Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- DRW3 GY : Draegerwerk 1Q Ebit Margin 0.1%
- DSFIR NA : DSM-Firmenich 1Q Net Sales Match Estimates
- DSV DC : DSV 1Q Ebit Before Significant Items Meets Estimates
- EDP PL : Aneel approves recommendation for renewal of EDP ES concession
- ENG SM : Enagas 1Q Net Income EU65.2M Vs. EU65.3M Y/y
- EQNR NO : Equinor 1Q Adjusted Operating Income After Tax Misses Estimates
- EBS AV : Erste Sees FY Fee and Commission Income Above +5%
- EVO SS : Evolution Maintains FY Ebitda Margin Forecast
- FIE GY : Fielmann Sees FY Sales About EU2.5B, Est. EU2.46B
- FSLR US : First Solar Cuts FY Net Sales Forecast
- FPE GY : Fuchs 1Q Ebit Misses Estimates
- HLAG GY : Hapag-Lloyd Prelim 1Q Ebitda $1.1B
- HYQ GY : Hypoport Prelim 1Q Ebit About EU8.5M
- IDIA SW : Idorsia 1Q Revenue CHF59M
- KNEBV FH : Kone Sees FY Adjusted Ebit Margin 11.8% to 12.4%, Est. 12.2%
- LOGN SW : Logitech 4Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- MELE BB : Melexis 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- MBG GY : Mercedes Says Tariff Volatility Too High For Reliable Outlook, Mercedes Withdraws Guidance Over Trump’s Auto Tariffs
- META US : Activist Robby Starbuck Sues Meta Over AI Answers About Him -- WSJ
- METSO FH : Metso Signs EU700m Revolver Linked to Sustainability Targets
- MDLZ US : Mondelez Sees FY Organic Net Revenue About +5%, Est. +4.88%
- NTGY SM : Naturgy’s Reynes Wins Authorization for Criteria Board Seat
- NEL NO : Nel 1Q Orders NOK311M Vs. NOK398M Y/y
- NEM GY : Nemetschek 1Q Ebitda Margin Misses Estimates
- NEX FP : Nexans 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- NKE US : Nike Forms New Team for Secretive Brand With Kim Kardashian
- OMV AV : OMV 1Q Profit Misses Estimates as Global Trade Risks Mount (1)
- ONTEX BB : Ontex 1Q Like-for-Like Sales -2.8%
- PARA US : Paramount Board Clears Possible Path for Settling Trump’s ‘60 Minutes’ Lawsuit
- PFE US : *PFIZER TO SPEND UP TO $15 BILLION THIS YEAR TO BOOST PIPELINE, *PFIZER'S BOURLA SAID HE'S SEEKING TWO OR THREE DEALS IN 2025
- PRU LN : Prudential 1Q New Business Profit $608M
- REP SM : Repsol 1Q Adjusted Income Beats Estimates (1)
- RWE GY : RWE Reports 33% Drop in Offshore Wind Output in 1Q 2025
- RCO FP : Remy Cointreau 4Q Organic Revenue Misses Estimates
- SDZ SW : Sandoz Group 1Q Net Sales Miss Estimates
- SAN FP : Sanofi Granted FDA Orphan Drug Status for Riliprubart
- SAN SM : Santander 1Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- STX US : Seagate Sees 4Q Adjusted EPS About $2.40, Est. $2.06
- SCHP SW : Schindler 1Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- WAF GY : Siltronic Cuts FY Ebitda Margin Forecast
- SNAP US : Snap 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates: Snapshot, Snap’s Lack of Guide Suggests Ad-Pricing Weakness: Street Wrap
- SWON SW : SoftwareOne Controls 83,8% of Shares in Crayon as of April 29
- SOP FP : Sopra Steria 1Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- SBUX US : Starbucks 2Q Comparable Sales Miss Estimates: Snapshot
- STMN SW : Straumann 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- SNR LN : Sullivan Is Said to Near Deal for Senior’s Aerostructures Unit
- SMCI US : Super Micro Computer Falls as Prelim 3Q Adj EPS Misses Estimates
- TE FP : Technip Energies 1Q Adjusted Recurring Ebit Beats Estimates
- TKA AV : Telekom Austria 1Q Revenue Matches Estimates
- TRVG US : Trivago 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- UBSG SW : UBS Profit Beats Estimates as Traders Reap Gains from Volatility
- UMG NA : UMG 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- FR FP : Valeo 1Q Revenue Meets Estimates (1)
- VCT FP : Vicat 1Q Sales Beat Estimates
- VIRI FP : Viridien Maintains FY Net Cash Flow Forecast
- V US : Visa 2Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates: Snapshot
- VLTSA FP : Voltalia 1Q Revenue EU113.3M
- VOW GY : VW Sees FY Operating ROS Low End of 5.5% to 6.5%, Est. 5.51%
- VU FP : VusionGroup Holder BOE Smart Retail Offers EU165 million Shares
- WCH GY : Wacker Chemie 1Q Ebit Misses Estimates
- WHR US : Whirlpool Debt Rating Cut to Junk by Moody’s on Weak Demand (1)
- 1810 HK : Xiaomi Joins China AI Game With Maiden DeepSeek-Like Modelv+4,74% in HK

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of April 2025

>>> Up
* Artifex Mundi Raised to Hold at BDM; PT 16.55 zloty
* Engcon Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 110 kronor
* Hafnia Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 57 kroner
* Netum Group Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 2.60 euros
* SEB Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 140 kronor
* SGS Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 97 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Cheniere Energy Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* Epiroc Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 225 kronor
* eQ Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 11 euros
* F-Secure Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 2.30 euros
* First Solar Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $100
* Fugro Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 12 euros
* Gjensidige Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 244 kroner
* INWIT Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 10.50 euros
* NCC Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 190 kronor
* Nordic Semiconductor Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 120 kroner
* NXP Semi PT Cut to $130 from $258 at Truist Secs
* Paccar Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $90
* Porsche Cut to Sell at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 39 euros
* ProSieben Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 7 euros
* Sotkamo Silver Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 0.75 kronor
* Telenor Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 166 kroner
* THG PLC Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 27 pence
* Western Bulk Chartering Cut to Hold at DNB Markets
* Zalando Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 28.50 euros

>>> Initiation
* Elmos Semiconductor Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 87 euros
* Galliford Try Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 470 pence
* JD.com ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $60
* Salesforce Inc Rated New Buy at WestPark Capital; PT $320
* Swissquote Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Tesla Rated New Buy at Founder Securities

>>> Call
* Apple Price Target Lowered at Raymond James on Tariff Headwinds

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Kion (KGX TH) +2.6%
    • Kion 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
  • SocGen (SGE TH) +2%
    • *SOCGEN 1Q NET INCOME EU1.61B, EST. EU1.22B
  • Deutsche Post (DHL TH) +1.9%
    • Deutsche Post 1Q Ebit Beats Estimates
  • Novo (NOV TH) +1.8%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +1.7%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +1.6%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) +1.3%
  • Santander (BSD2 TH) +1.2%
    • *SANTANDER 1Q NET INCOME EU3.40B, EST. EU3.18B
  • Eiffage (EF3 TH) +1.1%
  • LVMH (MOH TH) +1%
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) -0.6%
    • Mercedes Withdraws Guidance Over Trump’s Auto Tariffs (1)
  • Shell (R6C0 TH) -0.7%
  • BP (BPE5 TH) -0.9%
  • VW (VOW3 TH) -1.3%
    • VW Sees FY Operating ROS Low End of 5.5% to 6.5%, Est. 5.51%
  • Fugro (F3DC TH) -1.4%
    • Fugro Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 12 euros
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) -2.6%
    • *ADYEN 1Q NET REV. EU534.7M, EST. EU539.6M
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) -3.6%
    • Zalando Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 28.50 euros
  • Evolution (E3G1 TH) -4.9%
    • Evolution Maintains FY Ebitda Margin Forecast

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) +1%
    • BlackRock, Inc. Cut Daimler Truck Voting Rights to 3.54%
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) -0.7%
    • Mercedes Withdraws Guidance Over Trump’s Auto Tariffs (1)
  • VW (VOW3 TH) -1%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) -2.8%
    • Zalando Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 28.50 euros
MDAX:
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +3.4%
    • Aixtron 1Q Ebit Misses Estimates
  • Kion (KGX TH) +2.9%
    • Kion 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +1.9%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.4%
SDAX:
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +4.1%
    • Deutz 1Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
  • Mutares (MUX TH) +2.1%
  • Sixt (SIX2 TH) +1%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) -0.8%
    • ProSieben Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 7 euros
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) -0.9%
  • Siltronic (WAF TH) -2.5%
    • Siltronic Cuts FY Ebitda Margin Forecast

>>> US After Hours Summary: ODD +20.9%, FRSH +11.3%, QRVO +9%, STX +9% higher on

After Hours Summary: ODD +20.9%, FRSH +11.3%, QRVO +9%, STX +9% higher on earnings; TENB -17.8%, SMCI -15.6%, SNAP -14.1%, FSLR -9.1%, SBUX -6.1%, BKNG -3% lower on earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ODD +20.9%, ORN +17.7%, JAKK +15.1%, FRSH +11.3%, RCKY +9.8%, QRVO +9%, STX +9%, LFUS +8.7%, ETWO +8.6%, BBIO +7.3%, TTI +6.9%, OI +6.6%, FLS +6.5%, NOG +6.3%, CLW +5.7%, NBR +5.2%, SIMO +4.1%, LRN +3.7%, TX +3%, ROG +2.9%, QUAD +2.9%, CWH +2.3%, MIR +2.2%, CZR +1.9%, MDLZ +1.7%, SAGE +1.7%, APAM +1.1%, STAG +1%, HURN +0.8%, ENSG +0.7%, MSA +0.7%, ENVA +0.6%, AKR +0.1%, BHE +0.1%, PPG +0.1%, VLTO +0.1%, JBGS +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ABVX +5.3% (completes enrollment for Phase 3 ABTECT trials), NVCT +4.3% (provides poster presentation highlights for NXP900), SVCO +2.3% (acquires Tech-X), XNCR +1.4% (reports results from first-in-human study of XmAb942), MRTN +0.8% (Director bought 20000 shares), NFGC +0.5% (announces new drill results), BX +0.2% (exploring $3 bln sale of Sphera, according to Reuters), NTRA +0.1% (announces results of its DEFINE-HT clinical trial)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: TENB -17.8%, SMCI -15.6%, SNAP -14.1%, HRZN -10%, VICR -9.5%, FSLR -9.1%, RBBN -8.8%, UNM -7.9%, HI -6.1%, SBUX -6.1%, LC -5.1% (also acquires IP behind Cushion), WERN -4.9%, KAI -4.8%, FIBK -4.7%, BKNG -3%, FICO -2.9%, FYBR -2.8%, OKE -2.6%, V -1.8% (also authorizes new $30 bln share repurchase program), BXP -1.7%, ESS -1.5%, EIX -1.2%, CSGP -0.8%, UMBF -0.8%, SON -0.5%, ACGL -0.1%, ESRT -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: EXPE -2.4% (in sympathy with weak BKNG earnings), ABNB -2.2% (in sympathy with weak BKNG earnings), NVDA -1.9% (in sympathy with weak SMCI guidance), AIN -1.8% (wins Bell Textron contract), ACEL -1% (CFO resigns), OUST -0.9% (names new CFO), AREN -0.8% (settles litigation with Authentic Brands), LI -0.3% (CE and LI to collaborate on joint initiative to launch ultra-low emission material), DJT -0.3% (publishes letter to shareholders), CWAN -0.1% (names new COO), GVA -0.1% (wins $38 mln CDOT contract), MTAL -0.1% (provides Q1 update)

FT : Elliott’s activist bet on BP goes from slick to slippery

Elliott’s activist bet on BP goes from slick to slippery
Oil major’s turnaround depends to some extent on the world remaining relatively predictable

Activist investors start with a simple enough idea: take an underperforming company, sometimes with too much debt. Push it to slim down. Hammer its remaining business into reasonable shape. And then enjoy a veritable gush of cash. That is a reasonable description of Elliott’s bet on beleaguered oil major BP. Yet sometimes the universe has other ideas. 

BP reported earnings on Tuesday that were half what they were a year ago. That wasn’t because of the oil price, which was $65 a barrel on Tuesday, down from around $80 on average in 2024. Instead, the group was hit by lower profits from trading gas.

Still, the oil price matters. A handy rule of thumb sees BP losing $340mn of annual operating profit for every dollar off oil. Should Tuesday’s spot price be the average for the year, that alone would lop $5bn off last year’s underlying operating profit of almost $21bn. The shares are now down by a quarter compared with where they were in February, when Elliott popped up with a stake.

True, BP is hardly the only oil major to be hit by falling oil prices. And Elliott has hedged some of the so-called macro risk by shorting shares in rivals Shell and TotalEnergies.

But that still leaves Elliott, or any investor, exposed to some specific risks. First, BP has lots of debt — $27bn at the end of the first quarter, net of cash — though that number has been pushed up by temporary factors. Adding in hybrid bonds, an all-in figure is likely closer to $44bn, thinks Citigroup, or more than twice last year’s cash flow. That makes it particularly sensitive to oil price moves. 


The second issue is that, to some extent, BP’s turnaround depends on the world remaining relatively predictable. Much of the expected value creation comes from the roughly $20bn of assets that it plans to sell by 2027. BP has made a solid start on this, signing agreements worth $1.5bn so far this year. But on-off tariff uncertainty has shrivelled the appetite for M&A, which may make it hard for BP to get top dollar for its wares. 

Moreover, BP is trying to pivot back to oil and gas after its foray into renewables, but its high debt levels also dictate the pace. A burdened balance sheet, for instance, limits the company’s ability to acquire small oil and gas companies to replace its reserves, which dropped 13 per cent between 2022 and 2024.

BP boss Murray Auchincloss isn’t powerless amid the turmoil. He has trimmed investments and has plans to do more. Elliott, meanwhile, wants him to go even further — which is easier to do when times are bleak. The deeper the oil price sinks, the longer and harder BP will have to dig.