WSJ : Oil Extends Selloff on UAE Minister’s Comments

Oil Extends Selloff on UAE Minister’s Comments
Nymex Crude Oil Futures Drop Below $45 Per Barrel

Oil prices fell in Asian trade Tuesday after bearish comments by United Arab Emirates’ oil minister that pushed the U.S. oil benchmark below the $45 a barrel mark.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at $44.95 a barrel at 0640 GMT, down $1.12 in the Globex electronic session. February Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $1.36 to $46.07 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain its decision to keep output unchanged regardless of current oil prices, the United Arab Emirates’ oil minister said Tuesday. He said producers outside the group need to be rational and adjust their output according to the market.

“(OPEC) cannot continue protecting a certain price. That is not the only aim of OPEC,” Suhail Mohamed Faraj al-Mazrouei said at an energy event in Abu Dhabi organized by Gulf Intelligence.

Oil prices had lost around 5% on Monday alone, extending the selloff that has gripped oil markets since mid-2014, as sell-side analysts slashed price forecasts and warned of a prolonged glut in global oil markets that will extend well into 2015.

“Investors are so afraid right now they will just react to any negative news,” economist Vyanne Lai at National Australia Bank said by phone. She said in the current environment where volatility is high, investors aren't getting any direction to indicate markets could get stronger and it is a futile exercise to try and pick a price bottom.

“We’re left in a vacuum in terms of what would move fundamentals at this stage. It will remain a more sentiment-driven market, and so far sentiment is on the downside,” Ms. Lai said.

Strong trade data from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, failed to boost sentiment. China’s December exports rose by a faster-than-expected 9.7% on the back of stronger overseas demand, a small bright spot in the country’s slowing economy.

Its oil imports for the month hit record highs. China imported 30.37 million metric tons of crude oil in December, equivalent to 7.2 million barrels a day, preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs showed Tuesday. This was 13% higher than a year earlier, and topped a record high in January 2014 of 28.16 million tons of imported oil.

“This was largely expected given the surge in Chinese buying as prices have fallen, with imports expected to remain very strong in January and February,” analyst Ivan Szpakowski at Citi Research said.

But while China posted a 9.7% growth in oil imports in 2014, Mr. Szpakowski expects net imports to grow at a slower 3% for 2015 due to fewer new refineries being built this year.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Department will publish its monthly oil market report and any major revisions to global oil demand or supply projections could move oil prices.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for February—the benchmark gasoline contract—fell 130 points to $1.2615 a gallon, while February diesel traded at $1.6341, 200 points lower.

ICE gasoil for February changed hands at $461.75 a metric ton, down $9.75 from Monday’s settlement.

>>> What to look at today - 13th of January

Dow-0,54% S&P-0,81% Nasdaq-0,84% Russell-0,47%
US Market start second week of the year on a weak note, S&P was not able to retest its 50d MA, the energy sector (-2.8%) was the weakest performer with crude oil contributing to the pressure after Goldman Sachs lowered its short-term forecast for the commodity. WTI crude ended the pit session on its low, down 4.9% at $46.07/bbl. Tech Stocks were also underpressure with all big names closing lower...Cybersecurity was the only pocket of relative strenght after Pres. Obama commnets (FEYE +4,8%), countercyclical consumer staples (-0.3%) and utilities (-0.3%) outperformed while the telecom services sector (+0.6%) spent the day in the green...volume were in line with average with 760mil shares traded...US After Hours : Higher :HEAR +11.9%, XENT +10.9%, PCYC +10.7%, BEBE +7.7%, SNX +5.4%, HXL +4.1%, TLYS +3.4%, CNV +2.4%, AA +1.2%...Lower : ECOM -28%, BGFV -8.3%, WWW -7.9%, LMNR -4.6%, GG -0.5%, VMI -0.2%...China released December trade balance today at a surplus of $49.6B, slightly higher than consensus of $49.0B surplus. China December adjusted exports grew at 6.6% y/y, while adjusted imports shrank 6.2% y/y. Overall in 2014, China's trade growth was at 3.4% y/y, missed official target of 7.5%. China Customs Bureau official said weak 2014 trade growth due to slow global recovery, also forecasted 2015 trade growth to be higher than 2014.Japan released November adjusted current account figure at surplus of ¥915B, beating consensus of ¥693B, also marked 7th consecutive surplus.
Nikkei -0.64% Hang Seng +0.47% Shanghai -0.33%

RUB $63.88 RUB €75.88 WTI $45 (-2.32% traded down to 44.88) Brent $46.11 (-2.78% traded down to 46.08)

Eur$1.1832 S&P 2024.5 +0.11% EuroStoxx -0.23% Dax -0.07% SMI -0.11%

Macro :
- Italy President Napolitano to Resign Tomorrow, Corriere Says
- Fed's Williams says June rate rise is 'reasonable'; notes wage and price data are still soft
- China’s Dec. Exports Rise 9.9% Y/y in Yuan Value
- Catalonia to Request EU6.3B From Central Government: Expansion

Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : AB InBev Strategy Chief Van Biesbroeck Nets EU7.76m With Options
- AENA IPO : Spain Airport Operator Aena to Hold IPO on Feb 11: Expansion
- AGR AV : Agrana 3Q Net Income EU19.5m vs EU31.4m; Sees FY Ebit Falling
- ALT FP : Altran Targets 2020 Rev. of EU3b: La Lettre de L’Expansion
- SAN SM : Santander draws EUR 500m investment from Soros 
- BELL SW : Bell 2014 Rev. in Line With Est.
- BC IM : Brunello Cucinelli 2014 Net Rev. Rises 10% to EU355.8m
- DAI GY : Daimler CEO Sees 4% Increase of 2015 Global Car Market
- GEBN VX : Geberit Says FY Sales Rise 4.9%, 4Q Sales Growth 1.9%
- KER FP : Kering Completes Gucci Eyewear Partnership Agreement With Safilo
- LISP SW : Lindt 2014 Sales Beat Ests, Sees Ebit Margin Growth in Target
- MEO3 GY : Metro 1Q Sales In Line With Ests., LFL Sales Up 2.1%
- PTC PL : PT Shareholders Approve Suspending Meeting for 10 Days: Union
- PTC PL : Portugal Telecom Shares to Resume Trading, CMVM Says
- ROG VX : Roche Licenses Beta-Lactamase Inhibitor to Meiji, Fedora
- SAF FP : Safran Invests $130m in Carbon Disk Plant in Malaysia
- SAN FP : Sanofi CFO Contamine Says M&A Targets Remain Expensive
- SBO AV : Schoeller-Bleckmann 2014 Prelim. Rev. EU488m vs Est. EU479m
- SN/ LN : Smith & Nephew CEO says Sanofi Job ‘Not on the Agenda’, CEO Doesn’t Believe Big is Beautiful
- SPM IM : Italy Market Watchdog Bans Short Sale on Saipem Tomorrow
- SZU GY : Suedzucker 3Q Sales In Line With Ests., Confirms FY Forecast
- TEMN SW : Temenos 4Q Licensing ‘Very Disappointing‘, Own to Weak Sales
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia CEO to Meet With Brazil Minister Berzoini: Sole
- TKA AV : Telekom Austria Says Interest in Telekom Srbija ‘Very Limited’
- TLW LN : Tullow Oil to Cut Jobs by End of 1Q, Telegraph Says
- UCB BB : UCB Appoints Ismail Kola as Chief Scientific Officer
- VOW3 GY : Lamborghini CEO Says ‘Good Premises’ for 2015 After Record Year

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of January 2015

>>> Up
*ANTOFAGASTA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFROM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*BODYCOTE RAISED TO BUY VS UNDERPERFORM AT BOFA
*CAMPARI RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN
*CENTRICA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*COMMERZBANK RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*EMAAR MALLS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*ITV RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS MARKET PERFORM AT SANFORD BERNSTEIN
*METSO CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT BOFA
*OSRAM LICHT RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*REXEL RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFA
*SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFA, PT EU68
*SKF RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFA
*SKY PLC RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT SANFORD BERNSTEIN
*SMITHS GROUP RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT CITI
*SUEZ ENVIRONNEMENT RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*TATE & LYLE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*VEOLIA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*WARTSILA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT BOFA

>>> Down
*ABB CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT BOFA
*AIRBUS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT BOFAML
*ATLAS COPCO CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT BOFA
*BANCO POPULAR CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT: MORGAN STANLEY
*BOUYGUES CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*COBHAM CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT LIBERUM
*DANONE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA
*HUSQVARNA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DNB
*KAZ MINERALS CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*MILLICOM CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*ROLLS-ROYCE CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT SOCIETE GENERALE
*SES CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*SIEMENS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT BOFA
*WEIR GROUP CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT BOFA

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*FIAT CHRYSLER REINSTATED OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU11.5
*LSE REINSTATED OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT 2,550P
*TULLOW OIL RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES, PT 345P

>>> Call
>> Stock
*DIA ADDED TO JPMORGAN ANALYST FOCUS LIST, RATES UNDERWEIGHT
*MEDIASET, SYNERGIE ADDED TO JPMORGAN RADAR; CAPE, PACE REMOVED

FT Lex : Tiffany & Co: luxury of time

Tiffany & Co: luxury of time
Is it enough to be international and high-end?

When Tiffany is doing well, its luxury products and global presence make it tricky to use its results to draw conclusions about other US retailers. Those other US retailers better hope that the analogy remains tenuous.
In 2014, Tiffany shares rallied over 60 per cent. Strong results in the US and resilience in Asia and Europe led it to raise earnings guidance twice, despite the underlying weakness of the US consumer. But at the outset of fourth-quarter earnings season on Monday, the jewellery group said that holiday earnings were weak, and that 2015 was unlikely to sparkle — earnings growth may only reach mid-single digits. Investors in other US retailers may shrug, but plenty of other US companies may soon be cribbing the text of Tiffany’s warning.

Nearly half of Tiffany’s sales come from abroad — primarily in Asia, Japan (a separate segment), and Europe. Currency translation lowered sales growth in Japan and Europe by 13 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively. Stripping that out, sales in Europe were up a healthy 9 per cent while Japan was down 3 per cent. The recent rally in the dollar is expected to sting US multinationals as fourth-quarter results come out. One way to counteract dollar appreciation would be for Tiffany to raise international prices, but economic weakness may preclude that.
Tiffany’s US holiday sales were off 1 per cent. US results earlier in 2014 were strong: both prices and unit sales rose, and Tiffany’s gross margin reached nearly 60 per cent in the third quarter. A significant portion of US sales are to foreign tourists and some of the domestic weakness could stem from greenback-poorer visitors.
The 2014 Tiffany rally rested on the long-term global growth opportunity and its enduring brand. The current sell-off (the shares were down 14 per cent on Monday) then may present a buying opportunity. Yet it still trades at over 20 times 2015 earnings, a juicy number for a fashion company — no matter how international or prestigious.

WSJ : Lindt & Spruengli Sales Lifted by M&A

Lindt & Spruengli Sales Lifted by M&A
Swiss Chocolate Maker’s Sales Boosted by its Acquisition of Russell Stover Candies

ZURICH—Swiss chocolate maker Chocoladenfabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG said Tuesday that its 2014 sales increased by a better-than-expected 17.4%, helped by its acquisition of U.S. firm Russell Stover Candies LLC.

Kilchberg-based Lindt said its sales rose to 3.39 billion Swiss francs ($3.34 billion) in the year to Dec. 31, up from 2.88 billion francs a year earlier. The figure beat analysts’ expectations of 3.23 billion francs.

The company, famous for its Lindor truffles, said it had significant sales growth in all markets and expects operating income to match the previous year’s level. It will report full-year earnings on March 10.

>>> After Hours Summary: HEAR +11.9%, XENT +10.9%, PCYC +10.7%,

After Hours Summary: HEAR +11.9%, XENT +10.9%, PCYC +10.7%, ECOM -28%, BGFV -8.3%, WWW -7.9% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: HEAR +11.9%, XENT +10.9%, PCYC +10.7%, BEBE +7.7%, SNX +5.4%, HXL +4.1%, TLYS +3.4%, CNV +2.4%, AA +1.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: BVX +19.1% (announced all J-Plasma disposable hand pieces as well as the Bovie Ultimate generator have received CE Mark approval for compliance with European Union safety, health and environmental protection requirements), GEVO +18.7% (co has launched sales of renewable isobutanol to Brenntag Canada), TOPS +6.0% (co entered into a sale and leaseback agreement for two of its vessels: the M/T StenaWeco Energy and the M/T StenaWeco Evolution), HXL +4.1% (co initiated a $0.10 per share quarterly dividend; co also provided guidance), RLH +3.7% (co entered into an agreement to sell its hotel in Bellevue, Wash. for $35.4 mln to an affiliate of Wig Properties), CLB +3.0% (increased quarterly dividend 10% to $0.55 from $0.50 per share), BLCM +2.1% (Baker Bros. Advisors disclosed 16.3% passive stake in 13G filing)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: ECOM -28%, BGFV -8.3%, WWW -7.9%, LMNR -4.6%, GG -0.5%, VMI -0.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ANW -3.7% (announced proposed offering of $40 mln of additional 4.00% convertible senior notes due 2018), AIV -2.2% (announced it has commenced a public offering of 8.2 mln shares of its common stock), HPP -2.1% (announced it has commenced a public offering of 9.5 mln shares of common stock), BRX -1.6% (announced offering of 17.5 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders), BURL -0.7% (announced offering of 12.5 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders)

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China 2014 trade balance missed official target; Japan posted smallest deficit in 5 months

***Economic Data***
- (NZ) New Zealand Dec ANZ Truckometer Heavy M/M: +2.1% v -2.9% prior
- (KR) South Korea Dec Export Price Index M/M: -2.4% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: -4.3% v -2.1% prior
- (KR) South Korea Dec Import Price Index M/M: -5.1% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -13% v -7.9% prior
- (JP) JAPAN NOV CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥433B V ¥140BE; ADJ CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥915B V ¥693BE (7th consecutive surplus); TRADE BALANCE: -¥637B V -¥734BE (smallest deficit in 5 months)
- (JP) JAPAN DEC BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS: 2.6% V 2.7% PRIOR; BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS: 2.7% V 2.8% PRIOR
- (UK) UK DEC BRC SALES LFL Y/Y: -0.4% V +1.0%E; TOTAL SALES Y/Y: +1.0% V +2.2% PRIOR
- (CN) CHINA DEC TRADE BALANCE: $49.6B V $49.0BE

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -1.8%, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi -0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Mar S&P500 +0.1% at 2,023

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold +0.3% at $1,236, Feb crude oil -1.8% at $45.25/brl, Mar Copper flat at $2.71/lb
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥70B in JGB with maturity less than 1-yr, ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (13th consecutive halt)
- JGB: (JP) 5-yr JGB yield drops to zero for the first time; 10-yr yield hits record low near 0.255%
- (TW) Taiwan to sell NT$25B in 6-month bills; Yield: 0.490% v 0.530% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.02x

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- China released December trade balance today at a surplus of $49.6B, slightly higher than consensus of $49.0B surplus. China December adjusted exports grew at 6.6% y/y, while adjusted imports shrank 6.2% y/y. Overall in 2014, China's trade growth was at 3.4% y/y, missed official target of 7.5%. China Customs Bureau official said weak 2014 trade growth due to slow global recovery, also forecasted 2015 trade growth to be higher than 2014. Taking a look at some components, iron ore imports rose to 86.9M tons, and crude oil imports rose to 30.4M, both at record high level. Aussie/Dollar traded initially higher to just below 0.82 level, then moved back lower during the later session.

- Japan released November adjusted current account figure at surplus of ¥915B, beating consensus of ¥693B, also marked 7th consecutive surplus. Trade balance for Japan was at a deficit of ¥637B, a smaller deficit than ¥734B expected, also the smallest trade deficit for Japan in 5 months. JGBs moved higher on today's session amid BoJ buying. Yield for 5-year JGB dropped to zero for the first time in history, while 10-year JGB yield hit record low near 0.255%. Dollar/Yen moved below ¥118 handle after Japan trade balance data, then traded back higher to about ¥118.40 in later Asian session, on stronger Dollar across the currency board.

***Equities***
US markets:
- BEBE: Reports prelim Q2 SSS +8%; Sees Q2 adj loss per share in low single digit range, high end; +18.6% afterhours
- PCYC: Reports prelim Q4 net product revenue $185M; Guides FY14 Imbruvica sales $492M and FY15 Imbruvica sales $1B; +11.1% afterhours
- XENT: Reports preliminary Q4 R$13.2-13.4M v $11.6Me; +10.9% afterhours
- SNX: Reports Q4 $1.83 v $1.70e, R$3.82B v $3.72Be; +5.7% afterhours
- HXL: Reports prelim FY14 adj $2.16 v $2.15e, Rev $1.86B v $1.85Be; Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.10/shr (implied yield 1.0%); +4.1% afterhours
- NEWP: Guides Q4 Rev $156M or higher v $154Me - conf presentation materials; +2.1% afterhours
- AA: Reports Q4 $0.33 v $0.26e, R$6.38B v $6.02Be; +1.5% afterhours
- AGIO: Celgene Agrees to Exercise its Option to License AG-120 under Global Strategic Collaboration; +1.1% afterhours
- VMI: Cuts FY14 $8.10-8.20 adj v $8.59e (prior $8.55-8.65); -0.2% afterhours
- WWW: Reports prelim Q4 R$808M v $789Me, FY14 at high end of $1.57-1.63 v $1.61e, R$2.76B v $2.74Be; Guides initial FY15 EPS flat y/y (implies $1.57-1.63 v $1.76e); -6.8% afterhours
- BGFV: Reports prelim Q4 $0.14-0.16 v $0.20e, R$250.3M v $257Me, SSS -0.5%; -8.3% afterhours
- ECOM: Lowers Q4 Rev guidance to $23.7M v $25.9Me (pior $25.6-26.1M); -29.6% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Air China 601111.CN +1.6%, China Southern 600029.CN +0.5% (WTI crude lower)
- Financials: Huatai Securities 601688.CN +0.5% (Dec op results)
- Materials: BBMG 2009.HK -6.3% (FY14 guidance); Alumina AWC.AU +3.6% (Q4 production)
- Energy: JX Holdings 5020.JP -2.0% (to miss guidance)
- Industrials: Cardno Ltd CDD.AU -7.9% (appoints acting CEO)

>>> Alcoa beats by $0.06, beats on revs; co reports record quarter cash from ope

AA --> +1% After Hours

Alcoa beats by $0.06, beats on revs; co reports record quarter cash from operations of $1.5 billion 

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.33 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.27; revenues rose 14.2% year/year to $6.38 bln vs the $6.03 bln consensus.

Some key highlights:
- Global Rolled Products after-tax operating income more than triples year-over-year, auto growth continues
- Upstream business improves performance for 13th consecutive quarter
- Alumina after-tax operating income up more than twofold year-over-year
- Primary Metals adjusted EBITDA per metric ton strongest since second quarter 2008
- Record quarter cash from operations of $1.5 billion Free cash flow of $989 million, highest since fourth quarter 2010
- Alcoa projects 7% global aluminum demand growth in 2015