(BFW) HSBC Lists Most/Least Compelling Global Consumer Stocks


HSBC Lists Most/Least Compelling Global Consumer Stocks
2014-07-02 23:46:42.369 GMT


By Grant Clark
     July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Lists 26 compelling overweights and 6
underweights in report led by analyst Erwan Rambourg.
  * Overweight: AB InBev, Nike, Essilor, Danone, Mengniu Dairy,
    Samsonite, Li & Fung, SCA, Anta, AmorePacific, Biostime,
    Burberry, Daimler, Haier, Orion, Sands China, Casino, H&M,
    ITC, Puregold, Lotte Shopping, Chow Tai Fook, Richemont,
    Tiffany, Pandora, Folli Follie
  * Underweight: Beiersdorf, Belle, Carlsberg, Grupo Bimbo,
    Morrison, Tesco





For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Grant Clark in Singapore at +65-6212-1101 or
gclark@bloomberg.net

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Australia Retail Sales drop to 14-month lows as RBA Gov Stevens talks down AUD

***Notable Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA JUN HSBC SERVICES PMI: 53.1 (15-month high) V 50.7 PRIOR; COMPOSITE PMI: 52.4 V 50.2 PRIOR - (CN) CHINA JUN NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.0 V 55.5 PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.5% V 0.0%E (biggest decline since Mar 2013) - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: 9.9% (8-month high) V 3.2%E; Y/Y: 14.3% V 8.0%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN AIG PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES INDEX: 47.6 V 49.9 PRIOR (4th consecutive contraction, 6-month low) - (JP) JAPAN JUN MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 49.0 (3rd straight month of contraction) V 49.3 PRIOR; MARKIT/JMMA COMPOSITE PMI: 50.0 V 49.2 PRIOR

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -0.1%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Sept S&P500 -0.1% at 1,966

***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Aug gold -0.4% at $1,325, Aug crude oil -0.5% at $104.00/brl, Sept Copper flat at $3.26/lb - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,038 tonnes from 10,042 tonnes prior (lowest since Feb 19th) - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.20T in 0.6% (0.6% prior) 10-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.562% v 0.608% prior; Bid to cover: 3.43x v 3.74x prior - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY10B in 28-day repos (2nd consecutive drain); Injects net CNY55B this week v injected CNY12B prior (8th consecutive week of net injection) - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1581 v 6.1549 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Jun 6th) - (US) S&P: Fundamentals support baseline US GDP forecast of 2.3% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes*** - AUD/USD is once again the most active cross among the dollar majors, falling sharply for the 2nd consecutive session after hitting an 8-month high above $0.95 earlier this week. Mixed China services PMIs have taken a back seat to increasingly more dovish sentiment from RBA Gov Stevens and the biggest drop in retail sales since March of 2013. Stevens stated that while monetary policy is very accommodative, RBA still has ammunition on interest rates, adding that AUD is overvalued by most measures and the troubling property sector inflation may be abating. Recall AUD has received a modest boost from the recent RBA policy statements when the central bank abstained from more aggressive remarks on currency in spite of the deteriorating economic fundamentals.

- China's largest cement maker Anhui is up nearly 5% in Shanghai after guiding H1 net profit to rise 90%. China's Qilu Bank also clarified that the recent missed loan payment was not related to a local government financing vehicle (LGFV). Yesterday, reports noted Qilu Bank sued the vehicle over bad loans, raising the possibility of the first official admission of a default by local govt.

- A research note from S&P reiterated baseline projections for US GDP of 2.3% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015, supported by "steady improvement in manufacturing activity employment numbers and consumer sentiment." That report was also upbeat on the auto sector for the next 12-18 months, given low interest rate environment and recovering property sector.

***Equities*** US markets: - LULU: Founder's advisers said to be sounding out private equity firms about buyout - financial press; +1.5% afterhours - SNX: Reports Q2 $1.52 (adj) v $1.38e, R$3.45B v $3.17Be; -2.7% afterhours - BIND: Announces Completion of Collaboration Agreement with Amgen; -16.2% afterhours - RGDO: Announces Initiation of DSMB review of REGULATE-PCI Data; -40.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector: - Materials: Anhui Conch Cement 914.HK +4.9% (H1 guidance); Silver Lake Resources SLR.AU -5.4% (FY14 gold sales result) - Technology: Guangzhou Hongli Opto-Electronic 300219.CN +1.9% (H1 guidance); Toshiba 6502.JP +2.5% (may be awarded $4.9B reactor contract) - Healthcare: Shanghai Kehua Bio-Engineering 002022.CN +2.8%, Jilin Zixin Pharmaceutical Industrial 002118.CN +4.3%, Da An Gene Co Ltd Sun Yat-Sen University 002030.CN +10.0%, Hunan China Sun Pharmaceutical Machinery 300216.CN +6.8% (China allows usage of gene sequencing) - Consumer discretionary: ABC-Mart 2670.JP +0.8% (press reports on Q1 results) - Industrials: Hyundai Heavy 000720.KR +1.4% (contract award)

>>> US after hours


After Hours Summary: SNX -2.4% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers: 
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: QTS +1.7% (acquired New Jersey data center from McGraw Hill Financial (MHFI) and formed strategic partnership with ATOS), GLNG +0.7% (entered into key agreements for maiden floating liquefaction vessel), GM +0.5% (announced that total GM Canada sales were down 15% in June 2014)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: SNX -2.4%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: BIND -15.0% (announced the completion of its collaborative research program with Amgen (AMGN); companies will not be exercising their options to develop an Accurin incorporating the Amgen therapeutic payload), AZC -0.6% (co and Hudbay Minerals (HBM) announce filing of offer documents for friendly acquisition) 

NYT : A father that unravels bnp's illegal deals

A Grieving Father Pulls a Thread That Unravels BNP’s Illegal Deals

A bus bombing two decades ago — and a New Jersey father’s quest for justice — inadvertently set off a chain of events that led American prosecutors to accuse some of the world’s biggest banks of transferring money for nations like Iran.

On Monday, that crackdown culminated with the guilty plea of BNP Paribas, which admitted to doing billions of dollars in deals with Iran and other countries blacklisted by the United States and agreed to pay a record $8.9 billion penalty to state and federal authorities.

The trail that ultimately led to BNP began in 2006, when the Manhattan district attorney’s office came upon a lawsuit filed by the father, who blamed Iran for financing the Gaza bus bombing that killed his 20-year-old daughter. Buried in the court filings, prosecutors found a stunning accusation: a charity that owned a gleaming office tower on Fifth Avenue was actually a “front” for the Iranian government, a claim that the prosecutors later verified.

The prosecutors soon discovered that Credit Suisse and Lloyds, two of the world’s most prestigious banks, had acted as Iran’s portal to the United States financial system. To disguise the illicit transactions — the United States is closed for business to Iran — Credit Suisse and Lloyds stripped out the Iranian clients’ names from wire transfers to the Fifth Avenue charity and affiliated entities. The findings led the Manhattan prosecutors and the Justice Department in Washington to announce criminal cases against both banks.

Video | Holder Announces BNP Paribas Plea Deal Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. announced that BNP Paribas will plead guilty to criminal charges and pay a $8.9 billion fine for violating sanctions.
As those cases were coming to light in 2009, a whistle-blower stepped forward to point the finger at BNP, France’s biggest bank. That tip has now materialized in a landmark criminal settlement, with BNP pleading guilty to criminal charges, capping a sweeping investigation into the bank’s ties to Sudan and Iran.

The twists and turns leading to the BNP case — a series of whistle-blower tips and fortuitous discoveries recounted in interviews with current and former prosecutors — open a window into the interconnected yet shadowy world of global finance. At its center is New York City, the heart of American capitalism where banks process billions of dollars in payments on behalf of international clients.

It is a cautionary tale of how European banks, spotting a lucrative business opportunity that American rivals shunned, opened their doors to countries under sanctions and ultimately exposed their reputations to the stain of criminal cases. The interviews with prosecutors, some who spoke freely and others anonymously, also tell a story of how a local prosecutor’s office in New York, perhaps better known for crackdowns on drugs and organized crime, landed in the middle of an international investigation into terrorist bombings and foreign banks.

“We’re often asked why a local prosecutor is getting involved in a case of global financial crime, and my answer is how could we not,” Cyrus R. Vance Jr., the Manhattan district attorney, said in an interview. “We’re situated in the finance capital of the world. We just had to know where to look to connect the dots.”

The district attorney’s role in the case, which began under Mr. Vance’s predecessor, Robert M. Morgenthau, was not always clear. Adam Kaufmann, a prosecutor who helped lead the investigations, once traveled to Washington to meet with officials from the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the primary enforcer of American sanctions against Iran. The Treasury Department, he recalled, was baffled as to why a Manhattan prosecutor was investigating the case at all.

The investigation, Mr. Kaufmann explained, began in earnest back in January 2006. At the time, in a cramped office cubicle in lower Manhattan, a 32-year-old analyst for the Manhattan district attorney’s office pored over the New Jersey father’s lawsuit against Iran. The father, Stephen Flatow of West Orange, N.J., accused Iran of funding the terrorist group responsible for the suicide bombing in Gaza that killed his daughter, Alisa, in 1995.

A federal judge awarded Mr. Flatow, a lawyer at a title company, $250 million in damages. Iran never paid. And so Mr. Flatow sought to collect from the Alavi Foundation, the charity that he claimed was a front for the Iranian government.

The analyst at the district attorney’s office, Eitan Arusy, took a keen interest in the father’s accusations. Before joining the office, he was an Israeli soldier who happened to have responded to the scene of that very same bus bombing.

And the Alavi Foundation, it turned out, was in the heart of the district attorney’s jurisdiction. It held an ownership stake in a Fifth Avenue skyscraper just steps from Rockefeller Center and the Museum of Modern Art. The 36-story tower, formerly known as the Piaget Building, was built in the late 1970s by a non-profit tied to the Shah of Iran.

One day in 2006, Laura Billings, a prosecutor in the district attorney’s office who helped lead the Alavi Foundation investigation, visited the tower to see for herself whether anything suspicious was unfolding inside. But the building, which has housed the offices of Ivan F. Boesky, the famed Wall Street speculator who was convicted as part of the 1980s insider trading scandal, and is currently home to Godiva, the chocolate maker, was an ordinary office tower.

The prosecutors reached a breakthrough, however, during a visit to a Persian rug shop owner who had ties to Iran. Gathered around a table, picking at watermelon and pistachios, the shop owner and prosecutors discussed politics and family. At the end of the conversation came a revelation: the Alavi Foundation, the shop owner declared, was completely under the control of Iran.

Another confidential informant provided additional clues, specifically that the Alavi Foundation had received millions of dollars from Bank Melli, an Iranian state-owned bank. Get the payment records, the informant explained, and prosecutors would find the trail to Iran.

But when the prosecutors and the F.B.I. pulled the charity’s bank records, Bank Melli was nowhere to be found. Credit Suisse and Lloyds were there instead.

The evidence against the Alavi Foundation was extensive, former prosecutors say, but pointed to a federal case rather than a local one. The district attorney’s office ceded its Alavi investigation to the United States attorney’s office in Manhattan. Under United States attorney Preet Bharara, federal prosecutors filed a civil complaint accusing the Alavi Foundation of “providing numerous services to the Iranian government.” That action led to Mr. Bharara announcing a settlement agreement that forced the Alavi Foundation to forfeit its holdings in the office tower. When the government sells the building, the proceeds will flow to the families and estates of victims of terrorism.

With the Alavi Foundation case off its plate, the district attorney’s office turned its focus to Credit Suisse and Lloyds. The prosecutors offered the banks a choice: turn over records related to Iranian banks or face a criminal case.

The banks chose to cooperate, producing reams of records that laid bare a scheme to disguise how Bank Melli was funneling money into the United States. To avoid detection, the records showed, Credit Suisse and Lloyds falsified money-transfer paperwork, replacing Bank Melli’s name with their own.

“Please do not mention our name to any bank in the USA,” Bank Melli wrote to Lloyds in one of the documents obtained by prosecutors.

Unbeknown to the prosecutors in Manhattan, the Justice Department’s criminal division in Washington had its own investigation into Credit Suisse. The inquiry from the division’s asset forfeiture and money laundering section, now led by Jaikumar Ramaswamy, began with a tip from an I.R.S. agent who had spotted a suspicious transaction.

The parallel investigations merged at a legal conference in 2007, when Mr. Kaufmann from the district attorney’s office lunched with a Justice Department official. Out of the meeting came a plan to pursue not only Credit Suisse and Lloyds, but other foreign banks suspected of flouting United States sanctions. When Mr. Kaufmann left the office in 2013, he handed the cases to his successor, David Szuchman, and a senior prosecutor, Polly Greenberg.

The cases benefited from a trove of internal emails from Credit Suisse that showed how bank executives strategized ways to capture business from Iran once Lloyds left the market. If Credit Suisse did not act fast, the emails warned, it might lose out to other European banks.

In 2009, prosecutors kicked off a string of cases, first taking aim at Lloyds and then Credit Suisse. Barclays settled in 2010, laying the groundwork for ING, Standard Chartered and HSBC to strike their own deals in 2012.

“I felt strongly that banks should not be used as vehicles for transferring illicit funds or contraband on behalf of sanctioned countries,” Mr. Morgenthau, who at 94 is now of counsel to the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz said in an interview.

The BNP case announced on Monday traces to these deals. As the deals were being negotiated, a whistle-blower approached a rank-and-file prosecutor at the Manhattan district attorney’s office about BNP’s ties to Iran. BNP was also doing business with Sudan at a time that the nation was operating a genocidal regime. The whistle-blower is not expected to receive any compensation for assisting the case.

The case — a collaboration among the Justice Department in Washington, the United States attorney’s office and the district attorney’s office in Manhattan, as well as the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department and Benjamin M. Lawsky, New York State’s financial regulator — stood apart from the others. The volume of transactions reached tens of billions of dollars. And the $8.9 billion penalty is more than triple the amount that the six other banks collectively paid to resolve sanctions cases.

For Mr. Flatow, who eventually received $25 million, the actions are vindicating.

“The fact that our case laid the groundwork for these actions is really a tribute to Alisa who would be 40 this year,” he said.Alain Delaqueriere contributed research.

(MergerMarket) Emerson mandates Goldman for divest

Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) is working with Goldman Sachs on the potential sale of its power transmission solutions business, said three industry sources. The first source estimated the business may fetch just under USD 1bn in the event of a sale.

The company has not kicked off a sale process for the business, which is expected to attract strategics and private equity firms.

A spokesperson for St. Louis, Missouri-based Emerson declined comment. Goldman Sachs also declined comment.

Last Friday, the global diversified technology company announced it was evaluating strategic alternatives for power transmission solutions. The business' products include belt and chain drives, helical and worm gearing, mounted and unmounted bearings, couplings, modular plastic belts and conveying chains and components.

Emerson said plans for power transmission solutions, which is housed in the company’s Industrial Automation segment, are expected to be "determined and announced" by year end.

Power transmission solutions may command a multiple north of what Gates recently received, in part, given its end markets are much less cyclical given it does not have automotive exposure, said the second source. The same source said the business had double digit margins, approaching 20%.

In April, Blackstone announced an agreement to acquire power transmission and fluid transfer solutions business, Gates, from Onex and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board for approximately USD 5.4bn. The deal valued Gates at approximately 9.6x adjusted EBITDA.

Since spring, there has been talk among the investment banking community that Emerson was weighing options for power transmission solutions, according to several industry sources. The company has been “flirting” with strategics, said the first source, while another of the sources noted that prior to the announcement “everyone [was] chatting [a potential deal] up.”

The business has long been considered a “not whether, but when” candidate for divestiture said a fourth industry source, describing power transmission solutions as an asset that is not long for Emerson’s portfolio.

Altra Industrial Motion (NASDAQ:AIMC) is among the best comparables for the Emerson business, said two of the sources. The Braintree, Massachusetts-based company designs, produces and markets a range of mechanical power transmission products.

Other comps include Rexnord (NYSE:RXN), whose Process & Motion Control arm includes gears, couplings, industrial bearings, aerospace bearings and seals, and Regal Beloit’s (NYSE:RBC) mechanical segment, which manufactures an array of mechanical motion control product, said one of the sources. Regal Beloit lists Emerson Power Transmission as a major domestic competitor.

The same source suggested Timken’s (NYSE:TKR) power transmissions arm as a comparable. On 30 June, the Canton, Ohio-based company announced the completion of its spinoff of its steel business, TimkenSteel, which began trading independently on Tuesday. The remaining business is focused on Timken’s bearings and power transmission products.

>>> US Close Dow +0,12% S&P +0,07% Nasdaq -0,0@%

Closing Market Summary: Health Care Climbs But Market Ends Little Changed
The stock market spent the Wednesday session in a narrow range, which resulted in the S&P 500 posting a slim gain of less than two points (0.1%) with six sectors ending in the green. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) outperformed slightly, while the Russell 2000 (-0.4%) lagged.

The major averages climbed out of the gate, but the early strength was short-lived as only a handful of sectors were able to distance themselves from their flat lines. The lack of concerted sector leadership caused the key indices to return to their flat lines, where they remained into the close.

One sector that displayed notable strength throughout the session was yesterday's leader—health care. The countercyclical group added 0.7% with biotechnology underpinning the advance. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 264.55, +1.43) tacked on 0.5%.

The relative strength of biotechnology was unable to boost the Nasdaq Composite (unch), which suffered from relative weakness among high-growth names. For instance Facebook (FB 66.45, -1.61), Netflix (NFLX 466.74, -6.36), Priceline.com (PCLN 1237.84, -8.93), and Tesla (TSLA 229.42, -10.29) lost between 0.7% and 4.3%. Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary (+0.2%) and technology (unch) sectors ended little changed.

‘Little changed' is how the entire cyclical side ended the trading day. The materials sector (+0.2%) posted a slim gain, while energy (-0.1%), financials (unch), and industrials (-0.1%) settled in the red.

Notably, the industrial sector was pressured by transport stocks, and specifically, airlines. Delta Air Lines (DAL 38.24, -2.07) and United Continental (UAL 39.27, -2.99) registered respective losses of 5.1% and 7.1% after Delta reported disappointing monthly passenger unit revenue, while the broader Dow Jones Transportation Average shed 0.4%.

Returning to countercyclical sectors for a second, two other defensively-oriented groups—consumer staples (+0.2%) and telecom services (+0.5%)—posted gains, while the utilities sector (-2.0%) finished at the bottom of the leaderboard for the second day in a row.

The magnitude of the loss in the rate-sensitive sector was likely assisted by today's increase in Treasury yields. Treasuries tumbled to lows following today's ADP Employment report and continued drifting lower throughout the trading day. The 10-yr note lost half a point, sending its yield higher by six basis points to 2.62%.

Participation was well below average with less than 585 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Economic data included May Factory Orders, June ADP Employment, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Index:
  • Factory orders declined 0.5% in May after increasing an upwardly revised 0.8% (from 0.7%) in April. The consensus expected a decline of 0.4% 
    • The revisions to the May durable goods data were extremely minor. Total orders were revised up from the advance (-1.0%), but still fell 0.9%. These orders increased 0.9% in May 
    • Transportation orders, which were originally down 3.0%, were revised to -2.9% 
    • Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were flat in May after originally reporting a small 0.1% decline 
  • According to the ADP National Employment Report, employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose by 281K in June. That was well above the increase of 200K expected by the consensus 
    • The May reading was left unrevised at 179,000 
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Index slipped 0.2% to follow last week's 1.0% decline 
Tomorrow, the Challenger Job Cuts report for June will be released at 7:30 ET, while weekly initial claims (consensus 315K), June Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus 210K), and May Trade Balance (consensus -$45.20 billion) will all be released at 8:30 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of the June ISM Services report (expected 56.5).
  • S&P 500 +6.8% YTD 
  • Nasdaq Composite +6.7% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.4% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +3.1% YTD

FT : AbbVie courts shareholders to put pressure on Shire over bid

The chief executive of AbbVie has urged Shire shareholders to press the FTSE 100 pharmaceutical group to engage with the US company regarding its £27bn takeover approach.
AbbVie’s Richard Gonzalez flew back to his company’s Chicago headquarters this week after telling large Shire shareholders that AbbVie would like to see the UK company’s books before it would consider making an improved offer, according to people in attendance.

The meetings in London this week came after Shire, which focuses on treatments for rare diseases and neurological disorders, rejected three separate proposals from AbbVie beginning in early May. It has said that AbbVie’s latest £46.26 a share offer “fundamentally undervalued” the company.
Shire indicated to the Financial Times on Wednesday that it was up to AbbVie to make the next move. “Shire has made its position very clear and the ball is firmly in Abbvie’s court,” the company said.
One investor who met Mr Gonzalez said Shire would be reluctant to open its books to AbbVie in the absence of an increased offer because, under UK takeover rules, it would then be obliged to do the same for any other interested parties.
Analysts have speculated that rival US bidders could emerge, attracted by the prospect of using Shire as a vehicle to shelter offshore cash from high US corporate tax rates – a manoeuvre known as a tax inversion.
The investor who met Mr Gonzalez said it was unclear whether AbbVie was categorically ruling out a higher bid in the absence of talks or simply trying to manage market expectations and increase pressure on Shire.
Mr Gonzalez told investors that Shire’s forecast of doubling annual revenues to $10bn by 2020 was too vague.
He added that he had met Susan Kilsby, Shire chairman, in Geneva for one hour after the company made its first informal offer of £39.50 a share in early May. Shire’s board rejected a second offer at £40.97 on May 20 without a meeting between the two sides.
After making a third offer worth £46.26 a share, Mr Gonzalez met for nearly two hours with Ms Kilsby in Paris. A few hours later, Mr Gonzalez was told the third offer had been rejected. AbbVie declined to comment.
The US company’s latest offer represents a 23 per cent premium over Shire’s share price the day before its interest became public. However, AbbVie highlighted the 58 per cent premium over the price in mid-April, before news of Pfizer’s interest in AstraZeneca caused takeover speculation surrounding Shire to intensify.
Analysts and bankers have predicted that AbbVie will increase its offer, while people close to the company have said that it would “remain disciplined” on price. AbbVie has not ruled out going hostile with its approach.

>>> Closing Commodities: Copper And Dollar Index Close At HoD, Crude At LoD

Closing Commodities: Copper And Dollar Index Close At HoD, Crude At LoD
* Energy continued to trade in negative territory in afternoon actionCrude oil ended today's session near its LoD
* Aug crude finished $0.88 lower at $104.48/barrel
* Natural gas also remained in the red and closed just above its HoD, ending 10 cents lower at $4.36/MMBtu
* Gold and silver gave up some of their gains, but still ended the session higher
* Aug gold rose $5.40 to $1331/oz, while Sept silver advanced $0.20 to $21.31/oz.
* Copper futures held gains and closed at its HoD, finishing 7 cents higher at $3.27/lb.

WSJ : Iran Central Banker Akbar Komijani Seeks Economic Turnaround

Iran Central Banker Akbar Komijani Seeks Economic Turnaround
Bank Markazi Deputy, Team of Advisers to President Rouhani Aim to Rebuild Economy Amid Sanctions

TEHRAN—The man tasked with engineering the recovery of Iran's economy must do so from atop a central bank that is incapable of conducting financial transactions with most foreign governments and companies.

Akbar Komijani is deputy governor of Bank Markazi, Iran's central bank, an institution the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned in 2012 for allegedly aiding Iran's nuclear program.

Called out of academia last year by the newly elected President Hasan Rouhani, Mr. Komijani says he was shocked by the state of the government's finances, which had deteriorated dramatically during former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's tenure.

"The sanctions were a catalyzer that exposed many other problems in our economy," said Mr. Komijani in an interview at Bank Markazi's gleaming Tehran office tower, which looks up at the snow-capped peaks of the Alborz Mountains. "By July 2011, the sanctions really started to have an impact."

Mr. Komijani was named to oversee operations at Bank Markazi last August by President Rouhani, who has set out with a group of advisers to rebuild Iran's economy amid sanctions and after the policies of President Ahmadinejad.

The firebrand former president, famous for his threats against Israel and anti-Western vitriol, made huge financial commitments to public housing and poverty-alleviation programs at the same time international sanctions were drastically constricting Tehran's ability to sell oil.

The sanctions the Obama administration placed on Bank Markazi blocked the institution from conducting financial transactions with virtually any foreign bank and drastically cut Tehran's ability to repatriate most oil revenues. The central bank was also kicked out of the electronic banking system, known as the Swift network, which manages most international financial transactions from its offices in Belgium.

Mr. Komijani, who had earned his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin in 1983, had served in senior posts at Bank Markazi during the presidency of the reformist cleric, Mohammad Khatami, which ended in 2005. But like many of that president's aides, Mr. Komijani was purged for ideological and political reasons after the hard-line President Ahmadinejad took office. The economist took up a position teaching at the University of Tehran.

When he was brought back by Mr. Rouhani, the deputy governor and other members of the economic team responded by cutting many of Mr. Ahmadinejad's programs and sharply raising interest rates in an effort to shore up the rial and tame inflation. Mr. Rouhani's government also began attempting to reclaim what are estimated to be tens of billions of dollars in funds that disappeared from the government's books during Mr. Ahmadinejad's tenure, some as a result of rampant oil smuggling that took place as Western sanctions increased, according to Iranian officials.

Tehran police in December arrested prominent local businessman Babak Zanjani on charges he had stashed nearly $3 billion in Tehran's oil profits in overseas accounts. He has denied the charges, but the case lifted the veil on the alleged looting of Iran's financial system. A second Iranian businessman, Mahafarid Amir Khosravi, was executed in May following a fraud conviction involving more than a billion dollars in state funds.

Mr. Komijani says significant progress has been made in stabilizing Iran's economy. Month-on-month inflation that was running at above 45% last June by Iran's measure has been brought down below 20%. And Iran's government is projecting economic growth for the fiscal year ending March 2015 after successive years of sharp contractions.

Even so, Mr. Komijani acknowledges Tehran's finances will remain choked by the layers of U.S., European and United Nations sanctions that have resulted in as much as $150 billion of Iran's oil revenues being frozen in overseas accounts.

He says Iran's economy could grow much faster, by as much as 6%, if Iran reaches an agreement with the U.S. and other world powers this summer over the future of Tehran's nuclear program.

"If the negotiating process is speeded up, the country can have access to increased oil revenues and better access to overseas assets," Mr. Komijani said. "We will have the opportunity to import the necessary inputs for our industrial capacity."

The central banker has received high marks from Iran's business community for his efforts to restore economic stability in Tehran. The deputy governor regularly meets with foreign investors and businessmen interested in entering the Iranian market.

"Komijani is a key player in the Iranian recovery," said Reza Soltanzadeh, chief executive officer of Iran Industries Investment Co., a Tehran-based conglomerate and finance company. "The Iranian brand was destroyed."