2015-03-26 21:38:42.575 GMT
By Robin Stringer
(Bloomberg) -- Banco Popolare, Banca Popolare dell’Emilia
Romagna, Banca Carige most likely candidates for merger, Reuters
reports, citing two people familiar.
* Popolare di Milano not immediately available for comment to
Reuters
* All other banks declined to comment to Reuters
Link to Story: http://reut.rs/1NeHqvL
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After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: VJET +12.9%, STRI +12%, OXM +10.1%, OGXI +5%, DGSE +4.3%, MARA +3.2%, NVEE +3.1%, NERV +3%, GEVO +0.4%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: DF +2.4% (entered into a new $450 mln senior secured revolving credit facility), YHOO +2.0% (disclosed its Board approved an additional $2 bln share repurchase program), CCL +1.1% (entered into strategic partnerships with Fincantieri S.p.A and Meyer Werft to add nine cruise ships to its fleet from 2019 to 2022), SRC +0.5% (appointed Phil Joseph as Chief Financial Officer; current CFO, Michael A. Bender, to become Chief Accounting Officer)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: GME -5.3%, RH -5.1%, REED -3.6%, UPLD -0.3%, NEWT -0.1%,
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: TPVG -5.0% (co estimates that the net asset value of its common stock on March 26, 2015 is between $14.45 per share and $14.55 per share), JMI -4.3% (declared a monthly dividend of $0.09/share vs. prior dividend of $0.12/share), CWEI -2.3% (announced that Mel G. Riggs has succeeded Clayton W. Williams, Jr. as President, effective immediately), OFC -0.3% (filed for ~3.86 mln share offering of common shares of beneficial interest by selling shareholders)
Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Settles Below 100-Day Moving Average
The major averages ended Thursday with modest losses after climbing off their opening lows. The S&P 500 shed 0.2% and settled below its 100-day moving average (2,057) while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) underperformed.
Equity indices could not avoid registering their fourth consecutive decline, but they were able to avoid settling on their lows. Still, the benchmark index will enter the Friday session down 2.5% for the week.
The market began the day under pressure after overnight reports revealed that coalition forces from ten countries, led by Saudi Arabia, carried out air strikes against rebel forces in Yemen. This followed yesterday's reports indicating Yemen's President Hadi fled his country by sea.
The news gave a boost to the dollar, but the yen also rallied against its peers, which signaled caution among participants in the foreign exchange market. The Dollar Index (97.36, +0.38) gained 0.4% as the greenback spiked 0.8% against the euro, sending the single currency from a morning high near 1.1050 to 1.0880. For its part, the dollar/yen pair slipped 0.3% to 119.20 after testing the 118.50 level in the morning.
In addition, the latest developments in the Middle East led to concerns about potential disruptions to the energy market. As a result, crude oil surged 4.6% to $51.43/bbl. However, the energy sector (-0.2%) could not make it out of the red.
Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical sectors ended in mixed fashion. Consumer discretionary (-0.6%) and industrials (-0.3%) underperformed while materials (+0.2%) and technology (+0.1%) registered slim gains.
In the technology sector, large cap names like Apple (AAPL 124.24, +0.86), IBM (IBM 160.59, +1.39), and Oracle (ORCL 42.99, +0.06) gained between 0.1% and 0.9% while Accenture (ACN 94.17, +5.69) and Red Hat (RHT 75.36, +6.91) posted respective gains of 6.8% and 10.1% after beating estimates.
The tech sector managed to turn positive despite notable weakness among chipmakers that sent the PHLX Semiconductor Index lower by 1.4%. The industry group struggled after SanDisk (SNDK 66.20, -14.97) lowered its Q1 revenue guidance below analyst estimates.Elsewhere, another high-beta group—biotechnology—pressured the market in the early going, but was able to return near its flat line by the end of the session. TheiShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 340.81, -0.49) will enter tomorrow's affair down 6.8% for the week.
Treasuries spent the day in a steady retreat from their early morning highs. The benchmark 10-yr yield spiked eight basis points to 2.01%.
Today's participation was above average with more than 808 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data was limited to weekly initial claims, which declined to 282,000 from last week's unrevised 291,000 while the consensus expected a reading of 290,000.
After three weeks above 300,000, the 4-week moving average for initial claims has dropped below that threshold, suggesting the claims level is reestablishing a trend below 300,000.
Tomorrow, the third estimate of Q4 GDP will be released at 8:30 ET (consensus 2.4%) while the final reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index for March (consensus 92.0) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.
- Nasdaq Composite +2.7% YTD
- Russell 2000 +2.3% YTD
- S&P 500 -0.1% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.8% YTD
Special Situations: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (BIT: FCA/NTSE: FCAU)
FCA was issued in the beginning of FY14 following the completion of the merger between Fiat and Chrysler, as the parent company of the group. In October shares commenced trading on the NYSE (NYSE: FCAU) and on the MTA (BIT: FCA).
Investments strategy & catalysts
We consider FCA as one of the most interesting short term and long term stories within the Auto manufactures universe, given a number of potential catalysts we identify and would recommend investors to follow: (1) Implementation of the 5 year business plan that was announced following the merger with Chrysler; (2) Ferrari IPO and spin-off in Q315; (3) further euro/US dollar weakness.
FY14-FY18 business plan – Following the merger with Chrysler, FCA management laid out a detailed 5 year Business Plan with clear strategic and financial targets that should deliver significant earnings growth over FY14-FY18. Management targets a 50% increase in volume units and a significant improvement in margins by FY18, mainly through brand globalization and cost synergies. These goals clearly look aggressive and the street is not expecting FCA to fully meet them, indicating that a better than expected implement will lead to a material upside to the stock.
Ferrari IPO - the expected IPO and spin-off of Ferrari will be in the spotlight of investors as it should unlock hidden value by moving the focus to the sum of FCA’s other brands and geographical segments. We assign to Ferrari a valuation of €7 billion which reflects 28% of total equity value, based on 2.5 EV/Sales multiple which we believe is appropriate given Ferrari’s margins and growth prospect vs. the luxury universe. However, Ferrari IPO could be a positive catalyst if investors are prepared to assign Ferrari a full luxury multiple value.
Euro/US dollar weakness – FCA generates more than half of its revenues and earnings in US Dollar while its functional currency is Euro. Further euro/US dollar weakness should have a positive impact on earnings and balance sheet, and on FCA stock.
Valuation
We value FCA at €16.5 per share using a sum of the parts analysis based on 2015E EV/Sales multiple through the company’s seven reportable segments. Our price target includes pension and OPEB obligations, and full conversion of convertible bonds resulting in approx. 10% upside from current levels. We see additional 10%-15% upside if we assign to Ferrari a higher valuation of €9-€10 billion.
Key risks
Main risks include: (1) unexpected drop in global vehicle demand; (2) poor execution of FCA business plan along with significant capex investments that would result in high debt balance; (3) product recalls and warranty obligations which may result in direct costs; (4) strengthening of the euro/US dollar exchange rate.
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Regards,
Dafna Yagur | Head of Research (Israel)
Makor Capital
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