TheChek News Flow

GFI Group Inc., an intermediary and provider of trading technologies and support services to the global OTC and listed markets, filed an SC 14D9/A document on Thursday evening with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in which it updated investors on its takeover situation.

An excerpt from page 10 of the filing follows:

'GFI has been approached by parties expressing interest in exploring transactions that could include a potential sale of GFI. The Board has authorized GFI management to explore these potential transactions as well as to engage in discussions with other parties that could lead to other potential transactions. The Board has not made a determination to enter into any transaction at this time or in the future, and there can be no assurances that any such transaction can or will be completed. GFI does not intend to provide updates unless and until the Board approves a specific transaction or otherwise determines that disclosure is appropriate or necessary.'

I. The success of the Plassat’s action plan:

1) Carrefour is up 47% since its nomination.

2) For year 2014 results was up 3,9% and EPS still increasing.

3) Moulin family increased its stake in Carrefour because of its confidence to the Plassat’s strategy.

4) Abilio Diniz wants to rise its stake in the Brazil Carrefour branch after acquiring 10% of the capital.

II. We continue to believe Carrefour is undervalued:

1) One of the best momentum in the sector.

2) Guidance was confirmed and we expect a good development in Plassat’s strategy (Carmila, Dia, on-line sales and emerging markets).

3) A full break up of its operations could be an upside.

4) Brazil continue to trade well (57 stores opening in progress, sales growth increased) and we expect an IPO for the Brazil branch this year.

5) Carrefour trades on P/E at 16.3 x, 10% discount to the sector and below its historical P/E.

>>> Delhaize

1) Delhaize enjoyed a stronger USD.

2) The Q4 strong results has been already priced.

II. We continue to believe Delhaize is overvalued:

1) Belgium market disappointed (market share down and strikes not resolved and doesn't appear reachable immediatly).

2) The growth was driven by the strenghtening of the USD and the growth in the US.

3) Q4 2014 operating margin was lower than expected.

4) Delahize trades on a P/E at 15.9x, above its historical P/E.

1. Some 67% of Euro mobile subscribers would surf more (download more data, and by default spend more) if wireless network quality / speed improved. 

This feedback applied in particular to the Italian market (80% would surf more, pending network quality) - positive news considering that Vodafone Italy's mobile service revenues are ca 45% off their peak. We believe that network quality will improve across Europe, driven by LTE, network densification, new spectrum release etc. - this phenomenon should trigger better European service revenue growth trends (positive growth by year-end 2015, vs -9% in Q4 13).

2. European wireless subscribers would be willing to pay a premium of 10%-20% (per month) for improved coverage and speed. 

We believe that this bodes well for best networks (EE in UK, Deutsche Telekom in Germany, Orange in France), but also for Vodafone as it improves its network via Project Spring. Again, Italian wireless users stood out from the pack - willing to pay the greatest premium for network quality, an incremental +20% per month.

3. Mobile customers remain very price sensitive - however, encouragingly, 30% of users would switch operator for better network quality. 

Price remains the main consumer consideration (for ca 61% of mobile subscribers) when making a wireless purchase. However, as we exit the Great Recession in Europe, we expect an increased focus on network quality (speeds, coverage, 4G), over price.

4. Vodafone's customers are 'less satisfied' than the incumbents / market leaders in the UK and Germany - but Vodafone has taken a lead with consumers in Italy. 

We believe that Project Spring should address some of Vodafone's customer satisfaction issues in the UK and Germany - and may help Vodafone Italy to extend a network perception advantage.

We maintain Attractive view on Euro Telcos (LTE, consolidation, DPS yield). Our favourite stocks include Vodafone (revenue growth, op leverage, DPS yield of >4.5%), KPN (FCF doubles by 19e), Telenor (DPS yield >5.5%), TDC

(Danish consolidation, 16e EFCF yld: ca 8.5%), Com Hem (16e EFCF yld: ca 8%), Liberty Global and Talk Talk. We remain cautious on Belgacom and TeliaSonera.

Only 46% of companies beat earnings estimates so far this quarter, well below the historical average of 53% (see Chart 3). In contrast, sales results showed the third consecutive month of improvement, with 56% of firms posting Beats. However, it may still be too early to draw conclusions: only 19% of firms have reported so far

Since the start of this earnings season, 2014 consensus EPS growth has fallen to 0.5% from 2.6% (see Chart 1). 2015 expectations have similarly become more pessimistic; EPS growth is expected at 8.3%, down from 10.6% at the start of the season (see Chart 7). Pressure on earnings expectations appears justified: despite our economists revising up 2015 Eurozone GDP expectations by 20bp post-ECB surprise, a fall in nominal GDP in both the Eurozone and the US moving from 2014 to 2015 is expected (see Chart 2).

• Sectors: best are Tech (88%), Oil & Gas (71%) and Financials (58%); worst are Healthcare (21%), Consumer Goods (23%) and Industrials (29%)

• Countries: best are Denmark (71%), Netherlands (63%) and Sweden (52%); worst are Switzerland (18%), Spain (29%) and the UK (36%)

Le Rafale sur le point d'obtenir son premier contrat export ? L'information en fera sourire plus d'un tant elle a déjà été annoncée puis démentie. Mais pourtant, le bébé se présente plutôt très bien avec… l'Egypte. Paris et Le Caire sont sur le point de converger sur un plan de financement de contrats portant sur 24 exemplaires de l'avion de combat de Dassault et une frégate multimission Fremm, affirme-t-on de sources convergentes. Montant de l'opération : entre 5 et 6 milliards d'euros, mais le chiffre pourrait être inférieur tout comme le nombre d'appareils, laissait-on entendre hier soir.

Tout a démarré à l'automne, en marge de la dernière assemblée générale des Nations unis quand le maréchal Abdel Fattah Al Sissi a approché François Hollande. L'homme fort de l'Egypte a alors fait part au président français de son souhait d'acquérir des Rafale et des Fremm. Et vite, puisque le maréchal souhait faire défiler quelques appareils à l'occasion de l'inauguration en août de l'agrandissement du canal de Suez. Une délégation égyptienne est ensuite venue à Paris en fin d'année démarrer les négociations, puis ce sont les PDG de Dassault, DCNS (pour la partie maritime), et MBDA (missiles) qui se sont rendus au Caire il y a peu.

Si le volet industriel ne pose pas de gros soucis en tant que tel, le plan de financement, en revanche, est vite apparu comme un point bloquant, étant donné la situation économique et budgétaire très tendue du pays. Les demandes financières des Egyptiens ont également compliqué l'affaire dans la mesure ou ces derniers demandaient que la France (donc le contribuable) garantisse entre 80 et 90 % du montant des contrats hors acompte. Réponse du Trésor : « d'accord pour vous aider à financer une partie, mais une partie seulement. A vous de compléter le financement ».

« L'Etat prend un risque »

La situation était à ce point complexe que certains pensaient que le Caire n'aurait d'autres choix que de réviser à la baisse ses demandes ou la taille de sa commande (« Les Echos » du 20 janvier). Tel n'a pas été le cas visiblement. Arrivée en début de semaine à Paris, la délégation égyptienne a maintenu son souhait d'une grosse vingtaine de Rafale et d'une frégate. Mais elle a accepté de mettre un peu plus de sa poche, au point que la garantie de la Coface porterait désormais sur environ 50 % des contrats, ce que l'Etat aurait ou serait sur le point d'accepter.

« A ce niveau, c'est inhabituel. L'Etat prend un risque », reconnaît un spécialiste de l'exportation d'armement. Mais pour Paris, l'exportation du Rafale est impérative : pour soulager la commande nationale, la loi de programmation militaire prévoit que 40 des 66 Rafale produits de 2016 à 2019 soient exportés, dont 7 dès 2016 !

Si elle est bien avancée, la négociation avec l'Egypte n'est pas encore terminée. Une fois le plan de financement bouclé (ainsi que des questions relatives à l'usage des Rafale), ce qui est possible cette semaine, un pool bancaire devra être constitué. Y figureront probablement BNPParibas, Société Générale ou Crédit Agricole. Les banques sont partantes indique-t-on, même si le diable sera dans les détails contractuels.

Il faudra ensuite signer les contrats, mais surtout franchir l'étape décisive : le paiement de l'acompte. On évoque un demi milliard, là encore une somme plus élevée que d'habitude et pour cause. Les Egyptiens étant pressés, la frégate sera prise sur le quota de la marine française. Elle est donc déjà quasi achevée. De même, pour que des Rafale puissent voler cet été au-dessus de Suez, il faudra se servir sur ceux qui sont les plus avancés sur la chaîne de Dassault. C'est donc lors du paiement de l'acompte qu'il sera possible de vérifier que Le Caire a trouvé les moyens de ses ambitions. Avec le soutien de quelques-uns de ses pays amis, comme l'Arabie saoudite ?

Cette étape franchie, et celle-là seulement, l'Egypte sera alors le premier client du Rafale, après avoir été le premier client du Mirage 2000. C'était en 1981.

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Bouygues veut être le champion de la 4G. L’opérateur télécom, qui couvre 71% de la population en très haut débit mobile, multiplie les innovations pour faire la différence avec ses concurrents. Après la 4G+ proposée aujourd’hui par tous les opérateurs,Bouygues lance le chantier de la 4G++ qui devrait être disponible à la fin de l'année.

La 4G++ c'est beaucoup mieux que la 4G - qui a déjà séduit environ 10 millions de français - et que la 4G+, mais un peu moins bien que la 5G, qui, elle, ne sera pas disponible avant 2020.En attendant, donc, Bouygues propose la 4G++. Concrètement, elle permet de télécharger des données beaucoup plus vite et est ainsi particulièrement appropriée aux clients de Bouygues friands de vidéos, un usage qui explose chez tous les opérateurs.

La 4G++ va offrir un débit allant jusqu’à 330 megabits par seconde, contre 150 megabits pour la 4G standard.«C’est une première en France», précise Jean-Paul Arzel, directeur des réseaux de l'opérateur.Si Bouygues parvient aujourd’hui à un tel résultat, c’est parce qu’il est le seul opérateur à pouvoir agréger trois bandes de fréquences à la fois en 4G (800, 1800 et 2600 megahertz).Pour y accéder, l’abonné devra posséder un smartphone compatible 4G++. La généralisation de cette technologie en France, à partir de fin 2015, va prendre plusieurs années et nécessiter plusieurs centaines de millions d’investissements.

Un coup d'avance sur les concurrents

L’enjeu pour l’opérateur c’est d’avoir un coup d’avance sur Orange, SFR et Free. Depuis début 2014, où il a tenté, en vain, de racheter SFR, Bouygues déploie une stratégie très agressive pour se faire une place sur ce marché à quatre opérateurs.Dans le mobile il veut être le référent de la 4G, à l’heure où l’on constate une explosion des usages mobiles un peu partout dans le monde. Rien de tel donc que de multiplier les initiatives pour s’imposer auprès des clients.

Et à ce petit jeu,force est de constater que Bouygues a pris de l’avance. Cet après-midi, il a même fait de Chartres la ville la plus rapide de France en 4G+! «En 4G, le débit offert au client est lié à la largeur du spectre. A Chartres, on a pu avoir 35 megahertz en 4G en agrégeant deux bandes de fréquences.Or Orange ne peut en avoir que 30, SFR 25 et Free 20», explique Jean-Paul Arzel. Résultat, la ville est devenue la seule de France où la 4G+ atteint 260 megabits par secondes, contre un maximum de 220 megabits habituellement.

Et ce n’est pas tout. Pour cette année, Bouygues entend aussi proposer, sans supplément de prix, la technologie VoLTE à ses abonnés,surtout disponible en Corée et au Japon. Aujourd’hui,un client 4G ne bénéficie du très haut débit mobile que lorsqu’il surfe sur internet, pas lorsqu’il passe un appel car il bascule automatiquement en 3G ou en 2G. Cela prend 6 à 7 secondes. Or, à partir du second semestre, avec le VoLTE,il n’y aura plus que 2 à 3 secondes de délai.Autant dire que l’appel sera quasi instantané. Le client pourra en outre continuer à regarder des vidéos, tout en recevant un appel. Là encore, cela nécessite d’avoir un smartphone adapté. La bataille de la 4G, plutôt axée sur les services ces derniers mois,repart désormais de plus belle sur la puissance du débit

{http://ciceromagazine.com/features/show-me-the-terrorists-money-easier-said-than-done/}

The Business of ISIS is Business

A comparison of ISIS and Al Qaeda’s initial revenue-generating strategies shows they both shared similar hierarchical structures in their early days and were dependent largely on outside donations. Both have since outgrown their dependence on outside funding and moved into generating their own revenue. Al Qaeda’s finances have never been as impressive as what ISIS has amassed in a much shorter time period. The former’s “franchise” model necessitated “Al Qaeda Core” provide seed-funding to its affiliates, which were then encouraged to become self-sufficient thereafter. In contrast, ISIS remains a largely centralized and amalgamated organization that seeks to establish an “Islamic State.”

In order to achieve economic independence, for example, ISIS-predecessor Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) sold stolen goods to make up the bulk of their earnings in 2005-2006, followed by car sales, transfers from other Al Qaeda affiliates, “spoils”–revenue generated from the pillaging of “apostates”–and, last, donations from ideological supporters. Al Qaeda’s fractured, flat structure necessitates crafty income generation, even going so far as committing identity theft, stealing credit card data, and engaging in small scale financial fraud. There is little evidence that Al Qaeda has ever been able to generate significant income from illicit oil sales the way ISIS does.

ISIS boasts an elaborate network of oil fields and refineries it has taken by force that allow it to pump upwards of 25,000 barrels per day. That oil is sold at a discount from the market rate ($25-$60 per barrel), given that the group cannot sell it on any legitimate market. While the oil must be transported, routed around checkpoints, and otherwise smuggled through contested territory at times, vast profits are still earned given that the cost of production for ISIS is so low. ISIS does not have to pay taxes or to lease or purchase the fields, nor did it have to invest in the building of refineries or infrastructure. It simply stole them. While Al Qaeda’s more piecemeal approach to revenue generation does not bring in the same amount that ISIS does, its flattened structure makes it more difficult to disrupt. ISIS operates out in the open in comparison to Al Qaeda, and disrupting its main source of income–oil revenue—may be an easier task than tracking VIN numbers of Al Qaeda’s illicit car sales.

Turning off the Taps

Extremist groups can make as much money as they desire. But if they cannot move it or spend it, operational capacity to cause harm and motivate members will drastically decrease. Identifying, seizing, and blocking the transfer of funds across regulated banks are obvious ways of achieving this. Over the last ten years, much emphasis has also been placed on hawala networks that exist for expatriates to send money home from working abroad, but which are also used to move funds for terrorism. They are discreet, hard to trace, and almost completely unregulated. Hawaladeers have been used to move small to medium size cash amounts to fund terror operations. But when one looks at the way ISIS and Al Qaeda earn their money, hawala may not be a relevant place to look for the majority of monetary movement.

Looking again at how AQI made most of its money at the height of its power in Iraq–mostly through selling stolen property–it becomes clear that cash for local or regional terror operations does not need to be transferred via banks or remittance networks over thousands of miles and instead can be packed in the back of a pickup truck and driven to its destination without a trace. But operations across international borders, such as the Al Qaeda-engineered 9/11 attacks, required frequent movements of operational funds across the globe which, after the fact, created a trail for investigators to follow.

In contrast to Al Qaeda, as yet ISIS has not focused on funding large international terrorist attacks and has instead concentrated on consolidating an “Islamic State” in Iraq and Syria, though other lone individuals and groups—such as those committing the recent Ottawa and Paris attacks—have pledged allegiance to it. ISIS is not making large volumes of electronic international monetary transfers that can be traced or interdicted as with Al Qaeda, who had and has affiliates or cells to fund. Both groups have outgrown dependence on large transfers from outside benefactors and are now generating their own revenue streams. ISIS is spending its money on conventional military operations within its territory and its media propaganda machine and is making the majority of its money from the sale of a valuable commodity—oil—for which it receives cash in hand at the point of sale, much as its predecessor AQI did for much less-lucrative sales of stolen goods. Interdicting such direct sales for cash in lawless territory is difficult or impossible.

Other sources of income for ISIS are just as difficult to stop. ISIS fighters have been setting up checkpoints in commercial centers where vehicles are forced to pay whatever they may have to the group. The victims are told they are paying an Islamic charity tax–zakat—and the money is going directly into ISIS’ coffers. ISIS racketeering networks have hobbled businesses within their territory much as organized crime syndicates have operated for decades. ISIS demands money from businesses with threats of violence if they do not pay up. In Mosul alone, a city that seems to play a central role in the racketeering game, the amount adds up to roughly $1 million a month in revenue for the group.

While Al Qaeda may be dealing with an identity crisis given ISIS’ rapid and forceful maturation into a much stronger competitor, it does not mean that its ability to create chaos is diminished. Western means of waging financial war come down to sanctions and freezing of funds. However, both Al Qaeda and ISIS are well-practiced at working around the denial of access to legitimate commercial markets and banks. Blocking ISIS and Al Qaeda from the international banking system and markets is effective, but they have found ways to work around the restrictions. Tracking down other means, such as hawala transfers, is painstaking and relatively fruitless given that both groups’ fundraising has outgrown sole reliance on outside donations requiring cash transfers. And, in the case of ISIS, the group is holding much of its funds close to its chest for its regional operations, rather than attempting to disperse it as seed-money to affiliates worldwide or to fund international terrorist attacks.

The destruction or denial of the physical assets terrorist groups depend upon for financing is another way to interrupt their revenue stream. However, recent attempts to disrupt ISIS financing by bombing oil refineries may have provided the group with a huge PR win, making it possible to frame the debate as “infidels” and “crusaders” trying to starve the people of needed energy. It also causes setbacks for the government in Baghdad which will have to rebuild destroyed oil infrastructure once—if ever—the ISIS threat is dealt with. That will be expensive and time consuming.

As Louise Shelley points out, destroying ISIS’ oil assets means they would likely shift to the other, less overt means of revenue generation such as Al Qaeda has depended upon. While this may stem the flow of ISIS’ cash, it carries its own new problems. ISIS has already amassed a large amount of capital—more than Al Qaeda has ever had. However, without its own boots on the ground or strong local partner forces that can disrupt localized, cash-based oil sales or extortion rings in ISIS territory, much of ISIS’ income is protected from outside interdiction. Disrupting ISIS’ financing is not as easy as it sounds.

La Tribune. What is your analysis of structural and cyclical components of the falling price of oil?

Philippe Boisseau. The fundamentals of the global market for oil and gas have not really changed. Why such a sharp decline? The main explanation is, firstly, to the faster than expected growth of oil production from the United States and, on the other hand, an anticipation of the fall in demand due to the slowdown in global economy. The operators fear excess supply on the market, estimated 1 to 2 million barrels per day. In this context, the balance will depend on their investments. If they suddenly stopped investing, production would decline very quickly, on the order of 5% per year. This represents about 4 million barrels per day less. We should then face an imbalance in favor of the offer with no doubt a sharp rise of oil. This yo-yo phenomenon is not good for anyone. To recoup more complex projects, it is best to return to the average price that we have experienced in the past three years. The equation is not easy to solve.

Do you have an estimate of the rise in oil prices?

The question is not at what price it will go up. But when? There are many factors to consider. The oil price decline is expected to continue for some time, but it is a relatively short-term phenomenon. The barrel is expected to recover fairly quickly to its equilibrium price (between 100 and 110 dollars, Editor's note).

 

 

That is to say?

I do not have a crystal ball. The speed of the rise in price will depend on the reaction of all oil producers, to recovery or not the growth in consumption in Asia and China in particular. The parameters are too numerous to predict exactly when prices ascend.

What do you think of the famous conspiracy theory that has circulated in Davos, like what the United States and Saudi Arabia wanted to punish Russia?

I'm not a fan of conspiracy theory. The phenomenon we are talking about is economic. It is linked to the functioning of the market.

But Saudi Arabia does not want to regulate shale oil industry in the United States?

I do not believe in that. The market clearing prices are high prices. At 50 dollars a barrel, a number of smaller US companies will stop producing. But as soon as the price of oil will rise, production recovers. A producer countries for which oil is an essential part of its resources, can not intentionally reduce income if, deep down, that's not solve anything.

King Abdullah's death she will change the situation in the oil market?

The Salman King once said that the oil policy of the Kingdom would remain unchanged. This series, which was moreover organized long, should not change the situation in the energy field.

What is the impact of lower oil prices on investment?

With a barrel to $ 50, it is clear that all oil companies must adapt and reassess their investment policy. Very large projects that are already underway, are naturally difficult to stop. But there is some leeway on a number of shorter-term investments, eg drilling in mature fields where production is declining. This type of investment will slow sharply, for the simple reason that they are no longer profitable. There will be a clear impact in 2015 for all the oil companies that will significantly reduce their expenses. This will mean a decrease in the overall production of all global oil companies. When the balance is recovered, investments generally resume their pace. For 2015, Total plans to reduce his 10%.

She will oil prices declining revive a price war at the pump in France and elsewhere?

Globally, in all countries where prices are liberalized, competition is already very strong. Its intensity does not weaken with falling oil prices. It's the same in France. However, in countries where the price of oil is subsidized and where prices are regulated, states may use the opportunity of the fall of the price of oil to reduce their subsidies, which have a huge budgetary cost. A number of countries are going to take this down to consolidate their public finances.

And France?

France is simply one of the most competitive markets in Europe! Supermarkets it holds 62% market share. Its logic is to sell at very low margins or almost zero, to attract consumers in its rays. Total is competing with distributors that petroleum products are only calling products. Again, the decline of the barrel does not affect competition. The pump prices are falling and it's good news for the French driver, even if the fees and the collapse of the euro limited the decline.

What is the outcome of Total Access?

The picture is more positive than 600,000 customers now come every day to fill in a Total station Access! The Access Total stations have enabled our network to gain more market share two points in two years. This is the first time in 30 years that the share of the retail market is declining. Basically, it was a bold gamble: to offer prices among the lowest in the market while maintaining a high quality of products and services available in these resorts. This is what makes us different. This model works because we managed to attract many more motorists and triple our sales volumes. This project continues to develop but, beyond their concern about fuel prices, our clients also express other things. It is listening to them as we modernize our network of service stations.

An example?

Motorists will find Wi-Fi from next summer in all total stations in France. More broadly, we are rethinking our network in depth and will make it evolve into thinking our customers and seeking to meet their needs. Total stations Access welcome mostly individuals, who want to enjoy competitive prices. Then there are those who travel, especially professionals, who will find a range of services adapted in all our stations on motorways and main roads they travel daily. We want to adapt the characteristics of all our stations to the specific needs of our customers.

Where does your new concept, Total Contact.

Actually. Contact the Total petrol station, it will be a little close to home station, the station where guests will be able to find the local services they need: bread, newspapers, relay package ... We will develop this concept gradually and primarily in rural or suburban areas, where it meets a real need. The choice of stations that we will transform will be studied case by case, depending on the location and fueling requirements for each location. We will open at least one this year and more in 2016, with the aim of reaching a network of hundreds of stations then.

The manager of a station he may substitute for the state by providing state services such as selling stamps?

It is not envisaged. We wish merely to provide services to our clients who express a need. We have a very pragmatic approach. Our business is not an exact science. Before launching Total Access, we have conducted tests to find the winning formula. Contact with Total, is the same. I can not tell you what will be the winning formula, but I can tell you that a need exists and we want to respond. This is an interesting business opportunity: Total has no equivalent in France in the territorial network: 9 out of 10 French now live within 10 kilometers of a total station. It is also an opportunity for us to extend the life of plants, some of which are in difficulty. Our interest joins that of our customers.

What will the station tomorrow?

The proposed energy mix in our future stations will probably be a little wider. Our resorts probably welcome a number of electric charging stations, but the electric car market is expected to remain a city market. In ten years, these vehicles will be used mainly for urban or peri-urban journeys. Motorists recharge their cars at the office, the supermarket for shopping, or mostly at home at night. But it is unlikely to come spend an hour at a gas station to recharge their car, even though we would be happy to accommodate them. It's the same for hydrogen, which is an energy whose potential is really promising, but remains underdeveloped by car manufacturers. We experience this technology also in hydrogen stations in Germany. These are activities that will develop very gradually. Total is watching over these developments and experiments with all the new innovations that will bring real value to our customers. Because in 10, 20 or 30 years, the service station will always respond to the needs that will be those of our customers.

What then account?

What matters, for example, is to meet the digital needs of increasingly connected clients. This notion is growing considerably. More and more customers are asking us to pay by phone, pay without contact, to have real-time information coming home on the availability of plant products. In addition, customers who choose the Total application, for example, will be there waiting at the pump or in the wash. It is this type of relationship with the customer is going to develop. The future station is a station connected to clients.

There are less and less in town stations. Is it inevitable?

The closure of stations in a number of cities, including Paris, is becoming a big problem to individual customers or professionals to get fuel. For example, there in Paris a desire to limit the renewal of concessions granted to service stations. This pushes Total and our competitors to close stations. The number of stations in Paris was divided by three in ten years, from 235 to only 67 stations. This is a real issue, with consequences sometimes a bit confusing. The scarcity of outlets in Paris pushes drivers to drive longer to go full swing. This is not good for reducing traffic and therefore pollution.

Is the closure of refineries in France and Europe, too, inevitable?

The Group has pledged not to close any industrial site in France. In refining, where there is overcapacity, Total is considering converting some of our activities for sustainable sites. And to be sustainable, it must be profitable. You have to have a vision on this subject. Given the policy of all the European countries on the taxation of petroleum products, all manufacturers have gradually decreased consumption of their models. This is also a strong demand of their clients: they develop hybrid engines and lighten the weight of cars with materials more lightweight. Cars therefore consume less from year to year. This trend will continue. In ten years, half of all new vehicles sold in Europe will be hybrid vehicles. Our responsibility is to adapt to a need that is shrinking.

Are you satisfied with the activity of your Marketing & Services business in 2014?

The year 2014 was not easy, with a generally poorer than expected economic conditions in the world, and we had one of the warmest years of the century. Unfavorable conditions to sales of heating oil or LPG. In this context, activity Marketing & Services has successfully weathered and even performed to finish 2014 in line with our goals. We are pursuing an aggressive growth strategy, primarily organic, by focusing on areas of high growth. This is the case of Africa, for example. We are now a leader in the distribution of fuels in particular, and we have the ambition to double it in size by 5 years. By 2020, the African demand for petroleum products also exceed that of the old continent and we are perfectly positioned to capture this growth.

What will the energy mix proposed by Total in 2050?

The evolution of the group will reflect changes in the global energy mix. In the long term, the overall demand for energy on our planet is such that we will need all the energy, whether conventional, non-conventional and renewable. Hydrocarbons will therefore remain present in large proportions in a mix that will, in turn, more diversified. So I guess still mainly Total hydrocarbon producer, but I hope, with a share of renewable energy (solar and biomass) significantly higher.

Exactly, what are the prospects of the solar?

The growth of the solar sector has accelerated. We expect, for at least the next five years to come, a solar energy use increased by 12% per year. This growth is even much stronger than what we imagined in our initial forecasts. Moreover, for five years, market figures have continued to exceed our growth forecasts. Meanwhile, SunPower has shown impressive efficacy in reducing production costs making solar competitive with conventional energy sources now in over twenty countries worldwide. Today, the sun is profitable without subsidy.

Which countries?

These are all countries where the cost of a complete solar power plant is simply paid by savings in gas or oil carried by producing solar. Countries where there is sun but where electricity is expensive because it is produced from diesel or imported LNG, as in Chile or South Africa ... Why? The production cost of solar power is directly comparable to those of traditional power plants. Gains in savings in fuel oil or gas generated by a solar power plant are therefore crucial. Just like Saudi Arabia, which burns a lot of fuel.

And for rooftop installations?

In the price of electricity, a consumer pays the costs of production and distribution to bring electricity to his home. Take the example of California: while gas is cheap, distribution costs are high. This makes it profitable for an individual client to install solar panels on its roof and produce electricity rather than bringing energy to it by the network. It is for this reason that solar is also growing rapidly in the United States, while the price of gas is low. Put solar panels on the roofs, today is profitable in the United States.

Which is not quite the case in France?

In France, it is another problem. France suffers from several difficulties just slow down the development of solar energy. The first is rather good news for the French: the production of electricity is not cheap. In contrast, three other obstacles could be removed through government action. Above all, the solar sector needs urgent label. When you buy today solar panels with a life span of 25 years, you have only the word of the manufacturer or installer for you the guarantee. If your panel will stop producing after 10 years, you make a considerable loss since the profitability of the project is calculated over 25 years. It is therefore essential to create an independent body that can guarantee the quality of the panels. We plead with the authorities, particularly in Europe, for the establishment of a genuine label that would apply to the entire industry and help customers know what they are buying. For now, the consumer protection is slow to develop, while the failure rate due to poor quality panels continues to increase. This is a real handicap to the development of solar, in France as in the rest of Europe.

And the other two problems?

The other two problems are French exceptions. The first is the connection time of a solar system's network of ERDF which are much too long. This period is often amounts to more than a year, while in Germany it is only 6 or 7 weeks. This results in significant capital costs of the capital committed by individuals or professionals. The second difficulty is related to the still relatively marginal solar in France. There is no transparency on panels installation conditions or efficiency in the organization of this sector. You have to work on improving the training of installers and transparency of costs. For everything that does not help to make the industry more competitive. When the same panel after installing back twice more in France than in Germany, you have to ask ...

Solar Will it not simply against the business model of ERDF?

This is the case in France as in the rest of the world. It is clear that solar development faces the "business models" of electricity distribution companies, which have had trouble monetize their network with the rise of this new energy. But the movement that occurs in the United States is very interesting. Today, electricity distribution companies, after resisting, realized that this change was inevitable. So it was better to think about how to accompany him, by putting the customer side, rather than go against their interests. In Europe, EON in Germany, for example, follow this movement. Electricity distributors will gradually begin to integrate solar as an inevitable given the evolution of their "business model" because customers request them.

Ségolène Royal she aware of the difficulties of the solar market?

I believe that thinking progresses in France on the subject. The establishment of an effective labeling would be a breakthrough.

Including in the rates?

The measures that were recently taken by the government to change the system of tariffs with electricity sale device produced by renewable at market price, together with a variable subsidy in the right direction . They avoid too heavy a burden of subsidies and are entering a market logic in the solar. We need it because the real challenge of the solar lies in its ability to grow and be profitable without supports.

What is the total market share in solar?

The solar industry is a real challenge for Total. We weigh 3% of the global solar market in terms of installed capacity. For comparison, our hydrocarbon production represents 1.5% of the global market. We are the world's No. 2 solar by turnover. This is a good start, right? This means that Total believes in it and we have achieved with SunPower, an investment to the size of this market. We have built and operate in California Solar Star project. It is the largest solar farm in the world with a capacity of 700 MW, is the equivalent of a nuclear power plant. Today, Total produces solar electricity including the United Arab Emirates, Chile, South Africa ...

In terms of production capacity?

We are located around 10th place, our order books are full and we plan with SunPower to triple our production capacity by 5 years. The difference is that today most solar players are not built like Total. We are now the only player in the global market to evolve as an integrated operator, research and development in photovoltaics to the management of electrical resource of a habitation, through design large solar power plants.

Why have yielded Solar Star?

At the time, Total should have invested significant amounts at a time when SunPower and the entire industry through a difficult period. We had already put a lot of money in SunPower, nearly $ 1.3 billion. So we sold Solar Star to a company owned by Warren Buffet, while continuing to ensure the construction of the plant which will be delivered by the end of 2015. Today, we remain operator of Solar Star. Times have changed. SunPower, that has been developing a real mastery and expertise in building large-scale solar projects now creates much more value by not handing over projects after their entry into service, or even co-owner of the remaining projects during exploitation.

Do you intend to go up to 100% of SunPower?

Maintain a part of SunPower capital market has a real virtue. For two reasons. First, these companies are only effective if they are managed according to the "business model" of Silicon Valley. The reactivity of SunPower to lower costs is related to the management style that is based on "incentives" (premiums, note) given to staff in shares. The stock performance of SunPower are considerable leverage to the company manager. That is why we have not gone 100% at the beginning and that we are 60%. We wanted to preserve that culture was the guarantee of the success of SunPower. There is a second reason related to the nature of the asset that is not part of the traditional business of the group. The price of SunPower action allows us to have an outdoor performance measurement of its activity. This is fundamental to know where we stand.

What is Total's growth strategy in the sun?

The basis of our strategy, there is the technology of SunPower. It is very, very ahead of the rest of the competition. Our solar cells are the most efficient in the world. Our factories produce cells that convert 25% of sunlight into electricity, when the rest of the industry is 17%. An advantage such that for us to grow other than by organic growth would be meaningless. We recently launched the construction of a new plant in the Philippines cells which will be commissioned in the third quarter of 2015. It will help with other projects to boost our production capacity in the coming years. I remind you that we want to triple our production in 5 years.

What will be the impact of your new factory in the Philippines?

This 400 MW plant will enable Total to increase its production capacity by 40% in the full year. Our order books are full today with our current capabilities. This plant will be good!

All of your activities in renewable energy are they profitable?

Today the sun, which makes money, offsets the biotechnology activity, which is a research activity in which we invest this time. The whole thus is in equilibrium.

What are the next challenges for the solar industry?

There is always an economic challenge. We must keep an extremely strong reaction capability because the solar operators are rapidly changing. We must reduce costs in all areas: in the cells, which represent only a third of the overall cost, but also in the installation. Financially, Total must have access to the US financial structures that lend at very low capital cost and on which SunPower's competitors are based. Access to this type of cheap financing is important for the development of solar energy.

And technologically? Storage?

SunPower is positioned on two particular needs. He first to customer service, that is to say, manager customer energy needs in a home. More and more customers are asking what helps them optimize their consumption with intelligent management systems. This is clearly a direction that SunPower wants to develop. Storage of electricity, which finds its place in this new demand.

When you think you have a high-performance storage system?

Technically soon. Economically, in the years to come. Technologies will emerge very quickly because there are now countries and US states that fund projects. For example, Germany does. I think a cost effective and efficient system should come in about five years. It's tomorrow and Total wants to be at this appointment. We have also initiated cooperation with five startups that develop five different storage technologies. The challenge is to develop storage systems at competitive costs. SunPower also invests in start-ups, which can manage customer demand.

The arrival of these high-performance storage systems he will suddenly transform the global solar market?

No, for two reasons. The impact will be gradual, remaining storage costs still high. Before combining storage and solar will provide a truly cost effective solution compared to traditional power generation means, it will happen a number of years. Today, the sun represents 1% of the world's electricity and even with a growth of 12% per year, it will represent the end of the decade 2% or 3%. And in 2030, maybe 10% or 11%. That's good, but it is not yet the big night. Energy is a long-term industry, which needs time. With a little patience and according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), solar could be the first source of electricity generation in the world by 2050.

Biotechnology, including biomass, what is your strategy?

We build our model by walking, like what we did in solar. We have invested there a few years in Amyris, a start-up can caliornienne through genetically modified yeast to transform sugar into basic molecules for fuels and chemicals. Amyris managed to produce green oil reproducing, a few weeks what nature has put tens of millions of years to do. This technology has many applications. It enables the development of biofuels, lubricants, additives for tires, but also perfumes, cosmetics or vaccines ...

Do you hope to develop a competitive biofuel?

At the end of the year we will have a biokerosene around 3 to $ 4 per liter in production cost. It is still too expensive in comparison fuel "classic" it should also be halved given the taxes. However, there are a number of airlines that are interested in this product. Air France flew once a week a Paris-Toulouse with our biokerosene. To be competitive, we must aim for a liter below 1 dollar. We are currently building an industrial roadmap which aims to reduce the production cost of $ 1 per liter by 2020. It is available commercially by the end of the decade. That is to say, in not very long. It is our ambition.

Amyris and she will be profitable?

We are at the beginning of the story. Amyris develops already commercially in areas such as cosmetics and fragrances, competitive activities that relate him money. Amyris is at a stage of development where commercial activity on products with high added value is growing and compensates the financing needs in R & D of the company. However, we expect to break even next year in terms of cash.