>>>BASF-Time to come back on the stock - 74 first target, Stock Should OP Dax

BASF - Stock is down 21% from highs in June 2014 -12% sinc July...

Trading conditions were tougher in Q314 as mentionned by the CEO - July was solid but September started much slower than expected by management. Geopolitiacl env. was a reason for that...Some investors offset thane USD move can become supportive int he coming months and I really think that momentum will change with a more difficult environment for Industrials...we still interesting signals of continuing growth in Asia...volume were goods but MArgins were still the issue but this will be better for big player like BASF....Russian normalisation shoudl a big catalyst for the stock as teh company is involved in Gas Field operations, BASF has governemnt garanty for these investments....Agro business should start t o normalize and should not be an issue anymore...Capex should not revise for now, should continue to benefit fo shale gas advantage in the US...only concern in the US is skyrocketing investments costs that could jeopardize the raw material cost advantage.

I will buy the stock relative to teh mkt to play a decent OP, I see the stock coming back quickly on the 74 levels.

BASF undeperform DAX by 14 since June, I see at least a 6% OP in the next few days/weeks

Reuters - High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-Oct, scientists calcu

(Reuters) - Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict a 75 percent chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24, and a 50 percent chance it could hit Britain by that date.

Those numbers are based on air traffic remaining at full capacity. Assuming an 80 percent reduction in travel to reflect that many airlines are halting flights to affected regions, France's risk is still 25 percent, and Britain's is 15 percent.

"It's really a lottery," said Derek Gatherer of Britain's Lancaster University, an expert in viruses who has been tracking the epidemic - the worst Ebola outbreak in history.

The deadly epidemic has killed more than 3,400 people since it began in West Africa in March and has now started to spread faster, infecting almost 7,200 people so far. Nigeria, Senegal and now the United States - where the first case was diagnosed on Tuesday in a man who flew in from Liberia - have all seen people carrying the Ebola haemorrhagic fever virus, apparently unwittingly, arrive on their shores.

France is among countries most likely to be hit next because the worst affected countries - Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - include French speakers and have busy travel routes back, while Britain's Heathrow airport is one of the world's biggest travel hubs.

France and Britain have each treated one national who was brought home with the disease and then cured. The scientists' study suggests that more may bring it to Europe not knowing they are infected.

"If this thing continues to rage on in West Africa and indeed gets worse, as some people have predicted, then it's only a matter of time before one of these cases ends up on a plane to Europe," said Gatherer.

Belgium has a 40 percent chance of seeing the disease arrive on its territory, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks of 14 percent each, according to the study first published in the journal PLoS Current Outbreaks and now being regularly updated at www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has not placed any restrictions on travel and has encouraged airlines to keep flying to the worst-hit countries. British Airways and Emirates airlines have suspended some flights

But the risks change every day the epidemic continues, said Alex Vespignani, a professor at the Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems at Northeastern University in Boston who led the research.

"This is not a deterministic list, it's about probabilities - but those probabilities are growing for everyone," Vespignani said in a telephone interview. "It's just a matter of who gets lucky and who gets unlucky."

The latest calculations used data from October 1.

"Air traffic is the driver," Vespignani said. "But there are also differences in connections with the affected countries (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone), as well as different numbers of cases in these three countries - so depending on that, the probability numbers change."

PATIENTS UNAWARE

Patients are at their most contagious when Ebola is in its terminal stages, inducing both internal and external bleeding, and profuse vomiting and diarrhoea - all of which contain high concentrations of infectious virus.

But the disease can also have a long incubation period of up to 21 days, meaning that people can be unaware for weeks that they are infected, and not feel or display any symptoms.

This, it seems, is what allowed the Liberian visitor Thomas Eric Duncanto to fly to the United States and spend several days there unaware that he was carrying the deadly virus, before being diagnosed and isolated.

In the European Union, free movement of people means someone unknowingly infected with Ebola could easily drive through several neighbouring countries before feeling ill and seeking help, and spend weeks in contact with friends or strangers before becoming sick enough to show up on airport scanners.

Jonathan Ball, a professor of molecular virology at Britain's Nottingham University said that even with exit screening at airports of affected countries, the long, silent incubation period meant "cases can slip through the net".

"Whilst the risk of imported Ebola virus remains small, it's still a very real risk, and one that won't go away until this outbreak is stopped," he said. "Ebola virus isn't just an African problem."

However, the chance of the disease spreading widely or developing into an epidemic in a wealthy, developed country is extremely low, healthcare specialists say.

According to the latest Ebola risk assessment from the European Centres of Disease Prevention and Control, which monitors health and disease in the region, "the capacity to detect and confirm cases...is considered to be sufficient to interrupt any possible local transmission of the disease early."

Gatherer cited Nigeria as an example of how Ebola can be halted with swift and detailed action.

Despite being in West Africa and being home to one of the world's most crowded, chaotic cities, Nigeria has managed to contain Ebola's spread to a total of 20 cases and 8 deaths, and looks likely to be declared free of the virus in coming weeks.

"Even if we have a worse case scenario where someone doesn't present for medical treatment, or..it's not correctly identified as Ebola, and we get secondary transmission, it's not likely to be a very long secondary transmission chain," he said.

"People aren't living in very crowded conditions (in Europe), so the disease doesn't have the same environment it has in a shanty town in Monrovia, where the environment is perfect for it to spread. It's a different matter in modern western cities with the very sanitised, sterile lives that we live."

>>> Hewlett-Packardon Separation Conference Call --> HPQ +5.25% pre open

Hewlett-Packardon Separation Conference Call- Capital return to be weighted toward share repruchases

  • Co says capital return will be weighted toward share repurchasing and high dividends; says sum of dividend payments will be equal to what HPQ pays today... transaction will be tax free.
  • expect 2015 charge linked to prior announced headcount reduction.
  • expect one-time GAAP only charges related to separation, including upcoming Q4.
  • Continue to have material non-public information that will not be finished until Q4 and keep the co from doing repurchases at the moment.
  • Says at next opportunity it will announce a repurchase plan that will make up for the current shortfall.
  • Expect revenue flat y/y; expect 2 point currency headwind to as reported revenue.
  • Says hardware environment remains tough on pricing.
  • Expect margins to increase y/y

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: EZCH -6.4%, .

M&A news: HRB -6.1% (announced that the regulatory approval process regarding its purchase and assumption agreement with BofI Federal (BOFI) will not be complete this calendar year).

Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TOT -0.9%, STO -0.8%, RDS.A -0.4%.

Other news: SNSS -62.7% (announces results from pivotal Phase 3 VALOR trial of Vosaroxin and Cytarabine; trial does not reach primary endpoint), ADHD -43.3% (announces topline results from Phase III study of MDX in adult ADHD), EMITF -5.7% (announces that InSightec received HCSC positive coverage decision for its ExAblate procedure for pain palliation of bone cancer metastases),RSH -5.1% (agrees to restructure a portion of its existing debt, providing additional near-term liquidity), MU -1.2% (still checking).

Analyst comments: TKMR -7.2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Leerink Partners), FTNT -2.3% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), QLIK -2.1% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), PTCT -1.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Cowen), CL -1.3% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays), MBLY -0.8% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), DECK -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), BWLD -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush), MCD -0.6% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley).

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SMIT +4.6%, PEG +1.4%, .

M&A news: CFN +25.6% (to be acquired by Becton Dickinson (BDX) for $58 per share), BDX +9.8% (acquiring CFN), CONN +7.8% (to explore strategic alternatives), HPQ +6.3% (will separate into two public companies).

Select Brazil related names showing strength following elections over the weekend: ITUB +8.6%, BBD +8%, CIG +5.8%, GFA +5.7%, HL +4.1%, ABEV +2.1%, SAN +1.8%

Select Casino stocks trading higher: MGM +2.8%, LVS +2.4%, WYNN +1.8%

Select Ebola related names showing strength: NLNK +3.9%, LAKE +3.4%, SIGA +0.7%, INO +0.3%

Other news: QTWW +33.9% (Linde to build and operate its first retail hydrogen fueling station in the U.S; QTWW to supply the dispensing system), PBR +18.2% (exec fuel price increase request; also Brazil elections may be having an impact), IGLD +10.5% (Golden Lines intends to initiate a private placement for institutional and qualified investors of its Series D Debentures that will be exchanged for Series C Debentures), MZOR +7.4% (reports sale of five Renaissance Systems during Q3), PSTI +6.4% (still checking), MHR +5.2% (will obtain two new credit facilities and refinance its existing revolving credit facility, also favorable mention on Friday's Mad Money), TASR +2.9% (Dallas Police Department orders 2,250 TASER X26P smart weapons), EXXI +2.8% (Hayman Capital discloses 5.08% passive stake in 13G filing), CDE +2.4% (discovers high-grade mineralization at Kensington; drilling activity in Jualin Veins 4 and 5 has encountered several multi-ounce gold intercepts), BBRY +2.2% (still checking), KNDI +2% (still checking), LINTA +1.3% (Interactive announces reattribution of digital commerce businesses and dividend on Liberty Interactive Tracking Stock),BHP +0.9% (presents cost reductions and capital efficient growth plans at WAIO), ZMH +0.9% (CFN peer)

Analyst comments: ISRG +3.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), SKYW +3.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James), SPLK +2.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), DATA +2.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), GPRO +2.5% (target raised to $105 from $60 at JMP Securities), LGCY +1.3% (upgraded to at ), BKW +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), COP +0.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS)

( B.Riley&Co.) RadioShack financial agreement, likely bankruptcy filing after Xm

RadioShack announced it had stuck an agreement with Standard General and others to replace its existing ABL facility and receive $120 mln in cash to collateralize letters of credit; maintain Sell
B. Riley & Co. notes, RSH stuck an agreement with Standard General and others to replace its existing ABL facility and receive $120 mln in cash to collateralize letters of credit. Although this frees up some borrowing availability and should help liquidity optics for holiday inventory build, there didn't seem to be any assurances that vendors were supportive. Furthermore, Salus Capital does not seem to have budged on covenants, which means widespread store closings are still not permitted. Given the magnitude of ongoing losses, the significant potential dilution, and some of the language in co's release, firm thinks the announced agreement simply pushes a likely bankruptcy filing out until after the holidays.

>>> DRTX To be acquired by Actavis for $23/shr (plus CVRs for up to $5/shr), Tot

To be acquired by Actavis for $23/shr (plus CVRs for up to $5/shr), Total deal value $675M in cash 

- Actavis will commence a tender offer to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Durata common stock for $23.00 per share in cash, or approximately $675 million in the aggregate, and contingent value rights (CVRs) entitling the holder to receive additional cash payments of up to $5.00 per share if certain regulatory or commercial milestones related to Durata's lead product DALVANCETM are achieved. Actavis expects the acquisition to be accretive by the end of the first year.- If DALVANCETM is approved in Europe for ABSSSI, holders of the CVR will receive $1.00 per share. 

If DALVANCETM is approved for single dose administration by the FDA, holders of the CVR will receive $1.00 per share. If a net global DALVANCETM revenue threshold is met over a designated time period, holders of the CVR will receive $3.00 per share.

(Gizmodo) Looks Like Facebook Messenger Is Prepping Friend-to-Friend Payments


Facebook Messenger has a friend-to-friend payment feature in the works, and it's already set up in the app. It's just not turned on for the general public.

The payment feature would let you give and receive money by providing Facebook with debit card information, similar to Square Cash.

Stanford student Andrew Aude uncovered the hidden feature using Cycript, an app exploration tool for developers.

"I first found it a month ago with Jonathan Zdziarski's security research into Facebook Messenger," he told me. Aude went digging after seeing a screenshot from Zdziarski hinting at mobile payments. What he found was a full-fledged app just waiting to be made public.

Facebook recently brought ex-PayPal president David Marcus on board as the head of Messenger, so this makes sense. Aude didn't see PayPal as an option when he played around with the app, but the code he saw mentions PayPal.

The version Aude saw didn't allow for credit cards or bank accounts, and it let you add a pin code for added security. Unlike Venmo, the money-transfer app that will be Facebook's competition, the transactions were private (so no Newsfeed updates when you get that $20 for picking up a friend's concert ticket). Aude told me Facebook can turn the feature on or off on a user-to-user basis, and he suspects some Facebook employees already have access to a live version. He also found a note that indicates payments between multiple parties is coming, though right now the feature only works for a transaction between two people.

Looks Like Facebook Messenger Is Prepping Friend-to-Friend Payments
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Facebook declined to comment when I asked them about this, so there's no official word. There's always a chance Facebook could kill the entire project before it sees the light of day, so don't get too psyched about sending people money along with a Pusheen sticker just yet.