>>> Mattel misses by $0.01, misses on revs

Mattel misses by $0.01, misses on revs (30.54)
Reports Q3 (Sep) adjusted earnings of $1.01 per share, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.02; revenues fell 8.4% year/year to $2.02 bln vs the $2.18 bln consensus.
  • Co reported 2014 third quarter financial results. For the quarter, the Company reported net income of $331.8 million, or $0.97 per share, which includes a negative impact of $0.05 per share from MEGA Brands integration costs and a tax benefit of $0.04 per share, compared to last year's third quarter net income of $422.8 million, or $1.21 per share, which included a tax benefit of $0.05 per share.
  • Worldwide gross sales by core brands: Barbie down 21%; Hot Wheels up 5%; Fisher-Price down 16% and American Girl down 7%.
  • Gross margin decreased 330 basis points of net sales, partially due to the acquisition of MEGA Brands.

>>> Danaher reports Q3 EPS in-line with upside preannouncement; guides Q4 EPS, i

Danaher reports Q3 EPS in-line with upside preannouncement; guides Q4 EPS, including items

Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.90 per share, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.89; revenues rose 4.3% year/year to $4.87 bln vs the $4.89 bln consensus.
  • Co raised Q3 EPS guidance to $0.90 from $0.86-0.89 on Monday, Oct 13 when it announced it will spin/merge its Communications business with NTCT.
Co issues guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $1.00-1.04, may not be comparable to $1.04 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Included in this range is ~$125 million, or ~$0.13 per diluted share, of anticipated productivity charges that are partially offset by an ~$0.07 per diluted share anticipated gain on the sale of marketable securities.

(BofA-ML) The Crash, The Capitualtion, the 3P's & The Trades

>>> The Crash
Since Sept highs global stock market cap off $4.85 trillion. S&P500 peaked roughly 8 minutes after 9/19 Alibaba IPO launch. Crash driven by end of QE, “growth shock” (Chart 1) & big position unwinds in energy, merger arbitrage & Europe.

>>> The Capitulation
Cash, flows, volatility, climactic selling of winners = short-term trading low for risk assets. BofAML Breadth Rule trading “buy signal” was triggered intra-day. Note rally in “meltdown leaders”…small cap energy stocks up 8% from lows after 40% sell-off in 7 weeks.

>>> The 3P’s
Classic cyclical lows triggered by Positioning, Profits & Policy. An October low requires EPS resilience and/or US consumer data that cause rates to rise. Global policy coordination and/or German ECB panic also required for investors to reduce
cash. In contrast, bear market risk comes from an LTCM-event and/or policy conflict (the End of QE = Start of a Currency War).

>>> The Trades
Investor conviction is low. Nonetheless, the contrarian should soon buy Pain, and sell Pleasure. Our Oct’14 FMS shows that the assets most vulnerable to a trading rally are EM, commodities, resources, small-cap and European cyclicals. Absent a
recession, the USD, real estate and stocks over bonds remain our favored asset allocation for 2014/2015.