>>> What to look at this week end - 11th & 12th of July 2015

Weekly Performance
Dow +0.17% S&P-0.01% Nasdaq-0.23% EuroStoxx +2.53% FTSE+1.33% CAC+1.97% DAX+2.33% Ibex+2.28% MIB+1.91% SMI +2.48% Nikkei-3.70% Hang Seng -4.46% Shanghai+5.8% Ibovespa-0.97%

The Chinese market meltdown and Greece's bailout brinksmanship drove heightened levels of volatility in global markets this week. In China, the authorities have frozen markets in order to save them. To stem panic selling, trading in over half of A-share stocks were suspended, and investors with stakes exceeding 5% were ordered to maintain their positions. Greece voted 'No' in the referendum last weekend, setting the table for what could be the final round of negotiations between Athens and its creditors. Stocks and bonds around the world see-sawed on headlines out of both crises and the VIX volatility index came very close to 20, its highest level in five months. As the week closed, US treasury bonds posted their biggest two-day selloff in two years as the Greek and Chinese crises showed signs of stabilizing. The dollar saw relatively relaxed trading, with EUR/USD bottoming around 1.0920 on Tuesday before trading up to 1.1220 on yet another round of Hellenic hope. For all the week's gyrations, the NYSE edged up 0.2%, the Nasdaq fell 0.2%, and the S&P ended essentially unchanged.


Macro :
- Swiss Oppose SNB Reintroduction of CHF Cap, SZ Survey Finds
- WTI Crude May Fall Below $50 on China, Greece, Iran Risks: BofA
- Greece, Europe in ’Amicable Split’ Not Worst Outcome: Kazimir (Slovak Finance Minister)
- Greece Bailout to Be 74b Euros Based on Creditors’ Eval: AFP
- Germany won’t spare Greek pain – it has an interest in breaking us (The Guardian) http://bit.ly/1JVM7vZ
- France Should Ease Taxes on Capital Gains, Paris Europlace Says
- Schaeuble Suggests 5-Yr Grexit, Humanitarian Support, FAS Says
- Renzi to Press Germany to Reach Deal With Greece: Messaggero
- Progress Made, Finland Fin. Min. Stubb Says After Eurogroup

Keep an eye on :
- A2A IM : A2A and Linea appoint advisors for merger - Il sole 24 Ore
- AF FP : France Needs Strong Air France to Lift Tourist Economy: Club Med
- AAPL US : Google, Apple Unlikely to Go Into Auto Industry, Fiat CEO Says
- BARC LN : Barclays Considers Acquisition to Help Split Off Retail Arm: FT
- GBF GY : Bilfinger mandates Deutsche Bank to handle sale of Power business
- BPTY LN : 888 to Meet With Bwin.party to Thwart GVC Bid, S. Times Reports
- DL NA : David Einhorn Holds 5% Stake in Delta Lloyd: AFM Filing
- FCA IM : Ferrari IPO Filing Due in Days, Fiat CEO Marchionne Says, May Consider Secondary Listing in Milan for Ferrari
- IAG LN : EU ‘Closely Assessing’ IAG-Aer Lingus Deal, Vestager Says
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Says Diabetes Treatment Met Primary Objective
- UG FP : Peugeot Citroen 1H Global Unit Sales Rose 0.4% to 1.55m Vehicles
- POST IM : Poste Italiane May Limit Investor Stakes to 5% Before IPO: Sole
- RFI AV : Raiffeisen CEO Says Franc to Stay Strong, SNB Needs Reform: SamS
- RBS LN : RBS Said Seeking to Sell Greek Shipping, Loans Ops: Reuters http://reut.rs/1eNWILC
- REP SM : Repsol’s Algarve Exploration Project Is Delayed, Expresso Says
- SRG IM : Snam CEO Sees 20% Investment in TAP Valued at EU400m: Corriere
- SYNN VX : Monsanto’s Goal of Syngenta Deal Isn’t to Fix Weakness: BZ
- TEF SM : Telefonica, LaLiga Reach EU600M Accord on 2015/16 Soccer Rights
- TESB BB : Picanol Unit Buys Additional EU0.43m of Tessenderlo Chemie Stock
- TIT IM : Tel. Italia Close to Content Deal With Mediaset: Repubblica
- DG FP : Vinci Buying 20% in Constructora Conconcreto
- YOOX IM : Yoox merger with Net-A-Porter to be scrutinised by UK regulator http://bit.ly/1O3Mtix

FT : Brevan Howard abandons Geneva and returns to London

Brevan Howard abandons Geneva and returns to London

Brevan Howard is moving some of its most senior traders back to London from Geneva, reversing a high-profile decision by the $27bn hedge fund to leave the UK and bucking concerns that the City’s status as Europe’s leading hub for the industry was under threat.
The decision comes as a number of other large hedge funds are also planning to expand or launch in the British capital, in a sign that international investors continue to gravitate to London.

Hedge fund managers and investors argue that low tax rates have failed to win over traders to the merits of life in Switzerland, with many leaving their families behind in London.
Brevan Howard’s British born co-founder Alan Howard led the charge by moving to Geneva in 2010, in the wake of the introduction of tighter EU regulation of hedge funds. More than half of his staff and most of his senior traders followed him within three years.
But Brevan Howard has started to brief investors that it plans to move some of its fund managers back to London, people familiar with the hedge fund said. Brevan Howard declined to comment.
The departure from London to Geneva of Mr Howard and Michael Platt, head of British hedge fund BlueCrest, prompted some in the industry to fret that London would start to haemorrhage billionaire traders to the Cantons of Switzerland. While Mr Howard remains in Geneva, Mr Platt last year relocated to Jersey.
“They think it will be fine leaving London, and that they can come back and visit all the time and that the family will adjust,” said one big investor in hedge funds. “A lot of these traders have just got quite bored”.
London’s hedge fund industry is expanding as US managers hire employees and new funds launch. Steven Cohen, who closed his London office after his then-named SAC Capital admitted to insider trading in 2013, is considering returning to the City, according to an email sent by his family office to its staff.

Chris Rokos, a former star trader at Brevan Howard, is in the process of launching what is expected to be one of the largest new hedge funds in Europe since the financial crisis.
Other new launches include Everett Capital Advisors, being launched by an ex-employee of the hedge fund Taconic, and another fund being set up by traders from QVT.
The number of new hedge fund launches in Europe, most of which are based in London, was 576 in 2014 compared with 333 in the US, according to the data provider HFR, with new launches in Europe accounting for more than half of the global total since 2010.

FT : France and Germany split over bid to break Greece deadlock

France and Germany split over bid to break Greece deadlock

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble (C) chats with unidentified officials during a euro zone finance ministers' meeting on the situation in Greece, in Brussels, Belgium, July 12, 2015. REUTERS/Eric VidalStark differences remain between eurozone finance ministers as they met on Sunday to discuss Greece’s bailout plan©ReutersSpain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos (L) chats with Italy's Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan during an euro zone finance ministers' meeting on the situation in Greece, in Brussels, Belgium, July 12, 2015. Euro zone leaders will fight to the finish to keep near-bankrupt Greece in the euro zone on Sunday after the European Union's chairman cancelled a planned summit of all 28 EU leaders that would have been needed in case of a "Grexit". REUTERS/Eric VidalDiscussions in Brussels are expected to last until late into Sunday night©ReutersThere is a growing divide between France and Germany over Greece’s proposed bailout plan©AFPGerman chancellor Angela Merkel has warned there will not be an ‘agreement at any cost’©EPAGreek prime minister Alexis Tsipras said he was ‘ready for a compromise’, adding that an agreement could be reached ‘if all parties want it’©EPATalks have been complicated after Finland’s True Finns threatened to pull out of the coalition government if a Greek bailout goes ahead©EPAIn Greece, people remain anxious about the outcome of the negotiations©GettyGreek politicians have taken to local media to denounce EU hardliners©Getty
Next Thumbnails
Germany on Sunday night heightened the pressure on Greece to implement bolder economic reforms in order to secure its place in the eurozone, despite attempts by France to broker a compromise.
Fraught negotiations in Brussels over a €53.3bn bailout package at the weekend created fresh uncertainty for Greece’s future in Europe’s monetary union after finance ministers failed to agree a way out of the biggest crisis to face Europe since 2012.

However, a fragile compromise was emerging late on Sunday under which Athens would pass tough new reform laws, including on pensions, by Wednesday and prepare further rapid reforms this month.
But it was unclear whether this deal could be implemented in time to satisfy German chancellor Angela Merkel and other critics — or forestall Greece’s financial collapse.
French president François Hollande pledged to get an agreement and warned that at stake was not just whether Greece stayed in Europe but “our conception of Europe”.
But a grim Ms Merkel said: “There’s not going to be an agreement at any cost.” Eurozone leaders, she added, were considering “nothing more and nothing less” than the preconditions for a Greece rescue by Europe’s bailout fund — a stance that appeared to cast doubt on whether a full accord could soon be reached.

The Franco-German impasse threatened to strain Ms Merkel and Mr Hollande’s recent efforts to bolster the EU’s key political alliance. However, the two leaders’ comments also left room for manoeuvre, perhaps allowing a conditional deal that would pave the way to bailout negotiations if Greece delivers on the promised reform legislation.
Highlighting the drama, Luxembourg has warned Germany that pressing for Grexit would bring “a profound conflict” with France and “catastrophe for Europe”. Jean Asselborn, foreign minister, told the Süddeutsche newspaper that it would be “fatal for Germany’s reputation in the EU and the world” if Berlin did not seize the chance offered by the Greek reform promises.

WSJ : Greek Shipping Industry Frets Over Higher Taxes

Greek Shipping Industry Frets Over Higher Taxes

Firms could decide to relocate if measures are implemented

ATHENS—In its negotiations with international creditors, this seafaring nation says now it will do what it has resisted doing for years—raise taxes on its globe-spanning shipping industry.

And that has put the sector in a spin.

“Greek owners will do what needs to be done to stay competitive,” said Michael Boudouroglou, who runs Greece-based, New York-listed Box Ships Inc. and Paragon Shipping Inc., with a combined fleet of 25 container and dry-bulk vessels.

As part of bigger talks over a possible debt financing deal with its international creditors, Greece has said it is willing to increase tonnage tax for Greece-based shipping companies, and will consider cutting other special tax advantages the industry has long enjoyed.

Those benefits include no taxes on profits from shipping operations, and no taxes on ship sales. Over the years, that has helped keep a big chunk of the global shipping industry based here.

Greek owners operate almost 20% of the global fleet of merchant ships, and more than half of the European Union’s fleet. The industry makes up 7.5% of the Greek economy and employs around 200,000 people.

But it has also been in the cross hairs amid the current crisis. Greek shipowners have already offered to voluntarily pay an additional €420 million ($468 million) in tonnage tax from 2014 to 2017. Under fresh pressure by its creditors, Athens now says that isn’t enough. It now plans not only to further increase the tonnage tax, but also gradually withdraw the special tax breaks.

Several owners said over the weekend that if the new increases come into force, they plan to set up operations in other shipping capitals such as London, Singapore and Dubai.

Over the years, countries such as the U.K., Ireland and Cyprus have tried to lure Greek owners, moving to boost their dwindling national shipping registries.

“I am in Greece because I love my country, but I won’t stay around to see my business being ruined,” said one owner of a big Greek tanker fleet.

J.P. Morgan analyst Noah Parquette wrote that any new taxes on shipping companies “would likely force many shipowners to set up outside the country, negatively impacting the economy and potentially disrupting a tradition of shipping in Greece that goes back thousands of years.”

(BN) Greece Given 72 Hours to Win Trust by Passing Bailout Laws

Greece Given 72 Hours to Win Trust by Passing Bailout Laws (1)
2015-07-12 17:20:41.799 GMT


(Updates with summit progress in seventh paragraph. For
more on the Greek crisis, click here.)

By Radoslav Tomek, Ott Ummelas and Karl Stagno Navarra
(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was given
three days to push new austerity measures through parliament and
keep alive Greece’s chances of staying in the euro.
Finance ministers meeting in Brussels demanded Greece enact
economic reforms before opening detailed negotiations on an aid
package of at least 74 billion euros ($83 billion). They left it
to the region’s leaders, who started their own session a few
hours later, to pin down how far those measures should go. If
Tsipras misses that deadline, Greece may be suspended from the
currency union, Finnish Finance Minister Alexander Stubb said.
“Greece is being given exactly two choices,” Stubb said.
“It’s a rather black-and-white choice.”
Riled by six months of personal attacks and contradictory
messages from Athens, euro-area policy makers are forcing
Tsipras to overcome the credibility gap they said was a key
hurdle to more loans. They’re no longer willing to take him at
his word.
“The situation is extremely difficult if you consider the
economic situation in Greece and the worsening in the last few
months, but what has been lost also in terms of trust and
reliability,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters.
With Greek banks rationing cash and the European Central
Bank reviewing how long it can keep the country’s financial
system alive, Tsipras won a stay of execution as he arrived at
the summit when a Sunday meeting of the 28 European Union
leaders was canceled. The full group of leaders would only have
gathered to discuss how to handle Greece’s exit from the euro,
Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat said.
The leaders’ summit began with presentations on the state
of play from officials including Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the
finance ministers’ leader, European Central Bank President Mario
Draghi and Tsipras himself, according to an EU official. The
leaders then set out their own positions before they broke for
bilateral meetings. Tsipras will hold a session with Merkel and
French President Francois Hollande, a Greek official said.

Demonstrating Commitment

Creditors are using the calendar as leverage on Greece.
Tsipras’s predecessors were given months to enact economic
reforms after tapping the first bailout loans in 2010.
Greece is asking for 22 billion euros by the end of August
to cover its immediate needs and as much as 86 billion in total,
Maltese Finance Minister Edward Scicluna said in an interview.
The country owes the ECB about 3.5 billion euros on July 20 and
missed a payment of about $1.7 billion to the International
Monetary Fund June 30.
“I’d like to see them demonstrating starting tomorrow in
their parliament they’re serious about implementing the changes,
legislative and structural, that need to be put in place,”
Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny said. “And there are many of
them.”
Comments in Greece suggested the pressure was having its
intended effect.
An unsigned commentary in the Sunday edition of Avgi
newspaper, seen as a Syriza party mouthpiece, said Tsipras must
seal a deal, then address political fallout that is “driving
the country to elections in a short time.”
“The country has only the road of realism,” Kostis
Hatzidakis, an opposition New Democracy lawmaker and former
minister, said on Skai TV on Sunday. “The time for criticisms
will come, but we have to escape the eye of the storm first.”

Bailout Collateral

Greece has already caved to creditors’ demands, with
lawmakers endorsing Tsipras’s plan to increase sales taxes and
cut pensions in the early hours of Saturday. The vote marked an
abrupt turnaround for the Greek leader, who’d won an anti-
austerity referendum a week earlier accusing the rest of the
euro area of trying to blackmail his country.
“I am ready for an honest compromise,” Tsipras told
reporters as he arrived. “We owe it to the people of Europe
that want a united, not divided, Europe. We can reach an
agreement tonight if the parties involved want it.”
Some ministers on Sunday wanted Greece to place about 50
billion euros of state assets into an independent company that
could serve as collateral against aid loans, Luxembourg’s
finance chief Pierre Gramegna told reporters.
“It would remain in Greek hands, but it would create more
assurances,” Gramegna said. “There is great hesitation from
the Greek side and now the heads of state and government have to
choose.”

For Related News and Information:
Greece Bailout Optimism Sparks Slump in Europe’s Haven Bonds
Half-Century of European Integration at Stake in Greece Meeting
Euro Climbs Most in Two Years Versus Yen on Greece’s Bailout Bid
Top Stories: TOP <GO>
Most-read Greek news: MNI GRE 1W <GO>

--With assistance from Jonathan Stearns, Esteban Duarte, Kevin
Costelloe, David De Jong, Rebecca Christie, Patrick Donahue, Ian
Wishart, James G. Neuger, Mark Deen and Stephanie Bodoni in
Brussels, Nikos Chrysoloras and Marcus Bensasson in Athens,
Angela Cullen in Frankfurt and Elco van Groningen in Amsterdam.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Radoslav Tomek in Brussels at +421-2-5292-1227 or
rtomek@bloomberg.net;
Ott Ummelas in Brussels at +372-663-1128 or
oummelas@bloomberg.net;
Karl Stagno Navarra in Brussels at +39-645-206-300 or
ksnavarra@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Hertling at +44-20-3525-9330 or
jhertling@bloomberg.net
Ben Sills, Kevin Costelloe

>>> Yoox merger with Net-A-Porter to be scrutinised by UK regulator

Yoox merger with Net-A-Porter to be scrutinised by UK regulator http://bit.ly/1O3Mtix

The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority announced on 10 July that it is considering whether the proposed merger of online fashion retailers Yoox and Net-A-Porter will prove detrimental to competition in Britain.

The regulator is inviting comments on the prospective deal from interested parties.

Regulatory Authority Press Release

(BFW) Greek Capital Controls to Stay for at Least Six Months: Times

Greek Capital Controls to Stay for at Least Six Months: Times
2015-07-12 11:26:35.586 GMT


By Matthew Boyle
(Bloomberg) -- Banks, finance ministry officials meet
Monday to consider options incl. reducing 4 main banks to 2,
creation of bad bank for toxic loans, possible forced losses for
depositors, Sunday Times says, citing officials in Athens that
it didn’t identify.

* Officials also expected to approve new capital controls
* ~EU15b needed to recapitalize banks
* Greece’s top 4 lenders have <EU500m in deposits, only enough
to last to Monday
* NOTE: Greek Bank Deposits May Run Out by Sunday on Outflows:
Moody’s


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Matthew Boyle in London at +44-20-3525-8675 or
mboyle20@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Matthew Boyle at +44-20-3525-8675 or
mboyle20@bloomberg.net

>>> Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Cannot blindly trust Greek promises

Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Cannot blindly trust Greek promises - financial press
- Says: "At the end of last year we had hope but in the last months, this hope has been destroyed in an incredible way... Definitely we cannot trust promises... Up until now we always talked about ending the programme but now we are talking about a full three-year program."
- Latest proposals still long way from being sufficient.

>>> Greece : Reportedly Finland parliament will refuse to accept any new rescue

Reportedly Finland parliament will refuse to accept any new rescue package for Greece and will push for a Grexit 
- Finland press Parliamentary spokesmen declined to comment on the report which indicates that the current govt has agreed to this stance after the legislature's second largest party, the Finns Party (eurosceptics), threatened to topple the government if it supports a third bailout deal for Greece.

Finland is one of at least eight EMU countries that will require its national parliament to approve any new bailout arrangement with Greece.

>>> Barrons Saturday summary: positive on GRMN and AER Cover story: Bonds, once

Barrons Saturday summary: positive on GRMN and AER 

Cover story: Bonds, once seen as a way to preserve wealth, provide cash flow, and offer price appreciation don't offer much income these days, and some investors are likely to lose money on them; Investors who hold individual bonds to maturity are insulated, but bond mutual funds and ETFs, which don't do so, may end up selling into a declining market; Investors withdrew a net $17B in June from taxable and municipal-bond funds, which could hint at a larger exit to come and a fall in bond funds.

Features: 1) Positive on GRMN: Company is moving beyond its car-navigation devices into wearables, and its ability to innovate could help lift the stock 35% or more during the next 12 months; 2) Positive on AER: Chief Aengus Kelly is shareholder focused, and the shares look undervalued as company continues to benefit from its acquisition of AIG's air-leasing business; 3) Barron's reports that 73 of its bullish stock picks this year rose an average of 3.7% in the first half, compared with a 1.1% decline for the S&P 500; 4) Positive on Fidelity, Citadel: Fidelity Brokerage Services averaged the best pricing among brokers who voluntarily reported performance measures to the SEC, while Citadel Securities had the best pricing among wholesale market makers.

Tech Trader: Problems in China may have an impact on the tech sector, but "there are already enough reasons to sit out this market and wait for the dust to settle," says Tiernan Ray, including high valuations; A slump in Chinese consumption isn't likely to be material to the long-term outlook for companies such as AAPL and SWKS.

Trader: "It's unlikely that earnings will do anything to trip up stocks, since analysts have already reduced expectations"; Cautious on WTW: Company's shrinking user base means less word-of-mouth on social media, while a recovery would mean spending more on paid advertising, which it can't afford-but a strategic buyer could build on the brand and the user base; Growth stocks such as AMZN and NFLX outperformed value stocks in the first half of this year, but that won't likely continue in the second half of the year.

Small Caps: Positive on EQC: Sam Zell's office-property real estate investment trust, which owns 100 buildings in major cities, trades well below net-asset value and plans to boost its balance sheet by selling its least desirable properties.

Mutual Fund Quarterly: Interview with Pat Dorsey of Dorsey Asset Management, which invests for foundations, endowments, and wealthy individuals and looks for assets outside the U.S.; Positive on JNS: After a decade of problems, firm has begun to thrive under the leadership of chief executive Dick Weil, who took the reins in 2010; The Morningstar/Barron's ninth annual Alternative Investment Survey found that many advisors still use hedge fund-like investments, especially long/short and multistrategy approaches; Positive on EV: Pending approval, firm will offer a new kind of fund that promises to cut investor costs while protecting fund managers from predatory trading; International and European funds outperformed U.S. stock funds during the second quarter, while rate-sensitive funds stumbled.

Follow-Up: Barron's editors say that "long-term investors counting on the eventual liberalization of China's stock market are better off focusing on the H shares of Chinese companies than the A shares"; Positive on Barnes & Noble Education ("BNED"): BKS' college-bookstore spinoff "could be an enticing growth story as it adds stores and broadens its product offerings," and success will benefit Barnes & Noble shareholders. 

European Trader: Greek leaders seem prepared to take the steps necessary for the country to remain part of the eurozone, but their proposals may not be sufficient to lead to another bailout.

Asian Trader: Positive on BIDU, Tencent, BABA, JD: Chinese Internet stocks are holding their value despite market turmoil in China because of the fact their shares are held by global investors who value their large market caps, growth, and margins.

Emerging Markets: The $100B New Development Bank founded by Brics countries should be lending soon be lending money, but it remains to be seen how the five countries will share power and choose projects.

Commodities: If natural gas storage runs out as autumn brings mild weather and low demand for gas-fired electricity and heat, there could be a glut with no buyers.

Streetwise: "Forget Greece. The big issue for global financial markets is the Chinese stock-market crash and the frenzied efforts by Beijing to quell the crisis," and the damage is likely to spread if the government can't stop the bleeding.