PBoC academic adviser Chen Yulu: China hasn't reached point to cut interest rates
- Xinhua China should maintain its prudent monetary policy
- China should maintain M2 growth of 13%
In a webcast Tuesday, I explained why I thought the Federal Reserve would stick with, but qualify, an important phrase in its policy statement Wednesday which assures near-zero interest rates for a “considerable time.” This was simply my best analysis of where I think the Fed is going based on what we have been reporting and what officials have said in the past....Here’s my analysis: Janet Yellen is a methodical individual and the Fed, in normal times, is a slow-moving institution. It takes time for debates to play out. Ms. Yellen is seeking consensus, as we reported earlier this week. The considerable time debate doesn’t feel ripened or fully aired. When Ms. Yellen has used the phrase in recent months she has qualified it, but not suggested changing it. Meantime the Fed has other business on its plate. The exit plan has been in the works for months, as has the plan to end bond buying. Changing the “considerable time” guidance now, while also announcing an exit plan, could be viewed by market participants as a surprising move toward raising rates.Fed officials haven’t forgotten last year’s “taper tantrum,” when long-term interest rates shot up as they commenced discussions about winding down the bond program.We reported earlier this week that Ms. Yellen, as Fed chairwoman, hasn’t behaved as the easy-money policy “dove” that many market participants expected. That doesn’t mean she’s suddenly a hawk. It just means she’s not a dove.Ms. Yellen’s most logical next step, to my mind, would be to stick for the time being to what she’s been saying, which is that rates will stay low for a “considerable time” with the strong qualification that this could change if the job market keeps improving quickly. Staying on message this month could entail signaling an end to the bond program and a more formal exit strategy. The Fed would then have time to air out a change in the “considerable time” formulation for a later date, giving Ms. Yellen time to get all of her colleagues on board.
Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: AUXL +41.4%, NSPR +19%, CTIC +12%, YRCW +9.6%, YRCW +9.6%, AKS +7.4%, PERI +7.3%, APOG +6.8%, LEN +5.3%, ENDP +4.3%, PT +4%, DD +3.6%, SLXP +1.4%, MT +1.4%, SDRL +1.3%, NVAX +1.1%, CLF +0.9%, BA +0.8%
Gapping down: RAX -18.1%, SNE -10.6%, PETX -8.8%, RTRX -7.5%, PDLI -5.7%, ADBE -4.6%, GIS -4.5%, SXL -4.3%, SSLT -2.5%, AT -2.3%, UN -1.6%, WYNN -1%, RIO -0.7%, BHP -0.5%