(BofA-ML) The Flow Show : Big Japan Equity Inflows!!!!

>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: $1.9bn inflows (first inflows in 5 weeks) (note divergence between $8.7bn
- ETF inflows and $6.8bn mutual fund outflows)
- Bonds: tiny $16mn outflows (first outflows in 19 weeks)
- Precious metals: $0.1bn outflows
- MMF: $6.4bn outflows

>>> Equity Flows
- Japan: big $4.3bn inflows (largest since Oct’14 and 12 straight weeks of inflows)
- Europe: 2nd straight week of outflows ($1.2bn)
- EM: $2.6bn outflows (outflows in 10 out of past 11 weeks)
- US: modest $0.6bn inflows (ends 8-week outflow streak)

>>> Fixed Income Flows
- $1.9bn outflows from govt/tsy funds (biggest outflows in 10 weeks)
- 73 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($2.1bn)
- Small $0.2bn outflows from HY bond funds (3 straight weeks)
- First MBS outflows in 30 weeks (albeit small $48mn)
- 9 straight weeks of inflows to TIPS funds ($0.2bn)
- 8 straight weeks of inflows to EM debt funds ($0.1bn)

--> Talking Points
- For the first time in 2015 equity funds see inflows ($1.9bn) and bond funds see outflows (albeit teeny tiny $16mn outflows)
- Largest weekly inflows ($4.3bn) to Japanese equity funds in 29 weeks (Chart 1) but…
- …European equity funds fall out of favor, recording 2nd straight week of outflows ($1.2bn) (Chart 2)
- US equity funds end 8 straight weeks of redemptions with modest $0.6bn inflows
- Pain in fixed income concentrated in government bonds ($1.9bn outflows – biggest in 10 weeks)
- Recent bond trends: consecutive inflows

(BFW) Takeover Said to Be ‘Definitely on the Cards’ for ITV: City A.M.

Takeover Said to Be ‘Definitely on the Cards’ for ITV: City A.M.
2015-05-15 06:10:32.915 GMT


By Christopher Kingdon
(Bloomberg) -- Takeover by someone is “definitely on the
cards,” City A.M. reported earlier, citing an unidentified City
source.
* Source indicated that if not Liberty, then Vivendi could be
a potential buyer: City A.M.
* NOTE: April 17, BP, ITV Among Candidates as M&A Picks Up in
Europe, Liberum Says


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST <GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW <GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Christopher Kingdon in London at +44-20-3525-0872 or
ckingdon@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Clyde Eltzroth at +1-212-617-1879 or
celtzroth1@bloomberg.net
Colin Keatinge

(Citi) Global Eq. Strat. : It’s Bubble Time

* Bubble Breeders — Previous ageing bull markets have been associated with asset price bubbles. They are often based around a convincing idea (Secular Stagnation?), and fuelled by excess liquidity. They are big enough and last long
enough to destroy many contrarian investors.
* Bubble Assets — Right now, European fixed income valuations look most bubbly. DM equities look only mildly expensive. EM equities and commodities look least
bubbly.
* Bubble Equities — Within global equities, US/European Consumer and Health
Care stocks look most bubbly. Unfashionable EM commodity and Financial stocks
look least bubbly.
* Bubble Bursters — Rate hikes eventually burst bubbles, but it usually takes at least three to stop the juggernaut. We do not expect the third Fed hike until 3Q16. In the meantime, expensive stocks may keep getting more expensive.
* Bubble Pragmatists — It is still too early to fight this bull market. We remain Overweight the increasingly bubbly Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors. For balance, we are also Overweight the distinctly unbubbly Financials.

(BarCap) Thales Limited downside, plenty of upside - PT upgraded from €52 to €60

At an undeserved 20% discount to EU Defence peers on an EV/EBIT basis (BBG cons. estimates), we see an attractive entry point with limited downside risk. The 36% increase in order backlog in Q1’15 is thanks to its 25% work content on Dassault’s Rafale fighter jet which has enjoyed firm orders from Egypt and Qatar in Q1. Some investors were disappointed after Thales explained these orders would enable a sustained build rate rather than incremental upside, but we see this as a veryconservative planning assumption given the probable order from India for another 36 jets, which would drive incremental growth via doubling the build rate from 11 to c.22 aircraft per year from 2016/17 (c€520m revenue and c6% EBIT). With balance sheet optionality (€1bn, or 0.8x Net Cash/EBITDA) and a materially improved backdrop to French defence, we see limited downside with significant upside. A buy back to lever to 1x Net Debt/EBITDA would offer c40% accretion to FY16 EPS, for example.

--> Full note attached

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 15th of May 2015

>>> Up
*ARCELORMITTAL RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFA
*BESI RAISED TO HOLD VS REDUCE AT KEPLER CHEUVUREX
*GAME DIGITAL RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT HSBC
*IMPALA PLATINUM RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*OPHIR ENERGY RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*SPEEDY HIRE RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC

>>> Down
*AIR BERLIN CUT TO REDUCE AT HSBC
*ANTOFAGASTA CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD AT LIBERUM; PT 700P
*DS SMITH CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS {NSN NODN7I6JTSEA<Go>}
*ELEKTA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*ITV CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*LONMIN CUT TO SELL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*NLMK CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*PRESIDENT ENERGY CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT RBC
*SEVERSTAL CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS

>>> PT Change
*THALES PT RAISED TO €60 FROM €52 (Note attached)

>>> Initiation
*C&W COMMUNICATIONS RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN, PT 65P
*WIRECARD AG RATED NEW BUY AT BOFA, PT EU52

>>> Call
>> Stock
*TATNEFT EXITS UBS MOST PREFERREDS, GAZPROM NEFT FROM LEAST

>>> What to look at today - 15th of May 2015

Dow+1,06% S&P+1,08% Nasdaq+1,39% Russell+1,04% VIX 12.74
US Market closed on record level...Tech was one of the best performers, most og big tech cap showed solid gains except CSCO, that was reorted tonight...Avon Products (AVP 7.07, +0.40) was a notable mover within the group after it was reported that PTG Capital offered $18.75 per share of AVP; however, Avon responded to the report, saying no such offer has been received and that it was unable to verify the existence of PTG Capital. Shares of AVP briefly rallied to their 50-day moving average (8.09), before narrowing their gain to 6.0% by the close. the energy sector lagged amid a pullback in crude oil. WTI crude settled lower by 1.0% at $59.88/bbl. Today's advance in equities was accompanied by a rallying Treasury market with the 10-yr yield falling five basis points to 2.23%. volume were on thr side light @ 700mil shrares...US After Hours BSQR +32%, SANW +13.3%, EMAN +8.7%, ZBB -15.9%, LOCO -13%, KING -10.9% following earnings/guidance...According to Reuters, Avago shows interest in Xilinx, Renesas, Maxim (http://reut.rs/1B0rq9i)...Asian indices are mixed despite strong rally on Wall St, where S&P500 closed at record highs and Treasuries stabilized after softer than expected PPI numbers led to expectations of a more benign Fed. Shanghai Composite is the biggest loser in the region - profit taking after an otherwise impressive week has set in as investors fret that strong demand for IPOs today would dilute the index valuations and detract from other securities. The selling was undeterred despite comments from Premier Li calling for measures to counter downside pressure on economy building from slowing fixed asset investment. Recall this week's data showed property investment growth slowing to a 6-year low. Korea's Kospi was also a notable decliner, reversing the opening gains after Bank of Korea policy decision saw no change in rates. BOK reiterated that output gap would persist for some time but was also somewhat more hawkish, noting economy is showing signs of recovery and sentiment has improved. Few big movers in Asia on numbers Nikon(7731)-12.5%, Sharp (6753) -7.5%, Dentsu (4324) +13.8%...

Nikkei +0.76% Hang Seng +0.32% Shnaghai -2%

Eur$ 1.1394 GBP 1.5769 EURCHF 1.0413 RUB 50.0985 JPY 119.47 WTI $59.70 (-0.3%)

S&P -0.02% EuroStoxx -0.25% Dax -0.19% SMI +1.116% ( catch up from yesterday - Swiss was closed)

Macro :
- French Mortgage Demand Has Surged in 2015, Les Echos Says
- China PBOC’s Zhou Meets With Russia Central Bank Governor
- IMF Sees Little Progress in Greek Talks, Mega TV Reports


Keep an eye on :
- ABG/P SM : Abengoa 1Q Net Falls 4.3% to EU31.2M
- AIR FP : Germany to Buy MEADS Missile System, Sueddeutsche Reports
- AGL IM : Autogrill stake could be sold in 2016 by Edizione - La Stampa
- BPM IM : Banco Popolare CEO says BPM preferred merger candidate-Il Sole 24 Ore
- European Telcos : EU to Keep Roaming Fees Even After Planned Abolishment: Bild
- GEO IM : Geox 1Q Ebitda Up 10.5%, Sees Further Profitability This Yr
- HAV FP : Dentsu +13% on numbers in Tokyo could help sentiment on sector
- ILD FP : Iliad 1Q Rev. Misses Ests., Confirms Ebitda Outlook
- LLOY LN : U.K. Could Sell All of Lloyds Within Year, Blackwell Says
- NHH SM : NH Hotels makes surprise bid for Una Hotels - Milano Finanza daily edition
- PUB FP : Dentsu +13% on numbers in Tokyo could help sentiment on sector
- SAL IM : Salini Impregilo 1Q Net EU48.2m vs EU15.2m Y/y
- STM FP : STM may sell off digital products division - Carlo Festa Blog http://carlofesta.blog.ilsole24ore.com/
- VED LN : Vedanta may soon launch debt recast plan, request for proposals invited from banks
- WDF IM : World Duty Free 2015 Rev., Adj. Ebitda Forecasts Ahead of Ests.
- WDF IM : Edizione denies Boyu Capital offer for World Duty Free had same conditions as Dufry bid - FT
- WPP LN : Dentsu +13% on numbers in Tokyo could help sentiment on sector

>>> Vedanta may soon launch debt recast plan, request for proposals invited from

Vedanta may soon launch debt recast plan, request for proposals invited from banks
S
UK-listed Vedanta Resources and its Indian arm Vedanta group may soon launch a debt refinancing exercise, The Economic Times reported, citing sources in-the-know.

The two companies have already invited request for proposals from banks, including Standard Chartered, Barclays, Citigroup, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs.

As per the report, the parent, Vedanta Resources, and its subsidiary companies, including India's Sesa Sterlite, have a combined debt of USD 16.2bn. It was also noted that the group is aiming to reduce its gearing from 40.8% to 25%, with the debt refinancing plan expected to proceed in several phases.

A significant portion of the debt that will be refinanced is in the parent Vedanta Resources and its power and aluminum business, the item noted. The paper also said an estimated USD 350m in loans is now in advanced stages for being refinanced. It was also reported the group will have another USD 2bn in convertibles and bonds mature in June-July of next year.

Unnamed investment banking sources were quoted as saying that the debt refinance may be a precursor to a merger between Vedanta India and Cairn India. One investment banking source further added that a debt restructuring is attractive for Vedanta at the current LIBOR rates.

In regards to a proposal by Vedanta to acquire the Government of India's residual stakes in Balco and Hindustan Zinc, one source was quoted as saying that it was still unclear at this stage whether the Indian government would approve the sale proposal.

Link to original source


Source The Economic Times

>>> NH Hotels makes surprise bid for Una Hotels

NH Hotels makes surprise bid for Una Hotels

NH Hotels, the Spanish hotel chain, has made an offer for Una Hotels, the privately held Italian hotel chain, Italian language daily Milano Finanza reported. The report cited sources close to the dossier who said that NH Hotels is bidding together with an institutional investor

The offer has come as a surprise, since Una Hotels is holding exclusive merger negotiations with Atahotels, the chain owned by Unipol-Sai, the insurance subsidiary of the Unipol financial services group. The report said that the Atahotels offer could be in the region of EUR 200m, but that the NH Hotels offer is believed to be higher.

There is no guarantee that the NH Hotels offer will re-open the race, as exclusive negotiations with Atahotels have been going on for months, the paper said.

As previously reported, Una Hotels has bank debts of EUR 500m, primarily owed to Unicredit, BMPS and Unipol, as previously reported. The report said the banks control Una via Fenice Holding.

Milano Finanza daily edition

>>> STMicroelectronics may sell off digital products division-Carlo Festa Blog

STMicroelectronics may sell off digital products division

STMicroelectronics, the listed Swiss-Italian electronic chip manufacturer, could sell off its digital products division, the Italian-language Carlo Festa blog reported. The report cited unspecified rumours noting that either a sale or a strategic partnership was an option.

The report said that the division is less profitable than the rest of STMicroelectronics.

STMicroelectronics has a market cap of EUR 6.4bn.

Link to original source

Carlo Festa Blog