>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of January 2015

>>> Up
*TRYG RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG
*UBS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT ODDO
*UBS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SHANKS RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*VESTAS WIND RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS

>>> Down
*BETFAIR CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*BEZEQ CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*BNP PARIBAS CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*BNP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT ODDO
*BOSKALIS CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT KEMPEN
*CARD FACTORY CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*EURONEXT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*JULIUS BAER CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*JULIUS BAER CUT TO REDUCE VS BUY AT ODDO
*LVMH CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*PADDY POWER CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*SANOFI CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation


>>> Call
>> Sector
*GLOBAL CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR UPPED TO OVERWEIGHT: CITI
>> Country
*U.K. EQUITIES CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of January 2015

>>> Up
*TRYG RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG
*UBS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SHANKS RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*VESTAS WIND RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS

>>> Down
*BETFAIR CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*BEZEQ CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*BNP PARIBAS CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*BOSKALIS CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT KEMPEN
*CARD FACTORY CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*EURONEXT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*JULIUS BAER CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*LVMH CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*PADDY POWER CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*SANOFI CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation


>>> Call
>> Sector
*GLOBAL CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR UPPED TO OVERWEIGHT: CITI
>> Country
*U.K. EQUITIES CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> What to look at today - 7th of January 2015

Dow -0,74% S&P -0,89% Nasdaq -1,29% Russell -1,70%
US Market closed lower with Russell leading the move, S&P open higher and traded in positive territory for the first hour but started to sink after The Financial Times reported, citing Oxford Economics research, that Syriza party in Greece is on track to win enough votes that would translate into a mandate to push back against austerity policies imposed by the European Union, US Treasuries was under pressure, 10-yr yield lower by seven basis points to 1.96% after marking a low just under the 1.89% level. crude oil continued its sharp down trend (traded down to $47,17 - 47.24 now) while fund manager Bill Gross of Janus Capital published his investment outlook for 2015, which revealed that Mr. Gross expects negative returns from ‘many' asset classes. This disclosure wasn't entirely new, considering Mr. Gross was quoted by Reuters yesterday as saying "Be prepared for low returns in almost all asset categories." ...S&P 500 was able to reclaim about a third of its decline during afternoon action with countercyclical sectors lending some support. Consumer staples (unch) and health care (-0.3%) outperformed while the two smallest sectors by weight—telecom services (+0.4%) and utilities (+0.1%)—spent the bulk of the session in positive territory...volume were above average with 915mil shares....VIX @ 21,12 +6,02%...US After Hours ...TWTR - Icahn said didn't bought shares, JCP +19.1%, SONC +4.1%, LIQT -40.2%, MU -4.8% following earnings/guidance...In China, a local press report noted iron ore inventories fell for the 6th straight week and now sit at a 6-month low. This is in line with overnight trade data out of Australia that showed iron ore shipments rise 25% m/m. Economists with Standard Chartered speculated Dec CPI would hit fresh multi-year lows of 1.2% after falling to a 5-year low of 1.4% in November.
Nikkei +0.01% Hang Seng +0.38% Shanghai +0.28%

RUB $63.60 RUB €75.52 WTI $47.24 BRENT $50.32

Eur$ 1.1866 S&P +0.34% EuroStoxx +0.4% Dax +0.35% SMI +0.18%

Macro :
- CPI to be published today @ 11...particularly crucial if it falls into the negative for the first time in 5-years, bolstering expectations of a more aggressive policy response from the ECB
- Japan, France Considering Defense Industry Deal, Nikkei Says
- Syriza Not a Euro Threat, Seeks Debt Relief: Tsipras in Corriere
- Merkel Adviser Warns ECB on QE Plans Before Greek Election: FAZ

Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : 3G Capital Said to Have $5b of Pledges to Buy Companies: WSJ
- AFR LN : Afren boosted by counterbid hopes - Telegraph
- AIR FP : Airbus Won More Aircraft Orders Than Boeing in 2014: Reuters
- ALV GY : Allianz Seeks German Corporate Clients Gains: Boersen-Zeitung
- BNP FP : Some BNP Retail Clients Affected by Computer Bug, Echos Says
- BVI FP : Bureau Veritas Acquires 70% of Shandong Chengxin
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse U.K. May Move Some Ops to Dublin: Irish Times
- DL NA : Old Mutual Holds 3.22% Stake in Delta Lloyd, AFM Filing Shows
- EDF FP : French Energy Regulator Says ERDF, GRDF Must Change Logos
- FCA IM : Fiat Chrysler may do more deals after Ferrari spinoff, to reduce or eliminate their stake in Fiat Chrysler
- NOBN VX : Nobel Biocare Says Tullio Di Dio to Succeed CFO Olivier Walker
- PTC PL : PT Portugal EUR 7.4bn acquisition from Oi by Altice faces delays with PT Corruption probe
- RB/ LN : Reckitt-Benckiser sells Maison Verte, O'Cedar and Baranne assets to Milestone Investisseurs (PE)
- RNO FP : Nissan Sees Global Car Demand Growing 2%-3% in 2015, CEO Says
- RIGN VX : Transocean May Be Cut to Junk by Moody’s
- RYA LN : Ryanair Seeks as Much as 20% German Market Share: Handelsblatt
- SAP GY : likely to preannounce 4Q as early as Jan. 9 according to JPM
- SREN VX : Swiss Re Seeking to Sell Its 15% Stake in Brevan Howard: WSJ
- TKA GY : ThyssenKrupp could participate in Europe steel sector consolidation
- DG FP : France Likely to Sign Highway Accord by Jan 15, Les Echos Says

(BFW) Merkel Adviser Warns ECB on QE Plans Before Greek Election: FAZ


Merkel Adviser Warns ECB on QE Plans Before Greek Election: FAZ
2015-01-07 06:49:39.768 GMT


By Nicholas Comfort
(Bloomberg) -- ECB to damage reputation if it announces
plan to buy sovereign bonds which includes Greek debt before
elections in that country this month, Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung cites Lars Feld, economic adviser to German Chancellor
Angela Merkel, as saying in interview.
* While ECB council meeting on tomorrow isn’t scheduled to
officially discuss bond purchases, council members may
discuss matter at dinner today: FAZ cites unidentified
people close to the ECB as saying
* NOTE: Euro-Area Prices Seen Falling as Risk of Deflation
Spiral Mounts


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To contact the reporter on this story:
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ncomfort1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Elisa Martinuzzi at +39-02-8064-4218 or
emartinuzzi@bloomberg.net

>>> PT Portugal EUR 7.4bn acquisition from Oi by Altice faces delays with Portug

PT Portugal EUR 7.4bn acquisition from Oi by Altice faces delays with Portugal Telecom corruption probe - reports
Portugal Telecom (PT) is likely to put back a 12 January shareholders' meeting to vote on the sale of PT Portugal by Oi to Altice because of a police investigation, reported Diario Economico. Sources familiar with the situation told the Lusophone daily that Menezes Cordeiro, chairman of the PT AGM, is in contract with investors to delay next week's meeting scheduled to vote on the sale of PT Portugal for EUR 7.4bn.

PT's Lisbon headquarters have been raided by police as part of an investigation into alleged fraud centred on the group's relations with the former Espirito Santo Group. The investigation was ordered by the CMVM Portuguese Securities Commission. In 2014, PT bought around EUR 900m debt from Rioforte, part of the collapsed Espirito Santo business group.

PT was reportedly mulling a 20% stake in Altice's vehicle to acquire PT Portugal, the Portuguese operations of the merged PT-Oi. Jornal de Negocios reported that the police investigation into PT is also aimed to recover a PwC audit on the group, which contains full details of the defaulted Rioforte debt transaction.

Diario Economico, Jornal de Negocios

>>> ThyssenKrupp could participate in Europe steel sector consolidation

ThyssenKrupp could participate in Europe steel sector consolidation
ThyssenKrupp, the listed German technology and steel company, may take part in European steel industry consolidation if such a process gets under way, Boersen-Zeitung reported.

The German-language daily cited Andreas Goss, chief executive of ThyssenKrupp Steel Europe, as saying that ThyssenKrupp would participate from a position of strength in a potential consolidation wave in the market.

The Steel Europe unit represents turnover of EUR 8.9bn, or a fifth of the group's overall sales, the report said.

The article noted that recently, ThyssenKrupp CEO Heinrich Hiesinger stressed that ThyssenKrupp will continue as a diversified group within which steelmaking will have a place. However, he was also cited as saying that tradition alone does not afford protection in the competition of the future. He predicted that there might be a consolidation push in the German steel sector, possibly in three to five years.

ThyssenKrupp recently sold its American steelmaking business, with a EUR 2.1bn turnover, the report noted.

Boersen-Zeitung

Telegraph : Afren boosted by counterbid hopes

Afren boosted by counterbid hopes

Speculation the takeover target will receive a second approach buoyed shares in the explorer
Takeover target Afren drew attention on a day that saw plenty of action for oil shares.


The Africa-focused oil explorer surged in the run-up to Christmas on news that London-listed Nigerian rival Seplat, 11.375p lower at 128.625p, had made a preliminary bid approach. The predator has until January 19 to make a firm offer or withdraw under UK takeover rules, although on Tuesday there was speculation there may be developments well before then.


Shares in Afren surged as much as 1.7p, or 4pc, to a session high of 44.22p as rumours spread through dealing rooms that South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPetro) was eyeing a counterbid.


SAPetro, which was founded by former Nigerian defence minister General Theophilus Danjuma, has already shown an interest in Afren. The group acquired a 7.05pc shareholding in the explorer in the autumn, stakebuilding that at the time also spurred chatter among traders that it could be interested in bidding for Afren. Shares in the takeover target closed 0.73p cheaper at 41.79p.

WSJ : Stake in Hedge-Fund Firm Brevan Howard Is for Sale

Stake in Hedge-Fund Firm Brevan Howard Is for Sale
Its Flagship Fund Ends Streak of Yearly Gains

A piece of one of Europe’s largest hedge-fund firms is on the block.

Zurich reinsurer Swiss Re is looking to sell its minority stake in Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, which manages more than $30 billion in several hedge funds, according to people familiar with the talks. The effort comes as Brevan Howard grapples with recent poor performance and billions in investor outflows.

Bids for the 15% stake, which is being pitched to several potential buyers, were due last week, the people said. It wasn’t clear who the possible bidders were.

The investment has been profitable for Swiss Re given Brevan Howard’s swift growth since the reinsurer bought into the hedge fund in 2007, said a person familiar with the matter.

People involved in the process pegged the current value of the stake at anywhere from $350 million to $500 million. Swiss Re didn’t disclose what it paid for Brevan Howard, which is based in the Channel Island of Jersey.

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Swiss Re is seeking to boost investment in other areas, the person said.

The potential sale adds to a spate of deal activity in the hedge-fund industry. As banks, traditional buyers of minority stakes in hedge funds, have stepped back from such assets to comply with stricter rules on managing capital and risk, investment firms have stepped into the void, raising billions of dollars in recent years to buy minority stakes in hedge funds or using their balance sheets to fund such deals.

There is no guarantee there will be a buyer, or that the stake will receive as high a price as the suggested range.

Swiss bank UBS AG is running the sale. The new owner of the stake would share in the firm’s profits.

Co-founded by Alan Howard , a former trader for Credit Suisse who left in 2002 with others to start the firm, Brevan Howard is a so-called macro fund, which seeks to anticipate trends in global markets such as interest rates or currencies. Its assets climbed from $12.5 billion in assets under management at the start of 2007 to $40 billion at the end of 2013. Recent struggles have helped reduce the company’s assets.

The attempted sale comes during a tough period for Brevan Howard, which has stumbled recently amid broader challenges for macro funds. The Brevan Howard Master Fund, the firm’s $24 billion flagship fund run by Mr. Howard, lost about 0.8% last year—its first loss since it was founded in 2003. That followed a 2.7% return in 2013, compared with a 0.4% loss on average by similar funds, according to research firm HFR.

The fund’s average annualized return is about 10% since its inception, compared with around 5.7% for macro funds on average for about the same period.

Other Brevan Howard funds have struggled, too. The firm is in the process of winding down its $630 million commodity hedge fund after recent poor performance. The firm also closed its currency and emerging-markets funds last year.

Meanwhile, Brevan Howard has been engaged in a legal tussle with co-founder and former star trader Chris Rokos, who left the firm in 2012 and is contesting a noncompete restriction with the hedge fund.

A person familiar with Brevan Howard said inflows from institutional investors have offset some of the recent redemptions and that other factors, such as a recent deal to shift more than $4 billion in assets to another investment firm, played a role in shrinking how much money the firm manages.

Swiss Re acquired the stake amid a wave of similar deals before the financial crisis as firms and banks sought to capitalize on the rapidly growing hedge-fund industry.

After a retrenchment brought on by the crisis, the industry has grown well beyond its 2007 peak in terms of assets under management. Yet many funds have struggled to meet investors’ expectations of performance amid bull markets. Last year was one of the worst for hedge-fund performance since 2008.

Still, buyers remain interested in acquiring stakes, saying that they can create a steady revenue stream—of particular appeal in a low-interest rate environment—and that diversified portfolios of such stakes can provide returns that are little correlated to the markets.

Veteran deal makers say selling stakes on the secondary market is often more complicated than direct-stake sales, when the hedge fund itself is selling a piece of its management company to a buyer. That is partly because more parties are involved and because their interests may not align as closely.

In one such situation last year, the estate of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. wasn’t able to complete a deal to sell its 20% stake in the D.E. Shaw Group. Boston-based Affiliated Managers Group Inc. had been nearing an agreement to buy the stake for more than $500 million in a deal that would have valued D.E. Shaw at more than $2 billion. But the deal, run by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., stalled as AMG sought to expand the terms beyond what Lehman had negotiated, according to a person familiar with the process.

The eventual buyer was expected to assume the terms Lehman had negotiated for the stake in 2007.

>>> Fiat Chrysler may do more deals after Ferrari spinoff

Fiat Chrysler may do more deals after Ferrari spinoff - Newswire Round-up

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (NYSE:FCAU) is far from finished on the M&A front, according to a newswire report.

Bloomberg noted that Sergio Marchionne, the executive behind the Fiat merger with its US Chrysler unit, said that the market is still ripe for consolidation. According to the report, the company's recently completed spinoff of Ferrari puts the firm in a position to pursue additional deals.

Via the Ferrari spinoff, the report noted that Fiat was able to lower its debt. Additionally, the company wants to ensure that any future transaction allows the Agnelli family, Fiat Chrysler's largest shareholder, to retain control over Ferrari.

Although the family wishes to maintain this stake, they would probably be "open to strategic combinations that will reduce, or eliminate, their stake" in Fiat Chrysler, noted an analyst cited in the report.

In the past, Marchionne has mentioned Volkswagen AG, Ford Motor Co. and General Motors as logical partners. Mazda Motor Corp. and Suzuki Motor Corp. would also make sense, according to analysts, the report noted

(BFW) Syriza Not a Euro Threat, Seeks Debt Relief: Tsipras in Corriere


Syriza Not a Euro Threat, Seeks Debt Relief: Tsipras in Corriere
2015-01-07 06:32:50.496 GMT


By Jerrold Colten
(Bloomberg) -- Greek opposition party should be seen as
pushing for change, Tsipras writes in Corriere della Sera.
* Fears of Greek euro exit stoked by German politicians, some
European media: Tsipras in Corriere
* Syriza doesn’t want the euro to fail, wants to save the
currency: Tsipras in Corriere
* Party and European allies seek debt relief through
cancellation of nominal value of public debt, moratorium
plan: Tsipras in Corriere


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Dan Liefgreen