>>> What to look at today - 19th of December 2014

US Market closed higher even if Oil remains under pressure ($54.55 this morning), SNB moved pushed investors to think that European QE will come sooner that later...Energy sector was strong (+2.1%), MRO +3.3% after cutting 2014 capex by 20%...consumer discretionary (+1.6%) and materials (+2.3%) were the only other cyclical groups that could not finish ahead of the broader market...Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, technology (+3.0%) did some heavy lifting with a sizable assist from Oracle (ORCL 45.35, +4.19). The stock surged 10.2% in reaction to better than expected results while other large cap names like Apple (AAPL 112.65, +3.24), Microsoft (MSFT 47.52, +1.78), and IBM (IBM 157.68, +5.75) rallied between 3.0% and 3.9%. Over on the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+2.0%), telecom services (+1.8%), and utilities (+2.0%) lagged while the health care sector (+2.8%) ended ahead of the broader market with help from biotechnology....volume were again abvove average with 950mil shares...VIX @ 16.81 -13.53%...US..After Hours RHT +10.4%, NQ +6.4%, CTAS +6.2%, BGCP -2.7%, NKE -2.7% following earni/guidance...Asian Markets are following US performance...Bank of Japan rate was the key risk event of the session. Despite the recent disappointment in GDP figures, the BOJ actually raised its assessment on Industrial Output, Exports, and Housing Investment. BOJ reiterated economy continued to recover moderately as a trend, but also added the "decline in demand following front-loaded increase before tax hike is waning as a whole." BOJ also said exports have shown signs of picking up and housing investment/industrial output are bottoming out...a Nikkei report speculated the govt's fiscal stimulus is seen around ¥3.5, above ¥2-3T estimated initially. Cabinet is expected to approve the stimulus package as early as Dec 27th, with the Govt not expected to undertake any new debt issuance to fund the package... In China, the Stats Bureau revised up its 2013 GDP target by 3.4%, in line with earlier speculation, to reflect the latest census data....Nikkei +2.39% Hang Seng +1.37% Shanghai +1.32%

RUB 62.25 Crude WTI$54.55 Brent $59.38

Eur$ 1.2287 S&P +0.45% Eurostoxx +1.4% Dax +1.19% SMI +1%

Macro :
- China 2013 GDP Revision Won’t Affect 2014 GDP Growth
- China Revises Up 2013 GDP by 3.4% to 58.8t Yuan
- Oil Decline Threatens $127b in Global Investment: Wood Mackenzie
- Hollande Says No Need for New Sanctions Against Russia
- *JPMORGAN RAISES RUSSIAN STOCKS TO NEUTRAL VS UW IN CEEMEA

Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : Air France Cuts ’14 Ebitda Target by EU200m, Plans Cost Cuts
- ALU FP : Person Close to Alcatel Not Aware of Recent Merger Talks:Reuters {http://reut.rs/1z8LhpR}
- ALO FP : Alstom’s Kron to Propose Poupart-Lafarge as Successor: Figaro
- CU FP : Fosun Set to Raise Offer for Club Mediterranee Tomorrow: Reuters {http://tinyurl.com/pycwr23}
- FCC SM : Spain’s FCC Says Capital Increase Fully Subscribed
- FLUG AV : IFM Buys 29.9% of Flughafen Wien After Offer Oversubscribed
- GE US : GE Money Bank to Cut 204 Jobs in France, Les Echos Says
- MAU FP : Maurel & Prom Gets Credit Line Worth Up to $650M
- MBTN SW : Meyer Burger Wins Contracts Worth CHF12m-CH15m in Recent Weeks
- PGS NO : PGS Sees 2015 Ebitda at $550-700m vs $700m in 2014
- REP SM : Repsol S.A. Outlook to Stable From Positive by S&P
- ROG VX : Roche to Stop Scarlet Road Phase 3 Study of Alzheimer Treatment
- ROG VX : Roche’s Kadcyla-Perjeta Didn’t Meet PFS Superiority Endpoint
- SCYR SM : RBS Markets EU100M Sacyr Loan at 25% Discount: El Confidencial
- SLG GY : Salzgitter Gets ‘Notice of Suspension’ by South Stream Transport
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia Said to Favor All-Stock Deal in a Tim-Oi Merger

(SYH) Oil rout may trigger takeover wave in energy sector

Oil rout may trigger takeover wave in energy sector
2014-12-19 06:58:56.318 GMT


By Perry Williams
Dec. 19 (Sydney Morning Herald) -- Collapsing oil
prices below $US60 a barrel may trigger largescale
corporate consolidation not seen since the late 1990s as
international oil companies scramble to generate enough cash to
cover their spending commitments.
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie has warned that if Brent
oil remains at its current levels of just $US60 a barrel, major
energy companies will have to cut spending by 37 per cent or
$US170 billion ($208 billion) relative to 2014 just to maintain
current debt levels.
"Weak oil prices through 2015 will ratchet up the
pressure on the most financially stretched in the sector,"
said Woodmac's principal M&A analyst Luke Parker.
"[We] expect to see falling deal valuations and the
emergence of a true buyers' market. Large-scale corporate
consolidation may be closer than it has been at any point since
the late 1990s."
The two biggest deals of that decade were stitched in 1998
by Exxon and Mobil who merged in a $US73 billion tie-up while
BP merged with Amoco the same year as part of a £67
billion deal that created Britain's largest company. French
major Total also merged with Petrofina in 1999.
Two years later US oil giant Chevron bought Texaco in a
$US45 billion deal.
The consultancy notes that at $US60 a barrel only three
out of the top 40 international oil companies now generate
sufficient free cash flow to cover spending, piling pressure on
their balance sheets and opening opportunities for deal making.
Several deals in the last few months have set the scene
for wider scale M&A action.
Halliburton's $US26.5 billion bid for Baker
Hughes was accelerated by falling oil prices while Spain's
Repsol bough Canada's Talisman Energy for $US8.3 billion.
Fairfax Media has previously reported energy
companies with strong balance sheets such as Devon Energy,
Chesapeake Energy and XTO Energy have the financial capacity to
be acquirers.
Energy firms with high debt repayments and largely exposed
to oil will be hit the hardest. Marathon Oil, Hess Energy and
Occidental Petroleum will suffer some of the largest earnings
declines,
Both buybacks and dividends are likely to be cut should
oil prices remain depressed, Mr Parker said.
On the flipside, Woodmac says that deals already in motion
will come under further pressure.
"Hopeful sellers will not get the offers they would
have expected just a few months ago," Woodmac notes.
"M&A will not recover until a new 'consensus' emerges
??? typically at least three to six months from the point that
prices stabilise."
The UK's Dragon Oil shelved a £500 million deal
earlier in December for rival Petroceltic citing
"prevailing market conditions".
The third quarter of 2014 produced the highest value of
transactions within the global oil and gas industry in a
decade, according to consultancy IHS Herold, but the price
slump is expected to put a lid on deals values in the current
quarter.
On Thursday Woodmac warned both crude oil and liquefied
natural gas prices are likely to face further
­downward pressure into 2015, forcing producers to adapt to
a weaker ­short-term environment before ­conditions
improve.
Oil has fallen by nearly 50 per cent since early June to
its lowest level in five and a half years. The most recent
trigger for the price fall was the decision by Middle East
cartel Opec not to cut production despite global demand falling.

Click here to see the story as it appeared on Sydney Morning
Herald web site.

The Sydney Morning Herald
Copyright © (2011) Fairfax Media Publications Pty Limited.
www.smh.com.au. Not available for re-distribution.

-0- Dec/19/2014 06:58 GMT

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 19th of December 2014

>>> Up
*AVIVA RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT SANFORD BERNSTEIN
*DEBENHAMS RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*SAIPEM RAISED TO CONVICTION BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*STROEER MEDIA SE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*THALES RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*WPP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> Down
*AURUBIS AG CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*MICHELIN CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*INMARSAT CUT TO SELL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*NEXT CUT TO HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*PETROLEUM GEO-SERVICES CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*SAINSBURY CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SBERBANK CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*SEADRILL CUT TO CONVICTION SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*WOOD GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN

>>> PT Changes
*MARKS & SPENCER PT RAISED TO 550P VS 525; KEPT BUY AT JEFFERIES


>>> Initiation
*FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES RESUMED HOLD AT SOCGEN, PT EU9.5
*FINMECCANICA RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU8
*ING ASSUMED OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE, PT EU13.5
*MYTILINEOS HOLDINGS RATED NEW BUY AT CITI
*SKY DEUTSCHLAND REINSTATED EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU6.7

>>> Call
>> Country
*JPMORGAN RAISES RUSSIAN STOCKS TO NEUTRAL VS UW IN CEEMEA

>>> Nokia and Alcatel-Lucent gain on fresh merger talk - Kauppalehti Online

Nokia and Alcatel-Lucent gain on fresh merger talk

The French network equipment supplier Alcatel-Lucent and the Finnish telecoms network company Nokia, gained on the back of renewed merger rumours, according to Kauppalehti Online. The Finnish language piece cited a report in Manager Magazine which had reported that the two companies have yet again started merger talks.

The piece had cited unnamed sources and that Nokia is considering manufacturing of wearable technology. Earlier this spring, the two companies were rumoured to be in merger talks, the Finnish piece note. It said that the two companies’ shares rose as a result of merger talks.

Kauppalehti Online

RTR - Alcatel-Lucent shares jump 8 percent on Nokia merger report


Alcatel-Lucent shares jump 8 percent on Nokia merger report

(Reuters) - Two of Europe's top three remaining telecommunications equipment companies, Nokia Networks (NOK1V.HE) and Alcatel-Lucent (ALUA.PA), have revived talks on a possible merger, Germany's Manager Magazin reported on Thursday, citing company sources.

The two companies could agree to merge or strike up a close cooperation, the magazine said, adding that the contacts had resumed in the autumn.

A source close to Alcatel said, however, that he was not aware of any recent discussions regarding a potential merger.

Shares in Alcatel, an often volatile stock, rose 8.7 percent following the report. Nokia was up 3.4 percent.

Both Alcatel and Nokia declined to comment on the report.

Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia have held on-again, off-again talks for years before Nokia sold its struggling handset business in April to Microsoft in a 5.6 billion euro ($7 billion) deal that left Nokia to concentrate on developing the networks business.

"The old rumor comes back to the table," Inderes Equity Research analyst Mikael Rautanen said in reaction to the report. "The pressure for the market to consolidate is obvious."

The Manager Magazin article said that Nokia, with its strength in wireless networks, could benefit from a tie-up with Alcatel-Lucent, with its fixed-line network assets, as distinctions blur between wired and wireless networks in a mobile broadband world.

Nokia is looking for a modest return to growth in its core network equipment and services business next year, while Alcatel has remained focused on restructuring and cost-cutting as well as generating cash to cut its debt payments.

One source familiar with the matter said merger talks between the two have come and gone over the last five years. But any deal may potentially be hampered by French lawmakers afraid of massive Alcatel job cuts, the source said.

Rautanen, the Finnish analyst, said there were many hurdles to a successful deal, starting with the fact that large parts of Alcatel Lucent would not make a good fit with Nokia and would need to be spun off or sold for any deal to make sense.

Nokia has the cash following the Microsoft deal to contemplate buying Alcatel-Lucent and a deal would help bolster its position in the U.S. market, he noted. But Nokia could simply end up buying market share unless there was a deeper strategy, the analyst said.

"One should remember that mergers in this sector have a poor success history, they are very risky," Rautanen said.

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: BOJ raises economic assessment on industrial output, exports, and housing investment

***Economic Data***
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 37.3 V 41.7 PRIOR (1st decline in 4 months, 3-month low); ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 30.4 V 31.5 PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV CREDIT CARD SPENDING M/M: 0.3% V 1.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 5.2% V 6.8% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV NET MIGRATION: 5.0K V 5.3K PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV ANZ JOB ADS M/M: -0.1% V -0.3% PRIOR (2nd consecutive decline)
- (UK) DEC GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -4 V -1E (9-month low)
- (US) NORTH AMERICA NOV SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.02 V 0.93 PRIOR (first time above parity in 3 months)

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +1.7%, S&P/ASX +2.2%, Kospi +1.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Hang Seng +1.1%, Mar S&P500 flat at 2,059

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold +0.2% at $1,197, Jan crude oil +0.6% at $54.42/brl, Copper +0.3% at $2.87/lb
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1205 v 6.1195 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Dec 9th)
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Dec 17th: $4.50T v $4.49T prior; M1 y/y change: 9.6% v 9.7% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.8% v 5.9% w/w

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Broad-based risk-on rally that gave US stocks their biggest two-day gain of the year continued to reverberate in Asia. The recently oversold high-beta commodity sector of Australia has helped to pull the ASX200 by over 2%, with sharp gains in energy and metals. USD/JPY hit a fresh 1-week high of 119.40, helping Nikkei225 build on its gains. In China, Shanghai Composite was down in the morning session, but entered the final hour of trade with a new 4-year high above 3,100.

- Bank of Japan rate was the key risk event of the session. Despite the recent disappointment in GDP figures, the BOJ actually raised its assessment on Industrial Output, Exports, and Housing Investment. Policy settings remained unchanged otherwise, and board member Kiuchi was still the lone dissenter, favoring policy stance before Oct 31st easing. BOJ reiterated economy continued to recover moderately as a trend, but also added the "decline in demand following front-loaded increase before tax hike is waning as a whole." BOJ also said exports have shown signs of picking up and housing investment/industrial output are bottoming out. On inflation, the BOJ reiterated CPI expectations for the near term remain around 1%. Earlier, Fin Min Aso also noted Japan economy is continuing gradual recovery. Separately, a Nikkei report speculated the govt's fiscal stimulus is seen around ¥3.5, above ¥2-3T estimated initially. Cabinet is expected to approve the stimulus package as early as Dec 27th, with the Govt not expected to undertake any new debt issuance to fund the package.

- In China, the Stats Bureau revised up its 2013 GDP target by 3.4%, in line with earlier speculation, to reflect the latest census data. Chinese Yuan also remained under pressure against the surging greenback, with offshore Yuan extending losses through 6.2250 level - the weakest CNY levels since late June.

***Equities***
US markets:
- RHT: Reports Q3 $0.42 v $0.40e, R$456M v $451Me; +11.2% afterhours
- CTAS: Reports Q2 $0.86 adj v $0.78e, R$1.12B v $1.12Be; +7.3% afterhours
- XRX: To sell information technology outsourcing business to Atos for $1.05B; Cuts FY14, FY15 guidance as a result of the pending sale of the ITO business; +3.7% afterhours
- NQ: Reports Q3 -$0.19 v -$0.04 y/y, R$81.2M v $54.2M y/y; +2.2% afterhours
- GE: Selected by Cheniere for $1B Service Agreement for Sabine Pass LNG Export Terminal; +0.1% afterhours
- NKE: Reports Q2 $0.74 v $0.70e, R$7.4B v $7.16Be; -2.9% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Skymark Airlines 9204.JP -4.5% (considers ending some domestic flights); Nomura Research Institute 4307.JP +2.9% (press speculation on 9-month results); Sydney Airport SYD.AU +3.8% (Nov Op result)
- Financials: Financial Street Holdings 000402.CN +3.7% (Anbang Insurance discloses 20% stake)
- Industrials: BYD Corp 1211.HK +18.6% (issues update: business under normal Op); China Railway Erju 600528.CN +10.0% (awarded contract; Nov Op result); Shanghai Construction 600170.CN +4.4% (awarded contract); Incitec Pivot IPL.AU +3.3% (executives comments in AGM); Downer EDI DOW.AU +5.2% (awarded major contract)
- Technology: FujiFilm Holdings Corp 4901.JP +3.2% (working on health care business); Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +4.2% (may raise dividend)

RTR - Fosun to make new Club Med counterbid on Friday


Dec 18 (Reuters) - China's Fosun International plans to raise its offer for Club Mediterranee on Friday to outbid Italian tycoon Andrea Bonomi, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

In what has become France's longest takeover battle, Chinese billionaire Guo Guangchang must decide whether to counter Bonomi's 24 euro-per-share offer, wich values the holiday group at 915 million euros ($1.12 billion).

Loss-making Club Med, which operates 66 resorts ranging from Caribbean beach villages to Alpine ski resorts, employs 23,000 people including some 4,000 in France.

Club Med and Fosun, which first offered 17 euros per share in May 2013, both declined to comment on Thursday.

But investors appeared to expect a counterbid from the Chinese conglomerate, with shares in the French company closing at 24.90 in Paris, up 42 percent since the start of the year.


Dec 18 (Reuters) - China's Fosun International plans to raise its offer for Club Mediterranee on Friday to outbid Italian tycoon Andrea Bonomi, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

In what has become France's longest takeover battle, Chinese billionaire Guo Guangchang must decide whether to counter Bonomi's 24 euro-per-share offer, wich values the holiday group at 915 million euros ($1.12 billion).

Loss-making Club Med, which operates 66 resorts ranging from Caribbean beach villages to Alpine ski resorts, employs 23,000 people including some 4,000 in France.

Club Med and Fosun, which first offered 17 euros per share in May 2013, both declined to comment on Thursday.

But investors appeared to expect a counterbid from the Chinese conglomerate, with shares in the French company closing at 24.90 in Paris, up 42 percent since the start of the year.

France's AMF market regulator has given Fosun until 1700 GMT on Friday to table a counterbid or throw in the towel

>>> US After Hours RHT +10.4%, NQ +6.4%, CTAS +6.2%, BGCP -2.7%, NKE -2.7% follo

After Hours Summary: RHT +10.4%, NQ +6.4%, CTAS +6.2%, BGCP -2.7%, NKE -2.7% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: RHT +10.4%, NQ +6.4%, CTAS +6.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: PETX +22.6% (announced positive top-line results from AT-001 pivotal field study in client-owned dogs with osteoarthritis), ERS +2.4% (expanded working capital credit agreement to $275 mln), MEIP +1.7% (Point72 Asset Management disclosed 7.2% passive stake in 13G filing), TICC +1.3% (adopted a stock repurchase program of up to $50 mln worth of common shares), ALLY +1.1% (announced the U.S. Department of Treasury launched an offering to sell its remaining ~54.9 mln shares of Ally common stock)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: BGCP -2.7%, NKE -2.7%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: TNK -5.6% (announced public offering of 20 mln shares of Class A common stock), MET -1.0% (co has been designated as systemically important by regulators, as expected), AA -0.9% (filed for ~36.5 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders),