>>> Up
* AMD Raised to Buy at DBS Bank; PT $260
* Anglo American ADRs Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $20
* ArcelorMittal PT Raised to 45 euros from 40 euros at Citi
* EDP Renovaveis ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $34
* EDP Renovaveis Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane
* Ferragamo Raised to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 5.40 euros
* Freeport Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $48
* Harvia Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 40 euros
* Kaspi.kz ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $107
* Know IT Raised to Hold at ABG; PT 110 kronor
* Metso Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 13.50 euros
* Metso Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 13.50 euros
* RWE Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 45.70 euros
* RWE ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $53.30
* Sandvik Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 310 kronor
* Aston Martin Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 52 pence
* Intel Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $24
* Netcompany Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 300 kroner
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 74 kroner
* PSP Swiss Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 135 Swiss francs
* PSP Swiss Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 135 Swiss francs
* Shell ADRs Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* Teck Resources Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$65
* WithSecure Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT 1.30 euros
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* Aixtron Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 13.40 euros
* Alcoa Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $40
* Amrize Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
* COSH NO Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 150 kroner
* Essity Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 300 kronor
* Franchi Umberto Marmi Reinstated Buy at Alantra Capital Markets
* Freeport Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $47
* IBM Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* Vale ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $11
* Valiant Rated New Buy at Octavian; PT 156 Swiss francs
* Ventura Offshore Holding Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets
>>> Call
* Ventura Offshore Holding Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets
>>> Call
Stocks extended their decline from record levels as investors grew cautious about lofty valuations and the billions pouring into artificial intelligence, fueling questions about the pace of recent gains. Asian shares were poised for their biggest decline in two weeks as MSCI’s gauge of global stocks and the S&P 500 index retreated from their record high after a seven-day rally. Equity-index futures for the US edged up, indicating the pause in the gains may be brief. Gold extended its scorching rally to top $4,000 an ounce amid concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown. A gauge of the dollar rose to its highest level in more than a month while the yen slid to its lowest against the US currency since February as Sanae Takaichi’s surprise win as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party continued to weigh.
The S&P 500 slipped along with technology stocks as concerns grew that a $16 trillion surge from its April lows had gone too far. The drop came amid mounting chatter about lofty valuations around artificial intelligence, with the billions poured into building infrastructure fueling fears of a replay of the dot-com crash 25 years ago. The pause in the rally came after investors cheered a wave of AI alliances this month, involving OpenAI, Nvidia Corp. and Asian technology companies such as Hitachi Ltd. and Fujitsu Ltd. The Elon Musk-backed artificial intelligence startup xAI is also raising more financing than initially planned — including an equity investment from Nvidia — to bring its ongoing funding round to $20 billion. In the US, investor optimism has grown heated in recent months, with many seeming too busy chasing the upside to worry about risks like a US government shutdown and stretched valuations. Some Wall Street pros noted that having multiple large technology stocks surge by double-digits in quick succession could be a sign that valuations have become disconnected from underlying fundamentals. Billionaire Ray Dalio — who founded the hedge-fund firm Bridgewater Associates — expressed reservations about the scale of the stock market’s recent rise, which has stoked concern about an AI bubble as valuations have soared. “This is something that feels frothy to me,” Dalio said. Dalio sees gold as a strong store of value at a time of rising government debt burdens, geopolitical tensions, and the erosion of confidence in the stability of national currencies. Concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown added fresh momentum to gold’s surge, with its 52% gain this year putting the traditional safe haven on course for its strongest annual advance since 1979.
Read More: OpenAI, Nvidia Fuel $1 Trillion AI Market With Circular Deals While concerns are legitimate and an ever-present risk, there was no fresh information that came to light overnight to really threaten the bull market, wrote Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne. Even as there are pockets of risk, including in Asia and the US, “we are not really seeing a broad-based risk of a reversal yet, so we do think the trade could potentially continue for the time,” Rupal Agarwal, a quantitative strategist at Sanford C Bernstein, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. ttention in Asia was also on the yen, which weakened to as low as 152.34 against the dollar, while moving to a fresh record against the euro since the common currency’s inception in 1999. The markets curbed their expectations for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike in the aftermath of the victory by the pro-stimulus lawmaker. On Wednesday, Japan’s wages rose at the slowest pace in three months with real pay extending its falling streak.
Nikkei Hang Seng CSI Shanghai Shenzen
Eur$ CNH CNY JPY GBP CHF RUB TRY WTI$ Gold BTC ETH
S&P Nasdaq EuroStoxx FTSE Dax SMI
Macro :
- Trump Hasn’t Decided Yet on Fannie, Freddie IPO, Pulte Says
- Denmark Is Close to Buying 16 More F-35 Jets, Berlingske Says
Keep an eye on :
- ABBN SW : ABB to Sell Robotics Unit to SoftBank For $5.375B Ent. Value
- ALC SW : Staar Drops as Holder Defender Capital Opposes Sale to Alcon
- AST US : Starlink Rival AST SpaceMobile Gets Rare Sell After 237% Rally
- NDA GY : Aurubis Sees 2026 Pretax Operating Profit EU300M to EU400M
- BMW GY : BMW Cuts Annual Guidance on Weak China Sales, Tariff Costs
- LLY US : Lilly Hires Ex-FDA Official as Infectious Disease Head (Correct)
- ENX FP : Euronext Sept. Total Cash Market Transaction Value M/M +21%
- GIVN SW : Givaudan Invests CHF187m in New Production Facility in Ohio
- GLEN LN : Glencore Gets ‘Lifeline’ from Australia to Prop Up Smelter (1)
- GLV ID : Glenveagh Holder Offers 5% of Issued Shares
- GLV ID : Glenveagh Holder Offers 5% of Issued Shares
- GOOGL US : Google Set to Invest $10b in India Data Center Cluster: ET
- JNJ US : J&J Says FDA Approves Simponi for Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis
- HL/ LN : Peter Hargreaves to Step Down From Hargreaves Lansdown Board: FT
- LDO IM : Leonardo Formalizes Five-Year €1.8 Billion Loan
- LCID US : Lucid Shares Sink After Third Quarter Deliveries Disappoint
- NDX1 GY : Nordex Gets Order of 236 MW for Wind Projects in North America
- OBCK GY : Ottobock IPO : Ottobock Sets Final IPO Price at €66/Share
- PGHN SW : Mercuria, Partners Group Pledge US Energy Investments: Reuters
- RI FP : India Regulator Approves Tilaknagar Buy of Pernod Ricard Unit
- RI FP : India Regulator Approves Tilaknagar Buy of Pernod Ricard Unit
- REvolut IPO : Revolut’s Billionaire CEO Shifts Residence From UK to Mideast
- SALM NO : Salmar Prelim 3Q Harvest Beats Estimates
- SAN FP : Sanofi’s AlphaMedixTM Hit All Phase 2 Primary Efficacy Endpoints
- TGS NO : TGS 3Q Contract Seismic Allocation 45%
- UBSG SW : UBS Shelves Risk Transfer Deal Tied to $2.5 Billion of Loans
- UBXN SW : Janus Henderson Said to Oppose Advent’s $1.3 Billion U-blox Bid
- UMI BB : Umicore Starts Sale of Permanent Gold Inventories
- xAI : Nvidia to Invest in Musk’s xAI as Part of $20 Billion Funding
- Lloyds (LLD TH) +3.5%
- Puma (PUM TH) +2.7%
- Nokia (NOA3 TH) +1.3%
- Umicore (NVJP TH) +1.2%
- Umicore Starts Sale of Permanent Gold Inventories
- Elisa (EIA TH) -1.4%
- Aurubis (NDA TH) -1.4%
- RENK Group (R3NK TH) -1.6%
- Vestas (VWSB TH) -1.6%
- ASML (ASME TH) -1.8%
- Norsk Hydro (NOH1 TH) -1.9%
- Norsk Hydro Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 74 kroner
- ASM Intl (AVS TH) -2.4%
- Mercedes (MBG TH) -2.5%
- Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -2.9%
- Sartorius Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 225 euros
- BMW (BMW TH) -3.3%
- BMW Issues Warning on China Weakness, Tariff Costs: Street Wrap
DAX:
- Mercedes (MBG TH) -2.6%
- BMW (BMW TH) -3.1%
- BMW Cuts Annual Guidance on Weak China Sales, Tariff Costs (1)
MDAX:
- Puma (PUM TH) +2.7%
- Aixtron (AIXA TH) -0.8%
- Aixtron Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 13.40 euros
- Aurubis (NDA TH) -1%
- Aurubis Sees 2026 Pretax Operating Profit EU300M to EU400M
- RENK Group (R3NK TH) -2%
- Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -2.1%
- Sartorius Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 225 euros
SDAX:
- Kloeckner (KCO TH) +0.9%
- Siltronic (WAF TH) -0.7%
After Hours Summary: PENG -13% lower on earnings; OMI +12.5% on deal to sell its P&H segment; QS +6.9% higher on joint development agreement with Murata
After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: OMI +12.5% (to sell its P&H segment to Platinum Equity for $375 mln), QS +6.9% (joint development agreement with Murata), IMXI +5.7% (expiration of HSR waiting period for WU acquisition of IMXI), EFX +2.6% (to sell EFX credit scores at a price more than 50% below FICO), CLPT +2.3% (results from brain tumor laser therapy study), PRIM +2.1% (names new CEO), FRPT +1.2% (CFO to step down, reaffirms FY25 outlook), TRU +0.7% (in response to EFX price cut), LEGN +0.7% (LEGN and Janssen Pharma enter into component and supply agreement), CPB +0.3% (names new CFO), DAY +0.2% (expands collaboration with MSFT; announces Dayforce AI Workspace; launches Strategic Workforce Planning; introduces new Dayforce AI Agents), LTC +0.2% (sale of two skilled nursing centers for $42 mln), BTBT +0.2% (Sept metrics), WU +0.1% (expiration of HSR waiting period for WU acquisition of IMXI), CRM +0.1% (refuses to pay hackers over data extortion attempts, according to Bloomberg)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: PENG -13% (also authorizes new $75 mln share repurchase program)
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ESPR -18.4% (stock offering), JOBY -8.8% (files prospectus supplement for $500 mln offering), IREN -4.8% ($875 mln convertible notes offering), NMRK -4.2% (acquries RealFoundations), FICO -3.8% (in response to EFX price cut), TWNP -2.7% (stock offering by selling shareholder), CIFR -1% (reports Sept operating data), ACHC -0.8% (names new CFO), BLSH -0.5% (Sept metrics), GME -0.3% (distributes warrants), JNJ -0.2% (LEGN and Janssen Pharma enter into component and supply agreement)
Hedge fund billionaire says 2025 is ‘so much more potentially explosive than 1999’ because of the way bull markets always end
Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, founder and CIO of Tudor Investment Corporation, has raised alarms about the state of financial markets in 2025, drawing pointed comparisons to the explosive tech-driven boom of 1999, while clarifying that today’s environment could be “so much more potentially explosive.” The reason why has to do with what the market veteran knows about how bull markets always play out.
Speaking to Andrew Ross Sorkin of The New York Times‘ DealBook on CNBC’s Squawk Box ahead of the upcoming Robin Hood Foundation investor conference, Jones described today’s investment climate as uncannily similar to the one that preceded the 2000 dot-com bust.
“It feels exactly like 1999,” he said, implying that the market was acting like the famous Prince song with the lyrics: “Party Like It’s 1999.” He urged investors to position themselves like it’s October 1999, when the Nasdaq doubled in a matter of months before collapsing, a pattern Jones sees as increasingly plausible today. The difference is that this could be even worse than the dot-com bust, he said.
Jones told Sorkin his concerns had to do with investor behavior in every bull market, specifically at the end, when the cliff is nearing and nobody is sure where it is.
The stampede
Jones underscored that in every bull market, the “greatest price appreciation is always the 12 months preceding the top,” like what happened after October 1999. For investors, he said, the challenge is timing: “If you don’t play it, you’re missing out on the juice. If you do play it, you … have to have really happy feet because there will be a really, really bad end to it,” he said, seeming to refer to the American football phrase for when a quarterback is antsy and tiptoeing around the quarterback, rather than standing their ground.
“If anything, now is so much more potentially explosive than 1999,” Tudor Jones argued, citing the backdrop of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. He noted the Fed is set up for several rate cuts, with monetary policy taking the economy to a real interest rate of zero, meaning incentives to invest and spend given such a low cost of capital. In terms of fiscal policy, the Congress had a budget surplus in 1999 and today it has a 6% budget deficit. “That fiscal/monetary combination is a brew that we haven’t seen since, I guess the postwar period, early ’50s, something like that,” he said. “And that was crazy times, right? Coming out of the war.”
Still, Jones insisted he wasn’t calling a bubble or predicting a crash.
“I’m not suggesting that the train is going to crash,” he clarified. “I’m suggesting that we’re in a period that’s conducive for massive price appreciation in a variety of assets.”
The ‘Boldly Go’ Era: Fiscal Recklessness and AI
Where Jones did see a bubble was in sovereign debt, labeling government bonds the “biggest bubble,” with massive global deficits staved off, for now, by an ongoing easing cycle and anticipatory flows into fixed income.
“We’re kind of boldly going where no man has ever gone before,” he said, borrowing a Star Trek reference to capture the unprecedented mix of easy money and ballooning sovereign obligations. He foresees a reckoning when the current cycle of rate cuts ends and “all that demand has been pushed forward.”
When asked about the “circularity” of financing in the AI space, with Nvidia, OpenAI, AMD, Oracle, [hotlink]Microsoft,[/hotlink] and others all having somewhat interwoven data-center deals with each other, Jones agreed. “The circularity makes me nervous, I would say.” But he added that in broad terms, the way he thinks of it is the markets are mostly concerned about inflation, and gold is a big winner (the precious metal in fact has continually set record highs in 2025, nearing $4,000 an ounce as of Monday). Jones did not mention the company Nvidia throughout his interview.
Jones also zoomed out for a minute to talk about the race for the fourth quarter.
“The race, realistically, is certainly to the end of the year, because that’s when everyone marks institutionally, and then you have to figure out what’s going to go on in next year,” he said.
These remarks echoed a separate interview given to Fortune by Bank of America Research’s senior analyst Vivek Arya.
“I think we are at that point of the year and this isn’t just specific to [2025], we have seen this in prior years right around this time where people get justifiably very nervous about what is going to be the amount of spending next year,” Arya said.
As soon as the new year starts, Arya added, “people get comfortable with spending and then it starts to get back to fundamentals again.” He added that there’s a “pecularity” about the fourth-quarter season “where people naturally get nervous.” Fortune has separately reported on Owen Lamont’s “panic season” and “harvest time” thesis, which is that markets suffer from too many traders going on vacation between August and October, a legacy that dates back to America’s agricultural roots and how markets functioned around the harvesting of certain crops.
For now, Jones told CNBC, the music is still playing. But the warning is clear: “History rhymes a lot.” For investors, 2025 could be a year defined by explosive gains—and the risk that the end of the party arrives sooner, and more violently, than most expect. He added he’s not certain whether 1999 will be entirely replaced, “but I think all the ingredients are in place, and certainly from a trading standpoint … it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck. It’s probably not a chicken, right?”