>>> What to look at today - 16th of May 2025

The dollar weakened for a second session while equities slipped, as large market moves earlier in the week driven by the US-China tariff truce moderated. The greenback fell against major currencies, with the yen and Swiss franc among the beneficiaries. The 10-year Treasury yield was slightly lower after declining 10 basis points Thursday, as traders priced in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Australian and New Zealand yields fell. The tepid action signaled caution after a strong week for risk assets following US-China trade talks. Coming into Friday’s session, a gauge of global stocks had advanced for seven days in a row to a level not seen since February when it set a record.
Shares in Taiwan, Australia and South Korea rose, while those in Japan whipsawed and stocks in China fell. US equity futures were flat after the S&P 500 gained 0.4% on Thursday, helped along by defensive dividend-payers that had underperformed in the past month. Meta Platforms Inc. paced losses in Big Tech on Thursday after a news report it was delaying the rollout of a flagship AI model. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. shares fell as much as 6.7% in Hong Kong after quarterly revenue disappointed.  Gains for Treasuries partly reflected economic data showing prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined by the most in five years suggesting companies are absorbing some of the hit from higher tariffs. Separate US data showed growth in retail sales decelerated. Factory production declined for the first time in six months while New York state manufacturing contracted again. And confidence among homebuilders slumped. The market moves reflect a “benign backdrop,” supported by expectations the Fed will cut rates later this year, according to Frances Cheung, rates strategist for Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Limited, speaking on Bloomberg Television. “The Fed would like to have a couple more months of data to give them the green light to cut interest rates,” she said. Elsewhere, Japan’s economy shrank for the first time in a year, illustrating its vulnerability even before sustaining the impact of Trump’s tariff measures. The yen gained 0.2% on Friday to trade around 145 per dollar. Bank of Japan official Toyoaki Nakamura will speak later in the day. Stocks are now trading like last month’s rout never happened. The S&P 500 is about 4% away from an all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 swung from a bear market back into a bull market. The advance is building as economic tensions between the US and China ease and the White House appears to be softening its approach to trade negotiations. Still, there’s little clarity over how the existing levies might impact the US economy or the trajectory the global trade war will take in coming months.
Fed Governor Michael Barr said the economy is on solid ground, but warned tariff-related supply-chain disruptions could lead to lower growth and higher inflation. Recession remains a possibility as tariff fallout continues to buffet global economies, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.  Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees economic growth, clarity around Trump’s tariffs and continued earnings growth driving further stock-market gains through the rest of this year and next. In commodities, oil edged higher Friday after slumping in its previous session as President Donald Trump said the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal regarding Tehran’s nuclear program. Gold fell. US After Hours GLOB -26.8%, DOCS -23.6%, AMAT -5.6%, CAVA -4.3%, TTWO -3% lower on earnings; RKT +5.4% as ValueAct Capital increases stake to 9.9%.

Nikkei -0.07% Hang Seng -0.48% CSI -0.52% Shanghai -0.42% Shenzen +0.47%

Eur$ 1.1207 CNH 7.1970 CNY 7.2002 JPY 145.32 GBP 1.3321 CHF 0.8341 RUB 80.0016 TRY 38.8500 WTI$ 61.84 +0.36% Gold 3,214 -0.79% BTC 104,000 +0.52% ETH 2,585 +1.87%

S&P -0.03% Nasdaq -0.06% EuroStoxx +0.13% FTSE +0.14% Dax +0.18% SMI +0.23%

Macro :
- ECB’s Villeroy Doesn’t Reckon the World Is in a Currency War
- Qatar’s Wealth Fund Plans $500 Billion US Push Over Next Decade
- NFL’s 49ers to Sell Stakes at Record $8.5 Billion Valuation
- France and Spain Want to Impose Age Limits on US Tech Firms
- Trump Touts $200 Billion in UAE Deals in Wrapping Mideast Trip
- Mercuria Builds Massive Aluminum Bet on a Russia Peace Deal
- US Treasury Warns Hong Kong Banks Over Funding Iran Oil Trades
- Trump to Keep 30% China Tariffs Till Late 2025, Analysts Say (1)
- France’s Unemployment Rate Increased to 7.4% in Early 2025
- UK Taxman Could Squeeze More From Richest 1%, Watchdog Says

Keep an eye on :
- AGN NA : Aegon 1Q Adjusted Operating Capital Generation EU267M, Aegon ‘Not a Fan’ of Mandatory UK Pension Investment, CEO Says
- AKZA NA : JSW nears deal to buy 75% stake in Dulux paints maker AkzoNobel India
- BNTX US : CureVac Gets 2nd Positive Decision From EPO in Suit vs BioNTech
- CAVA US : Cava Stockpiles Equipment So It Can Keep on Building -- WSJ
- CAVA US : Cava Group 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates *CAVA GROUP FALLS 5% POSTMARKET AFTER RESULTS
- SRZ US : *CONSTELLATION BRANDS GAINS 2% AS BERKSHIRE REPORTS 6.6% STAKE
- CLIMEB SS :Climeon Offers SEK30 million Shares via Vator Securities Climeon Offering of 6.96m Shares Prices at SEK4.31/Share
- CRWV US : Nvidia Reports 7% Stake in CoreWeave in Regulatory Filing
- EDP PL : EDP Signs Asset Rotation of Wind Portfolio in France, Belgium
- ENGI FP : Engie to Sell Stake in Battery Storage Assets in US to CBRE
- ENI IM : ENI to Start Up to €1.5 Billion Buyback Program
- EPEN SS : Ependion Offers SEK300 million Shares via Danske Bank Ependion Offering of 2.9m Shares Prices at SEK103/Share
- ETL FP : Eutelsat 3Q Like-for-Like Sales -1.9%
- FI US : Fiserv Sinks as Clover Growth Comments Disappoint: Street Wrap
- GFC FP : Gecina Agrees to Buy Paris Office Complex for €435M
- HELN SW :Helvetia Board of Directors Approves Merger of Spanish Units
- INCY US : Incyte Gets FDA Zynyz Approval to Treat Advanced Anal Cancer
- INGA NA : ING’s Bester Sees Bank Participating in Sector Consolidation
- ISB IR : Iceland Set to Exit Islandsbanki Stake in Upsized Share Sale (1)
- LAND LN : Land Sec. FY Net Rental Income Meets Estimates
- LDO IM : Europe’s Big Defense Deals Will Find a Way, Leonardo CEO Says
- META US : ByteDance Aims to Match Meta Sales in 2025 as TikTok Gains Steam
- META US : Meta Drops as Report Says ‘Behemoth’ AI Model Release Delayed
- B4B GY : Metro AG 2Q Revenue EU7.06B
- NWOR LN : EMH Does Not Intend to Make an Offer for National World
- 7201 JP : Nissan Doesn’t Need a Savior to Get Back on Track, CEO Says
- NP3 SS ; NP3 Fastigheter Offers 12m Preferred Shares NP3 Fastigheter Offering Prices at SEK28.75/Preferred Share
- NVDA US : Nvidia Seeks to Build Research Center in Shanghai: FT
- PIRC IM : Pirelli Says Proposals to Sinochem Were in Interest of Company
- PRX NA : Despegar Says Prosus Completed Its Acquisition at $19.5/Share
- RAN AI : Chipmaking Startup Rain AI Explores Sale: NYP
- REGN US : Regeneron Gets About $400m in Damages in Amgen Antitrust Lawsuit
- CFR SW : Richemont FY Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- RUI FP : Rubis Gets Request for Molis Appointment to Supervisory Board
- SREN SW : Swiss Re 1Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- TKO FP : Musca Joins Tikehau Capital as Chairman of Supervisory Board
- TOKMAN FH : Tokmanni 1Q Net Sales Miss Estimates
- 2330 TT : TSMC Supplier GlobalWafers Hikes US Spending to $7.5 Billion
- UBI FP : Guillemot Brothers Extends Ubisoft Share Purchase Agreement
- UNI IM : Unipol 1Q Direct Insurance Income EU4.99B Vs. EU4.20B Y/y
- SPCE US : Virgin Galactic to Increase Price for Space Tourism Flights
- VST US : Vistra Makes AI Power Bet With $1.9 Billion Gas Deal

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 16th of May 2025

>>> Up
* Carnival Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $24
* Carnival Plc Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 1,645 pence
* CVC Capital Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 20 euros
* EDP SA Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 4.10 euros
* RENK Group Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 70 euros
* Seagate Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $100
* Tate & Lyle Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 670 pence

>>> Down
* Allianz Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 370 euros
* Eutelsat Cut to Sell at New Street Research; PT 1.40 euros
* Foot Locker Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $24
* Iveco Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* NIBE Industrier Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 45 kronor
* NV5 Cut to Hold at Lake Street; PT $23
* NV5 Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
* OTP Bank Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 28,440 forint

>>> Initiation
* Bossard Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 200 Swiss francs
* DuPont de Nemours Rated New Buy at Spin-Off Research; PT $77
* Havas NV Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT 1.90 euros
* Mha Rated New Corporate at Cavendish; PT 155 pence
* Robertet Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 931 euros
* SFS Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 140 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* Alcoa Slips as UBS Downgrades on ‘Lower for Longer’ View (1)

>>> D1 Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New BAC PRMB

D1 Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New BAC PRMB CNM SCHW ALK CP KRC RDDT INTC positions, Exited WMG STZ MMM DAL LYV
Highlights from Q1 2025 filing as compared to Q4 2024 (all amounts are approximate):
  • New positions: BAC (7.3 mln shares), PRMB (5.2 mln), CNM (5 mln), SCHW (4.36 mln), ALK (4.1 mln), CP (2.33 mln), KRC (1.89 mln), RDDT (1.79 mln), INTC (1.4 mln), SGI (1.4 mln), USFD (1.3 mln), APO (1.3 mln), AFRM (820K), BDX (672K), CRS (617K), CVNA (370K), CDNS (198K), CLH (193K)
  • Increased positions: ENTG (to 4.2 mln shares from 2.8 mln shares), XPO (to 3.1 mln from 2.0 mln), ANSS (to 864K from 249K), AMZN (to 951K from 409K), COF (to 811K from 487K), APP (to 790K from 481K), SNPS (to 335K from 253K), AMAT (to 205K from 181K)
  • Maintained positions in: CART (22.55 mln shares)
  • Closed positions: WMG (from 2.7 mln shares), STZ (from 1.5 mln), MMM (from 1.36 mln), DAL (from 1.3 mln), LYV (from 1 mln), VST (from 672K), PTC (from 589K), YPF (from 374K), MDB (from 327K), SPOT (from 326K), META (from 252K), MELI (from 45K)
  • Decreased positions: NU (to 9.8 mln shares from 14.9 mln shares), WRBY (to 0.3 mln from 5.3 mln), GEHC (to 1.3 mln from 3.5 mln), PM (to 1.5 mln from 3.6 mln), QSR (to 0.09 mln from 1.8 mln), LINE (to 2.7 mln from 3.8 mln), LXEO (to 1.0 mln from 2.2 mln), BBWI (to 2.2 mln from 2.8 mln), RCL (to 1.1 mln from 1.6 mln)

>>> Scopia Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New VVV

Scopia Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New VVV PRMB positions, Added to CC INDV SN DKNG AMZN
Highlights from Q1 2025 filing as compared to Q4 2024 (all amounts are approximate):
  • New positions: VVV (1159K), PRMB (920K)
  • Increased positions: CC (to 2 mln from 1.4 mln), INDV (to 1.9 mln from 1.5 mln), SN (to 505K from 371K), DKNG (to 878K from 825K), AMZN (to 167K from 125K)
  • Closed positions: FROG (from 1.2 mln), DRVN (from 1.1 mln), MNKD (from 695K), FTRE (from 427K), TSEM (from 273K), LESL (from 98K), MBLY (from 80K), TPIC (from 66K)
  • Decreased positions: HLIT (to 3.4 mln from 5.8 mln), PTON (to 3.7 mln from 4.2 mln), MRCY (to 872K from 1.3 mln), DLTR (to 284K from 649K), VSTS (to 2.5 mln from 2.8 mln), SGI (to 773K from 1.1 mln), AER (to 415K from 690K), MAGN (to 689K from 947K), CTVA (to 958K from 1.2 mln), FUN (to 315K from 487K)

>>> Engaged Capital (Glenn Welling) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F

Engaged Capital (Glenn Welling) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New YETI GXO positions, Added to GTLS VFC, Exited PRAA
Highlights from Q1 2025 filing as compared to Q4 2024 (all amounts are approximate):
  • New positions in: YETI (1.54 mln shares), GXO (0.91 mln)
  • Increased positions in: GTLS (to 0.37 mln shares from 0.22 mln shares), VFC (to 5.48 mln from 5.34 mln)
  • Maintained positions in: BRCC (13.54 mln shares)
  • Closed positions in: PRAA (from 0.62 mln shares)
  • Decreased positions in: VYX (to 0.43 mln shares from 5.77 mln shares), NATL (to 0.77 mln from 2.21 mln), PTLO (to 5.48 mln from 6.11 mln), EVH (to 5.18 mln from 5.4 mln)

>>> Tiger Global discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New Z / ZG

Tiger Global discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New Z / ZG XYZ APP GEV positions, Added to VEEV PDD NVDA RDDT MSFT TSM, Exited OKLO QCOM DDOG TEAM
Highlights from Q1 2025 filing as compared to Q4 2024 (all amounts are approximate):
  • New positions in: Z (5.22 mln shares), XYZ (1.88 mln), APP (1.67 mln), GEV (1.06 mln), ZG (0.9 mln)
  • Increased positions in: CPNG (to 13.33 mln shares from 8.12 mln shares), NU (to 11.03 mln from 8.88 mln), VEEV (to 2.42 mln from 0.38 mln), PDD (to 4.42 mln from 2.63 mln), NVDA (to 10.97 mln from 9.68 mln), RDDT (to 3.25 mln from 2.03 mln), MSFT (to 6.24 mln from 5.34 mln), TSM (to 4.24 mln from 3.63 mln), LRCX (to 4.42 mln from 3.96 mln), AVGO (to 2.27 mln from 1.85 mln), ZS (to 1.68 mln from 1.45 mln), SHW (to 1.2 mln from 1 mln), AMZN (to 6.59 mln from 6.42 mln)
  • Maintained positions in: GRAB (92.92 mln shares), SE (16.04 mln shares), GOOGL (10.31 mln shares), META (7.47 mln shares), TTWO (5.84 mln shares), FLUT (3.38 mln shares), DASH (2.2 mln shares), WDAY (1.88 mln shares), LLY (1.33 mln shares), SPOT (1.2 mln), CRWD (900K)
  • Closed positions in: OKLO (from 3.06 mln shares), QCOM (from 1.86 mln), DDOG (from 0.98 mln), TEAM (from 0.4 mln), ARM (from 0.3 mln), RBRK (from 0.25 mln), SARO (from 0.16 mln), DDL (from 0.12 mln), KVYO (from 0.04 mln)
  • Decreased positions in: APO (to 6.21 mln shares from 12.27 mln shares), UBER (to 0.15 mln from 2.6 mln)

>>> Discovery Capital Management discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F fi

Discovery Capital Management discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New TKC GDXJ FCX EAT SCHW positions, Added to AMTM CX IREN AMX, Exited YPF XOM XOP RIOT X AMZN IBIT
Highlights from Q1 2025 filing as compared to Q4 2024 (all amounts are approximate):
  • New positions: TKC (995K), GDXJ (429K), FCX (333K), EAT (194K), TUR (166K), SCHW (125K), KRMN (100K), UNH (74K), BABA (66K)
  • Increased: AMTM (to 2.6 mln from 465K), CX (to 3.5 mln from 1.7 mln), IREN (to 2.7 mln from 1.2 mln), AMX (to 2.6 mln from 1.7 mln), GENI (to 5.9 mln from 5.2 mln), METC (to 1.2 mln from 905K), HDB (to 257K from 60K), NBIS (to 2.1 mln from 1.9 mln), DFS (to 330K from 141K), PSN (to 327K from 154K), FSLR (to 59K from 33K), METCB (to 27K from 11K), LOAR (to 75K from 60K), PINS (to 280K from 270K)
  • Closed positions: YPF (from 852K), XOM (from 617K), XOP (from 573K), RIOT (from 566K), X (from 557K), IBIT (from 522K), FBTC (from 404K), VST (from 388K), MIR (from 360K), AMZN (from 333K), JPM (from 332K), GPN (from 274K), GRND (from 260K), URA (from 242K), CXW (from 235K), ECG (from 200K), CLBR (from 185K), CEG (from 166K), PAM (from 152K)
  • Decreased positions: AGRO (to 354K from 1.2 mln), SNAP (to 881K from 1.4 mln), GEO (to 1.4 mln from 1.8 mln), GGAL (to 1.1 mln from 1.3 mln), VIST (to 1.1 mln from 1.3 mln), BA (to 92K from 259K), TTWO (to 117K from 180K), META (to 10K from 40K), BAP (to 66K from 80K)