(Citi) Turkey Macro View

>>> What to expect when you are expecting rate cuts from the CBT?

* Although the majority of analysts had expected the CBT to be patient and keep rates unchanged at the January MPC meeting, the Bank surprised the markets and reduced its one-week repo rate by a relatively sizable 50 bps to 7.75%. The subsequent sharp depreciation of the lira, however, has complicated the CBT’s widely expected easing cycle, which is underpinned by the likely cyclical improvements in the current account balance and inflation this year. The markets are now pondering whether the CBT will shrug off the marked underperformance of the lira since the second half of January and cut rates.

* Against this backdrop, the objective of this note is twofold. First, to reiterate the challenges faced by the CBT as a reality check. Second, to shed some light on the nature and the magnitude of the CBT’s likely policy actions by taking cues from the CBT’s previous rate cuts and the prevailing domestic/global backdrop during past easing cycles.

* When we compare current conditions with the prevailing backdrop during previous easing episodes, we observe that: (i) Turkey-specific risks now seem to be higher (Figures 16 through 18); (ii) the current backdrop seems to be less favourable in terms of inflows into bonds and equities (Figure 19); (iii) the interbank o/n rate has tended to be close to the CBT's one-week repo rate during the CBT's past easing cycles, which doesn't seem to be the case now (Figure 20); (iv) in contrast to previous easing episodes, the interbank o/n rate is very close to the upper band, suggesting the CBT’s ability to cut the upper band — without hurting the lira — is limited.

* Moreover, a careful analysis of the CBT’s press releases on interest rates leads us to believe that the CBT has been trying to prepare markets for the likely easing cycle since September 2014 (Figures 26 through 28). In this respect, we believe that the increased references to “inflation” in the interest rate statements demonstrate the CBT’s determination to emphasize the likely base-effect-driven disinflation process, which is widely viewed as one the key underpinnings of the likely easing cycle

* In light of our findings, we have become more concerned about the negative
repercussions of monetary policy easing — reductions in the upper band in
particular — which could undermine the CBT’s ability to ease as much as we
penciled into our base case for this year. Regarding the next MPC meeting on
February 24th, we look for a 50bp cut in the one-week repo rate (60% probability).
However, we see more uncertainty about the upper band, and we assign a 45%
probability (compared with 60% before) to a 25bp reduction.

>>> Adidas Targets 2020 Sales of EU20b, Manager Magazin Reports

ADS +5.92%

Adidas CEO Hainer met his critics with a new growth strategy. So sales are expected to grow in 2020 by more than five billion euros. However, headhunters are already charged with the succession search.

Hamburg - 2020 in the sporting goods company wants to increase its revenue from the current 14.8 billion to 20 billion euros. This was reported by the manager magazine in its latest issue, citing the environment of the company (Release date: February 20). The design of the new 2020 also provides for an operating margin of at least 10 percent, published in Hamburg magazine writes.


A key component of the new five-year plan, to be presented in March, is a so-called capital strategy: A strong presence in New York, Los Angeles, Shanghai, Tokyo, London and Paris to Adidas give more radiance again. Each of megacities, the plan is equipped with its own leader. The 2020 is currently being discussed in the Management Board and Supervisory Board, a final version should be ready by the beginning of March.

Once the new strategy is, Adidas wants to search for a successor to CEO Herbert Hainer force. Hainer contract expires in March 2017. The mandate for the executive search, the international recruitment consultancy Egon Zehnder. The Adidas headhunters have supported in the past year about to rejuvenate the management. The company has recently been 12 of 26 top positions filled.
Investors had last been critical of the current leadership. The Aktionaersschuetzer Hans-Martin Buhlmann by the Association of Institutional private investors told the manager magazine: "I see glaring weaknesses in corporate governance at Adidas, which have an impact on our operating results." At the beginning of February, Ingo Save, portfolio manager of the Adidas shareholder Union Investment, opposite the "Wall Street Journal" demands ". We want Hainer is leaving the company"
BN 02/19 08:56 *MANAGER MAGAZIN CITES UNIDENTIFIED PEOPLE CLOSE TO ADIDAS
BN 02/19 08:55 *ADIDAS TARGETS '20 OP RETURN ON SALES AT LEAST 10%: MANAGER MAG
BN 02/19 08:54 *ADIDAS TARGETS 2020 SALES OF EU20B: MANAGER MAGAZIN
Adidas Targets 2020 Sales of EU20b, Manager Magazin Reports
2015-02-19 09:06:46.490 GMT


By Chris Malpass
(Bloomberg) -- Adidas will aim to boost sales by EU5b to
EU20b and operating return on sales of at least 10%, Manager
Magazin says citing people it doesn’t name.
* Manager Magazin also says:
* Co. to present new 5-year plan in March
* Key aspect of plan will be focus on strong presence in
cities of New York, Los Angeles, Shanghai, Tokyo, London
and Paris
* Adidas plans to name one manager to be in charge of
brand in each megacity
* Strategy still under discussion at supervisory board
level
* Search for new CEO to start once strategy decided as CEO
Herbert Hainer’s contract ends March 2017
* Headhunters Egon Zehnder has been charged with finding
new CEO
* Headhunters Egon Zehnder has been charged with finding
new CEO</li></ul>


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

--With assistance from Claudia Rach in Berlin.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Chris Malpass in Berlin at +49-30-70010-6234 or
cmalpass@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-3525-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Chris Malpass

REXAM : better sellers at current 570p share price

Firm offer announced The bid for Rexam has been anounced at an equivalent price of 610p . At current Rexam share price 570p we are better SELLERs

The issues with this firm bid is that it is very long dated. It may close by June 2016 just the time value of money using wacc 8pct and 450days to settle mean that 610p equivalent on offer becomes 560p

The bid requires approval from BALL shareholders and the transaction is going to leverage their BS aggresively. If credit markets look less liquid in 6 months time (when bidder may call the meeting) then Ball shareholders may reject the transaction

Antitrust is an issue and supposedly there would be several buyers for the potential divestments. But TNT/UPS showed many buyers for divestments does not mean real buyers.

Finally, there will be no scheme circular/offer docs until antitrust clearance is granted (PRE condition)

Conf call at 1pm . We wil comeback with a PDF report after that

Details: Type: UK Scheme of arrangement but requires afirmative vote by the bidder's share holders. Terms: Rexam shareholders will receive 407p in cash and 0.04568 new Ball shares. (The transaction values Rexam at 610p per share which is the same as per original approach) In addition, Rexam Ordinary Shareholders will be entitled to the 2014 Final Dividend of 11.9 pence announced by Rexam today, and to any other dividends declared or paid by Rexam in respect of any completed six-month period ended 30 June or 31 December between the date of this announcement and the date of the day before the Effective Date consistent with Rexam's past practice, provided that such dividends do not exceed the corresponding interim or final dividend paid or declared in respect of 2014. Closing: The Offer is expected to complete in the first half of 2016.

Key Conditions

1. The transaction is subject to approvals from each company's shareholders Ball has committed to hold the Ball Shareholders' meeting to approve the issuance within six months of the date of this announcement. 2. EU and US Regulatory approvals is a PRE condition. It is expected that the Scheme Document will be posted to Rexam Shareholders shortly after the satisfaction or waiver of the Pre-Condition.

It is expected that the necessary clearances will be obtained in the first half of 2016. Following closing of the transaction, Ball will remain a New York Stock Exchange listed company domiciled in the U.S. -we expect the combination will provide $300 million of annual run-rate, value creating synergies.Given the cash generative capabilities and the $300 million of annual run-rate synergies of today's proposed transaction, we expect to maintain a solid credit profile after this transaction is complete. Our pro forma leverage will be approximately 4.5 times net debt to EBITDA following this transaction, a level similar to our leverage following the Reynolds Metals transaction, when we were a much smaller company. Once we have reduced the leverage to levels in the range of 3.0 times net debt to EBITDA, the company will re-initiate its share repurchase program, and we are targeting 2018 for that Ball Corporation (NYSE: BLL) will host a conference call on Thursday, February 19, 2015, to discuss the proposed transaction. The call will begin at 6 a.m. Mountain Time (1 p.m. U.K. Time). The North American toll-free number for the call is 800-920-2905, the U.K. toll-free number is 0800 528 0280 and other international callers should dial 212-271-4651. Rexam will hold a presentation for analysts and investors to discuss its results for the full year 2014 at 9:00 a.m. UK time at the Merrill Lynch Financial Centre, 2 King Edward Street, London, EC1A 1HQ. Subject to certain restrictions, the presentation will be webcast live on www.rexam.com<http://www.rexam.com> at the above time and subsequently will be available on demand. The 09:00 UK conference can also be accessed via audio link by dialling: UK: + 44 (0)20 3139 4830 US: +1 718 873 9077 Access code: 17347007#

Alex Olvera Makor Capital 34 Dover Street London W1S 4NG United Kingdom

Direct line: + 44(0) 207 993 0793 e-mail: aolvera@makorsecurities.com<mailto:aolvera@makorsecurities.com>

www. makor-capital.com<http://makor-capital.com>

This message has been sent by Makor Securities London Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the FCA (625054). The information contained in this message is confidential and is for the exclusive use of the intended recipient. If you receive this message in error please inform us and delete all copies of it. The information is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. All comments and statements are to be considered the opinions of the author not the Company and are not intended to be relied upon. We cannot guarantee that this message or any attachments are virus free and accept no liability for any viruses or the consequences thereof.

(BN) Natixis Plans to Buy Asset Manager DNCA as Net Income Rises

€549mil for 71%
net income of €215mil
€14.2bil AUM
Natixis Plans to Buy Asset Manager DNCA as Net Income Rises
2015-02-19 06:00:01.0 GMT


By Fabio Benedetti-Valentini
(Bloomberg) -- Natixis SA said it’s buying a majority stake
in French asset manager DNCA as fourth-quarter profit rose on
higher sales from wholesale banking and money management.
Net income rose to 215 million euros ($245 million) from
150 million euros a year earlier, the Paris-based company said
in a statement. Earnings missed the 250 million-euro average
estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Natixis plans to acquire 71 percent of DNCA for 549 million
euros, a deal that should boost the bank’s earnings-per-share by
4 percent based on 2014 earnings, it said. The company, which
runs the investment-banking, insurance and asset-management
units of France’s second-biggest lender by branches, Groupe
BPCE, targets annual sales from its main businesses that will
exceed 8 billion euros by 2017.
“All our businesses made progress and exceeded their
revenue targets in France and abroad,” Chief Executive Officer
Laurent Mignon, 51, said in the statement. “DNCA would
represent a major reinforcement to our position in asset
management in Europe and make a positive contribution to growth
right from 2015.”
Natixis’s board yesterday renewed Mignon’s mandate as CEO
until 2019. Under Mignon as CEO, Natixis has been profitable
since the second half of 2009.

One-Time Dividend

Natixis is proposing a dividend of 20 cents per share for
2014 and and an exceptional payout of 14 cents from funds
released by Coface SA’s public offering last year, it said.
Capital-markets revenue rose 9 percent to 330 million euros
in the fourth quarter, Natixis said. Corporate-financing sales
rose 11 percent, helped by trade finance and Asian business,
while structured-financing revenue gained 6 percent in the
period.
Natixis is buying DNCA from TA Associates Management LP,
staff and Gruppo Banca Leonardo. In a separate transaction,
Natixis also plans to buy Leonardo’s French M&A business
specializing in midcaps, the company said.
Asset-management revenue rose 17 percent to 599 million
euros, helped by 4 billion euros of net inflows in the three
months through December.

For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:TOP<GO>
Top Financial News:FTOP <GO>
For French Banking Stories:TNI FRA BNK <GO>
European Crisis Monitor:CRISIS <GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Fabio Benedetti-Valentini in Paris at +33-1-5365-5095 or
fabiobv@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Elisa Martinuzzi at +39-02-8064-4218 or
emartinuzzi@bloomberg.net
James Kraus

>>> BPM managing director says bank wants to be involved in any cooperative bank

BPM managing director says bank wants to be involved in any cooperative bank merger project

Banca Popolare di Milano (BPM), the listed Italian cooperative bank, would be interested in joining any merger project involving Italy's major cooperative banks Italian language daily Milano Finanza reported. The report cited Giuseppe Castagna, the managing director of BPM, who said that the lender would be part of any such project.

The report cited Castagna as saying that as yet no negotiations had started on a possible merger.

The item noted that that Italy's listed cooperative banks have been examining a merger possibility since the government announced plans to force cooperatives with assets of over EUR 8bn to become joint stock companies. The government said that the main aim of the legislation was to encourage a merger process among these banks.

As previously reported, BPM's preferred merger partner is seen as listed Italian cooperative bank BPER. The report cited Alessandro Vandelli, BPER's CEO as saying that it was premature to talk of any merger possibilities and that the lender would wait to see what the government's final proposals are before making any decisions.

As previously reported, there have been rumours that three-four of Italy's cooperative banks could merge.

BPM has a market cap of EUR 3.65bn.

Milano Finanza daily edition

>>> Clariant could make small buys, transformational buys not planned

Clariant could make small buys, transformational buys not planned

Clariant, the Swiss chemicals group, will make bolt-on buys but is not planning transformational acquisitions at the moment, Basler Zeitung reported. Clariant Chief Executive Hariolf Kottmann told the Swiss daily that bolt-on buys are always possible and easy to finance, but transformational buys are more complex and are not planned at the moment.

Regarding speculation in 2014 that Clariant is a takeover candidate and asked if independence is a strategic premise, Kottmann said he would be disappointed if other companies were not interested, but noted that the industry is not known for hostile takeovers. Kottmann said talks have, and will always take place within the industry but he is convinced Clariant is better off alone and not as a division of a larger group.

Clariant reported a turnover of CHF 6.116bn in 2014, the report stated.

Basler Zeitung

(BFW) *REXAM AGREES TO BALL OFFER OF 628P/SHR

BN 02/19 07:06 *BALL CORP OFFERS TO BUY REXAM FOR 628P/SHR IN CASH, STOCK
BFW 02/19 07:06 *REXAM AGREES TO BALL OFFER OF 628P/SHR
BN 02/19 07:04 *BALL CORP RECOMMENDED OFFER REPRESENTS 628P PER REXAM SHR
BN 02/19 07:04 *REXAM: RECOMMENDED OFFER BY BALL CORP IN CASH, 0.04568 BALL SHR
BN 02/19 07:03 *REXAM: RECOMMENDED OFFER BY BALL ANNOUNCED TODAY OF 407P CASH
BN 02/19 07:03 *REXAM FY SALES 3,832 M
Rexam Underlying EPS Above Ests., Announces Offer From Ball
2015-02-19 07:07:09.373 GMT


By Cormac Mullen
(Bloomberg) -- Rexam says 2014 sales down 3% to GBP3.82b vs
GBP3.85b est., up 4% on organic basis.
* FY underlying pretax GBP360m vs GBP347m Bloomberg pretax
est.
* FY underlying EPS 37.2p vs 35.6p Bloomberg adj. EPS est.
* Announces recommend offer by Ball Corporation of 407p in
cash and 0.04568 of a new Ball share, representing in
aggregate 628p per Rexam ordinary share

Link to Statement:Link
Link to Company News:{BLL US <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{REX LN <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Cormac Mullen at +353-1-523-9526 or
cmullen9@bloomberg.net

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 19th of February 2015

>>> Up
*COMMERZBANK RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM UNDERPERFORM AT MAINFIRST
*FIAT CHRYSLER RAISED TO OUTPERFORM FROM NEUTRAL AT EXANE
*IBERDROLA RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*LAND SECURITIES RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*LOGISTA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*MAN GROUP RAISED TO CONVICTION BUY VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*ROSNEFT RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*SANOFI RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFAML
*UBM REALITAETENENTWICKLUNG AG RAISED TO BUY AT BAADER-HELVEA

>>> Down
*ATOS CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*CAT OIL AG CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*GALENICA CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*INTELSAT CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*SGS CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*WILLIAM HILL CUT TO HOLD VS ADD AT NUMIS

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*INNOVATION GROUP RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT 36P
*LSE REINSTATED NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*MERCK KGAA RESUMED UNDERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY, PT EU81
*NUMERICABLE RATED NEW BUY AT SOCGEN, PT EU60

>>> Call
>> Stock
*TECHNIP ADDED TO MORGAN STANLEY BEST IDEAS EUROPE

>>> What to look at today - 19th of February 2015

Dow-0,10% S&P-0,03% Nasdaq+0,14% Russell+0,24% VIX -2,21% (15,45)
US Market closed near flat line, For the second day in a row, stocks opened with slim losses and drifted inside narrow ranges until the early afternoon. The S&P 500 spiked off its low and made a brief appearance in the green following the FOMC minutes from the January meeting, but the index was back near its low just 30 minutes later. A second effort in the late afternoon propelled the S&P 500 back to its flat line ahead of the close. The FOMC minutes overshadowed afternoon reports from the Wall Street Journal indicating the European Central Bank will extend Greece's Emergency Liquidity Assistance allowance by EUR3.50 billion to EUR68.50 billion for two weeks. However, that may not be enough next week when Greece's government runs out of cash, according to Kathimerini. German ECB members have recently opposed using ELA funds to finance governments, which may explain the limited scope of the increase. energy sector weighed as crude oil returned to yesterday's intraday low, falling 2.7% to $52.12/bbl.Volume conitune to be light @ 716mil shares...The yield on the US 10-year note was down nearly 10bps, reversing some of the 50bp rise of the past 2 weeks, and greenback sank while gold rallied in the wake of surprisingly dovish FOMC policy meeting minutes. Some of the market chatter went as far as to opine that Fed chair Yellen waded into the global currency war, with the meeting pointing directly at the US dollar strength as posing a headwind to US exports and growth. External concerns, specifically slowdown in China and global disinflationary pressure, were also increasingly more visible in the language perceived to be rather cautious by the markets.Electronic trade in the energy markets was particularly volatile after API showed crude oil inventories jumping by over 14 million barrels - the biggest build in years and well above 3.7M expected. WTI Apr crude contract fell nearly 3% below $51/brl before a modest bounce. Spot gold traded up over $15 to $1,217 from levels seen just before the minutes release.News flow was extremely light in Asia with much of the region closed for Lunar New year. Japan dominated headlines, posting the smallest trade deficit on adjusted basis in nearly three years. Exports were up 17% - a 15-month high and well above 13.5%e - as shipments to US, China, and broader Asia all rose by double digits. Exports to Europe were up by a more modest 7.4%, though still impressive given the economic malaise in the area. Imports were also down 9% - the biggest decline in years - with volume shipments of oil also down 7%...Separately in Japan, Sankei press speculated the BOJ may consider formally delaying the timing of achieving 2% inflation target beyond the FY15/16 year, potentially rephrasing its stance with a more vague objective
Nikkei +0.36% Hang Seng +0.19% Shanghai Closed

RUB $ 61.68 WTI $50.62 (-2.92%) EurCHF 1.0749

EUR$ 1.1410 S&P -0.08% EuroStoxx+0.09% DAx-0.05% SMI +0.21%

Macro :
- Fed Ready to Keep Rates Low for Longer as Yellen Set to Testify
- Greece Pressure Mounts as ECB Shows Caution With Emergency Cash
- ECB Set to Unveil QE Conflicts as Meeting Summaries Go Public

Keep an eye on :
- ACS SM : ACS Plans Holding Co. to Merge Dragados, Hochtief: Confidencial
- AERL LN : Aer Lingus Sale Unlikely to Happen Before Election: Irish Times
- AF FP : Air France-KLM 2014 Ebitda EU1.59b vs Est. EU1.58b
- AGN NA : Aegon 4Q Net Beats, Underlying Pretax Rises 19%; Div. In Line
- ARCAD NA : Arcadis 4Q Ebita Rises, Sees Revenue and Profit Growth in 2015
- ATO FP : Atos 2014 Rev. Beats Est.; Net Misses, Atos Says Client Orders Show Start of Europe Economic Recovery
- BAMNB NA : BAM Posts 2014 Loss of EU108m on Dutch, Irish Impairments
- CAP FP : Cap Gemini 2014 Organic Growth Up 3.4%; 2014 Net Beats Est.
- CNP FP : CNP Assurances 2014 Net Rises 4.8% to EU1.08b; Est. EU1.11b
- DB1 GY : Deutsche Boerse Full-Year Net EU762.3m vs GAAP Est. EU687.7m
- DLG GY : Dialog Semiconductor Sees 1Q Sales Rise; 4Q Adj. Ebit Beats Est.
- ELE FP : Euler Hermes Full-Yr Net EU302.1m vs Est. EU309.6m
- EI FP : Essilor Predicts Comparable Sales Growth Exceeding 4.5% in 2015
- HEIA NA : Heineken to Spend EU750m on Share Buyback After Mexican Sale
- ING FP : Ingenico Sees 2015 Organic LFL Growth of 10% as 4Q Sales Beat
- MC FP : Biver Says LVMH’s Smartwatch to Debut Before Year’s End: HZ
- MERL LN : Merlin Signs Loan Contract With Allianz Real Estate for EU133.6M
- KN FP : Natixis 4Q Net Misses; Plans Extra Dividend From Coface IPO, Plans to Buy Leonardo’s French M&A Midcap Advisory
- NESN VX : Nestle 2014 Organic Sales Growth In Line With Ests., Aims to Achieve 2015 Organic Growth of Around 5%
- NOK1V FH : Nokia Networks in Talks With Carriers for India 4G Tech Deal: ET
- OMV AV : OMV Petrom 2014 Profit Falls 56% After 4Q Loss on Low Oil Price, OMV Petrom, Exxon Find New Gas Deposit in Black Sea, ZF Says
- PCI LN : Dragon Oil Says It Has No Intention to Bid for Petroceltic
- PSM GY : ProSieben Considering Takeover of Verivox, Sueddeutsche Says
- RAND NA : Randstad 4Q Sales Match Est., Net Rises; Jan. Growth Encouraging
- RBI AV : Moody’s Downgrades Raiffeisen Bank International
- RECIB SS : Recipharm 4Q Net Sales SEK873m vs SEK573m Y/y; Div. SEK1.25
- REX LN : Ball Corp, Rexam Deal May Be Announced This Week, WSJ Says
- RHM GY : Rheinmetall Says Order Backlog Reaches Record Level
- RIO LN : Rio Tinto Alcan May Expand Canada Smelters on Price Rebound: CP
- SAB LN : SAB’s Largest Holder Altria Says Keeping Stake in Best Interests
- SU FP : Schneider FY Net In Line, 2015 Ebita Margin Seen at 14%-14.5%
- SREN VX : Swiss Re 4Q Net Income Misses; Plans Buyback of Up to CHF1b
- TEN IM : Tenaris 2014 Ebitda Beats Est., Rev. Matches
- TCH FP : Technicolor Proposes Dividend, Sees Small Divestments in 2015
- TFI FP : TF1 2014 Rev. Matches Est., To Pay Special Dividend on Eurosport
- TKTT FP : Takkt 2014 Rev., Ebitda Beat, Sees 2015 Organic Rev. Growth
- TTI LN : Tom Tailor 2014 Recurring Ebitda Up 13% to EU87.2m